I’d say the team has really stepped up their game the past couple weeks, don’t you think? I’m in my wheelhouse now because the UMW ITA is definitely my favorite one. It includes 4 or 5 of my ranked teams (CMU, Hopkins, W&L, Mary Washington, sometimes Chris Newport) and in general is a tournament filled with competition. There are years where Hopkins dominates the field, there are years where CMU almost dominates the field, and there are years where other teams throw a stud or two out there and win it. Eric Shulman, anyone? What I did for the Emory regional was a nice little warmup for what I’m about to do for this region. This is a bit more exciting than the Emory region, considering there are a lot of contenders. Let’s get to the nitty gritty.
Update: It has come to my attention that Swarthmore has potentially pulled out of the ITA due to Hurricane Joaquin. Unfortunately, players such as John Larkin, Ari Cepelewicz, Mark Fallati, and Blake Oetting will be potentially unable to participate in this weekends festivities.
Update #2: Swarthmore is now going!!! Only Oetting will not be making the trip. Hurricane Joaquin is doing this with Swarthmore’s ITA hopes.
The Favorite(s)
Michael “MVP” Buxbaum, Johns Hopkins – The man I call MVP has been a beast at ITAs, winning the past year in style with a backwards cap and a fraternity bro shirt in tow. I went back and forth between the two top players in this tournament (MVP and Alla) and I really can’t tell you which one is the true favorite. If it comes down to a match between them, expect a battle. Two years ago, Buxbaum lost to Alla 7-5 in the third, but he got his revenge this past year. If Buxbaum had a good summer (I will mention summer a lot) I expect him to keep plugging away with his strong all around game. His consistency allows him to stave off a ton of upsets and his indoors game is on point. If you haven’t heard, there’s some type of hurricane going on down the East Coast so there might be a LOT of indoors matches at UMW this weekend. This gives a good advantage to the Bux and I expect him to make a finals appearance.
Abhishek Alla, CMU – Alla is my second favorite in the draw even though that’s not what a favorite means. None of the players in the region will feel the wrath of the first-time Alla curse, luckily for them. If you don’t know what I’m talking about, you should see all the players that have played Alla for the first time that have gotten smoked. Even the mighty Warren Wood last year was down 6-4, 4-2 at Nationals before finally figuring out the tricky game of this CMU player. Despite probably the weakest serve in the tournament, Alla will be a force to be reckoned with assuming he has kept up his game. An Alla vs. MVP final would be anything but surprising.
Strong Players to Note, in no particular order
Stratton Gilmore, Mary Wash – Gilmore was a revelation last year as he ascended into the top 2 of the Eagles starting lineup with ease. Playing that high in the lineup was obviously a pretty different experience for him considering he had a few key losses. However, he did take out Jeremy Dubin of Hopkins, along with a few other strong players. Gilmore has the talent to upset a few guys but I don’t think he will have a shot against the top two players here. Home court advantage is a plus, but that can only go so far.
Kiril Kirkov, CMU – Kirkov struggled last year moving up in the Tartan lineup due to a lingering wrist injury, but one can only assume the dedicated junior is back at full strength. A lot of CMU’s season depends on Kirkov being a strong top of the lineup player, because as always they will have depth. The #2 spot has been vacated by known blog-follower Christian Heaney-Secord and we shall see who steps up into the role for the Tartans. My guess is Kirkov, who is just one year removed from a sick year at #3 and #4 singles. Expect a surprise from Kirkov if he is healthy.
Jeremy Dubin, Hopkins – I have never been a huge fan of Dubin at the top of the lineup, and last year really proved that as he struggled at the #2 singles spot. He was demoted for a little bit but will be back in that spot again this year, barring a freshman making a huge jump for the Jays. Dubin brings a sneaky consistent game with solid groundstrokes, but I just don’t trust him in a tournament format like this. He doesn’t really get hot and play out of his talent range, and that will hurt him against tougher opponents.
Michael Holt, W&L – Everyone seems to forget about Michael Holt. I personally feel like I’ve been writing about this General forever, and he still doesn’t get enough credit. Holt had an up and down year last year but really finished strongly, with wins over Alla (CMU), Trinka (Bowdoin), and even Robert Kjellberg (NCW). That was a legit run for Holt and we saw what he could do if he was healthy. Holt is one of the players that can take on a Buxbaum or Alla and beat them on a given day.
John Larkin, Swarthmore – Larkin is one of the potential giant killers in the draw, especially based on last year’s results. He took two TOP players in Heinrich (Stevens) and Heerboth (Kenyon) to three sets before bowing out. He also took out Luis Acaba (Haverford) and a few other top players as well. The one thing with Larkin is that he doesn’t come close to Buxbaum, as he got throttled in his first match against him (1 and 1) and was down a set in the next one. Larkin improved from 13-14 to last year, though, and a significant jump could put him as one of the top 3 players in this draw. This draw has a lot of question marks and Larkin could take advantage.
Sleepers
Kunal Wadwani, CMU – Speaking of people I love in a tournament format, it’s Wadwani from CMU. The dude can grind, and he wears people down big time. That will be a big factor for him as he gets to the later rounds (if he does), because he can take his stamina and mentality to the next level while others break down. The one thing I don’t like is his lack of weapons, but who knows what a summer can do. Wadwani can make some noise in the right draw but I don’t see him beating the big guns like Bux or his teammate, Alla.
Jordan Krasner, W&L – For some reason, Jordan likes to give me a lot of crap on twitter, but that does not change the fact that the dude is a pretty solid player. While he isn’t a top player in the region yet, he has shown growth the past two years since being a freshman. He started off as a solid #4 singles player and even got to play some #1 last year before moving back down in the lineup. If Krasner can take another step forward, he could be a guy that finishes in the quarterfinals with an upset.
David Lunding-Johannson, UMW – The man they call L-J is a great example of how you can move up in a national program simply with hard work. David used to be a bottom of the lineup player with his crafty game, but he’s definitely improved his groundstrokes the past 3 years and is now looking to be a #1 or #2 UMW player. L-J doesn’t have the firepower to overtake the best guys in this tournament (like a lot of the players) but can surprise a few people as well as potentially win the doubles portion.
Justin Cerny, Chris Newport – Cerny hasn’t shown me enough to get into the “Other Strong Players” section, but this Chris Newport player (projected #1) gets into the sleeper section with some hype from some of my insiders. Cerny took out L-J last year in three sets before losing to him in a rematch at a later dual match, but he is said to have had a good summer. The summer is such a huge portion of the ITA because there are players that simply work harder than the rest. Is Cerny one of these guys? He played #3 for CNU last year and is looking to capitalize on some unrest at the top of the lineup.
Mark Fallati, Swarthmore – Mark Fallati is one of my old friends and I must do my best to make sure I write this in unbiased fashion. 🙂 While Fallati didn’t have the results last year to really be considered a contender in this ITA, he does have a great work ethic and a known desire to be one of the best in DIII. I don’t doubt Mark’s motivation this summer and I’m sure he has placed a few targets on peoples backs. He actually lost in a nail biter to top guys like Sam Geier and Ben Hwang last year, so the ability is there. Swarthmore is full of guys that need to take the next step. I don’t see Fallati as a big “Sophomore slump” candidate, but he will need to play above his level to beat any of the guys above.
Ari Cepelewicz, Swarthmore – One of the toughest names to spell out on the circuit, Cepelewicz has actually beaten some of my strong players to note. He took out both Michael Holt and L-J early last season before going through a relatively easy schedule at #3 in his conference. He was on his way to losing pretty convincingly to Jeremy Dubin of Hopkins before the match was ended. As I mentioned with Swat, they are a young team hungry to make a statement. This draw presents a lot of chances to make those statements. I don’t see Ari with the goods to beat a seed, but he can certainly take a set off of someone.
Freshmen To Watch
Eshan Dave, Hopkins – Sometimes we find players that have a first name as a last name, and a last name as a first name. That’s not the only thing that sets Dave apart from the rest of the field, though. He is the only Hopkins freshman who had a 4-star ranking. I obviously have no idea about how Dave plays, so it will be interesting to see how far he gets in this tournament. This will be the only time we see Dave in a big match until the Spring, so let’s see what you got, youngin.
Daniel Levine, CMU – Levine, one of two 4 star recruits from CMU, is my freshman to watch in this tournament. The Highland Park native has risen in the tennis recruiting rankings for the past 4 years, and he maxed out at #112 last year. That’s impressive and we’ve seen players ranked in the top 125 really make some moves for their teams. CMU is counting on someone to fill the #2 and #3 spots this year and if Levine can do so, that’s a huge boost to the Tartans. I have no information on Levine’s game but if I were to take a bet, this would be my guy to go far.
Vayum Arora, CMU – Arora is another four star recruit from CMU, and the reason why he’s not my go-to freshman is because of his declining TRN rankings. His high was 79 back in 2013, but that has dropped down to 146 in the most recent rankings. I wonder why that is. Also, that rank of 146 was back in January, and I’m not sure if he’s played tennis since. We shall see if Arora even shows up in the draw.
Chaz Downing, CMU – Always good to have a guy named Chaz in a review, simply because his name is Chaz. Downing is a two star recruit – so why do I have him listed here? Well, that’s because prior to 2015, he had rankings within the top 75 in the nation. I’m not sure what happened, but I assume he still plays tennis considering he was recruited. Downing is a true wild card because I’m not sure if his ranking is due to his lack of play (lots of kids just take years off) or an injury.
Perry Clements, W&L – The freshman from Tyler, Texas will be W&L’s best freshman at the tournament. The lefty has a lot of high hopes as he will have to fill the shoes of Chris Hu, who was one of my favorite players when he was still playing. The Gennies really need some freshman talent so it would be nice to see Clements step up.
Scott Thygesen, Hopkins – I almost missed Thygesen and his freshman teammate (you’ll see) in this section. Thygesen has moved up the TRN rankings every single year, maxing out at #183 this past year. Hopkins has so many holes to fill with graduations that Thygesen will almost have to make an impact for this team to be successful. I’m hearing that he’s playing doubles with Jeremy Dubin, so the Jays must think highly of this recruit coming in.
Nakul Narendran, Hopkins – Another Hopkins freshman who has a ranking within the top 200 of TRN, Narendran is a three star recruit looking to make a splash. Again, I have very little information on Narendran’s gamestyle, but I do know he is playing with Nick Garcia in doubles. Garcia is a solid doubles player. Interesting to see Hopkins mixing freshmen with experienced partners in the hopes of solidifying the doubles lineup. Remember, they lost Lim, Brown, and Joachim to graduation.
Doubles
As always, I will not preview the doubles portion of the event. Your guess is as good as mine when it comes to all these new teams and players. We shall see who wins this one.
ASouth’s Bold Predictions
- Buxbaum and Alla will both make the finals, giving us another battle to the finish. Alla will win with the benefit of playing indoors, where his flat shots send Buxbaum reeling in a tight 3rd set.
- Michael Holt will either lose before the second round or make the semifinals. The reason I am predicting this is because Holt has historically performed poorly at ITA regionals, and I’m scared to predict his normal finish. He has the goods to make the semifinals, but will he actually be able to turn that into 3 wins?
- UMW will not get any players into the quarterfinals. No disrespect to Stratton Gilmore or L-J, but I just don’t see them holding off an unseeded player like Wadwani, Zheng, Dave, or a random Hopkins player. Given that this weekend will be played inside as well, I just don’t think either of these two has the game style to rip it with the big 2 (CMU and Hopkins).
- One freshman will make some noise. Whether it’s Dave of Hopkins or Levine or Arora of CMU, there will be a freshman that potentially makes it to the quarters, or at least takes a set off a top player. Watch out for Downing of CMU – that’s my true sleeper pick in this tournament.
- Matches will be extremely delayed. Given the weather, this isn’t really that bold of a prediction. This ITA always seems to have problems with delays when they have outdoor courts, imagine the craziness when the matches move indoors. The weather factor sucks for the back draw and B draw players, they might not be able to get their matches in.
- CMU Tennis Twitter will still reign supreme. There is no other account in this section that even comes close to the updates of the CMU tennis twitter. One can only hope CMU tweets out for the rest of the teams, too. Don’t count on it. Hopkins, step it up.
- Hopkins may be in for a down year. With the losses of Tanner Brown, Erik Lim, Noah Joachim, Ben Hwang, and Jensen Reiter, Hopkins is looking at a year of turmoil. They’ve brought in a couple of recruits to try and ease the pain, but they need some contributions from lesser guys on the team (Justin Kang, Emerson Walsh) to get to the place they were last year. I just don’t see it. #BulletinBoard
- Kunal Wadwani will make the quarterfinals. If you know anything about Wadwani of CMU, it’s that he tries really hard. Wadwani came close to upsetting Buxbaum last year. With a better draw, watch out for Kunal to take out a seed or two on his way to a surprising quarterfinal run.
- Emerson Walsh will also give people something to think about. Walsh has been a developing game since he won the doubles title with Buxbaum his freshman year, and he even debuted in the singles lineup for a few matches last year. Look for him to take the next step and make the Round of 16 at least this year.
- The bloggers will be in for another good tweeting weekend. It’s time for me to step it up and start tweeting more. Look for myself and the rest of the crew to tweet another great ITA weekend.
- Larkin or Fallati will make the quarters. Either of these two guys is going to make the quarterfinals, because I’m that BOLD. That leaves my quarters as something like Buxbaum, Alla, Holt, Wadwani, and Larkin/Fallati, and then take your pick. If I get all of those you might as well call me D3Central.
That’s all we got folks! Here’s a few things to remember. First off, you should totally follow the newest blogger on the team, D3ASWomen’s. D3ASW has some experience on both the Men’s and Women’s side (no, it’s not Caitlyn Jenner) so look out for that account to help me out all year round. Here’s the D3ASW twitter account.
https://twitter.com/d3ASWomens
Also, please follow us on instagram. I want to get “Insta-famous” and my real account isn’t cutting it with like 300 followers. I want moar! I mean, the team wants more. Anywho, here’s the link. If you want us to post a picture or something, feel free to tweet it at us or email d3regional@gmail.com. We’ll have video, pictures, and who knows what else for the rest of the year on the account! Link below:
https://instagram.com/division3tennis/
As always, ASouth, OUT.