Hey there, it’s ASouth Women’s here. You may not know much of me, because I have been virtually non-existent this year. While my split personality men’s side has taken over for a long time, I have arisen from the depths of my overloaded mind to give you the NCAA ASouth Update. Now, what is that, you may ask? Well, basically what I am going to do is go through each of my ASouth teams that has a shot at nationals (or is just playing in it) and do a recap of their season with some shoutouts, key points, etc. Lastly, I’ll finish off with what will be a prediction on how each will do in the NCAA tournament. Sound good, Satterfield? Yea, this is what happens when you slack off for a year but you’re your own boss. You don’t get fired, but you get ridiculed by all your fans (or should I say enemies).
@d3AtlanticSouth you have about a whole season to catch up on tho
— Michelle Satterfield (@michellesatt) May 1, 2015
ANYWAYS. An anonymous writer, no so different than myself, has already written a Women’s NCAA preview for all of you here. But, since I haven’t written much ASouth stuff this year, I figured I’d grace you guys with an article. Okay, let’s get to my first team with the highest national championship hopes and the most vocal people on twitter…
Emory Eagles
Emory came into this year as my favorite to win the title, only to be beaten by Williams pretty handily when they played them at the Fab 5 tournament (sick tournament by the way). Other than that blemish on their schedule, Emory has seriously dominated all opponents other than their 5-4 win against CMS on spring break, on the CMS home courts. Since the Williams loss, Emory has made a slight change in their lineup, moving Melissa Goodman up to #3 singles and Katarina Su down to #4 singles. Emory still has strengths at the bottom of the lineup with Freshmen of the Year candidate Bridget Harding as well as Madison Gordon, who have both been lights out this year. Against Williams the first time, the Eagles were able to take advantage at the bottom of the lineup, but really got steamrolled at the top. Before we get to projections, let’s take a look at the Eagles draw.
The Eagles really got a tough region because of their geography, getting stuck with BOTH Wash U and Sewanee in their region. Luckily for them, those two will duke it out in the Round of 32, hopefully making them tired for their match against Emory. Theoretically, Emory is way too talented for either of those teams and should be able to win that by the score of 7-2 or better. If they move on, they will play the winner of Midd/Bowdoin, and then potentially CMS in the semifinals. Both these matches are very winnable and Emory should be the favorites in both. I’m sure CMS has their ladies ready under the close watch of Coach Schwarz, but Coach Bryant has historically done well in the NCAA tournament and the Eagles should squeak by, reaching the final. That is where they will most likely do battle with Williams, where they will need an otherworldly performance from one of their top 3 players (Rosen, Satterfield, Goodman) or another doubles point from the top 2 to steal this one. They can do it, but they are really counting points here.
ASouth’s Odds to Win it All: 25%
W&L Lady Generals
The Generals came into this year with the most under-ranked team in either Men’s or Women’s, and they have proven that notion throughout the year with big wins over Hopkins, CMU, and others to solidify their resume. They have the resume to claim the #3 team in the country in terms of power rankings, as they’ve only lost to Williams and Emory so far this year, although neither of those were close matches. I’d probably say that the Lady Gennies are as close to the top tier as we can get in the ASouth. One of the strengths of this team has to be team chemistry – they are one of the only teams to keep exactly the same lineup all year in both singles and doubles. It looks like it is working as they have played lights out here at the end of the year.
One of the most encouraging things about this Generals team is the experience. They have a ton of seniors (Buell, Francis, Hupalo, Kirkland, Meighan, Vella) and most of them are playing in both the singles and doubles lineup. The draw is looking pretty good for W&L as their #2 seed is none other than Mary Wash, who the Gennies beat earlier by the score of 6-3. Either way, Mary Wash has not proven they can beat a top team and the Generals should be able to take this one by the score of 7-2 or at best, 6-3. Things get tricky in the quarterfinals, though, as W&L will be playing one of either Amherst or Hopkins (seriously, what kind of draw is this). They’ve beaten Hop before, but the Jays are a team that has played in some seriously big matches and that one is gonna be a toss-up. That being said, Amherst is the clear favorite here and I am really unsure if the Gens have the firepower to take on the Lady Jeffs. Both teams play some seriously good doubles and whoever wins the doubles point (either 2-1 or 3-0) is probably going to take this one. The #1 match between Meighan and Ip will be something else, but my gut feeling is that Amherst will have the goods to pull it out. Either way, this will be a great ride for the Generals and the quarterfinal match will be a doozy that honestly could go either way. The winner would take on Williams, where things would probably end up fizzling out for this team.
ASouth’s Odds to Win it All – <5%
ASouth’s Odds to make the Final 4 – 50%
Carnegie Mellon Tartans
The CMU Women’s team has sat around the top 10 basically all year, beating who they need to beat and losing who they were expected to lose to. This is a team that has a really consistent output but I am unsure has the ability to beat a team ranked ahead of them on the right day. They have a stud at the top of the lineup in Vanessa Pavia, but their weaknesses at #2 singles and the bottom of the lineup make them too vulnerable to upset a team. This is a team that MUST be ahead in doubles to take out a top team. Their #1 team of senior Bryn Raschke and Cori Sidell is a fairly new team that had a decent showing at the UAA taking out the Emory duo at #1 and losing close to the Wash U duo. It looks like what Coach Girard is trying to do is strengthen his #2 team that struggled for a good portion of the season and really rely on the senior leadership of Raschke at #1. Doubles is all important for the Tartans and they will get to test this new lineup against Chicago in the Sweet 16.
As our anonymous writer mentioned, CMU lucked out with this draw because they now get Chicago in the Sweet 16. It helps to be near the Central, where women’s tennis seems to go to dust. Chicago has had an up and down year and I don’t believe they can take the match from the Tartans. One thing to note is that Chicago will be hosting this regional so at least there will be some homecooking, and if Chicago can steal the doubles, things will start to get dicey. CMU has proven they can beat teams of this caliber with wins over Wash U 2x, Sewanee, and Depauw, but NCAAs is a different story. Either way, CMU just beat a team (WU) that crushed Chicago. This should be a no-brainer. In the Elite 8, CMU will face-off against CMS, who they’ve already lost 7-2 to this year. CMU could potentially win this by taking doubles (duh) and then getting a great performance from Pavia and the bottom of the lineup. Color me skeptical, and I think CMU bows out here by the score of 6-3. I have a lot of faith in CMS right now and there’s no reason to think upset from this Lady Tartans team.
ASouth’s Odds to Win it All – <2%
ASouth’s Odds to the Final 4 – 10%
Johns Hopkins Lady Jays
Johns Hopkins is probably one of the most upset teams in this tournament, because they have a #2 seed at Amherst despite only losing to teams in the top 8 this whole year. This was a team that made the final 4 last year, and they are listed as a #2 seed while Depauw is a #1 seed? Woof. I was super high on this Jays team in the beginning of the year, and that has faltered a little bit as Ashnaa Rao has not had the year I expected from her. It has culminated in her actually missing nationals, which is crazy. We’re talking about a finalist in the fall ITA nationals, not making the tournament? Wow. Rough year after a promising start for Rao, but there’s still the big matches left to play. Luckily, Hopkins runs very deep with Lehman, Austi, Chen, Law, and Herndon. The strength of this team is the bottom of the lineup and that really showed in their wins at Indoors as well as some recent wins against Mary Washington, etc.
The only match to watch for Hopkins right now is against Amherst. This is going to be a barn-burner, likely ending up 5-4 either way. Amherst doesn’t really blow you away at any spot in singles or doubles, but the thing is neither does Hopkins. This will all come down to who elevates their game in the clutch and if Hopkins can actually take the three bottom spots (spoiler, they can). If Rao can beat Ip at #1, I want to say that I can guarantee a Hopkins win but I don’t have that much bravado on the women’s side of things. All I know is that it will be a tough match and who knows, Hopkins could come out with it. If they advance, W&L awaits in a rematch 5-4 loss for the Jays. Both teams have experience, both teams have played each other, and it will be on a neutral court. Another 5-4, anyone? Hopkins season will be considered a success in my eyes if they make the Final 4 (where Williams awaits) and even more of a success if they get 3rd. Remember, this is a really young team – Herndon is the only singles starter that is graduating – so this could be even more experience for them if they make the Elite 8. Do it, Jays!!
ASouth’s Odds to Win it All – <1%
ASouth’s Odds to beat Amherst – 45%
Sewanee Tigers
The University of the South actually has already won their first match against Agnes Scott today, but that wasn’t the match that I have been looking forward to. Sewanee got the short end of the stick in the draw, getting a first round matchup despite being #12 in the country and having to go through the #11 and #2 teams to even make the quarterfinals. And we thought the Men’s NCAA committee messed up sometimes. Anyways, the Wash U/Sewanee match should be the best match in the round of 32 (I would seriously be surprised if any of those matches are this good) and I have been doing some research to try and figure out what’s going on. I’m really scared about this match for the Tigers, but their star power at the top of the lineup with Goodhue and Liles keeps them in every single match. Against the best teams, they struggle (8-1 losses to Emory and W&L), but against everyone else, the two at the top can steal 3 points for the Tigers and let the rest do the work. This team reminds me a lot like the men’s CLU teams (just go with it if you don’t know) and it’s a coincidence they got put in a stacked region.
Here’s my prediction – if both Goodhue and Liles are able to beat Ho and Silverberg from Wash U, they win this match. But, I think RHo is way too legit and will take out Goodhue, and Wash U will continue its momentum and take out the Tigers. This has been a banner year for the Tigers and they have nothing to hang their heads about if they lose in the Round of 32. I expected mid teens, they delivered high double digits. That’s a good investment right there.
ASouth’s Odds to Win it All – <1%
ASouth’s Odds to beat Wash U – 25%
Mary Washington Eagles
Why are there so many good Women’s teams in my region?! This is like the opposite of the Men’s side. C’mon men’s teams, step up your game. Or don’t, because I don’t want to write so many articles like this one. I touched a little on UMW’s bracket in the W&L section, but I did want to take some time to go through UMW’s season. They are very similar to the Men’s in which they get what they need to done, but don’t really surprise any teams. They have losses to essentially all the teams ranked ahead of them at time of play, including W&L, CMU, Hopkins, Depauw, Sewanee, and Redlands. The problem here is that UMW’s doubles either doesn’t have the talent or the fundamentals to win the point from top teams. They’ve gone down in doubles to all the teams I listed above. You can’t pull upsets if you’re not ahead in doubles, and the Eagles don’t get ahead in doubles.
Before looking forward, the Eagles will have to get past #14 MIT, who has had a great year so far and arguably a much better season than UMW. This one should definitely be closer than whatever match happens in the Sweet 16, and UMW will need doubles in this one. Like I said, doubles means upsets. Singles play has been a little different, as I’ve named a few of the UMW players as my POTWs. The Eagles middle of the lineup is pretty solid, and the rest of the lineup is really just a tossup. The Eagles will beat you where you are weak and most likely lose where you are strong. There are no true “studs” throughout the lineup, another necessary component of an upset. MIT has not put together a good effort against any of the top teams, but took out a reeling Chicago team to get to where they are today. This will be a prove it match for both teams – I don’t have much faith in either, but MIT has that win in their pocket, so I gotta go with them.
ASouth’s Odds to Win It All – <.5%
ASouth’s Odds to beat MIT – 30%
Well, well, well. Looks like I finally got an ASouth Women’s article done, and I think it was pretty good. What you think, Satterfield? We okay? Onto the Men’s Emory preview (sup boys). ASouth, OUT.