Location: Troy, NY
Coach: Jonathan Satkowski, 7th season
ITA National Ranking: NR
ITA Regional Ranking: 15
Blog Power Ranking: 28
Twitter Handle: @RPIMensTennis, made it’s debut this fall and was pretty solid with updates.
Realistic Best Case Scenario: Liberty League Champions and the school’s first men’s tennis NCAA appearance! If they beat Skidmore, I could see them making the Sweet 16 with the right draw, finishing the year around #20 in the country.
Realistic Worst Case Scenario: Yet another runner-up finish to Skidmore and a year end national ranking in the mid 30s.
Overview:
Hey, did you know RPI had a great recruiting class last year? They brought in two four-stars and two three-stars, and were ranked sixth in D3 on tennisrecruiting.net? What’s that? You’ve been told 17 times already? Oh….
I know I’m beating a dead horse at this point, as it seems like every time this team is discussed their recruiting class is brought up, but I had to put it out there right off the bat, especially since RPI’s success will be dictated in large part by how their four freshman perform. It’s unfair to say it’s all on them, however, as there are still six non freshman all looking to make an impact this spring, and they also deserve some recognition. Anyway, RPI has been steadily rising through the Liberty League since Coach Satkowski took over, and now that I actually look more closely at their historical results, I’m even more impressed with the way this program has been transformed. Back as recently as 2010, this team was getting crushed 9-0 or 8-1 by the likes of Hartwick, Oneonta, Hamilton, and Union. So while the recent recruiting success may seem to have come out of nowhere, I think it’s fair to say it has been the culmination of years of hard work, not just a random one-off. These days, RPI has been inching closer to taking down Skidmore to win the Liberty League, falling in the conference final three years in a row. With some fresh blood and Skidmore no longer at the level they were in the days of Oliver Loutsenko & co., could this be the year RPI finally defeats the Thoroughbreds? Will Sebastian Castillo-Sanchez and Zack Ebenfeld’s run to the Northeast ITA title be a precursor to more history being made (namely making NCAAs) for the Engineers?
Schedule Analysis:
RPI is another team that’s success mainly hinges on a few matches, none more so than the conference tournament. Obviously they need to take care of business in order to qualify for the tournament, where only the top four teams qualify, but I’d be very surprised if they are seeded anything besides #1 or #2. Skidmore is their main competition, but Hobart is a very improved young team, and though there’s a pretty big drop off after that, St. Lawrence did upset the Engineers last spring, so you can never be too certain about these things. Assuming all goes as expected, you can bank on an RPI-Skidmore Liberty League final match in what should be a doozy. The two teams will play earlier in the season in March in a battle for the likely #1 seed, and while less is at stake this first time around, the winner will probably avoid playing Hobart in the Liberty League semis, a nice bonus along with the mental edge before potentially playing again in May.
Besides the Liberty League, RPI has some nice other matches on the slate. They start off against Rochester, a match where they’ll be moderately tested but should come away with a win. Next it looks like they head down to Florida for spring break, and while their spring break schedule isn’t posted yet, I did some digging and it looks like they at least have matches against Amherst, Trinity (TX), and Franklin & Marshall. For as good as RPI’s recruiting class was, Amherst’s puts their to shame, and the Lord Jeffs shouldn’t have much trouble, although it is interesting that they are playing RPI and Hobart at the same time. I’ll be interested to see how Coach Doebler divides his lineup, as neither team is a pushover, and RPI has the potential to push a split squad Amherst. Trinity will also be strong favorites, but RPI can keep that match close, especially if they are able to sneak out a doubles win or two. Back north, RPI hosts Middlebury on 3/19. Don’t expect that one to be close, but it’s definitely a nice one to have on the schedule. Two other nice matchups pit RPI against other Northeast tech schools, first against Stevens, and then in some Engineer on Engineer action versus MIT. Last year’s Stevens squad against this year’s RPI would be a great match, but with Stevens hit hard by graduation, RPI should win comfortably (I have a feeling RegionalASouth may disagree). MIT, on the other hand, definitely has the upper hand in terms of talent, but the gap isn’t big enough to count RPI out, especially with MIT’s history of underachieving. Obviously there are plenty of fun matches this spring, but realistically, it all comes down to how they do against Skidmore on May 7th.
Keys to Success:
Top of the Lineup: RPI should be strongest in the 3-5 range, but 1-2 are more up in the air. Castillo-Sanchez (UTR 12.27) had a nice run to the semis of the Northeast ITA, including a thumping of Stevens #1 Danny Polk 6-1, 6-1, but against the upper tier of #1’s I don’t know how many wins he’ll find. For both #1 and #2, I believe whoever Coach Satkowski puts out there will be playing a spot higher than they ideally should be, so it’s going to be important for someone to step up and get this team some wins higher in the lineup.
Matchups: The reality is that their season is more or less made or broken by how they play Skidmore in Liberty Leagues. Both teams are pretty evenly matched, and it’s probably going to come down to how the teams matchup at specific positions. Leung should beat whoever RPI puts at #1, but past that, I don’t give either team an edge at any spot, so we’ll have to see how everyone’s games matchup. What’ll be interesting is to see whether either team’s lineup changes between their March match and a potential rematch in early May.
Adaptability: This mainly pertains to the four freshman, but one thing that jumped out at me about them is that two are from Florida, one is from California, and one is from Texas. Notice a trend? All warm climates with nary an indoor court to be found. Given the long winters of Upstate New York, RPI will probably be playing indoors for most of the spring, and it will be important that this team is able to embrace the indoor tennis, especially some of the funky surfaces they might have to play on. Beyond tennis, I’ve always thought it’d be tough moving away from a sunny, warm place to a colder climate, so how these rookies deal with the winter could be important.
Season Prediction:
I’ve gone on for a while about this team so I’ll finish off briefly. You have to feel good about the direction RPI is headed, but don’t think there won’t be some rough patches along the way. Such a young team is inherently unpredictable, and all the hype around them may create some unrealistic expectations, but I see RPI finishing in the top-30 and continuing their best-ever fall with the best spring in school history.