2018 Season Preview: #4 Bowdoin Polar Bears

Happy Thursday, boys and girls, and welcome to your Bowdoin season preview. It was just 20 glorious months ago when the Polar Bears pulled off one of the most remarkable NCAA tournament upset runs in recent years. We all know the story by now. Down 3-0 and 4-2 to Hopkins in the quarters, Jerry Jiang won 7-6 in the 3rd set to clinch the match. Down 2-1 to the overall No. 1 seeded (and previously undefeated) Emory Eagles, Bowdoin stormed back winning that match 5-4 as well. Totally exhausted, and facing a team they had already lost to twice that same season (including a 5-1 drubbing at NESCACs), Bowdoin came out firing and beat Midd 5-0 to earn the program’s first team championship. It was truly extraordinary, and one of the best stories we’ve had in DIII tennis in recent years. The champs graduated Trinka and Savage, and some bloggers predicted the usual title hangover season to follow. Bowdoin bucked the trend and made the final four, becoming the first team to do so in seven years (Guru stat check pending).

Can the upperclassmen recapture the glory of their younger days?

This year, the Brunswick Boys hope to do more than just make a 3rd straight final four and relive their glory days. The Polar Bears didn’t lose ANYBODY from their semifinal team last year, and have added a couple nice pieces to an already talented lineup. If Bowdoin makes another run, it won’t be because Coach Smith have some leftover fairy dust sitting in the Farley shed. It’s not a magic formula. In 2016 the Polar Bears won with depth and amazing team chemistry, led by two seniors who were truly the heart of the team. Don’t look now but Bowdoin is senior heavy again this year, with tri-captains Tercek, Wolfe and Roddy leading the way. Abracadabra, homes.

Location: Brunswick, Maine

Conference: NESCAC

Coach: Conor Smith (7th season)

Assistant Coach: NONE

ITA National Ranking (as of end of 2017 season): #4

ITA Regional Ranking (as of end of 2017 season): #2

Blog Power Ranking (as of 10/08/17): #7 (which is almost criminally low)

Twitter Handle: @PolarBearTennis. Extremely reliable for in-match updates. Not much witty banter.

Key Losses: NONE!!!

Key Additions: In alphabetical order, Alan Delman (3-star from New York–UTR=10.94), Justin Wang (3-star from New Jersey–UTR=11.39), Tristan Young (3-star from Massachusetts–UTR=10.90), & Larry Zhao (Canadien so no TRN stars–UTR=11.97)

Realistic Best Case Scenario: YOU ALREADY KNOW

Realistic Worst Case Scenario: The Polar Bears start slow with an early loss to either CMU or Redlands. Then Bowdoin loses tight regular season matches to Williams and Wesleyan, finishes 4th in the NESCAC, and gets blown out by Midd in the conference semis. Due to the early loss and bad Pool-C implications, Bowdoin is left out of NCAAs (this is really unlikely, but it is a realistic worst case scenario) The once vaunted sophomores have to watch NCAAs on their computers as they spend Ivies remembering the good old days.

POSITIVE BOLD PREDICTION: Forget everything I just said in that worst case scenario. Bowdoin makes its third consecutive trip to the final-four!

NEGATIVE BOLD PREDICTION: No Bowdoin singles players make NCAAs. This would be most likely if there is some mid-season change/rotation at the top spot. Tercek and Urken are both more than capable of making NCAAs, let alone making a deep run, however the region is really good. It’s always really good, but especially this year when you could very easily have seven guys qualifying from three schools. Bowdoin doesn’t need their top guys to be other-worldly, they just need them to win when it matters most. 

POSITIVE NOT-SO BOLD PREDICTION: The doubles team of Terk and Urk will be one of the country’s best. Given that they are already #2 in the country, and they finished last year as a top-15 team in the country, this is a no-brainer. Two giants with big serves and steady volleys. Book their trip to NCAAs now.

NEGATIVE NOT-SO BOLD PREDICTION: Bowdoin will lose to Middlebury during the regular season. Let’s look back at the past few years. In 2015 when the senior class were freshmen, they lost badly to Midd during the regular season and played a tight 5-3 match at NESCACs. In 2016, the Polar Bears lost to Midd in the regular season, got whooped 5-1 at NESCACs (that included a doubles sweep), and then turned the brooms back on the Panthers and won the National Title match 5-0. In 2017, the Panthers beat Bowdoin 6-3 during the regular season, but the Polar Bears again bounced back to beat Midd in the postseason this time in the finals of NESCACs. Bowdoin may well be Middlebury’s post-season kryptonite, but that certainly doesnt apply to the April 14th match in Vermont.

Lineup Prediction

What a gentle giant

#1: Luke Tercek, senior, UTR=12.08, range: #1-3. BLT is one of the triumvirate of Polar Bear seniors with national championship experience and he has a doubles game to match his size. While he struggled somewhat at #1 last year, he still earned wins over Hewlin, Big Barr, Bessette and Lipscomb. This fall Tercek held his seed and made the quarters of the ITA, where he was dropped like a bad habit by Cuba. However, Luke had a terrific doubles fall. Pairing once again with Grant Urken to form the mighty Terk and Urk, the hulking duo won the ITA and then made the finals of the ITA Oracle Cup (Small College Nationals) before falling 6-4 in the 3rd. A part of the #2 doubles team in the nation, not too shabby!  We saw Luke take a big jump between his freshman and sophomore years, when he went from one of the best #5’s in the country to a solid #1. He remains that to this day, but for Bowdoin to full immerse themselves in the top tier of title contenders they will need a few more points from the top of their lineup this spring.

#2: Grant Urken, junior, UTR=12.59, range: #1-3. As I said above, Luke and Grant had a tremendous doubles fall. On the singles side, we didn’t get to see very much. Urk cruised past Quijano (projected Bates #2-3) in the 1st round of the ITA, but then was forced to retire down 1-4 in the 1st set to Boris Sorkin (Tufts freshman/projected #3-5). That was all we got, a fleeting glimpse of the Urk. He didn’t play at MIT due to the Oracle Cup, and only played dubs at the Wallach (Bates Tournament). Last spring, Grant made the impressive jump from #6 (granted the best #6 in the country) to a damn good #2, qualifying for Individual NCAAs and making the quarterfinals before losing 7-5 in the 3rd to Metzler (KZoo #1 and defending national runner-up). If Urken continues to improve, he could well end up playing #1 for the Polar Bears this spring. In fact, my guess is that he gets that chance at some point in 2018.

#3: Kyle Wolfe, senior, UTR=12.01, range: #2-4. The grindmaster himself, Wolfe is the second of the three Bowdoin seniors and captains in 2018. After being a phenomenal #3 during his first two campaigns, he took a few more L’s his junior year but still went 13-7 with wins over Morkovine, Zykov, and Dulle. However, he went just 3-6 against ranked NESCAC teams. 1st round losses at the NE ITA and MIT Tournament to TVG (projected Midd #5) and Chung (projected Williams #6) respectively don’t inspire all of the confidence, but Kyle bounced back nicely (as Kyle is wont to do) with BIG wins over Rosen (projected Bates #1) and Gupte (projected Tufts #1) at the Bates Tournament before falling in the A-Flight finals. I expect nothing less than another great year in the middle of the Polar Bears lineups (he has also been phenomenal at #2 doubles over the past few years). Out of all the Polar Bears, and perhaps the entire region, Kyle is the guy I want on court grinding away in the deciding match when my team needs it most.

HE’S BAAAAACK

#4: Jerry Jiang, junior, UTR=11.73, range:#3-5. JERRY! JERRY!! JERRY!!! The beloved junior didn’t play this fall (I assume he was abroad), and will be vital to the team’s chances of a Final Four three-peat this spring. As a freshman, Jerry went 15-4 at #4 and was a big part of the trio known as the Depthly Hallows (along with Roddy at 5 and Urken at 6. The three amassed a combined record of 53-7, which is just bonkers. EDIT: AVZ has ruined my fun by correctly pointing out that CMS’ depth was even better last year.) Last year, Jiang was just 9-7, although he did have wins over Schlagner (projected Midd #4), Indrakanti (projected Williams #4-5), JT Wynne (projected Skid #1), and Shaw Speer (projected Blog Fan #2). Jiang is probably the biggest wild card out there for the Polar Bears, because we don’t know how long it will take him to shake off the rust. Bowdoin at it’s best has Jiang hitting a big ball in the middle of its lineup, so let’s hope that’s the case.

#5: Gil Roddy, senior, UTR=12.53, range: #3-5. Forget Dwayne Johnson, Gil Roddy should be known as The Rock. In dual matches, my dude was 18-3 as a freshman (mainly playing #6), 18-3 as a sophomore (mainly playing #5), and 17-2 as a junior (mainly playing #5). How much more solid can you get? This fall was a little more up and down (4-2), but those were not dual matches, and thus simply do not carry the same importance. What I’m most concerned about is that Roddy did not play singles at the ITA. I hope it was just a minor injury, but we saw Patel and Zhao playing “above” him there. Gil played doubles exclusively with freshman Justin Wang this fall, and if he plays with Wang in the spring it will be his fourth partner in four years. However, he has always brought home solid doubles results, whether it was with Wolstencroft, Savage, Patel or now Wang. My best guess (although there’s a reason I don’t do doubles projections in my season previews) is that he and Wang play #3 behind Terk/Urk and Wolfe/Jiang.

Say cheese, JP

#6a: Justin Patel, sophomore, UTR=11.68, range: #6-7. Patel was the Polar Bears’ starting #6 last year as a freshman, and was legitimately awesome. He was 7-0 in regular season dual matches, and then got important wins over both Bates and Midd at NESCACs. He did take losses to both Wash U (Kroot) and Emory (Rubinstein) at NCAAs, but overall JP had a great freshman spring. This fall he got an ITA win, and played two tight sets with Cuba (projected Midd #1) in the 2nd round. A tough draw at MIT meant a loss to Farrell (projected Midd #2-4) in the 1st round, but a solid consi win over Cheng (projected MIT #3-5) and a ridiculous match with Fung (projected Amherst #1-6…yes that’s a real projection), that ended 7-6, 5-7, 16-14 for the Mammoth. Given how well Patel played at #6 last year, I would think he has the edge to start the season. However, Patel played C-Flight at Bates this fall while my #6b played B-Flight…

#6b: Larry Zhao, freshman, UTR=11.97, range: #5-7. Zhao had a very encouraging fall. While he lost in the 1st round of the ITA, it was 6-3 in the 3rd set to All-American Billy de Quant (projected Midd #2-3). He had another tough draw the MIT invite where he fell in two close sets to Sean Wei (projected Amherst #1-3). He lost in a super to Ben Biswas (projected Tufts #4-7) in the consolation but exacted his revenge a few weeks later at Bates beating Biswas in another super. At that same tournament he routined Glover (projected Bates #4-7) before falling to Sorkin (projected Tufts #3-5) in the semis. A number of people reached out to me this fall about how good they think Zhao could be. If he can contribute to the lineup this year, it would make Bowdoin a better team. Hopefully he and Patel can push each other to be better and the Polar Bears can have a strong #6 no matter who starts.

Also in the mix: Luke Carstens (junior–UTR=11.53) & Justin Wang (freshman–UTR=11.39). Carsten played #6 for most of last spring and did pretty well (though not quite as well as Patel). He did have GREAT wins over PP, Redlands, Amherst and Wesleyan, but also fell to Skidmore, Whitman, Brandeis and Bates. Carstens certainly has the potential, but this fall he barely played at all. I don’t know if that was injury related, or if Coach Smith wanted to get his younger guys more playing time, but it either way it makes me believe that Carstens is on the outside looking in right now. That being said, he’s proven he can not only hang with but beat the big boys, so if the bottom of the lineup is struggling, Luke #2 will almost certainly get a shot. Wang was called up to the big leagues in his very collegiate start, getting an ITA singles spot. Justin lost to Libnic (projected Babson #2-3) in two close sets. He won a match at MIT, and lost a somewhat encouraging 4&4 match to Taylor (projected Williams #4-6). Continuing to improve on his results, he won two matches at Bates before losing to fellow freshman Kevin Ma in the semis of the C-Flight draw. I think you are more likely to see Wang in the doubles this year, as he played with Gil Roddy throughout the entire fall. While Wang might have a slight edge, it will probably be some combo of Wang/Zhao/Patel with Roddy at that final doubles spot. 

Schedule Analysis

We might see a rematch of last year’s NCAA Quarter: The Battle of the Bears

The Polar Bears start their season off with a tune-up match vs Trinity CT in Cali. While a tune-up match is a GREAT idea for a team that won’t have played outdoors much in 5 months, it’s a little close (24 hours) to the Stag Hen for my liking. That being said, the benefits well out-weigh the consequences. Bowdoin starts the Stag-Hen with Case Western in a match that will test the Polar Bears but hopefully not all that much (just the right amount really). Then they likely get the winner of the PP/Wash U match in the semis, which will be LARGE for Pool-C. Bowdoin will be favored against either team, even if D3AS has WashU ahead of the Polar Bears in his power rankings. If they win that, their reward is a Tuesday Stag-Hen final (likely against the Wesleyan/CMS winner), and then another MASSIVE pool-C match comes against CMU on Wednesday. It’s a grind to start the year. At least they are given the day off Thursday before playing two top-25 teams in Skidmore and Whitman ON THE SAME DAY on Friday.

Thankfully Bowdoin slams the breaks and doesn’t play another match until Wednesday of the following week when the Polar Bears travel to the desert to take on Redlands. The very next day will be another match with GIANT implications when Bowdoin plays Chicago at CMS. Given Bowdoin’s ranking, anything other than one loss through this trip would be at least slightly disappointing (two losses to the Stag-Hen winner and Chicago wouldn’t be the end of the world). That being said, only the Trinity match presents no chance of an upset and the spring break will likely feature six matches between Bowdoin and a top-15 opponent.

Returning back to the regional part of the schedule will actually seem like the vacation, as Bowdoin ends March with matches at MIT and Conn College. While those are obviously two different levels of team, Bowdoin has had MIT’s number these past few years and should be fine. The second Sunday in April brings the Mammoths to Brunswick. Last year’s match at Amherst match was a 5-4 barnburner, so look for Bowdoin to take advantage of this year’s home cooking. The following weekend, Bowdoin goes to Brandeis and Middlebury. Playing at Deis is always tough, and though the Judges’ will likely be in the midst of a down year, that’s still a trap match if the Polar Bears look ahead to Saturday’s blockbuster. Midd will be favored at about seven spots, but we know Bowdoin is more than capable of winning this match.

Two of the classiest programs out there. Bowdoin and Wesleyan just want to be friends and frolic in the snow

Next, a string of three home matches against Colby, Williams and Bates. While Williams could end up being one of the biggest matches of the season, don’t sleep on either Maine team as well. Colby graduated their top guys, but we know they’re a team to watch in the coming years, and Bates has beaten Bowdoin in three of the past four regular seasons. On paper it shouldn’t be close this year, but that could have been said in previous years as well. Bowdoin finishes the regular season with a weekend away at Tufts and Wesleyan. That Wesleyan match to end the regular season could be a battle for anywhere between the #1 and #4 seeds at NESCACs the following weekend.

Finally, I just want to take a second to remind everybody out there just how capable this Bowdoin team is. They didn’t lose anybody from last year, they have a couple of really solid freshmen, and a bunch of upperclassmen with NCAA title experience. They play good doubles, can win at any singles spot, AND are senior-heavy…basically lots of predictors of post-season success. They may not have had the best fall results-wise, but I will be VERY surprised if Bowdoin isn’t one of the four or five teams in the conversation for the title come the middle of May. Anybody sleeping on Bowdoin right now…stay woke.

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