It’s been a while peeps. While I tried to stave off the March Madness insanity (spoiler, I didn’t), I realized that I should probably write a preview for one of the marquee matchups of the year. Yes, that would be none other than the CMS Stags visiting the Johns Hopkins Blue Jays to christen their new courts in what is going to be Hop’s first match on the new digs. Now, I think I know what the outcome is going to be, but that doesn’t mean that this isn’t an important match. I want to see how the Stags play on the road, I want to see how many matches Hopkins can get, and I want to see some fire from the Jays after the Stags knocked my regional team out of the Elite 8 last year. This match won’t mean much in the long run, but I think it has more subjective value than it does from a rankings and quantitative perspective. Close losses, you know? I’m kidding. Okay, Hopkins/CMS. Let’s do it.
WAIT, it looks like D3NE is going to be joining me for this preview as well as adding his Bates previews with me for the other two matches of the weekend. I guess I can allow this to happen despite NE’s obvious bias against ASouth teams.
CMS @ Hopkins Friday at 11 a.m.
D3AS: I wish I could go match by match but I procrastinated so hard yesterday and now I have to write this preview in like 20 minutes. That’s almost as tough a task as beating CMS this year. Here’s how Hopkins can win this match. First off, CMS has to come totally unprepared to play. That’s not going to happen, because they are here for one reason and that’s to play Hopkins. Second off, Hopkins is going to have to take a doubles lead. If they don’t, they’ll lose the match 90+% of the time.
Where do they have chances in doubles? Everywhere. Wood/Dorn are a great team for CMS but they are not unbeatable. Buxbaum/Walsh have a lot of experience at #1 doubles and definitely have the goods to take this team down. Thing is, those two have not had their best year so far this year, as they lost all three of their matches at Indoors and only one of them was close. If Buxbaum/Walsh can regain their form, they can potentially take this, but I don’t think so. That leaves the other two matches that Hopkins basically has to take. They have a lot of seniors with the Brown/Lim combo and the Joachim/Garcia combo, and these happen to be places where CMS could potentially falter. Doubles is so variable and Hopkins can really get this going if the Brown/Lim combo starts firing things up. If they can get Hop to believe they’ll take the lead, they can do it. Unfortunately, I think CMS takes one of these two matches (#2 doubles is my bet) and go into singles with a 2-1 lead.
In singles, Hopkins is weak in the middle of the lineup. This is why I think they have to take the doubles lead. I really believe that CMS is going to sweep through #2-4 singles in a heartbeat. Dubin, Hwang, and Joachim are all good players but none of them are at the level of Butts, Marino, and Dorn. I expect all those sets to be 6-3 or less and CMS takes it pretty quickly. That leaves the other three matches as the toss-ups. Buxbaum (MVP) has been lights out this year and he’s going to have a hell of a battle against Wood. That’s a match I actually think JHU has an advantage in. At the bottom of the lineup, we have our favorite players Erik Lim and Tanner Brown. Both of these guys are wild cards – Lim’s nickname should be “Wild Card” at this rate and Tanner has dealt with so many injuries in his career I never know which one will show up. They can win both these matches down here, but “can” doesn’t always mean “will.” These will be close, but CMS is here to play. They’ll take both close and dagger the Jays by the score of 7-2.
D3NE: Why am I involved in this preview? Well I was originally just going to talk about Bates, but then I remembered how depressing it is to pick an NE team to lose both matches in a preview. I wanted to predict an AS team losing, and you all should revel in it as well. Misery loves company. So, start revelling. Hop may be talented, they may have a bunch of seniors, and they may have one of AS’ favorite players in Mike “TV” Buxbaum, but they’re not as talented, CMS starts as many seniors, and have a few studly players of their own. The Stags have pretty clearly looked like the best team in the country so far this year, but here are a few places where they Jays could hurt them.
1) Doubles. While none of the Stags’ final scores have been that close, their doubles have still left a little to be desired. CMS has played a bunch of close doubles matches, and has often had to come back from an early break. If Hop can jump early, their doubles experience may be able to hold a lead.
2) The bubble. This match was originally scheduled to be played outdoors, but is now being played at a local bubble. As you may or may not know, CMS doesn’t often have to deal with indoor courts. Hop plays indoors plenty, and has already played some pretty big indoor matches this season.
3) Bottom of the lineup. While Morkovine and Mehall have been money for the Stags, 5&6 will be the two lineup spots where Hop will have an experience edge. Lim and Brown are gamers, even if both aren’t playing quite as well as years past. In a tight 3-set match, I would want my seniors out there.
All this being said, I see this as a relatively routine CMS win. CMS taking at least 2 out of 3 dubs, and clinching with wins at 2/3/4. Prediction: CMS 7-2
Bates @ Mary Washington Friday at 4 p.m.
D3AS: I’m excited to do a Mary Washington Preview considering they haven’t gotten that much love from me this year. I did enjoy watching their Spring Break come to fruition and I think it was what everyone expected. NE will probably be hard on Bates because they just lost to NCW and Bates generally doesn’t inspire confidence around these parts, but he may end up being too hard on them.
I’m going to let NE worry about Bates and see where Mary Washington can win this match. I’m not familiar with the beings of the Bates team, but I can tell you where UMW is decently strong. Their best spot in doubles is… undecided. Mary Washington is doing their typical thing where they don’t have a really strong spot across the board. All three teams have a decent chance of winning depending on the team they are playing. I have not much faith in their #3 team right now as they won 1 match against Whittier on Spring Break and that’s barely a signature win. Bates doesn’t have the deepest team but they can take that match. #1 doubles AND #2 doubles are both swing matches in my eyes, with UMW having the advantage at #2 and vice versa at #1. Gilmore/Curtis have notched some good wins this year and Gilmore is playing real well, so I’ll take the Eagles there. #1 is extremely interesting because I think Carey/Charles have a great chemistry but get overwhelmed once in a while. Planche/Ellis are a team that can do that and if they are hot they will take this. Don’t underestimate the power of home courts and familiarity though, so this one will be real close. I still take Bates.
In singles, UMW has moved Charles down to #5 singles and Griffin up to #4. I really like their #2-4 right now in Gilmore/LJ/Griffin, and Charles at 5 seems like he should be getting wins. I’ve said that before about him, so let’s make him prove it before we predict him for wins. Carey vs. Planche should be a nice match and Carey always comes up with one win I think he has no business getting every year (last year Alla of CMU, White of W&L before). This is where he does it, and UMW will take #1, two of the #2-4, and #6 singles to clinch this match 5-4.
D3NE: Tough turnaround for the Bobcats. A day after losing 7-2 to #31 NC Wesleyan, Bates must take on a top 20 team that they lost to last year in Mary Wash. The most important thing to note from Bates’ lineup is that Schwartz is once again missing. He played vs. Colby earlier this week, but wasn’t in the lineup earlier tonight. Hopefully this was a calculated rest (even though that backfired) and Adam will be back in the lineup tomorrow and the next day. Before today, I thought Bates would have rolled through NCW, and played to a close win vs Mary Wash. However, without their freshman POTM, I worry that the Cats might come out of this AS swing without a win. The NCW win is already devastating for their Pool-C hopes, but a loss to Mary Wash would just about take them out of the conversation completely (barring some big NESCAC upsets). Planche/Ellis, who were one of the best teams in the country over the fall, need to break out of their recent funk at #1 dubs. Even without Schwartz, I think this one will be a war. It’ll be interesting to see how this young-ish Bates team responds to a tough loss, and I foresee a bunch of 3-set singles matches. Overall, my NE region loving heart says 5-4 Bates, but my bigger than average brain says 5-4 Mary Wash. follow your heart. What did Babe Ruth (and by Babe Ruth, I mean the actor that also played an assistant coach in The Replacements) say? Follow your heart, kid, and you’ll never go wrong. Prediction: Bates 5-4
Bates @ Hopkins Saturday at 10 a.m.
D3AS: If I’m predicting that Bates will lose to Mary Wash, there is no way they can drive to Hopkins, play in the morning, and beat JHU on their courts. It’s just not happening. Hopkins has the advantage at the two bottom dubs spots and #1 is a toss-up. Depending on if Bates is reeling, this could be a sweep. Let’s say it’s 2-1 with Bates taking #1 doubles. Going into singles, where do you take Bates? Maybe #2 where Dubin hasn’t been all that great, but everywhere else leads me to believe that Hopkins will take this one easily after a tough loss to CMS the day before. Hop, 7-2.
D3NE: Follow my regional heart here? Not so much. Even with Schwartz I think Hopkins is on a different level from Bates. Although the Jays have played some close matches with Bates over the past three or four years, Bates’ recent doubles play just hasn’t been up to its usual level. Hopkins will be looking to rebound after a loss vs. CMS, and Bates will be on tired legs, playing its 3rd match in about 36 hours. Planche and Buxbaum should be some fun tennis, though it should be Buxy’s match to lose. If Schwartz is playing, there could be some solid singles matches throughout the lineup, but going off the assumption that he’s injured I’m afraid the Jays will just be too much at basically every lineup spot. Ellis, Feldman, and Rosen have been playing some good tennis, but they will certainly be underdogs at 2, 3, and 4, and Lim/Brown should be favored at #’s 5&6 over almost any team save for CMS and maybe Wash U. All in all, that is not a favorable matchup for the Cats. Prediction: Hopkins 8-1
45 Minutes until Hop/CMS game time! Enough banter, ASouth and NE, OUT!