Atlantic South’s CMU + Swat Spring Break Preview

At the behest of the almighty D3TG, I will be previewing both #18 Carnegie Mellon and #24 Swarthmore’s spring break schedules.  I’ll also be previewing the Stag-Hen Invitational (which Swat is in, I believe) with the even almightier D3Tennis later this weekend.  I figure that I’ll be doing some recaps later on, so you guys can look forward to that too.  Let’s start with CMU’s spring break, as they’ll be kicking off this weekend.

CMU Spring BreakCMULOGO

This is an extremely important spring break trip for the Tartans.  They’ve got two top-10 teams on their schedule, followed with the up and coming UT-Tyler team.  These matches are back-to-back-to-back, which could present a problem later in the set (which happens to be Tyler, lucky them).   A successful spring break here to me would be to get 2 out of these 3 matches.  If they can get that, it’d mean they beat either Trinity/Bowdoin or both, which I’m sure represents some indirect wins later as well as a huge rankings boost.  Getting into the matches….

CMU vs University of the South

This is the classic “Spring Break warm-up” match, but the Tartans have to be sure not to overlook the South.  After getting swept in doubles by Haverford, they could use this doubles practice.  Even though the South has some nice recruits this year, they won’t be able to keep up in singles.  I’ll take CMU in all 6 singles, and a nice 2-1 doubles victory to come out 8-1.

CMU vs. Bowdoin

Out of the three remaining matches for CMU, I must say this is the match I’m most excited about.  We’ll learn a lot about both teams here, especially Bowdoin.  We don’t know what the lineup will look like, but I do have a best guess here:  King, Grindon, Lord, Bragg, Wolstencraft, and potentially a freshman.  Last year, Bowdoin was a balanced team that could beat you at all 9 positions – and I expect more of the same this year.  However, the loss of Pena is big time.  This same match was 6-3 last year, so we can safely assume this will be real close this year.  Doubles always seems to be a strength for Bowdoin, and right now it’s real weak for CMU.  I’ll take 2-1 Polar Bears, just because I think it’s really hard to sweep a similarly talented team when both teams are “up” for the match.  If CMU can’t get a point, you can pretty much say that they have awful doubles, considering they’ve had 2.5 weeks since their last match to get teams/fundamentals down.  Moving to singles, this is where CMU (surprise…) will win the match. History tells us this may be a down year for Bowdoin, and let’s remember this will be their first real match, and coming from Maine, maybe the 2nd time they are playing outside.  Not to mention – I believe King was either studying abroad or on some type of excursion in the fall, hard to think he played all that much.  Even with his work ethic and desire, you don’t just come back, pick up your sticks and play with the best players in DIII (unless you’re everyones favorite player, Nick Ballou).  I think CMU honestly has the advantage at 1-3 and 6 singles, for sure.  Heaney-Secord has already shown us that he’s a legit #1 this year, Miller/Alla at 2/3 is a great combination, and the senior duo of either Yu/Rao at 6 is also an advantage.  I’m somewhat worried about Kumar at 4 against Bragg/Lord, Kumar had a tough one against Stevens so that is a tossup or in Bowdoin’s favor.  Hasegawa had a big win in the fall against Amherst at 5, but went 3 sets with the Stevens 5 that got smacked against Swat.  Either way, I think this gets to a 5-4 CMU victory.

CMU vs Trinity (TX)

This will be CMU’s toughest test of Spring Break in my opinion.  Trinity is almost like CMU’s Achilles heel, as they play awesome doubles and have a national champion at #1.  CMU is seriously in danger here of getting swept in doubles, and as I mentioned earlier, it’s tough to sweep a team that is of the same talent.  However, this is the exception.  I actually see Trinity up 3-0, especially after a potentially draining Bowdoin win the day before for CMU.  If CMU can steal one of the doubles, this instantly becomes a dogfight, but right now I can’t pick a team that got swept by Haverford and was a couple of games from being down to Stevens at any spot versus the Tigers.  Singles is where Trinity is really going to have to grind this one out.  Skinner has the clear advantage over Heaney-Secord at 1, but that might be where the advantages stop.  I think the spot that the Tigers can look forward to is if Miller plays 3 for the Tartans.  DelaFuente has a good set-up against Miller, especially outdoors, so we’ll see.  If Alla plays 3, I think CMU has the advantage at both spots.  Another potential spot is at #5 singles, where Mayer has been playing real well.  CMU has to have the advantage at 2/3, 4 and 6.  You can see why I believe doubles is the key here – if CMU gets 1, they have the drivers seat in singles.  Trinity only took 2 singles matches against Cal Lu, and I think the Tartans have the better singles lineup.  My prediction is a 5-4 Trinity win.

CMU vs. UT-Tyler

Now this will be an exciting match.  Two relatively unknown teams face off and we get to see how good Tyler’s transfers are as well as how good CMU’s freshmen are.  Going with the CMU trend, as well as Tyler’s impressive 2-1 lead over Gustavus, you gotta go with Tyler after doubles here, especially at 1 and 2.  I think CMU takes 3 due to their depth, which you’ll see later on when we reach singles.  So, with a 2-1 lead going into singles, this match gets ridiculously exciting.  Let me start off by saying CMU has the advantage at 5 and 6, no doubt about it.  Tyler struggled a bit against GAC there, and CMU hasn’t lost a match down there all season.  I think every one of the top 4 singles will be evenly matched, with UTT having the slight advantage at 4 and CMU having the slight advantage where Alla plays.  What this is going to come down to is Heaney-Secord and Miller’s experience and play, as well as their conditioning.  I know both have had trouble with conditioning in the past – and this will be the 4th match in four days.  All they need is for one of these guys to pull this thing out.  I think Miller comes up huge (senior season effect) and the Tartans escape 5-4 on what is considered a successful spring break trip.

Swarthmore Spring Break

Swarthmore vs. Redlands

Starting off, I’d like to say I love the activity from the Swarthmore team on the site.  I agree, maybe a bit too harsh on you guys to start the season but it looks like you may be able to maneuver some upsets here and there.  And I believe Redlands might be an instant opportunity.  Swat is a proud team that has been playing awesome singles the past two years, and this is most definitely a good test against a team that struggled in their first match.  What I saw from Swarthmore against Stevens was this – a fairly strong #1 player in Collard, a strong 4 in Poon, and solid 5 and 6.  However, their doubles is really lacking, and this is where they may run into some trouble.  They had a really weak performance against Stevens, getting walloped at 1 and 2.  Redlands just so happens to be decently strong at those two positions, so I have to go with the Bulldogs there.  Three doubles is a bigtime swing match, because I don’t think Swat can pull off 5 of 6 singles like they did last year against CMS.  The Swarthmore 3 team looks like a solid team, but the Bulldogs are sending out Nanda and Brewer.  Personally, I have Swat taking this – but Nanda could change this match if he takes over.  Moving to singles, I think it’s unfortunate that Swarthmore has the previously mentioned singles strengths.  Lipscomb is a really good #1 for Redlands, and I think on his home courts he’ll be able to take it home in a competitive but not in doubt match.  I think 2 and 3 will be really close as well, as Redlands and Swat aren’t strong at these two positions.  I’ll go with a split here, putting Redlands up 4-2.  Swarthmore takes 4 and 6 in my opinion.  Poon has played lights out at 4, and the Redlands 6 just lost to LittleJohn of UC Cruz, who was really underwhelming in Indoors.  That leaves it up to 5 singles – Nanda vs. Stone.  This is going to be a battle, and I’m going to go with Nanda at home, outdoors.  5-4 Redlands in a really eventful and back-and-forth match.

Swarthmore vs. Kenyon

I know this match occurs before the above match, but it wasn’t on the initial calendar so I got a bit confused.  Kenyon is almost using this as their “Spring Break Warm Up” match, which you can do when you’ve just won National Indoors.  Honestly, no offense to Swarthmore here, I think any team outside the top 15 would be a warmup for Kenyon.   Much to my dismay, this makes for a pretty easy preview.  Kenyon’s doubles is improved versus last year, and they’ll sweep this – especially considering their 3 doubles team has been wrecking it.  Moving to singles, I think Kenyon is just better at every position, especially at the top 3.  If Swarthmore does have a chance, it could be at 4/5 singles – although I think it’s really unlikely.  This is just a bad matchup for Swarthmore, because they have no “stud” positions, leaving them vulnerable to a shutout against a team as well-rounded as Kenyon.  9-0 Kenyon.

Swarthmore finishes their Spring Break with the Stag-Hen Invitational, which D3Tennis and I will be previewing later this weekend.  D3Tennis tweeted today that he’s taking suggestions for anything you guys would like to see in that preview, so please feel free to tweet or leave in comments.  We’re always looking to add more color and value to your reading.

5 thoughts on “Atlantic South’s CMU + Swat Spring Break Preview

  1. D3AtlanticSouth

    Update: CMU beat South 9-0, Kenyon beat Swarthmore 9-0.

  2. Anonymous

    wait, how old is ballou? isn’t he like 25…

    1. Anonymous

      Ballou is 23. He took a big break after leaving Boise State, more than a year. If you want to talk age the real old one to look at is Alex Lane who’s 25 if not 26 now.

      1. SCIAC Follower

        I think the real thing to look at is what these guys do after college. CMC is a far superior academic institution than Cal Lu. End of story.

        1. D3AtlanticSouth

          cool story bro

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