2017 Season Previews: #3 Middlebury Panthers

Location: Middlebury, Vermont

Coach: Bob Hansen, 6th season at Midd (2nd 29th season…)

ITA National Ranking: 3

ITA Regional Ranking: 2

Blog Power Ranking: 5 

Twitter Handle: @middtennis. Very reliable updates, solid hashtags and occasional arrogant snark.

Overview: For a brief moment, the rest of DIII was trembling. A top-4 of Farrell, Cuba, de Quant, and Derbani? Print the shirts! But now that Farrell is out for the year, a new type of Midd team lies in wait. An Panther-sized underdog. It’s been a long time since pre-season Midd wasn’t a lock to finish at or near the top of the NESCAC. Before all the Midd/NESCAC fans go flying off the rails (looking at you, D3Fan), I still think Midd will finish either 1st or 2nd in the conference, but for the 1st time in recent memory I wouldn’t be SHOCKED if they somehow finished 5th. GASP! Two simple schools of thought here. The fans will tell you that this is a team fresh off back-to-back finals appearances, with indisputably one of the best players in the country at the top of the lineup, and are led by the best coach in DIII history. Detractors would counter by pointing out the obvious (H)UGE losses of the All-American graduates Smolyar and Campbell, and that the Midd freshmen weren’t all that exciting in the fall. Perhaps even more surprisingly, both arguments are valid, leading to the wide range of 2017 scenarios. With some good experience and a killer schedule, I’m very excited to see just who this Panther team actually is.

Key Losses: Ari Smolyar (#2 singles/#2 doubles), Palmer Campbell (#3 singles/#1 doubles), Noah Farrell (temporary), (#1 singles/#2 doubles).

Key Additions: Lubomir Cuba (sophomore transfer from the University of Michigan), Allen Jackson (senior, back from injury), Weston Brach (3-star from Massachusetts), Alex Vanezis (3-star from Germany/South Carolina), Aleksandr Samets (0-star from NJ).

Realistic Best Case Scenario: Midd somehow gets Farrell back and blows by Bowdoin in a rematch of last year’s final to win a National Championship. 
Realistic Worst Case Scenario: None of the vets at the bottom of the lineup step up, and Midd plays close matches but inevitably loses to Bowdoin, Amherst, Williams and Wesleyan, while just missing out on the tournament.
Scenario Review: Yes the range is from national champion to missing the NCAA tournament completely, that’s how solid the top of DIII is this year. Realistically the Panthers are closer to the best case scenario, even without Farrell, than the worst, but they will need a lot of things to break their way in order to make a 3rd straight finals appearance.

Lineup Prediction:

#1 Lubomir Cuba, sophomore, UTR=12.96, range #1-2. ITA winner. 2nd place at the Oracle Cup. Two total singles losses this fall coming to Leung (projected Skidmore #1 and top-10 player in the country) and Manji (projected Emory #1-2 and top-10 player in the country) in the finals of both tournament draws. I think we’ve established that the Michigan transfer is going to be straight up studly. He also notched wins over Alex Taylor (projected Williams #2-4), Deepak Indrakanti (projected Williams #2-3), Josh Marchalik (projected Amherst #2-3), Arguello (projected Brandeis #1), David Liu (projected Chicago #1-2), and Mohanad Al-Houni (projected GAC #1). Not too shabby, and that’s why he’s my preseason pick to win the Individual title in May.

#2 William de Quant, junior, UTR=12.37, range #2-4. De Quant was quietly a beast at #4 last year, which is just the way he likes it. The then-sophomore didn’t lose one singles match in the entire final month of the season, beating guys from Wesleyan, Wash U, Chicago, and up a set on Bowdoin (twice). This fall has been more of the same. De Quant’s tournament losses came to Leung (projected Skidmore #1), Arguello (projected Brandeis #1), and Urken (projected Bowdoin #1-3). He also beat Arguello this fall, and made the finals of the singles draw at MIT with straight-set wins over Chen (projected Wesleyan #1) and Burney (projected Amherst #2-3). Look for De Quant to have another quietly productive year.

#3 Hamid Derbani, senior UTR=12.52, range #2-4. Last year, his 1st at Midd, Derbani was a streaky #5 who shook off the rust and turned into one of the best at his position in the country. That being said, being a great #5 does not necessarily translate into playing a solid #3. However, this fall Hamid made the A-Flight semis at Midd (losing to Farrell), knocked off Sean Ko (projected MIT #3-4), and Steven Chen (projected Wesleyan #1) at the ITA before falling to Grodecki (projected Williams #1) in 3-sets. His opening round loss at the MIT Invite to Wesleyan-freshman Princeton Carter was surprising, but he made up for it by making the finals of the consolation bracket. More on Hamid later, but the Panthers will need streaky-good Derbani if they are going to accomplish their 2017 goals. Also, Midd must have some sweet warm-ups. Check out their roster photos.

#4 Timo Van der Geest, junior, UTR=11.87, range #4-7. TVG and Schlanger are the best bets to play 4 this year for the Panthers. While neither will be as good as De Quant was last year, they both have been more than productive down at #6 in the past. Van der Geest had big wins over Wesleyan, Williams, Bates and Tufts last year, and his only conference losses were to Bowdoin (Urken 2x). He also had a great Midd tournament, winning the B flight and knocking off Brian Granoff (projected Deis #2-3), Ethan Chen (Tufts projected #4-6), and freshman-teammate Alex Vanezis. That being said, whichever Panther starts the year at #4, will likely have the toughest time bringing in consistent wins.

#5 Kyle Schlanger, junior, UTR=11.89, range #4-7. Schlanger was quite good at #6 last year after he was given the chance at the expense of Van der Geest. He was undefeated in seven regular season matches, including wins over Wesleyan and Amherst. TVG had a better fall than Kyle, which is why he gets the nod at 4 to begin with, but I think it’s possible, even likely that Schlanger ends the year there.

#6 Allen Jackson, senior, UTR=10.79 (50% reliability), range #5-7. Welcome back, Mr. Jackson, how our commenter must have missed you! Allen is back from a leg injury and the 5th-year senior is ready to lead his team. However, while I do not doubt his off the court leadership, he will need to prove that he’s ready to not only compete, but to win at the bottom of this lineup if he is going to retain his spot.

Other contenders: Alex Vanezis (freshman, UTR=10.92), Weston Brach (freshman, UTR=11.25), Cole Sutton (sophomore, UTR=10.71). Vanezis seems to be the most likely guy to break into the Midd lineup, but my guess is that Coach Hansen gives the experience the first shot. However, if Jackson or Schlanger or TVG struggle, don’t be surprised to see Vanezis or even Brach get their shots at the bottom of the lineup. Alex played the B flight at the Middlebury tournament in the fall, so at that point Coach Hansen thought he was one of the best 6 singles players for Midd, but that’s only somewhat relevant moving forwards as much has and will happened between the second weekend of September and the start of the spring season.

Schedule Analysis: http://athletics.middlebury.edu/sports/mten/2016-17/schedule

Midd starts the year with a couple of solid teams in Bates and Brandeis. Both should be good tests but not push the Panthers all that much, especially on their home (likely indoor) courts. After a Liberty League dip, Midd goes on their spring break trip to…TEXAS! Not Cali-bound this year, Coach Hansen has his crew playing some of the best teams in the country down south in March, including UTT, Trinity Tx, GAC, Emory and CMS. If Midd is 7-0 with 7 wins over top-30 caliber teams heading into Emory and CMS, those matches are going to be beyond exciting. After those casual spring break matches, Midd returns home to host Williams and Tufts. Midd should still be favored against both, and not having to play Tufts on the Jumbo’s indoor courts is a huge plus, but if Midd suffers a lapse after returning from sunny Texas, both teams (especially Williams) won’t have any trouble pouncing on the upset. A Maine trip for Colby and Bowdoin follows, and Midd’s match against Bowdoin could likely be for the #1 seed at NESCACs. The Panthers end their schedule with Trinity, Wesleyan and a trip to rival-Amherst to finish the regular season. Major seeding implications will likely lie on that final regular season match. These Midd Kids (had to throw it in somewhere) will be beyond ready come May, because in just about 7 weeks the Panthers play about 16 teams that could end the year in the top-30.

Keys to Success:

1. Depth: The top 3 in Midd’s lineup are a proven commodity at this point, even if we’re not quite sure of their collective ceiling. However, the bottom half of the Panther lineup is what’s going to make or break Coach Hansen’s squad in 2017. Schlanger has the most experience of any of the three projected starters, and all have at least some match experience, but none have been wildly successful at any position higher than #6 singles. Midd can rely on their top 3 singles and top doubles to beat most teams, but against the other contenders they are going to need a point or two from their depth. If any Panther can provide consistent wins at either #4 or #5, then Midd is ready to make a run at a 3rd straight finals appearance.

   

2. Doubles: The #HansenHallmark is strong doubles. Midd has played into that over the past couple years, but with the loss of Campbell and Smolyar this year might be a little tougher. Similarly to singles, I have no worries about any of the top 3 guys and their doubles prowess. However, neither Van der Geest nor Jackson have really found THAT much doubles success. All bets are off when you’re a 5th year senior, but Midd will need to find somebody to help anchor the #3 doubles team, as it’s a spot where a lot of the top NESCAC teams are vulnerable.
3. Derbani: I’ve talked a lot about Midd being able to rely on its top 3, but let’s not forget that Hamid Derbani is a wild card as well. The dude absolutely rakes his forehand, and can go out and beat anybody (he beat Steven Chen (Wesleyan projected #1) in straight sets at the ITA this fall), but he can also take a questionable loss or two. He is technically a senior this year, and will need to show his experience edge when the going gets tough. Much will be asked of Derbani this year, including leading the top doubles team and playing against some of the best players in the country. How Hamid responds might just be indicative of how Middlebury’s season plays out.

Season Prediction: This one is really damn difficult for me, because as I said, I could see Midd making a 3rd straight finals, and could see them just getting into NCAAs. As always when I write these previews, I start to believe in the team I’m writing about more than usual. I will undoubtedly want to revise this once we see Midd play Emory and CMS at neutral locations, but pencil me in for my 2nd NE team in the national semifinals! 2 team previews done, 2 Final-Four teams, are you really that surprised?