I was going to start this article with a joke about a Lion, and Warhawk, and a Banana Slug, but I’m not funny enough to make it worth, so I’ll spare you.
And so begins my preview of the three teams vying for the (I’m assuming) one spot into the NCAA tournament via Pool B. A quick refresher on Pool B: it’s designed for teams that are either independent or in a conference that doesn’t have an automatic bid for the winner (Pool A). There’s a decently long list of teams that are eligible, but the only three that have a realistic shot are The College of New Jersey, Wisconsin-Whitewater, and UC-Santa Cruz. For some historical perspective: all three of these teams have been in the national rankings and would consistently make the tournament. UC-Santa Cruz has actually won the national championship seven times (I only mention this because I’m not sure if our younger readers even know this…). Anyway, it’s a fairly new thing that there’s only one Pool B spot, and that’s created an interesting predicament in the past few years about how to compare these three teams. Not unsurprisingly, being so spread out geographically (and with UCSC and TCNJ not usually traveling very extensively) means they rarely have many common opponents, much less head to head matchups. That changes this year, however!
This spring we’re going to see:
3/22 TCNJ vs UWW @ Mary Washington
4/6 UCSC @ UWW
Massive shout out to the coaches for getting these matches on the schedule. I can’t imagine it was easy to convince the powers that be in California that the tennis team needed to take a trip to Iowa and Wisconsin, and similarly major props to Coach Barnes for getting BOTH Pool B rivals on the schedule.
So what do these matchups mean? It’s pretty self explanatory—they should give us a pretty good idea of which team is the most deserving of the Pool B bid based on direct results. Certainly there are scenarios where everything gets messy (i.e. TCNJ and UCSC both beat UWW, which would be tricky because they have zero other common opponents). But this is a huge improvement over last year, and particularly for UWW, their destiny lies in their own hands.
Okay, so that’s what’s at stake here and honestly, that’s priority number one for all of these teams this year. I’m sure if you asked any player/coach on these teams what one of their biggest goals would be this year, the answer would be to make NCAAs. Some other good goals might include:
TCNJ
- Sneak into the ITA national rankings. I say “sneak” because it sometimes feels like there are a ton of teams that could go in the 35-40 range, and if TCNJ can win the matches they are supposed to and beat Stevens or NYU (or both!) I don’t think it’s unreasonable to see the committee slotting the Lions in at #40.
- Learn how to win. This is a team with a lot of seniors, but also five freshman. The children are the future. Honestly, none of the seniors seem poised for particularly big things individually, but it’s going to be key for them to leave a legacy of maximizing talent and getting the most out of yourself. TCNJ has never had any studs—they get a lot out of 2 and 3-stars, and with four freshman 2-stars, setting them on the right path has got to be a priority this year.
UWW
- Get some swagger back. It’s not that long ago that the Warhawks were one of the top teams in the Central. They were loud, fiery, and gritty. The fear they used to strike in opponents is more or less gone, and while a lot of that has to do with talent, I also think this team needs to develop a more intimidating identity this year. It didn’t help that last year’s top two players were 1. Injured half the time or 2. Not physically imposing. Obviously, neither of those two things are their faults, so don’t take this the wrong way—but my read on things is that UWW could stand to put the “War” back in Warhawks.
- From a scheduling standpoint, Coach Barnes has put together an absolute masterpiece, with excellent matches throughout the season and, as usual, a ton of opportunities against a variety of teams. (I count 22 dual matches). So with so many great matches, I’m sure the Warhawks are hoping to find that signature win to bring them back into the top 40 (at least).
UCSC
- Prove that the fall dual matches were a fluke. An 8-1 loss to George Fox and a 7-2 loss to Pacific were ugly endings to a fall that also had the excellent singles run of Chad LeDuff to the ITA Cup final. The Slugs apparently were missing some starters, so we’ll give them the benefit of the doubt, but they’ll need to prove to us (and the ranking/NCAA committee) that they are legit. In my eyes, they really should have the goal of winning all their matches against California schools, with the exception of CMS. The biggest match of the litter will be against Caltech on 2/10, and based off the fall, the edge certainly goes to the Beavers.
- The Slugs always have a pretty thin schedule, though it’s definitely better this year. One of their best chances for a statement will be against Colby. I don’t know a ton about the Mules this year (D3RegionalNEW will have them covered), but that’s a match I would imagine Cruz has to win if they have plans to go dancing.
- Finally, another goal for UC-Santa Cruz is one we’ve written about before: find a full-time coach who can help bring the program back to glory (or as close to glory as is possible—I think the national championship days are probably over).
Team Breakdowns
TCNJ
Recap of last year: Definitely more of a down year than in the past for TCNJ. Their best win was 5-4 over Ithaca, with losses to Mary Washington, Stevens, NYU, Haverford, RPI and Salisbury. Mitchel Sanders had a tough year at #1, and the Lions struggled on the doubles court more than usual.
What’s new: Among the five freshmen is Matthew Michibata, a three star (UTR 10.91) who is about as solid a recruit as TCNJ tends to get. He’s joined by four 2-stars, and if you know me, you know I love the two-stars of this world, so I’m optimistic that at least one or two of them can follow the TCNJ blueprint of developing talent well and be a solid lower lineup guy this year. Another positive note is that TCNJ only graduated one guy—Chris D’Agostino, who only played sparingly at #6 last year. So as a whole, there’s a lot more addition than subtraction in 2019 for the Lions.
Season Outlook: I think we can expect a modest improvement in 2019. Nothing tells me that TCNJ is going to make a huge jump, but they have a lot of guys in the 10 UTR range, which provides a decent foundation that hopefully can spur a couple on to develop further. They have a bunch of matches that could be tight, including chances for revenge against Mary Washington, Stevens, Salisbury, NYU, and Haverford. Salisbury and Haverford should definitely be priorities to avenge last year’s losses, with Stevens and NYU providing great (and not unrealistic) opportunities for some good resume wins. Obviously the first priority is beating UW-Whitewater on March 22, and although both teams have matching UTR Power 6’s of 62, I give the slight edge to TCNJ based on depth. I also think UC-Santa Cruz will beat UWW, which means resume wins are going to be essential for TCNJ and Cruz.
UWW
Recap of last year: The Warhawks beat all the teams they “should” beat, including a bunch of ranked Central teams like Wabash, Wheaton, Augie, and OWU. Unfortunately, they weren’t able to capitalize on their opportunities for big wins, most notably a 6-3 loss to Kzoo and an 8-1 loss to Coe. Things almost got really ugly when they barely squeaked by UW-La Crosse 5-4 late in the year, but all things considered a year that UWW doesn’t make the NCAA tournament is going to leave the Warhawks a bit disappointed.
What’s new: Just like TCNJ, Whitewater brings in five freshmen, including one three star in Ryan Mitchell. The 3-star is a bit misleading though, as Mitchell was ranked just inside the top 500 and has only a 10.01 UTR. Not bad, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Basically, everything I said about two-stars and development for TCNJ goes for UWW as well. Shoutout to one of my favorite D3 Players of all time Jake Humphreys. On the graduation front, Zane Navratil and Grant Thompson are both gone, and though they took their fair share of losses, it’s never easy to lose two of your top guys and leaders. On the bright side, Thompson is back as an assistant coach!
Season Outlook: Not sure if there’s any reason to believe this year is going to be an improvement—results wise, at least—for UWW. They’ve got six guys in a UTR range from 10.61-10.01, so the lineup is completely up for grabs, but I think that just like last year, the Warhawks aren’t going to be winning much at 1 or 2. The X factor, as always, is doubles, and while I have no idea how their doubles looks right now, UTR certainly doesn’t tell the full story, and if UWW can find some solid teams and grab some doubles leads, you never know what can happen from there. Key matches are obviously UCSC and TCNJ, as well as Coe, a traditional rival and also the only common opponent for UWW and UCSC. I’d also highlight UW-La Crosse based on how close that match was last season—who knows, maybe UW-La Crosse will deserve some consideration for the Pool B spot as well?
UCSC
Recap of last year: Wins over George Fox, Whittier, and Cal Lu were all the Slugs needed to snag the Pool B spot, despite losses to Middlebury, Pomona-Pitzer, Whitman, and CMS twice (including a surprisingly close 6-3). Chad LeDuff also made NCAAs, which was a bright spot and set the stage for his impressive fall this season.
What’s new: The two freshmen on the roster have sub 9 UTRs, though one of them (David Jackson) was playing #2 this fall (in a lineup without LeDuff). Not sure if that’s a good thing or a bad thing, but based on how that match went, probably bad. The Slugs also lose two guys to graduation in Chad Stone and AJ Flora, who both contributed significantly and will have big shoes to fill. The other thing that’s new is that Chad LeDuff has proven himself to be one of the best players in the country, and should be favored (or at least a toss up) in every match he plays.
Season Outlook: Don’t overlook the importance of LeDuff. Among Pool B teams he is by far the best player, and he’s going to be relied upon all year to get two points per match. I think Cruz will beat UWW, though if that match is played indoors it’s obviously a big advantage for the Warhawks, but I could definitely see Cruz beating UWW and not getting in because TCNJ has better resume wins. But if Cruz can top Coe and Colby in addition to UWW (and all the bottom SCIAC teams), then I think they are in good shape. Unlike in year’s past, if Cruz misses the tournament, they can’t blame their schedule, which is kind of a win in itself, as they will be able to let the racquets do the talking!
I think 2000 words is enough, so I’ll skip the Thanksgiving food takes I had planned. Enjoy the food, family, and good times! I’m thankful for each and every one of you that reads and supports us!
Great read! Thanks