The Blog has finally been back on its game of late, posting previews like it was our job, which it is not, boys and girls. Check out our recent in-depth looks at Redlands, Southwestern and even the entire freakin Liberty League. Now it’s my turn to offer you yet another true contender from the Northeast. Bowdoin has been the most consistent team over the past three years, winning the program’s first title in 2016, falling in the national semifinals in 2017, and ending 2018 as the National Runner-Up (hence their recent #2 ranking from the ITA). Now they have to try and do something they’ve never done, advance past the NCAA Quarterfinals without Luke Tercek, Kyle Wolfe and Gil Roddy. While Luke Trinka and Chase Savage started it all, and were instrumental in Bowdoin’s rise both on and off the court, the Polar Bears just graduated their most important recruiting class in program history. Now, this year’s team still has Grant Urken and Jerry Jiang, so it’s not like Bowdoin should be left for dead, but for the first time in recent memory they will have to start a bunch of new faces. How the Polar Bears respond this year will be a testament to both the leadership of senior co-captains Urken and Jiang, and Coach Conor Smith, who has quickly risen to the top of the DIII coaching ranks. Coach Smith’s won a title, what’s up Sean McVay?
LOCATION: Brunswick, Maine
COACH: Conor Smith (9th year…time flies)
ASSISTANT COACH: None
TWITTER HANDLE: @PolarBearTenis, one of the most reliable for CONSTANT in-match updates in the whole country, albeit lacking any sort of “fun”.
ITA NATIONAL RANKING: 2, in a shocking twist the ITA released “new” rankings earlier today. In a less shocking twist, they involve a team no longer in DIII…
ITA REGIONAL RANKING: 2. This is the best region in the country for a reason.
BLOG POWER RANKING: 5th
STOCK WATCH: the arrow is pointing downwards, but perhaps not as much as some would have you believe…
2017-2018 FINISH: After getting stomped by Midd in the regular season (the Polar Bears only loss), they rebounded and won NESCACs by knocking off Wesleyan and then exacting revenge on the Panthers. Bowdoin ROLLED through NCAAs blowing by Wash U and Chicago without losing a single match in the NCAA QF and SF. The storybook ending was not to be, as Midd won the much-awaited rubber match 5-3 and Bowdoin was left as the National Runner-Up.
TWEET-LENGTH REVIEW OF FALL: Jiang is an absolute warrior. Urken, when healthy, is probably the best player in the country, the young guns look talented, albeit raw. They are reloading, but sleep on Bowdoin at your own peril.
KEY ADDITIONS: Oscar Yang (Canada), Evan Fortier (4-star from California).
KEY DEPARTURES: Luke Tercek (#2 singles/#1 doubles), Kyle Wolfe (#3 singles/#2 doubles), Gil Roddy (#5 singles/#3 doubles)
BEST CASE SCENARIO: Urken and Jiang are the best 1-2 punch in the country, Oscar Yang is the real deal and wins a lot in the middle of the lineup along with Justin Wang. Patel is one of the best #5’s in the country, which is not too much of a stretch as he was one of the best #6’s last year, and the Polar Bears find somebody who can be relied upon at #6. The Polar Bears earn a top-2 seed at NESCACs, and a top-3 seed at NCAAs, and set up a rubber-match title showdown with Middlebury.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: There is no replacing a class like Tercek, Wolfe and Roddy, but that becomes even more painfully obvious. The freshmen are a roller coaster, and nobody can pick up consistent wins at the bottom of both the singles and doubles lineups. Bowdoin loses convincingly to Midd and Amherst, and even drops a couple close matches against either Wesleyan and/or Williams. They stumble their way into NESCACs and lose in the QF, failing to make NCAAs, let alone the NCAA semifinals for the first time in Urken and Jiang’s vaunted careers.
BOLD PREDICTION: Even after losing its best recruiting class in program history, Bowdoin has another great year and makes the Final-Four for the fourth consecutive spring. There is no team without flaws this season, which means we’re in for one hell of a spring. When we enter a season without a clear frontrunner, I tend to favor senior-led teams with NCAA experience and good coaching. Bowdoin fits that bill as much as any other team out there, even with a few new faces who will be in the starting lineup, so I’m going to continue betting on them until they prove me wrong.
NOT-SO-BOLD PREDICTION: Grant Urken serves his way through the regular season and ends up a top-3 seed at NCAAs. Duh, my dude has the biggest serve and arguably biggest forehand in the country. He won NCAAs last spring and should be considered the favorite to win it all this year along with Cuba and Parodi. More on Grant momentarily…
- Grant Urken, senior, UTR = 12.74, range: #1-2. This is health dependent, but the rumor was that Urken was kept out of most of the fall so that he was definitely be ready for the spring. Urk has had a few injury issues in the past, so hopefully he can stay healthy this year, and if so he should be one of the top players in the country. His only results this fall came from the ITA Hall of Fame matches on grass, so take those with a grain of salt. He also brings it on the doubles court, and Bowdoin will need him to be constant source of two points.
- Jerry Jiang, senior, UTR = 12.51, range: #1-2. Jerry Jiang is the man. I will be honest, I had my doubts about JJ at #2 given that he’s played #4 for his whole career and at times has been the weakest point of Bowdoin’s lineup, but he balled out this fall, making the finals of the ITA, including wins over Wernink, Cauneac, Ma, and Kam, all of whom should play #1/#2 for Bates, MIT, Amherst, and Williams. He pushed Sorkin to a 3rd set in the finals, and…oh yeah…also WON THE DOUBLES DRAW. Jerry has always been a great doubles player, but playing with Kyle Wolfe had its perks. Now with an inexperienced albeit talented player in Wang, the rhyming duo look to take the middle of the NESCAC by storm. That is, unless he gets paired with Urken at #1.
- Oscar Yang, freshman, UTR =12.07, range: #3-5. This is where things get murky. For the first time in a long time, Bowdoin has no obviously choice for the middle of the lineup. While Yang is my best bet, it wouldn’t be shocking to see either Wang or Patel in this spot. Yang was the Polar Bear’s top recruit this year, and had a very solid fall. He mad the 3rd round at ITAs before falling to Wei (projected Amherst #1) in straight sets, but didn’t beat anybody who will be playing this high in their lineups. He then played A-Flight at Bates and had good wins over Wernink and Biswas (likely #2’s for Bates and Tufts) before losing to Ma (projected Amherst #2), and then lost to Sean Ko (projected MIT #3-4) in the first round at Tufts/Brandeis, but did get nice backdraw wins over Lil Barr (projected Williams #1) and Lillenthal (Wes freshman). If Yang can hang with the rest of the NESCAC gang at #3, Bowdoin will be that much tougher.
- Justin Wang, sophomore, UTR =??? , range: #3-6. Maybe I was just being an idiot, but I couldn’t find Wang’s UTR. He is a sophomore who played sparingly last season which means that like Yang he as virtually no match experience. He won a round at the ITA before getting rolled by Farrell (projected Midd #2), also played A-Flight at Bates notching wins over Williamson (projected Skid #2), and Niemiec (projected Tufts #3-4), and then missed the Tufts/Brandeis tournament. Don’t worry, he had a good excuse, he was at Small College Nationals with Jerry Jiang after the pair won the New England ITA. Look for Wang to be a big contributor in both lineups this year. More so than Yang, who I think is a slightly more known commodity, Wang could decide the fate of the Polar Bears’ season.
- Justin Patel, junior, UTR =11.75, range: #3-5. Patel is the only known quantity at the bottom of the lineup, and that’s part of the reason I have him down at #5 instead of up at #3. Don’t get me wrong, he could absolutely start or end the year playing above Yang and Wang, but if I were Coach Smith I would let my younger guys try to play up to the competition and rely on Patel here to become his own version of Gil Roddy. JP lost to Grant (projected Tufts #3-4) at the ITA, but then exacted his revenge when he beat Grant in the 1st round of the B-Flight at Bates. Justin’s best singles performance of the fall came at Tufts/Brandeis where he beat Tyler Barr (projected MIT #1-2) 12-10 in a superbreaker and followed that up with a big win over Bessette (projected Amherst #3). A good end to the fall means Patel could start the year a bit higher than #5, but this is where I think he will end up if Bowdoin succeeds in 2019.
- Larry Zhao, sophomore, UTR =11.32, range: #4-7. Larry has more match experience than either Yang or Wang, but the same amount of singles experience. Zhao was moved up in the doubles lineup during last season, and ended the year playing #3 with Roddy. The duo did well, and scored BIG wins over Kroot/Wu and Chua/Liu in the NCAA QF and SF against Wash U and Chicago. This fall, Zhao lost to Quijano (projected Bates #1-3) at the ITA, played B-Flight at Bates and lost in the 2nd round, was demoted to the B-Flight at Tufts/Brandeis but responded about as well as you can by winning the entire flight. That run included wins over Levitin (projected Amherst #6-7), Ruparel (projected Amherst #6-7), and Chung (projected Williams #6-7), all of which were good and somewhat necessary wins to show Zhao can not only play #6, but win. He is more of a lock to be in the doubles lineup this spring, but I think the sophomore will contribute in both facets.
IN THE HUNT: Alan Delman, sophomore, UTR =11.35, Luke Carstens, senior, UTR =10.87, Eliot Rozovsky, junior, UTR =11.02. All three of these guys could end up playing in the singles lineup this year. Rozovsky and Carstens have a little bit of match experience, and Carstens has been full immersed in the winning culture for 3+ years now. Eliot played at the ITA, although he didnt win a round. Delman played below all the guys listed in my projected starting lineup at Bates, but did win the C-Flight draw, beating some talented freshmen along the way. Both Delman and Carstens played A-Flight at Tufts/Brandeis, but that was Bowdoin without Urken/Jiang/Wang, and playing 4 guys in the A-Flight. However, they both were slotted above Zhao. If Wang/Zhao do not produce to start the year, it’s reasonable to expect any one of these guys could be the next man up.
Bowdoin starts their spring with their annual two-week trip out to Cali where they will play 10 matches in 12 days. Let’s hope the Polar Bears are working on their fitness this winter. They start with Chapman and Skidmore, which should tune up the younger Polar Bears for the Stag Hen, where Bowdoin gets Southwestern in the 1st round. Anything less than a Bowdoin/CMS Stag Hen final would be disappointing for the Polar Bears, and Bowdoin will look to win the tournament just like last year. Then the Maine men play four matches in two days against Babson/Whitman and Trinity CT/Redlands. Bowdoin’s B-Squad can handle Babson and Trinity, and while Whitman and Redlands lost a lot of starters, neither should be taken lightly.
A return to the Northeast brings a big match at Wesleyan at the end of March, followed by intriguing matches against Brandeis, at Amherst, vs Midd, at Bates, and finally at Williams to close the regular season. You might be wondering why I included Bates amongst those matches, but the Bobcats have given Bowdoin all sorts of trouble over the past few years and if that match is indoors you never know. We should get a sense of Bowdoin at the Stag Hen, but their match at Wes will be a MASSIVE barometer as to how good this Bowdoin team is. Even if they lose to CMS out west, if they can make a statement against the Cards then circle the calendar for their matches at Amherst, vs Midd, and at Williams, which should be great.
All in all, another NE team with a good schedule. Lots of matches early out west to get the younger guys some good experience and get the battle ready, then the brutal April of a NESCAC schedule. Hopefully we get the bottom of the lineup sorted out in California, because dealing with a rotating door during conference play would leave Bowdoin more vulnerable than they’ve been since Shut Up and Dance was atop the billboard. GO U BEARS