Season Preview: #2 Middlebury Panthers

Middlebury 2016 Season Preview

Last year's Runner-Up Midd squad
Last year’s NCAA Finalists

QUICK FACTS

Coach: Bob “The Legend” Hansen, 5th season at Midd.

Location: Middlebury, Vermont

Preseason Power Ranking: 3rd

Preseason ITA Ranking: 2nd

Preseason ITA Regional Ranking: 1st

Twitter Handle: @middtennis. Pretty good with score updates, not the quickest, but very reliable. Also good for a couple over the top hashtags.

Key Additions: Peter Martin (3-star from California), Cole Sutton (2-star from Maryland), Alejandro Martin Perez (Spain), Bryce Parmelly (Assistant Coach)

Key Departures: Peter Heidrich (#1 doubles), Chris Frost (#3 doubles), Courtney Mountifield (#5-6 singles àFall season assistant coach!)

Most positive extreme overreaction I’ve heard during the fall: “This is Midd’s year, plain and simple. The top of the lineup is the best in the country, they always play good doubles, and Coach Hansen is on his way to yet another NCAA title.”

Most negative extreme overreaction I’ve heard during the fall: “No Frons and no Jackson, Midd’s lack of depth is going to come back to bite them when it matters most. I smell an upset at NCAAs.”

OVERVIEW

Happy Friday, boys and girls, and TGID3NELSP. That’s God it’s D3NE’s last season preview for you laymen…try to keep up. As always here at The Blog, we like to save the best for last. Who better to finish up preview season than the team that multiple bloggers think has a real chance to win the 2016 NCAA Championship? This year’s Middlebury squad is going to be a force, but does have some holes. Let’s start with the good, they will have the best #1-2 combo in the entire country, and quite possibly the strongest top 4. Farrell proved to be a man amongst DIII boys this fall, and each of Midd’s top 4 are currently regionally ranked in the top-17. They are led by the Magic Man himself in Bob Hansen, who has led the Panthers  to a better finish in each of his first four season in Vermont (Sweet 16 in 2012, Quarters in 2013, Semis in 2014, and Finals in 2015.) The only way to continue the train of improvement is by winning it all in 2016. This year, Hansen brought in his old buddy Bryce Parmelly to assist him. Coach Parmelly was Hansen’s longtime assistant at UCSC, and took over the program when the latter left for Vermont. Parmelly was a doubles All American, won 4 titles with Hansen as an assistant coach, and might just provide the something extra to get this Panther team over the hump. However, even though the Panthers only graduated a couple of players, they were hit with a couple of unexpected losses. Jackson Frons does not appear to be on the roster, which would be a big loss at #4-5 singles. Commenter favorite Allen Jackson is also gone for the spring while he recovers from surgery. He’ll be back next year (in a 5th year at Midd but his final year of eligibility), but is a potential big loss at #6 singles as he had been playing very well all fall. Even with a couple of surprising losses, this team is still led by a couple of seniors with a ton of NCAA experience in Smolyar and Campbell. The doubles teams are a bit up in the air after the loss of Heidrich, but Palmer Campbell is a multiple time doubles All American, and should be able to anchor the top spot. There are certainly some questions facing this Midd team: Has Farrell really made the jump? Can Schlanger/van der Geest compete against the top teams? What are the doubles pairings going to be? But I do not believe that there is truly a dominant team this year. Only a few things have to break Midd’s way for them to take home the title in 2016, and I believe that they have just a good a chance as any other team out there in DIII land.

Projected Singles Lineup

Noah Farrell, undisputed champion of the DIII world
Noah Farrell, undisputed champion of the DIII world

Noah Farrell, Sophomore, UTR 13.02, Range #1-#2: If the fall is any indication of what is to come, then Noah Farrell might just have to go pro. This fall, this skinny little kid from Wilton Connecticut absolutely owned DIII tennis. He won the Middlebury Invite, he won the NE ITA, and he won Small College Nationals, ALL WITHOUT DROPPING A SINGLE FREAKIN SET. Pretty damn phenomenal. A total fall record of 14-0 against DIII competition including wins (in chronological order) over the Tufts #1, RPI #1, Midd #3, Brandeis #1, Tufts #3, Nichols #1, Williams #4, Williams #1, Wesleyan #2, Bowdoin #2, Amherst #1 Chicago #1, Gustavus #1, and Emory #1. Let me say it again, ALL WITHOUT LOSING A SET. Those are legitimately some of the best players in the country (Yaraghi, Chua, Rafe), and Noah made it look easy. I don’t see how he continues at this pace, but even if he wins the majority of those matches (and drops a few sets along the way) he’s still going to be one of the best players in the country. It’s not a huge leap from his freshman year when he played #2 and played it to the tune of 13-6, but Coach Hansen has to be more than pleased when he thinks about having two and a half more years of Farrell leading this team. The only reason that Noah might possibly maybe not play #1 singles is because of…

Ari Smolyar, Senior, UTR 12.82, Range #1-#2: On paper, Ari is the best #2 in the country and it’s not really that close. Ari went 16-3 at #1 for the Panthers last year, with his three losses coming to Yaraghi 11-9 in a superbreaker, and twice to eventual Triple Crown winner Warren Wood. This fall Ari has taken a backseat to Mr. Farrell, but he still has wins over Scott (Bates #2-3), Wise (RPI #1-2), Thylen (Babson #1), Rosen (Bates #1), Reid (spelled correctly Mr Speer?) (Colby #1), and Telkedzhiev (Tufts #1). He lost in the ITA quarters to Tercek (Bowdoin #2), but is still the #7 player in the region. Some of that is still based off last year, but Ari has the best chance of any #2 to make NCAAs (The other options are Zykov and Tercek), but the amount of capable #1’s this year I don’t see many #2’s getting a shot. Ari is now a captain of this team, and will have to lead with more than just his singles play. Neither Ari nor Noah has ever been a #1 doubles player, but the tandem was a very good #2 team last year. If Campbell and de Quant work out together, then look for Ari and Noah to rekindle their partnership again this spring.

Palmer Campbell, Senior, UTR 12.43, Range #3-#4: Another senior captain, Palmer is pretty locked in at the #3 spot this spring. The only conceivable way I see him falling is if De Quant took his game to a whole other level in the off season, but having an All-American start at #3 is a nice option for Coach Hansen to hang his floppy hat on. Campbell’s fall did not quite compare to Noah or Ari’s, but he did get a nice win over Rosen (Bates #1). His losses this fall came to Farrell and Tercek (Bowdoin #2) twice. Those are not bad losses, but we’re accustomed to seeing a little more out of Palmer in the fall. Last spring Palmer went 14-3 at #3, and made the NCAA doubles semis with Peter Heidrich (now graduated). He is locked into the #1 dubs spot this year, the only question is who will be joining him. Campbell played with both Smolyar and De Quant this fall, and I think we’re still much too far away from a possible Derbani/Campbell team, so my guess is De Quant is the guy. Speaking of the man with the devilishly charming accent…

William de Quant, Sophomore, UTR 12.00, Range #4-#5: That’s a damn high UTR for a guy slotting in at #4 in the singles lineup. De Quant burst onto the scene last spring going 16-3 while playing mainly #5. He scored wins over Goodman (Emory #4/5), Grodecki (Williams #4), Rosen (Bates #1), Wolstencroft 2x (ex-Bowdoin #5), and Tsai (Chicago #5), and led Tercek (Bowdoin #2) 5-2 in the 3rd set when the NESCAC semifinal was called. Considering De Quant wasn’t going to start last year, I’d call that a fairly successful first year. Will is going to have to bring his game up a notch this year, but after looking at his fall results I don’t think that is going to be an issue. He won the B-Flight at Middlebury, beating a couple of guys hoping to play #6 for Trinity Ct, Brandeis, and Tufts, and Ben Battle (Tufts likely #4 when healthy) along the way. He then took down Carl Reid (Colby #1 and former All-American) in the 1st round of the ITA (he lost to Cauneac (MIT #1-2) in the 2nd Will then beat Gupte (Tufts #2) at the Bates Tournament, but then lost to Trinka (Bowdoin #1) in a superbreaker. De Quant also scored a good end of season win against Ali (Tufts #3) at the Tufts Invitational. All in all, a great fall for Mr. de Quant and big hopes going into 2016. With the likely loss of Frons, Will has a larger load to carry, but he seems ready for the task.

Timo van der Geest, Sophomore, UTR 10.83, Range #5-bench: Now we get into the unknown portion of Midd’s lineup. Their top 4 should be able to compete with, and probably be favored against any team (the only contenders that come to mind are Chicago, Amherst, and Trinity Tx). Timo played a little #6 last year, and beat the guys he should have. He did get one unexpected win over Raghavan (Williams #5), but lost (albeit closely) to both Roddy (Bowdoin #5-6), and Arnaboldi (Amherst #6-bench). He made the 3rd round of the ITA, earning a 2nd round win over Samson (Wesleyan freshman #5-6) via default, and lost in 3-sets to Gupte (Tufts #2). Timo lost in the 1st round at Bates to Jacobson (Tufts #4-5), and lost to Ali (Tufts #3) in the 2nd round at Middlebury. Even with the up and down fall, Timo has as much if not more match experience than anybody else on this list (he and Schlanger are about equivalent). It’s pretty much a toss-up in my mind as to who starts at #5 and who starts at #6, but for now I’m going with VDG.

Kyle Schlanger, Sophomore, UTR 11.31 Range #5-bench: Another very talented sophomore, Schlanger actually had a better fall than VDG. He beat Quijano (Bates #4-6) in the 1st round at Midd, but lost to Brockman (Tufts #5-bench) in the 2nd round of the B-Flight. He didn’t get an ITA selection but he did make the finals of the C-Flight at Bates. Along the way he beat Swerdlick (Skidmore #5-bench), Carstens (Bowdoin freshman #6-bench), and lost to Roddy (Bowdoin #5-6) in a superbreaker in the finals. Roddy beat Schlanger 2&2 last year, so this is improvement at the least. Schlanger actually played above VDG at the end of last year, playing #6 at NCAAS. That’s where he lost to Roddy, Hull (CMS #2) and was up a set and 4-0 on D. Liu (Chicago #5-6). That experience can only be good for young Kyle, and I expect we see him in the singles lineup come opening day. He is also a decent bet to crack the doubles lineup. I think he has a better shot than VDG, and a lot of it will depend on Derbani’s game/health. If Schlanger can have a big year for the Panthers, they are going to be really difficult to beat.

  • Hamid Derbani, Junior, UTR 10.95, Range #5-#bench: Derbani is the only junior on this Panther team, and therefore will be thrust into a leadership role in a rebuilding year next year whether he likes it or not. Coach Hansen would be wise to give the junior some experience this year if he is the one that will be guiding the Panthers in 2017. Hamid didn’t play a lick last year due to a wrist injury, and lost to Nick Cary and Ethan Chen from Tufts this fall, both of whom are vying (along with like five other guys) for the Tufts #6 spot. Once Derbani shakes off some of the rust and gets his fitness back on point, he might contribute this year, especially in the doubles lineup given his big style of play.
  • Jackson Frons, Senior, UTR 12.15, Range 3-#Not on the team: Biggest wild card for the Panthers: is Jackson Frons on the team. My sources say that he isn’t, but nobody has 100% confirmed or denied it. Given that I don’t think he’ll be a part of this year’s Midd team, I won’t spend too much time on his accolades. Just know that the senior would have played somewhere around #4-5 depending on De Quant’s development. Frons was a very good #4 last year, and would have been close to an untouchable #5. That would have made Midd a favorite at four singles spots (#1, 2, 3, 5) in almost every match they play. The loss of Frons (and to a lesser extent Jackson) puts a big question mark on the #5-6 players, and puts more pressure on De Quant to win at #4. Midd’s #5-6 won’t be bad, but they are a weak spot on this team with Frons, and that comes into play most against conference teams with good depth like Amherst, Bowdoin, Williams, Wesleyan, etc.
  • Peter Martin, Cole Sutton, Alejandro Perez, Freshman, UTRs 11.15, 11.56, N/A Range #6-bench: The freshmen get a mention here because, as you can see, Midd is not all THAT deep. The loss of Jackson and possible loss of Frons might not devastate Midd’s national championship chances, but it does really hurt the depth. Derbani is totally unproven, and neither Timo nor Kyle has seen too much time in the lineup. If somebody gets hurt, a freshman might have to step up. Martin and Sutton had about equivalent falls, neither one was extraordinarily impressive. That being said, both had a couple of solid wins at the Tufts Invitational. We know basically nothing about Perez, seeing as the poor kid is recovering from shoulder surgery. If Midd is going to make an NCAA title push, these freshmen are not going to see the lineup; however, even a bench-ridden NCAA title run is good experience for these young guns moving forwards.

YOU CAN SEE THE MIDDLEBURY SCHEDULE HERE

Bagheera, party of 1?
Bagheera, party of 1?

Schedule Analysis: Midd starts its season in the middle of March with 3 NESCAC matches in two weekends. The Panthers open by hosting Bates and Hamilton on the same day, and host Wesleyan the following week. As long as Midd has figured out its some semblance of its doubles teams, they should have no real issue with Bates. Wesleyan is a little different because the Cardinals have a bit more firepower all the way through their lineup. That being said, any upset through those first three matches would be more than shocking. Next, Midd heads to Cali where they have a few warm-up matches before getting to Pomona-Pitzer and CMS. Both those matches should be really fun, and Midd will be looking to avenge 2015 losses to both squads. That CMS match might well end up being a preview of an NCAA quarter or semifinal.

The Panthers return home at the start of April for the brunt of their NESCAC schedule. Midd travels to Williams and Tufts in the same weekend, and then hosts Bowdoin and Amherst in back to back weekends. If Midd loses to CMS, they will not be able to afford a loss here to anybody but Amherst and still have high hopes for a #1 seed. Williams and Bowdoin present possible issues for the Panthers due to their depth (and Williams’ doubles play), while Amherst can match strength for strength at the top of the lineup. If Midd gets through this portion of its schedule unscathed, they will be guaranteed a #1 seed at NCAAs even with a loss at NESCACs (barring disaster to Trinity Ct or Skidmore).

Midd ends its regular season with Conn, Nichols, Trinity Ct, and Skidmore, which should all add to the Panther’s win column. Then, NESCACs at Bates. Midd will very likely be a top 2 seed, and is the odds on favorite to be the #1 seed. If they win NESCACs, they are looking at a top 2-3 seed in the country, depending on how Chicago and CMS play out their schedules. That means hosting their own region, a #2 seed likely worse than Bowdoin (or Williams or whoever the #3 NESCAC team is), and an easier quarterfinal round opponent (maybe Emory or Wash U, although its weird to think of them as easier NCAA opponents).

Season Prediction: I said it in the overview and I’ll say it again here, Midd is one of only a handful of teams that I think has the potential to win the NCAA Tournament in 2016. Their spring break matches with PP and CMS should be telling, but I think the Panthers leave the west coast with a loss. Butts can play with Farrell, Hull has the game to beat Smolyar, and Mork can grind down either Campbell or de Quant. CMS has a recent history of producing extremely strong depth, and should be favored there. I see a nail-biter, but a 5-4 or 6-3 CMS win. Midd returns home more motivated, and work their way to an undefeated NESCAC season, beating either Amherst or Bowdoin in the NESCAC finals, and earning the #3 overall seed at the NCAA Tournament. Getting the Amherst monkey off its back will be big for Hansen and Midd. The Panthers have lost six of the last seven matches between the two teams, including a 9-0 thumping last year. If they can get past Amherst (maybe 2x), the NCAA path eventually leads to a rematch with CMS in the semis, which Midd wins because of Hansen magic, vaulting them to a 2nd consecutive NCAA final. This time, there is no denying Hansen or his seniors, and Midd takes home the crown! Either Schlanger or VDG will have to step up and play some pretty gnarly #6 to make this happen, but we all should know to never bet against Hansen in an NCAA Tournament match that’s up for grabs. 2016, the year of the Panther! #KitchenSink

Leave a Comment