Surprise, late night preview incoming! Spring is in the air and matches have begun across the country, but Sewanee isn’t slacking… they’re busy running up mountains training before their season starts next weekend. This is a big season for the Tigers and I believe that they might have the right pieces in place to make the jump this season into the top 20, but could also be vulnerable under first year (ish) head coach Felix Mann, so enough of my blabbering, let’s dive in!
Location: Sewanee, TN
Coach: Felix Mann (1st Seasonish)
ITA National Ranking: 23
ITA Regional Ranking: 7 (Atlantic South)
Blog Power Ranking: 27
Twitter Handle: @USouthTennis
UTR Power 6: 68
Key Departures: Davis Owen
Key Additions: Brandon Kali (3 Star, UTR 11.26) and a couple of other recruits that could develop in the future
Player(s) to Watch: Jordan Brewer and Andres Carro – While senior Jack Gray, also known as Jackson Grug, Jek Groh, Jocko Graf, amongst other names was my gut reaction, after digging in a little deeper, I decided to go with this junior duo. They had some decent results in doubles last year and both were very solid in singles with an overall record of 24-11 between predominantly the 2-4 singles spots. This season I have these two pegged as 2 and 3 singles and 1 or 2 doubles. If the Tigers can get 2 out of 3 points from these two (assuming they’re doubles partners), then they will be sitting pretty in most of their matches.
Lineup Analysis:
1 Singles: Jack Gray (UTR 11.68) – The two time NCAA qualifying, music writing and playing senior should slot in at the top of the lineup. His 12-7 season last year was good enough to qualify for NCAAs with regional wins over NC Wesleyan’s Sebastian Sikh, Mary Washington’s Matt Miles and Swarthmore’s Mark Fallati. Looking ahead, they once again have another tough schedule, but I think the senior has enough experience this season to navigate it just fine.
2 Singles: Andres Carro (UTR 11.32) – I’m putting Carro at the #2 position because of his pretty solid showing at ITAs and tough 3 set match against Emory’s James Spaulding (projected #5). The former 3 star recruit from Germantown has had a very good career so far for the Tigers and I believe that he’s going to take another step in the right direction this season. Last season he was average at #2, but I think with another year of experience under his belt, he should see some more success.
3 Singles: Jordan Brewer (UTR 11.40) – Mr. Brewer was very good last season at #4 with an 11-3 record, so I think he is ready to take the next step up the #3. Experience is invaluable at the college level, which is why you will always hear us talk about _______ SENIOR, in The Blog. The junior has yet another year of matches under his belt, which typically leads to more success.
4 Singles: Brandon Kali (UTR 11.26) – We finally have a freshman in the lineup! Kali impressed this fall and will most definitely be in the starting lineup. After his run to the third round and 7-5, 7-5 loss to Emory’s Adrien Bouchet (projected #3), I think he should fall into the #4 or #5 spot. Regardless, I think he should beat most opponents that are worse than him, but will struggle some against the NINE nationally ranked teams on Sewanee’s schedule.
5 Singles: Ryan Olps (UTR 11.06) – Olps could very well be in the lineup at #4, but because he didn’t play this fall, that leads me to believe he might have been injured or studying abroad, which typically leads to playing lower in the lineup come spring. He struggled last year at #3 and #4 singles, but should win significantly more if playing the #5 spot.
6 Singles: Jack Metzger (UTR 10.97) – The sophomore rounds out the Tiger’s starting lineup. He went 7-2 last season at #5 singles and will have success in the #6 spot. There’s not a lot more to say about that. He’s not quite ready for a top 4 slot, but could definitely do some damage down low.
In the Hunt: Aubrey Davis (UTR 10.64) and Alejandro Becker (UTR 10.64) – Both are solid players and would have success at lower spots in case of injury or rest replacements, but I don’t see either being staples in the lineup.
Schedule Analysis:
Once again, I. *clap* Love. *clap* This. *clap* Schedule. There’s great opportunity combined with some risk and a key tune up match before the conference tournament and most likely the big dance. You can find it here.
They start the season with a couple of tune up matches in Kentucky against some D3 teams that aren’t super significant and an NAIA and D2 school. Then they travel to Fredericksburg and the fun begins. They play back to back to back ranked teams in #37 Stevens, #14 Kenyon and #27 Mary Washington. We will most likely do a great big collaborative preview for this weekend since we have FOUR DIFFERENT writers who cover these four teams. Can’t flippin’ wait for that.
Next up is a little bit off a break against Wittenburg and conference opponent Centre before flying out to sunny California! They are playing in the Stag Hen and take on #8 Gustavus in the first round. *UPSET ALERT* Definitely looking forward to previewing that tournament. They finish the California trip with #22 Tufts, #27 Denison and NAIA Hope International. They return home and host #25 Kalamazoo and #38 Carleton which should also be another great weekend of tennis as KZoo is a dangerous team this year.
After that brutal stretch of matches, they get into the full swing of conference season, where they should have too too much trouble. Before the SAA tournament, the Tigers end the regular season with matches against #4 Emory, which they could very well see again in the NCAA tournament, and regional foe Washington and Lee. Afterwards is the conference tournament, which they should win and then most likely a trip back down to Atlanta for NCAAs.
Keys to Success:
Depth – Sewanee has awesome depth and there’s no question about that. They had a 79% winning percentage last season at the #3-6 spots. That’s pretty darn good. In order to build off of their success from last season, they will need to continue to flex this depth and they have the pieces to do so.
Development – Development is always key to a team’s success and Sewanee has had a proven track record of doing so. Jack Gray went from getting absolutely throttled at #3 singles his freshman year to qualifying for NCAAs his junior year. Whether it’s running up the mountains of Tennessee or just the close knit team culture, the Tigers seem to find a way to develop players year after year. If these returning players have continued to develop, this team will be poised to see great success.
Experience – Senior, Junior, Junior, Freshman, Sophomore, Sophomore. That’s the projected starting lineup for the Tigers. There is plenty of great experience throughout the lineup and enough youthful inexperience to make them a very dangerous team. This is a match tested team and has upset potential in many of their matches against nationally ranked teams because of this. I would watch out, especially if I was Mary Washington….
Realistic Best Case Scenario: Best case scenario for the Tigers is that they hold serve against all teams ranked below them and pull off the upsets against Mary Washington, Kenyon, Gustavus, Tufts and push Emory and whoever they play in the second and third rounds of the Stag Hen. They win the SAA and go to NCAAs as a 2 seed.
Realistic Worst Case Scenario: Worst case is a slight drop off for the Tigers and fall into the #30-#35 range with a bad loss somewhere in the schedule and no wins against teams ranked higher than them. They will still win SAAs, but have a tougher time doing so and end up as a #3 seed in Emory’s region.
Prediction: I’m gonna lean more towards drinking the purple kool-aid… I’ll probably get burned, but oh well! I think they pull off the upset of Mary Washington and Gustavus and earn their way to a #2 seed in Emory’s region before bowing out in the regional final at NCAAs.
Am I right? Am I wrong? Time will tell, but I like the Tigers and always have and I think this season they continue to move in the right direction. What are your thoughts? Leave a comment, shoot me an email or @ me on Twitter. And with that my season previews are done! But I will do a brief snippet of the teams that I didn’t preview in the next week or so, so be on the lookout for that! Until next time, RegASouth out!
The first photo is actually Sewanee legend Scott Gallimore aka state school scott aka Fernando Gonzales de las palmas!! the captions reads brewer and carro but neither player in the photo is brewer or carro.