When it rains, it pours. And that’s the writing style that I will always adhere to. With my season preview of the Johns Hopkins Jays coming out yesterday, I guess you could say that the blood is flowing and it’s time to get things done. Don’t you love when Christmas runs in the middle of the week? Shoutout to my real job for giving me a 5 day weekend, and for another 4 day weekend coming up next week. Maybe I’ll get all of my season previews done in the next two weeks and D3NE doesn’t bother me about the damn calendar again until February. He’ll probably find some other way to bother me though. And somehow he still has more followers than me. I don’t even know how that’s possible. Let’s go to a quick conversation I had with AVZ the other day:
AS: “He thinks he’s gonna have a party and not invite me? Who does he think he is?”
AVZ: “You’re right, AS.”
AS: “I like invented him, you know what I mean?”
Shout-out to anyone that gets that reference, because we can still be friends. Now that I’ve fulfilled my quota of beginning every article with things that are vaguely about the blog and tennis but not really, we can continue on with the actual meat and potatoes of the article.
Overview
Here are the Eagles rankings the past 4 years:
2018: #21
2017: #29
2016: #27
2015: #16
Yes, that’s correct. Just 4 years ago, this Mary Washington team was threatening to be in the top 15. UMW’s end of season performance normally depends on how strong the rest of DIII is around them. I feel like the team UTR of UMW almost always ends up in the 65-69 range. If enough teams have down years or suspensions or injuries, UMW benefits. If not, UMW falls. I’ve gotten on the Eagles in past years, but they are consistent, they almost always compete like professionals with respect, and they make do with what they have. There’s something to be said about being able to do the same thing year after year, and Mary Washington does just that. This is a team that will usually have about a 5% chance to upset most teams in the top 12, and maybe a little bit higher if we expand that to the top 15. This is fine, but the problem is that Mary Washington normally does not have the goods to fend off all the upsets seekers that come their way. I’m not sure exactly what will happen this year and this season preview will give us some more clarity on what to expect.
Coach: Todd Helbing, 20th Year (congrats Coach!)
Location: Fredericksburg, Virginia
ITA Ranking: N/A, finished 2018 at #21
Blog Power Ranking: #21
Twitter: @UMWMensTennis, a solid account that will usually provide updates
Hashtag: #GetDirtyGoWash, one of the best hashtags I’ve seen in the past few years
Key Additions
Priyan Desilva (2 Star, #339)
Key Losses
Eric Hurwitz (bottom of the lineup player)
Lineup Analysis
#1 Singles, Matt Miles, Senior, UTR 11.82
Matt Miles is far and away the best player on the Eagles squad. He reached the quarterfinals of the ASouth ITA this past fall, falling to the eventual champion Chaz Downing of CMU in a close two set match. Despite being the best player on the Eagles, the knock on Miles is that he has trouble elevating his game to beat the best players on top 15-20 teams. He finished last year with losses to Zalenski (x2), Levine, Joshi, Kronenberg, Anderson, Lipscomb, and Jack Gray. Not like any of those players are bad, but the fact that he went 0fer against every one of those guys is concerning. Miles is hard to upset (amazing how this happens right), but if the Eagles are going to break into the 15-20 range they need M&M to step up.
#2 Singles, Patrick Hughes, Junior, UTR 11.21
After Miles, it becomes a big pit of similar players for the Eagles. This bodes well for their depth, which has always been a strength. This does not bode well, however, for the top of their lineup. Hughes was very average last year at #2 singles, similar to how Miles performed at the top spot. Again, not many big wins, a couple of upset losses (Salisbury comes to mind), and all of this tells me that Hughes needs a big step forward if he’s going to be a key contributor for the Eagles.
#3 Singles, Ryland Byrd, Senior, UTR 11.25
Byrd, a senior, played mostly #5 singles last year with great success. As I mentioned earlier, since most of these lineup positions are interchangable for Mary Wash, you could see Byrd as low as #5 or as high as #2. I think Byrd slots in here at #3, with Helbing leaning on his experience and the hope that it being his last year motivates him into a good one. He’s used to winning lower in the lineup, so we’ll see how he reacts when he inevitably starts to lose at the #3 spot if he plays there. Sticking with it is key here. Byrd can bring a winning attitude to this spot, but will his talent be enough?
#4 Singles, Michael Fleming, Junior, UTR 11.02
Fleming has always been a guy that I’ve kept my eye on for the Eagles. One thing I will say is that he hasn’t really been as good as I thought he would be. But, he’s held his own at least in the middle of the lineup. In classic Mary Wash fashion, he had only 1 win last year against a player with a UTR higher than his. He’s going to have another average year at #4, assuming he stays in this spot.
#5 Singles, Cole Tecce, Sophomore, UTR 11.01
Last year’s biggest addition to the Eagles team comes back next year with a more concrete place in the lineup. He shuttled in and out of the #6 spot last year and came up with a few huge wins for this team. He won three setters to clinch against the Unversity of the South and Bates College last year. I love the toughness from a guy just coming in and Tecce should improve on that this year. I see that he’s played a ton of tournaments over the summer. I’m expecting Tecce to have a great year at #5 singles. This is a guy that seems to have that “it” factor. Watch out for Tecce.
#6 Singles, Joseph Brown/Moses Hutchinson/Derek Hagino
UMW will probably shuttle players in and out of this #6 singles spot. My gut says that Joseph Brown will get the most playing time here. Brown played at #3 singles last year, which was pretty crazy. He did notch some pretty solid wins, so it’s possible that Brown plays above his UTR and can hang with the big boys. If I were Coach Helbing, I’d give Brown the shot to wreak havoc at the bottom of the lineup and get some consistent wins instead of going for shots in the dark at #3. Mary Washington looks to be strong only at a couple of spots this year (as usual), and Brown will be a key if they are to pull off the 5-4 wins they pulled off last year.
Doubles
Doubles could potentially be an issue for UMW. They did not have a good showing at the ASouth ITA and Matt Miles, their best player, has never been known for his prowess on the doubles court. The Eagles best shot at having a bonafide team could be something like Fleming/Brown tandem, but even they were not world-beaters at lower spots a year ago. UMW will not sweep many teams – they don’t have the doubles talent for it. This is looking like another year where they will have to grind out wins by scrapping it together every match. It will be a true team effort.
Schedule Analysis
http://umweagles.com/sports/mten/2018-19/schedule
I cannot stand the analysis that I have to do on the Mary Washington schedule every year, but I will say that the Eagles have a good shot at a lot of teams this year so I can’t really complain. They will be playing their normal PP/Redlands/CMS/Whittier quad on Spring Break, and they have gone winless against Redlands and PP the past 7 or 8 years they’ve been out there. It’s nuts. This year is UMW’s biggest chance to break that streak with Redlands losing a ton of players and a transfer, but who knows what will happen out in the desert. That match represents UMW’s biggest chance at getting “upset” and dropping their ranking big time in the middle of the year. The Eagles do have a lot of options to move up, however, and that is why I am liking their schedule this year. With matches against NCW, Kenyon, Swarthmore, Hopkins, CMU, CMS, Bates, and Sewanee, the Eagles have a good mix of matches throughout the rankings and they will certainly learn who they are when the year is over. At the end of the day, the Eagles will most likely make the NCAA Tournament no matter what by winning the CAC over Christopher Newport. They’ll have to avoid an upset by W&L or a similar team at NCAAs to ensure their season is a success.
D3ASouth’s 3 Keys to Success
- Mixing & Matching – Coach Helbing will have to be smart with his matchups this year. UMW is playing a ton of different teams with of course, different styles of play. What Helbing can do is really maximize his talent by knowing who matches up best against the opponent. His #3-8 players all have the ability to play at any of those positions. Their UTRs are so close that you could probably argue that any of them can go anywhere. So, much like past years, getting his clutch players into matches and putting his players in the right position to win will be so key. Every match will need a strategy and a scouting report. He’s been doing this for 20 years, so it’s probably best to trust him.
- Braving the Desert – There should be a couple matches that UMW circles on their schedule, but one of the main ones that the Eagles should circle is their match at Redlands over Spring Break. UMW has lost their fair share of heartbreakers in the desert, and a win over the now weakened Bulldogs will get a giant monkey off the Eagles back, even if they are the higher ranked team these days. If they can #GetDirtyGoWash and leave Spring Break with a record of 2-2, this bodes well for the rest of the season.
- Final Year – With two seniors playing big roles in the lineup, Mary Wash will lean heavily on their experience to gut out key matches. As I mentioned earlier, this is not a team that is going to be winning many 7-2 or better matches against ranked teams. It will be a full team effort. That’s when you rely on your seniors. Matt Miles, Ryland Byrd, and Derek Hagino (when playing) will be looked to be the keys to success in many matches this year. I’m not sure how much we can count on consistent spots for the Eagles and this means that they will have to be in an all-out brawl for every match.
Conclusion
I won’t spare too much time on a conclusion, but I am expecting another season that places Mary Washington right where they are by the end of the year. I don’t see this team upsetting the likes of NC Wesleyan or Hopkins, but I also see them taking care of business against the Redlands and Bates of the world. This is a decently well-coached team that gets the job done when they need to. If vanilla is your favorite flavor ice cream, head down to Fredericksburg because they are serving it up by the gallon there. I’m rooting for an individual NCAA berth for Matt Miles and even an upset in the tournament, but that may be too much to ask. This hard-working team will be an interesting follow this year. Expect a lot of 5-4 matches. And honestly, who doesn’t love that drama. ASouth, OUT.
Always educational!