2/28-3/2 Weekend Preview: Central & ASouth

Let us try to get over the post Indoors lull and back into some great in region dual matches that are happening this coming weekend. I (D3Central) will be covering three key matches, while D3ASouth has one. Happy reading and as always, comments are welcome.

Feb 28th

Whitewater vs. Chicago

I haven’t fully given up on Chicago yet, but this match needs to be close for it to have an effect on my thoughts about the Maroons. I honestly think it will be and even has a slight chance of an upset strictly based on match-ups. In singles, Humphreys and Kranz should be a great battle at one. The question still remains about Sabada and right now you have to say he still is unable to return to the fall form so the edge goes to Shklyar. He did beat a D-1 guy from Illinois-Chicago this weekend so that has to be a positive. The reason why I think this match gets interesting is I would probably favor Chicago at 3, 4, 5, and 6. Whitewater has shown weakness at these positions and Chicago has depth if nothing else. There is no doubt in my mind that Chicago has more talent then Whitewater, but they also have shown that talent doesn’t exactly mean much. With Sun (3 singles), Bhargava (4 singles), Franklin (5 singles), and Zheng (6 singles), I would predict they will get three points from that bunch. 1 singles is a toss up and it may end up coming down to that match for the team score. In terms of doubles, the top spot will be interesting as both Shklyar/Balkin and Sabada/Kranz are potential national qualifiers. I would give the edge to Whitewater at 2 doubles and three is also up in the air. A sweep by either team would lock up the match most likely and WW has the ability to do that, but I don’t expect either team to sweep. The problem with Chicago is they all have the ability to win the big matches, but rarely do they all come to play on the same day. So here it is and I hate that I am doing this, but I pick Chicago to win this match 5-4. Whitewater will take the doubles lead 2-1, but won’t be able to find 3 singles wins to pull it off. I honestly hope that I am wrong here because it will continue to prove that coaching, preparation, and desire will trump everything. I promise, if WW wins handily, I won’t cover another Chicago match all season!

March 1st

Chicago vs. Gustavus

On the other side of the coin, Chicago does not match up well against Gustavus at all. The only question that really has yet to be answered in this one is will Gustavus doubles be the dominant force of old, or lay an egg like they did against Wash U. Now Wash U proved that they are pretty good (understatement of the year) this past weekend so I will give them a pass for that match. Again, do I think Chicago is more talented? Absolutely! Do I think they win this match, I do not. Gustavus proved they can play with the big boys in singles against Wash U as that match was close up and down the lineup. I give Smith-Dennis the edge at 1 and probably make it almost dead even throughout the rest of the lineup, but again Chicago doesn’t seem to show up when they need to most. Without going into too much detail, I would predict Gustavus to come out with a 6-3 victory. If Gustavus’s doubles aren’t firing, then things change quickly. Chicago would shut every doubter (myself included) up with a sweep of both WW and GAC. It is a tall order to fill and honestly doable, but I just can’t see them pulling this one out. Gustavus 6-3

March 2nd

Whitewater vs. Gustavus

These two teams played twice last year with the Gusties winning both of them (6-3 in the regular season and 5-3 at nationals). I see a similar trend with this match-up as both teams lost key players to graduation. Shklyar has a direct comfortable win over Smith-Dennis so it will be interesting to see who plays 1 in this match. Humphreys deserves to, but it is hard to overlook last year’s result for Shklyar. As before, doubles will be a big determining factor for the match and I would give the edge to the Warhawks. Outside of Wash U, Gustavus hasn’t been tested so it is a guessing game to see what they can bring. I wish I didn’t have to make this prediction until after I saw both of the teams results against Chicago, but I am going to lean a bit on the side of history with this one and take Gustavus. This could easily go either way particularly if Whitewater is up after doubles 2-1 or 3-0 which I think they will be (2-1). Leaning on the two horses out front (Shklyar and Humphreys) to take care of their matches makes anything possible,  but it is just a matter of finding that elusive 5th point. I am going to say 5-4 Gustavus coming back from a 2-1 deficit from doubles.

#10 Johns Hopkins vs. #22 Washington & Lee

Thankfully, I’ve only got one match this weekend to preview after a ridiculous busy weekend last week, so I’ll be sure to let some of the other writers handle the twitter updates and recaps.  I still do have to do a preview, though.  This is a match in which we’ll see the runner up from Indoors, Johns Hopkins, trying to continue their momentum as they take on an opponent they see every year.  Washington & Lee, currently ranked #22, is a team we really haven’t seen important DIII action from this year and it will be nice to see their lineups for once.  Overall, I don’t think that the Generals will be able to challenge the Jays for a team win, but there definitely will be some interesting matchups in this one.

In doubles, we start off with the #1 regional team from last year, Shamshiri and Holt against the newly crowned ITA champions from this year, Buxbaum and Walsh.  I’m really pumped for this matchup because these two teams could honestly be the #1 and #2 teams in the region.  Shamshiri and Holt took the ASouth by storm last year, resulting in a deep NCAA tournament run that should have the Generals excited for this year.  This will be a rematch of the ITA tournament in which Buxbaum and Walsh had a comeback win against this very team in the semifinals.  On their home courts, I think Shamshiri and Holt take this one in a really close one.  At the other two spots, Hopkins has a definite advantage.  It’ll be interesting to see what the Generals do at those spots, but I don’t think it matters with the performance the Jays just put up at indoors.  I fully expect a 2-1 lead for the Jays going into the singles play.

Singles is where this one might get a little ugly.  Hopkins showed at Indoors that their singles lineup is pretty solid top to bottom.  The depth of Hopkins will definitely take advantage at the bottom of the lineup, where Dubin, Lim, and Weissler will all have significant talent advantages over their opponents.  I don’t think the Jays have a chance to lose any of those matches.  At the top is where it’ll get interesting.  The match I’m most looking forward to will be Michael Holt versus Tanner Brown.  Brown struggled a bit at #2 at Indoors, but that was against the best teams in the nation.  Unfortunately for Brown, Holt could probably play a decent 1 singles for the Generals.  This will be an interesting test for Brown as he works his way back into form.  I think Brown will get back on track with Sunday’s match and be able to take Holt in two close, grinding sets.  At the top of the lineup, Shamshiri will be facing off against Buxbaum.  We haven’t seen Shamshiri yet this spring season so I’m hoping that he can keep it close with a talented player in Buxbaum.  However, I expect Buxbaum to win this one fairly routinely, maybe something like 3 and 4.  Hwang for Hopkins definitely has an advantage at #3 but if it’s Chris Hu there, that match will definitely have some firepower.  As for the total match, I’m not going against a hot powerhouse team and I’m picking the Jays, 8-1.

#27 Stevens Tech @ NR Swarthmore Garnet

This was a match that admittedly flew under my radar, probably because Stevens isn’t actually my team (cough, D3NE, cough).  But it seems like I have inherited them and at least it gives me another ranked team to cover.  However, how long they will be ranked is one of my questions for the season.  Swarthmore is a team that is eager to get back into the top 30, especially after a very disappointing season that dropped them last year.  I think that this is probably going to be their best chance to get back into things, especially being at home.

Doubles has always been a bit of a weak spot for the Garnet.  This could be a real game changer as Stevens doubles has been solid since the spring season last year, so Swarthmore would do good to at least get themselves one point.  I think Stevens has an advantage at #1 with their new team of Foran and Perch, although it will be a tough match against a veteran team in Kaye/Lands.  Swarthmore will probably have the advantage at #3 doubles, as the team of Carcione/Park have a good amount of doubles skill and the Stevens team just lost to a really weak #3 team from Babson.  That’s pretty bad.  #2 doubles will be the real swing match and it couldn’t be a more talented group.  It’ll feature Stevens’ resident hero, Matthew Heinrich, playing with Drake against Collard/Vernier.  This is a big match because if Stevens doesn’t take a 2-1 lead in doubles, they’ll run into Swat’s strength in singles.  I’m going to go with the Swat team of Collard/Vernier in a very close one decided in a tiebreaker.

With a 2-1 lead, Swarthmore will really be in the driver’s seat and they should be able to take advantage of the bottom of the Stevens lineup.  I expect them to win at least 2 of 3 of the bottom three singles spots in the lineup, most likely #4 and #5.  I don’t have much faith in either #6 guy so that really looks like a toss-up to me. After that, I think Kaye definitely has the advantage at #2 singles over Foran, however Foran could surprise us as he did take a set off of Charles of Mary Wash just a couple weeks ago.  On his home courts, Kaye will come out in a close one in three sets.  That already makes it 5 points for Swarthmore, but I think they also have a solid #3 player in Preston Poon who has historically done well in singles despite being fairly unknown.  Stevens really has a big drop off after #2 and Swat should be able to take advantage.  The match of the day that hasn’t been mentioned is clearly #1 singles.  Resident favorite Heinrich goes up against Collard, which should be a tight match between two #1s trying to prove themselves.  I’ve got Heinrich in two close sets.  Unfortunately, it’s not enough for the Ducks as Swat comes out with a 6-3 win.

#5 Kenyon College @ NR Sewanee Tigers – is this Kenyon’s spring break? hahahaha

I cannot believe this is happening but it is.  Let’s hope I get this thing out before 12 o clock so I can say that I did not have to spend too much time on this.  Obviously, this match isn’t going to be very close from a team perspective.  However, there are several people out there on the interwebs that believe some of these individual matches are going to be fairly close and want to see some Sewanee in their life.  I’ll be honest, I mistakenly left Sewanee off of my Best of the Rest column and that was a mistake.  They are probably the second best unranked team in the ASouth after Swarthmore, especially now that NCW has fallen off a cliff.  Does that mean they are ready to challenge the Lords?  Absolutely not.

Doubles should be pretty quick, with no doubt in my mind.  As of late, the Lords have really struggled at doubles but I would expect them to not be f*c.. messing around (ha) and try and get these matches done fairly quickly.  I am eager to see which teams the Lords throw out there for this, but if they go with their Indoor Nationals teams it’ll be Rosensteel/Geier, Raz/Heerboth, and unknown at #3.  All those teams are much better than the Sewanee teams, and it’s tough because the Tigers clear strength is at #1 doubles.  Thing is, Rosensteel and Geier have been very good there.  That’ll be the closest match but I’m thinking nothing better than 8-5 across the board.

IN SINGLES, which everyone seems to be looking forward to, Kenyon will scrape people at the bottom of the lineup.  #4-6 singles have 0 chance to win barring injury/benchings, etc.  The three “matches to watch” will be at the top of the lineup, especially at #1 singles. 4-star (yes, 4 star! Have we seen that before?) Rand Jackson will face off against either Raz/Heerboth, depending on what the lineup is.  If it’s Heerboth, Wade wins in two easy sets.  If it’s Raz, it would really depend on how he’s playing but I still think he’ll be able to overpower Jackson.  It’s tough to step your level up to the Kenyon competition when you’re used to playing the Piedmonts of the world and I think the lack of competition will hurt him here.  Laughlin of Sewanee will have a really tough time with either Heerboth/Raz as well, and he’s even less equipped to beat them.  Smooth sailing at 2 for Kenyon.  THEN we have you know, the ITA Central champion Sam Geier, coming off wins against Halpern, Treacy, and Klawitter all in a row. Yea. So I pick 9-0 Lords.