Central Region Individual Nationals Update

Good day friends. It has been a rather quiet time in the region and other than getting t-shirt requests, I have been sitting back and enjoying people bashing on my Middlebury ranking at #2 above Amherst. What team has gotten to most points on CMS? That would be Pomona and Middlebury. Pomona’s direct win over Midd is great, but they have a not so good loss on their resume too. Do I think Amherst is just as good as Midd? Absolutely. Oh the joys of being a blogger. At least I didn’t get called out by LoveD3Tennis to be more like the northeast women’s writer (get on your stuff ASouth). But let’s be honest, she is pretty amazing. As the season is dwindling down, it’s time to take a look at the individual nationals picture and who are the locks, probables, still have work to do, and long shots to make the tournament. Remember, in region wins make all the difference and out of region wins only are taken into account when the two players have not played one another. For example, Humphreys was ahead of Krimbill in the last ranking period because he had a win over Heinrich from Stevens when Krimbill had a loss.

SINGLES

Virtual Locks

Chris Krimbill: I don’t think there is any argument that Krimbill will be in the tournament without a doubt. He started the season hot and that happened to be the most in-region matches that Case has played so he has quality wins against Heerboth twice, Chua, the elder Al-Houni, and some great out of region wins as well. He faltered losing to Carswell, but his resurgence (sort of) has made it sting a bit less. Even if Krimbill loses every match at UAAs, he will still make it in as an individual.

Nicolas Chua: The young Maroon has somewhat quietly taken care of his business this spring with only two losses. One to the above Spartan and the other to blog favorite Chuddy of Pomona. His latest thrashing of Carswell (1 and 1) and win over Humphreys this past weekend means he also has secured a spot at individuals in May. They do play Gustavus this weekend which means more for the younger Al-Houni than it does Chua, but Chicago needs Chua to continue his good form so the team doesn’t falter and keep their Pool C chances alive. Like Krimbill, UAAs won’t change Chua’s individual hopes.

Probables

John Carswell: Mr. Carswell is a perfect example of “What have you done for me lately?” His early season losses made it seem like he was in serious trouble, but he solidified his spot by beating Humphreys from Whitewater this weekend. Two months ago, Carswell lost to Bertolini from Depauw who is no longer in the conversation and Heerboth from Kenyon. But after avenging the Heerboth loss and taking out Krimbill, all is back to normal for the Bear. Had he lost to Humphreys, I think he still would have some work to do at UAAs, but considering his losses would be to top ranked region or national contenders, nothing should hurt him from here on out. He does play Coe’s Sprinkel this weekend that would throw a slight wrench in things. Even then, I still think he makes it.

Jake Humphreys: Humphreys was a newly minted #1 ranked Central region player. Unfortunately he had a bad weekend going 0-3 against Chua, Carswell, and Budd from Tyler. The good news is non of those are bad in region losses so that helps. The only worry for me is Jake doesn’t have any big in region wins on his resume. Wins over Berto (Depauw), the elder Al-Houni (Gustavus), and Metzler (Kzoo) are solid, but not great. His out of region wins are massive with Heinrich (Stevens) and a demolition against Carl Reid from Colby. He also plays Sprinkel from Coe in two weeks and that win gets him in for sure, but a loss could put his name near the bottom of the 8 chosen to go to Cincy.

Still work to be done

Noah Sprinkel: I will be completely honest and say I think Sprinkel is ranked a little higher than he should be right now based off of his reputation from previous seasons. He has some good wins, but nothing amazing and a bad out of region loss (Oglethorpe). His win over Metzler is ok, but weakened a bit because Metzler fell to Veltman from Denison. The win over Mohaned Al-Houni is another solid win, but again over someone currently not in the top 10 of the rankings. Sprinkel has two chances to make himself a lock with Carswell and Humphreys in the next two weeks. If he loses both, he still may get in, but he will be a bubble player. The committee is putting a lot of weight on his “close” three set loss to Chua.

Wade Heerboth: The only reason I have Heerboth in the “still work to be done” column is because he will play some key matches coming up at the NCAC tournament. Heerboth rectified an early season loss (Sabada) with splitting matches with Carswell, a win over Veltman (Denison), and Bertolini (Depauw). He almost had a major slip up this past week beating the younger Drougas from Oberlin 11-9 in a breaker at #2 singles. I am guessing Coach Thielke wanted Geier to play #1 because he is trying to get him in the tourney as well. I would expect Heerboth to play #1 at the NCAC tourney and he has to win all his matches to ensure his ticket to Cincy. He will likely face Berto or Veltman again and he must win that one to move on.

On the Bubble

Ross Putterman: Putterman has been so good at #2, but being at that position always puts a small target on your back in that you can’t really lose because someone else’s top player may slip in your spot. There is a big emphasis on playing #1 for your team. Now Putterman’s resume is flawless in the region with his only losses coming to Emory, CMS, and Amherst. Not exactly bad losses. The UAAs will be important depending on who Wash U will end up playing. If Drougas (Case) or Kranz (Chicago) get another shot at Putterman, it will be interesting to see how it plays out. Putterman already has a win over both so it would even the score.

Sam Geier: Similarly with Putterman above, Geier is another #2 looking to squeak in the tourney. He does have some exposure playing the top spot a few times in Heerboth’s absence which will help, but they are going to be comparing Apples to Apples between Drougas and Geier. They have split and it might come down to looking at out of region wins. Geier has a solid out of region resume with Malesovas (Whitman #1), Fallati (Swarthmore’s #2), and Heaney-Secord (CMU’s #2), but so does Drougas which I will talk about below. Geier must win his remaining matches and hope Drougas doesn’t run the table at UAAs.

Long Shots

Mohaned Al-Houni: The younger brother is an extreme long shot, but can thrust his name into consideration if one thing happens and that is he has to beat Chua from Chicago this weekend. He has one loss that is killing him and that is to Simhadri at #3 early in the year. Since then, he has been really good as he moved up to the top singles spot over his brother. Unfortunately I think it is a little too late. His win over Chuddy from Pomona probably got him ranked high, but like I have said time and time again, in region matches are what matters. A win over Chua would put the committee in a very tough spot trying to pick between a #2 with a great resume and a #1 with a huge win and a bad loss.

Will Drougas: As I mentioned above, Drougas and Geier are virtually the same player with their resume wins and split over one another. Drougas is going to have a shot to bump out Geier, but a lot of things need to go his way. Case will play Chicago in the first round of UAAs so he must beat Kranz first and foremost. Then I would say that Case has to win as a team to move on to the next round likely against Emory. I don’t expect them to win that one, but a win over a national level opponent at #2 singles sure would help. In the 3/4 match, Case would play either Wash U or Carnegie Mellon. Both would help Drougas if he wins, but playing Putterman again would give him the best chance to moving on in May. It’s a tough road, but definitely possible. Like Geier, he also has a win over Heaney Secord (CMU) which helps and Liu from Wesleyan.

On life support, but worth mentioning

Sven Kranz, Grant Veltman, Deepak Sabada, Michael Treis: All these guys are great players, but have some bad losses that will keep them out of the tournament. Just wanted to give them a shout out for having good seasons!

DOUBLES

Virtual Lock

Motasem Al-Houni/Andres Saenz (Gustavus): Doubles is so crazy that there are hardly ever guarantees, but the Gustavus duo have played together all season with great results. With wins over Case and Coe in region and out of region wins over Pomona, Carnegie, and Hopkins. They do have an in-region loss to Whitewater, but that duo isn’t even playing together so it really doesn’t hurt them all that much. With only one big match left on the schedule, even a loss to a newly formed Chicago team shouldn’t hurt them enough to knock them out of the tourney. Winning their fall ITA only helps their resume.

Probable

Chris Krimbill/Louis Stuerke (Case Western): Only two in region losses, playing together all year, other great in region wins, and some top national level wins means these two should be in the tournament as well. The body of work is just too good. Their in region losses are to the above Gustavus team and a Wabash team that is trying to stay in the picture. Krimbill’s national championship last season certainly won’t hurt as keeping him out this year would be a travesty. The UAA’s do pose a small threat as Case needs to fair well to ensure the spot, but I think they would be knocked out only if they lose to both Chicago and Wash U’s teams and Wabash runs the table at the NCACs. That scenario only happens if certain teams win/lose to match up.

Still work left to do

Daniel Delgado/Will Reifeis (Wabash): Stealing the D3TennisNerds tweet from last night, the improbable run continues for Delgado and Reifeis. They beat a solid Depauw team adding another in region resume booster along with the upset of Case early in the season. Previously I have said they needed to run the table and beat the three headed monster of Depauw/Denison/Kenyon to make the tourney with no other slip ups, but I think the Denison match is a must win and the Kenyon match is important, but wouldn’t knock them out completely. A lot will depend on what Wash U and Chicago do in the coming matches too, but it’s simple for these guys. Keep winning and you are in. They do not have any big national level wins because they haven’t played the competition. But with only one loss to Tyler on the record and 20+ wins, they have proven a lot this season.

Ross Putterman/Jeremy Bush (Wash U): I am a big fan of this team and still believe they are one of the best as their semi-final appearance from last year shows that, but their up and down season is going to be really difficult to overlook. Solely looking at in-region opponents as they have played pretty much everyone, they have split with Kenyon, lost to Case, just lost to Chicago, beat Whitewater, and beat Depauw. They are about .500 against national opponents too which won’t hurt, but it’s nothing fantastic. I think the UAAs will be very important, but it’s really possible that they won’t play any in region opponents along the way. If they do, they need to win them as in makes their resume stronger. Beating the likes of Carnegie or Emory wouldn’t hurt either. Coe this weekend is a must win.

Deepak Sabada/Ankur Bhargava (Chicago): Ah now things get interesting. Sabada and Bhargava are 4-0 on the season as they just got paired together. Their 4 wins are against Putterman/Bush, Chudalavada (Pomona), Wooten/Fischer (Tyler), and Treis/Shklyar (Whitewater). That is pretty impressive to say the least. It will be really interesting to see how the committee interprets this predicament. Playing Gustavus this weekend would give them another massive win and continue to make the statement that they belong. They will play Case in the first round of UAAs and I honestly think that will determine their fate. If they win, they should be in the top 4 bumping the Wash U team out. Even with the direct win over Wash U, they just have too small of a sample size to make them viable. I firmly believe that consistency (which means playing with the same partner) should hold a lot of weight when these selections are made.

Long Shots

Ben Shklyar/Michael Treis (Whitewater): One weekend really changed the outcome for the Warhawks. Losing all three matches and two of them to in region lower ranked opponents absolutely killed this team. They fell to Putterman/Bush as well as Sabada/Bhargava giving them ZERO big in region wins. They did beat a Depauw team of Bertolini and Rodefeld, but they are now playing at #2. The big Whitewater win at the top dubs spot was over Gustavus, but it was Treis and Humphreys with no Shklyar as he was out with injury. They have one more semi important match against Coe that would help, but I don’t think it would be enough to get them back in. Even if Coach Barnes switches Humphreys back with Treis, I think it would be wrong to put a team with only 5 wins total ahead of a team like Putterman/Bush or Delgado/Reifeis who have played together all season.

Tim Rosensteel/Sam Geier (Kenyon): This is the longest of shots as they have too many not so great losses and not enough good wins to get them in the top 4. In fact now that I look at it more closely, I am really just not seeing enough to bump them up. They will play Wabash this weekend and either Denison or Depauw in the NCAC final which will get them a better resume, but likely come up short if only by a little.

So in conclusion, it really comes down to what the selection committee values the most. In singles, do they want playing #1 on your team to be the most valuable thing there is along with direct wins or are they going to reward the great seasons that a few #2’s are having. If they put in #2’s which ones do they pick?!? In doubles, do you pick season long doubles partners that have won a lot of good matches, or do you choose the teams that are newly formed with some great wins. Personally, I think one way in singles and another in doubles. For singles, I believe that a few of the #2 players deserve to be in the tournament as they are just too good and would be playing #1 at 95% of the schools in D3. This would be in regards to Putterman, Geier, and Drougas although only 2 of the 3 probably get in. As for dubs, my thinking is opposite. I believe you reward the teams that have been playing together all season and have many solid wins along the way. This bumps the newly formed Chicago team out of the running, but as I mentioned previously, their wins have been BIG wins. Always interesting and it will be fun to see how the rest of the season plays out. Bring on the conference tournaments!