Chicago Massacre Weekend: Wash U and Case Visit

D3TennisGreek: If you are a fan of central region tennis, then you must be giddy with excitement. The region’s top three teams – Chicago, Case, and Wash U – will face one another this weekend in the Windy City, and there are major UAA seeding and Pool C implications with each result. Because I’m a little short on time, and I know that you all would rather hear D3Central’s thoughts, I’ll provide brief overviews of each contest while D3Central will enlighten you with his famed match-by-match analyses. Sound good? Great!

Friday, 3:45 pm Central: #5 Chicago vs. #6 Case at XS Tennis, Chicago, IL

D3TennisGreek: Not very many people would have expected Case to be ranked #6 in the country at this point in the season. Yet, per usual, the Spartans surprise us by pulling out unexpected victories. On the other hand, the Maroons have done about as well as I expected them to. Some of the other bloggers had Chicago penciled in as the early NCAA favorite, but I had a feeling they would be hovering around No. 5 given their youth. This year, the Maroons have lost to other top tier teams/NCAA championship contenders, but have beaten some good teams like Trinity TX. Anyway, looking at this match specifically, Chicago defeated Case at the Spartan’s home indoor courts during ITA Indoors, which should be good confidence boost heading into this match. Playing Case on their home courts is always tough because the Spartans and their fans bring a lot of energy. I’m extremely interested to see what happens in doubles. Doubles has been interesting for the Maroons this season. At Indoors, Chicago took 2-1 leads over good doubles teams like Trinity TX and Case, but they have also been swept by CMS and Emory. Certainly, singles is Chicago’s strength, but they can’t afford to be swept in doubles by any team to end the season. The tandem that Chicago has been trying to figure out all season long is No. 3. To elaborate, the list of No. 3 doubles teams Coach Jay Tee has paired this season is long — Gordon Zhang/Sven Kranz, Luke Tsai/Michael Selin, Luke Tsai/Bobby Bethke, Gordon Zhang/Luke Tsai, Sven Kranz/Bobby Bethke. So, who’s it going to be? Will we finally see Max Hawkins back in the lineup, like I thought we would for Chicago’s spring break California trip? Interestingly, as D3Central has pointed out, Case’s original No. 3 team of James Fojtasek and Phil Gruber has moved up to No. 2, so Chicago’s 3 team can prove itself. Of course, another match you should keep a close eye on is at No. 1 doubles where Nick Chua and David Liu go up against CJ Krimbrill and Stuerke. The Chicago team has already beaten the Case duo twice this season, but could the third time be the charm for Case?  This paragraph is getting so long, so a couple quick notes about singles. In my opinion, Tee is now using what I have always thought would be Chicago’s strongest singles lineup. As D3Central predicts below, Case could win at 1 and 4 because Krimbill has Chua’s number, and Louis Stuerke has been playing great singles. Quick random note: Case plays Elmhurst Friday morning. I’m assuming a lot of the Spartans sit out, so I hope everyone is physically fit. Ultimately, I predict a close 6-3 win for Chicago.

D3Central: Since I am doing the match by match analysis, I will keep my intro short. The only thing I want to mention about this match initially is that Chicago beat Case 7-2 earlier this season at Indoors, but only 3 of the 9 match-ups are the same heading into this time around. There has been a lot of lineup movement by both teams and match-ups can always make a difference. Playing this match indoors favors the Maroons in my opinion as well. Also of note, Case plays Elmhurst in the morning. I hope that they come out with a full doubles lineup, sweep, and rest everyone else that typically plays singles because they need to be fresh for the night match.

Chua/Liu vs. Krimbill/Stuerke: The Chicago tandem edged out Case at the top dubs spot in meeting one, but I look for Case to turn the tables on them this time. It really could go either way and Chicago seems to have had Case’s number at the top spot going back to last season and at ITAs, but my gut thinks Case wins this in a tiebreaker. 9-8(5)

Pei/Leung vs. Fojtasek/Gruber: Whether or not Case actually does the right thing and continues to have Fojtasek and Gruber play #2 is up in the air. They moved up from #3 in their last match against NYU. That duo has been wildly successful this season while the former #2 team has not. Obviously this is a step up in class a bit, but I think they are the better team based off of their doubles discipline. Pei and Leung are more talented, but that doesn’t always equal results. I am going with Case 8-6,

Tsai/Bethke vs Benedetto/Zakhodin: If my first two predictions are correct, that makes this match unbelievably important. I don’t really have much faith in either team if I am being honest, but I have to pick one of them. I think Tsai/Bethke are trending up with a very close loss to CMS so I will give the edge, but only slightly. Chicago 8-6

Chua vs. Krimbill: Neither are really having the season they are probably hoping for, but Krimbill has beaten Chua the last few times they have played and may not have a loss ever to him (I am not sure). With that, I’ve gotta pick him in this one in straights. Case wins 6-2, 6-4

Pei vs. Fojtasek: This is a new match-up as Pei was at #3 the first go around. Fojtasek has shown he can compete this high with some quality wins, but also has some losses. I think Pei’s talent is a bit too much and he takes it down indoors. Outdoors, I would love to see it as I think that helps Fojtasek. Chicago wins 7-5, 3-6, 6-3.

Liu vs. Stroup: You could put David Liu at #1 and I don’t think I would have the balls to pick against him. He’s a stud and Stroup has been up and down all year, but mostly down. Chicago wins this one 6-2, 6-1.

Leung vs Stuerke: These guys went three sets at Indoors and I would expect more of the same. Stuerke has had a pretty good season and will continue to be a tough win against anyone. I have to think Leung will be confident with his previous win, but his season has been pretty bumpy. For funsies, I am picking Stuerke with the upset this time. Case wins 3-6, 7-5, 6-4

Liu vs. Dong: I think Max Liu is very beatable, but I also don’t think Kevin Dong has enough game to do it. Chicago wins 7-5, 7-5.

Tsai vs. Dughi: I am so glad to see that Tsai has found his way back into the lineup. He just knows how to win. Dughi is not a fun player to play, but Tsai will weather the storm. This match could be a long grind it out match with 20 ball rallies being the norm. Chicago wins 6-3, 6-4.

If all this happens, then you’ve got a 5-4 scoreline with Chicago taking it down. Chicago needs to beware of a potential doubles sweep. It shouldn’t happen, but I would not be surprised if it does especially if Case keeps Fojtaske and Gruber playing #2.

Saturday

Case vs. Coe

D3Central: The only thing that really needs to be mentioned here is the top singles spot match. Brady Anderson will look to get an upset over Krimbill in an effort to throw his name into the hat for a nationals berth. He has other ways in as he will take on Rodefeld (Depauw) and Carswell (Wash U) later in the season, but this would solidify his chances. I don’t think he will get it done, but you never know. I think the bigger story line with this one is the fact that Case is playing a relatively feisty and difficult team before taking on Wash U in the evening. Wash U does play Elmhurst that morning so they also will be playing their second match of the day against Case, but it is a much easier route.

Saturday, 6 pm Central: #13 Wash U vs #6 Case at Lincolnshire, IL

D3TennisGreek: Fun fact: this match was originally scheduled to be held at Jeremy Bush’s (and my non-existent fantasy draft No. 5 Andrew Komarov’s) high school, Stevenson in Lincolnshire, IL. However, it looks like this match will now be played indoors but still in Lincolnshire, so I assume Bush is very familiar with the setting. The first and most important thing to take note of is that Case would have already played 3 matches between Friday and Saturday before they play Wash U, and you have to wonder the effect all those contests will have on the Spartans. On the other side, Wash U has been surging as of late, so I am really excited about this ITA Indoors rematch that has Pool C implications. As far as individuals, I’m curious to see if Jeremy Bush will return to the singles lineup. Bush didn’t play the entire of month of March but has returned to the doubles lineup for the past few matches. Even without Bush,Coach Follmer’s squad has looked solid. John Carswell has a renewed confidence, and although he fell to Trinity TX’s Paxton Deuel, it was a tightly contested 3-setter. So, do I think Carswell takes out CJ? No, but it will be a lot closer than many expect. Something else that has caught my eye recently is Wash U’s doubles lineup; it is much different now than it was at Indoors. However, unlike indoors, it seems to be working now. I’ve always thought Case was a better doubles team, so just like D3Central, I expect a 2-1 lead going into singles. Wash U wins the depth battle, but Case’s strength at the top of the singles lineup will make for an even affair. I guess I have to make a prediction, so I’ll go with a very cautious 5-4 Wash U.

D3Central: Similar to the Chicago vs. Case match, this one will feature a lot of different match-ups and it’s hard to tell if Bush will be playing for Wash U. I’ve got to think that he has been resting an injury and will play as this is a key match for Wash U to get a Pool C bid. Bush has been playing doubles so he isn’t completely out. Jason Haugen being back will be huge for the Bears and changes things as well. I am going to assume that Bush plays with no real reason in believing that other than Wash U needs him to play. Case upset Wash U 6-3 at Indoors in the first round. If my memory serves me correctly, this happened a few years ago. Case beat Wash U early in the season and then Wash U rolled them later in the year.

Caswell/Cogan vs. Krimbill/Stuerke: Different doubles combination for Wash U, but the same story. Krimbill and Stuerke are just too good and will take advantage of a team with weaker serving games. Case wins 8-4.

Haugen/Kozlowski vs. Fojtasek/Gruber: This one is interesting as I am giving Fojtasek and Gruber a lot of credit for the season they are having. I have the talent of these two duos as very similar and Wash U knows how to play doubles so it could be a very close match. Because Case has been playing together all season, I will lean towards them. Case wins 9-8(3).

Kratky/Bush vs. Benedetto/Zakhodin: Wash U will be heavily favored if this is the matchup. You’ve got two guys that are very seasoned in doubles against two guys who are not. Wash U wins 8-5.

Carswell vs. Krimbill: Way back in the day, Carswell has a three set win over Krimbill, but that was during his unbelievable freshman year. It seems Mr. Carswell has rediscovered some of that magic, but still isn’t all the way back. Krimbill should win comfortably, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Carswell steals a set. Case wins 6-3, 6-2.

Bush vs. Fojtasek: Because Bush has been out, I don’t even know if he will play at all. With that, you have to expect Fojtasek to take down the win. I really think Bush has to play so Wash U can get the overall win. Case wins 6-4, 6-4.

Wu vs. Stroup: Stroup had a huge win over Kratky at Indoors and that win is really the only thing making his season successful. Wu is a nightmare match-up for him and I would expect Wu to grind him out with a relatively easy win. Wash U 6-4, 6-2.

Kratky vs. Stuerke: Kratky had a pretty bad start to the season with some not so great losses (Rose Hulman?!?), but it seems he has his game turned around and I like him to take out Louie. This match could be one that Case will need to turn the tide on the Bears. I am going to favor Kratky. Wash U wins 6-3, 6-7, 6-4.

Haugen vs. Dong: I am not sure if there is a player in my region I am higher on other than Haugen. Maybe David Liu from Chicago. Either way, I think Haugen is a stud and will make quick work of Kevin Dong. Wash U wins 6-3, 6-1.

Klein/Cogan vs. Dughi: Probably the biggest surprise of Case beating Wash U at Indoors was the two wins they got at #5 and #6. I am not sure who will feature at #6 as either Klein or Cogan will likely play. I have more faith in Cogan personally, but Dughi is not a fun guy to play. After looking at the rest of the results, this is the deciding match. I truly believe that Wash U gets this win as a team so I have to pick Wash U in this one. Wash U wins 7-6, 3-6, 6-3.

There you have it. Wash U avenges a loss with a 5-4 win over Case. If Bush sits out singles, I have a hard time thinking Wash U can win although I would expect Kratky to avenge his loss over Stroup, Haugen to win at 4 over Stuerke, but the issue is again at 5 and 6.

Sunday, 1 pm Central, Chicago vs Wash U at Chicago Outdoor Courts

D3TennisGreek: Duke/UNC, Ohio State/Michigan, Yankees/Red Sox, Federer/Nadal, and D3ASouth/D3Northeast are all huge rivalries that everyone looks forward to. But none of them come close to Chicago versus Wash U. This is probably the best rivalry the UAA has, and you’ve got to think that both teams will be revved up for Sunday. As of now, the teams are scheduled to play at Chicago’s outdoor courts, but as of now, the forecast calls for rain, so there’s a possibility these gentlemen play indoors. I know that we all hate excuses, but the day break between the Case match and Wash U match helps Chicago out. The tightness of the Wash U/Case match the previous evening may factor into what we see on Sunday. All excuses and external factors aside, these are two very evenly matched teams. Since D3Central covers this match thoroughly, and I’ve run out of time, my prediction is 5-4 Chicago.

ASouth Edit: There is no way Chicago/Wash U is the best rivalry in the UAA. The second best rivalry is Case/CMU. Then maybe, Wash U/Chicago. Maybe.

D3Central: By no means do I want to downplay this match because it’s another big one, but really Wash U needs the Case win more than this one. Chicago will be well rested which will help them. I expect another close match between these conference foes. Bush might not play this one, but I will assume that he does.

Chua/Liu vs. Carswell/Cogan: No real big servers in this match so you have to pick the better returning team to take it down. Chua and Liu’s return game is among the best in the country so I am leaning on them to win in a match they should take comfortably. Chicago 8-4.

Pei/Leung vs. Haugen/Kozlowski: I see this one as a swing match. I am not sure if I have any reason to pick Chicago other than talent. I struggle picking against the doubles discipline Wash U will show, but my gut says Chicago in this one. Chicago 9-7.

Tsai/Bethke vs. Kratky/Bush: Wash U is heavily favored at this spot. Kratky and Bush are just too good of doubles players to lose to a couple of guys who are just solid. Wash U wins 8-4.

Chua vs. Carswell: Until Carswell gets a big win at the top spot, you have to pick the other guy. He has his chance against Dueul, but fell in 3. Chua needs to get a win and will know to stay away from Carswell’s forehand. If these two get into backhand exchanges, Chua will win most of those points. Chicago 6-4, 6-4

Pei vs. Bush: Pei just has too much firepower for Bush who is untested in singles as of late if he plays in this match at all. Chicago 7-5, 6-2.

Liu vs. Wu: This is probably my favorite match up of the entire weekend. David Liu is a stud and Johnny Wu is a grind. I already mentioned I won’t ever pick against David Liu so I am not going to start here. Stepping up to playing #3 hasn’t stopped this freight train yet and I don’t expect it to. Chicago 6-4, 6-4.

Leung vs. Kratky: Leung has had a pretty average season and Kratky is trending upward. This one likely will go three, but can Leung put together two sets to take down the senior? I don’t think he does. Wash U wins 6-3, 4-6, 6-4

Liu vs. Haugen: I have mentioned Max Liu is beatable and Haugen is the guy who can do it. Liu will struggle with his weak serve and Haugen will take control of points because of it. Liu really needs to keep the ball deep in the court to neutralize Haugen’s great baseline game. Wash U wins 6-3, 6-4.

Tsai vs. Cogan/Klein: Mr. Tsai continues to prove himself as a top #6 in the country and wins this one easily. Chicago 6-4, 6-2.
There you have it. If Chicago takes the doubles lead, they should win this relatively easily. I have them winning 6-3, but Wash U could easily make this one go 5-4 either way.