The excitement of last weekend’s Kalamazoo-Kenyon match was a great start to what should be a Central region full of tight matches this year, with a lot of teams appearing to be pretty even. This is great news for us fans of D3 tennis, and gives me plenty to write about. While the Northeast is only just getting started in terms of notable matches, we’ve already gotten a decent sense of where some of the regional teams are this year. My biggest initial impression? The NCAC tournament will be a very interesting one this year. We’re still waiting to get a better idea of how Denison and DePauw look, but both of those teams have to be thinking this is their year to upend Kenyon. I’m pumped to see how these three teams, along with the rest of the conference, progress through the year. Anyway, here are my thoughts on some of the matches coming up this weekend:
Wisconsin-Whitewater vs Wheaton
I didn’t think this would be a match worth previewing, but based on their respective starts, I want to at least say a few words about this one before it gets going this afternoon. Wheaton narrowly fell to Kenyon 5-4 last weekend and was crushed 9-0 against Kalamazoo. I don’t think either of those two results are true indicators of their level, but nonetheless they are a solid team with a great #1 and have some upset potential. UWW on the other hand was hit hard by graduation and is missing their projected #1 in Rithwik Raman, leaving them pretty vulnerable. I give Wheaton the edge higher up in the singles lineup with Ancona, Dane Paulsen, and Matt Steiner, but in terms of doubles and depth, UWW is likely stronger thanks to great coaching and development. I lean towards the Warhawks in this one, mainly because of their doubles, but it gives me serious pause that almost all of their starters have very little tight match experience. Wheaton is just coming off a battle last weekend, so you know they’ll be ready for another grind. I think I’ve been a bit too high on Wheaton before, so I’m going to go with UWW here 5-4, but I don’t feel great about that pick, and an upset is definitely within the realm of possibility.
Coe vs Kalamazoo
Perhaps the marquee matchup of the weekend. Coe actually began the spring one spot ahead of Kalamazoo in both the regional and national rankings, though that’s obviously before Kalamazoo’s big win last weekend over Kenyon. This will be a competitive match, and the Hornets will need to come back strong after their emotional high last weekend. I give them a slight edge, but following up a big win against a tough but “lesser” opponent is no small task. Metzler (UTR 12.71) vs Anderson (UTR 12.17) at #1 singles should be great, as neither has lost yet this spring, though I definitely lean towards B-Metz. A win for either would be great in terms of their regional singles ranking goes, but for now I’d say both are safely in the top-8 in the region. #5 singles could also be a swing match just as it was for Kzoo last weekend. Elan Dantus (UTR 10.19) came through last weekend, and the Hornets could certainly use another win from him as he likely faces Evgeny Pakhomenko (UTR 10.18), who is 2-0 at #5 so far this spring. My inclination is that Kzoo finds five points thanks to a stud at the top and slightly superior depth, but I don’t feel great about a pick either way. If Coe is to win, I think their most likely path is by taking two doubles matches, having Anderson push Metzler and finding some wins in the middle of the lineup. Definitely a realistic scenario, but I’ll stick with my gut and say Kalamazoo takes it 6-3 or 5-4.
Wabash vs Carthage
Another matchup of teams next to each other in the rankings! Last year Wabash won this match 6-3, though that was before Carthage added Herman Abban (UTR 12.03), who takes the Redmen to another level at the top of the lineup. I think he’ll have a definite edge at #1 singles, even though William Reifeis (UTR 10.82) is coming off a nice win of Fojtasek of Case. #2 will be a key match as well, as Carthage will need Pawel Jaworski (UTR 10.60) to come through against Michael Makio (UTR 10.40). In terms of depth, Wabash has the edge, as their UTR Power 6 of 60 compared to Carthage’s 56 suggests. Carthage lost #5 and #6 (and barely won at #4) to Edgewood College last weekend, which only makes me lean more towards Wabash. The Little Giants are also generally a solid doubles team (shoutout to Reifeis/McAuley for their win over Case last weekend), which is bad news for Carthage as they’re not going to have much of a chance if they have to win four or more singles matches. Both teams have improved from last year, but I think if anything Wabash has taken a slightly bigger step forward, which is why I like them to take this one, no closer than 6-3.
Denison vs Chicago
This is Denison’s first D3 match of the spring, with their most recent result being a 6-3 loss to D2 Findlay. Their UTR Power 6 of 64 is a full 11 points below Chicago at 75. Not going to spend too much time on this one. It won’t be close. It wouldn’t shock me if Denison sneaks out a point somewhere, but this should be a 9-0 win for Chicago. Anything closer than 8-1 would be very surprising.
DePauw vs Chicago
DePauw begins play today against a tough D1 Butler team, and it won’t get any easier against Chicago. That’s quite a way to begin the spring. Much like the Chicago vs Denison match, this will not be close. I’ll be interested to see what lineup DePauw puts out there, though. AVZ told me he believes the Tigers will put out the same lineup as the fall, but as a commenter pointed out in their season preview, DePauw has a couple D1 transfers with low reliability UTRs around 11. It’ll be interesting to see if either of these two crack the lineup and how they perform. Dan Rodefeld was pretty close to making the top 8 in the region last year, and a win here would be huge for his chances of finding his way to nationals. He did get double bageled by Chua last year though, so he’ll have his work cut out for him. Overall, same as Denison here—anything besides 9-0 or 8-1 would be stunning.
Wabash vs Kzoo
Kalamazoo won this matchup 7-2 last year, and it should be a similar result again. It’ll be the third match of the weekend for both teams, but Kalamazoo is simply stronger up and down the lineup. #1 doubles could be close, and will be an important match if either team wants to have a chance at making NCAAs. Wabash might be the better doubles team at the top spot, but Kzoo will have the best player on the court. Always an interesting contrast. Anyway, just like last year, I’m calling this one 7-2 for the Hornets, as they continue their great start to the spring.
Ithaca vs Rochester
I’m excited to have my Northeast teams finally joining in on the action! Ithaca had a surprising win over Rochester last spring, and while they weren’t able to back up that result, the #20 Bombers come into this season with a good shot at once again knocking off the #18 Yellowjackets. #1 singles should be a dandy, with Rochester sophomore Masaru Fujimaki (11.14) facing Ithaca Freshman Minos Stavrakas (UTR 11.15). Ithaca is probably going to be short on depth (last year they beat UR with wins at 1-2 doubles and 1, 2, 3 singles), so they’ll once again need wins higher up. The #2 matchup between Andrew Nunno (UTR 10.44) and Michael Gardiner (UTR 9.62) could be closer than UTR suggests. Interestingly, last year Gardiner played #1 for Ithaca while Nunno played #6 for Rochester. Neither team is known for their doubles, so it should again be pretty even, though Rochester at least has a couple matches under their belt this spring. Ithaca is pretty unknown since they haven’t played this spring, but I’m going to pick Rochester to avenge last year’s loss on their home courts with a 5-4 win.