2017 Season Preview: #4 Wash U Bears

Welcome to D3Midwest10s’ first season preview. Just as a reminder, you can find me on Twitter @d3midwest10s and feel free to e-mail me at d3midwest10s@gmail.com. Let’s get to it…

wash-u

Coach: Roger Follmer, 16th Season

Location: St. Louis, Missouri

Preseason ITA Ranking: 4

Blog Power Ranking: 7

Twitter Handle: @WashUmTennis (Finally)

Overview:

What better way to start off my season previews than writing about Central Region powerhouse Wash U!  Over the last 9 years, the Bears have made it to the NCAA semifinals 7 times (though they have fallen in the quarters 2 of the last 3 years). What’s always impressive about the Bears is their ability to close out a season on a high note even when things aren’t going their way early on. Just look at last year. Until late April, it didn’t look like the Bears would be vying for an at-large bid. They had two losses at ITA Indoors (Case and Trinity) and barely squeaked by teams they’ve historically crushed. But Wash U showed its toughness at UAAs and later advanced to the NCAA Elite 8. With a good fall and most starters returning, expectations are much higher for the Bears this season.

Key Additions:

Bernardo Neves (#560 ITF Juniors), Robin Engel (#162 Tennis Recruiting), J.J. Kroot (#179 Tennis Recruiting), Jessie Korovin (#449 Tennis Recruiting)

Key Departures:

Tyler Kratky (#3 Singles/#3 Doubles), Josh Cogan (#1/#2 Doubles)

Lineup Analysis:

#1 Singles, John Carswell

We’ve seen it all from Carswell the past three years — the good and the bad. Luckily, if the fall is any indication of things to come, Carswell is going to have a lot of good this season. Honestly, I’ve had the pleasure of watching John play more than a few times and can’t quite figure out why he isn’t at the top echelon of #1s. A couple months ago, he took 5th in the Flight A singles of the Valpo Fall Invite, against solid DI players, before a good performance at ITA Regionals. There, Carswell advanced to the quarterfinal before falling to eventual champ David Liu. This is very promising given his early exits at ITAs the previous couple years. I don’t think that Wash U’s success lies at the hands of Carswell, but I don’t see why he shouldn’t qualify for NCAAs this year.

#2 Singles, Johnny Wu

There was a time when I thought Wu could play #1 for the Bears. And while I’m super high on him, his game isn’t suited for the top spot. Johnny grinds, grinds, and grinds from the baseline, waring opponents down, but at the top spot, he doesn’t match up well. I digress. What I’m most impressed with is how many/the caliber of tournaments he played over the summer, beating some solid DI opponents. His fall was just as good as Johnny took 3rd at the Valpo Invite and fell in the quarters of ITAs to Nick Chua (Chicago). Wu should be one of the top twos in the country and will be instrumental to Wash U’s success this year.

#3-5 Singles, Bernardo Neves

FRESHMAN. Look, I know I’ve talked about fall results quite a bit already, but let’s get one thing straight: fall results don’t determine the success a player will have in the spring. Reason I bring this up is because it’s hard to talk about freshmen, and all I can base anything from is fall results. I could see Neves playing anywhere from 3-5. His ITA “seed” (unseeded) and spot in the Valpo Invite place the freshmen at anyone of these three positions and I think #3 seems most likely. Neves took out his teammate Jason Haugen in straight sets and followed that up a week later at ITAs with wins over Robert Stroup (Case) and Nicholas Paolucci (Kenyon) before losing to the legendary Branden Metzler in the quarters. Admittedly, I haven’t seen young Neves play but just by glancing at his ITF junior ranking and fall results, he should be a solid 3-5.

#3-5 Singles, Jeremy Bush

All we saw of Bush this fall was doubles at ITAs. My assumption is that he has been nursing an injury, so we should see him back in singles. I’ve been so high on Jeremy since his freshman year, and he’s always been a dominant middle-lineup guy. While the experiment of putting Bush at 1 for Indoors didn’t work too well last season, he ended up beating everyone at 4 not named Sven Kranz or Adrien Bouchet. Something of note is that Haugen and Bush flipped spots for NCAAs, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Bush plays 5 this year. If he does, I don’t see any reason he shouldn’t go close to undefeated.

#3-5 Singles, Jason Haugen

The blog is very high on Haugen, and the junior has always been someone the Bears can look to for a win when it counts. Look at last season…loses to UW-Whitewater’s Zane Navratil in a regular season dual and then double bagels him in the Sweet 16; loses to Chicago’s Peter Leung in the regular season and then beats him at UAAs. He has the talent and power game to be a top of the lineup guy, but realistically, he’ll probably be playing 3-4.

#6 Singles Shaun Berman/Jake Klein/Konrad Kozlowski

Coach Follmer had a tough time finding a consistent performer at 6 last year, and if nobody has made unexpected leaps, I could see a similar rotation again this year. My expectations for the 6 spot aren’t the highest, but the good thing is that all of these guys have one year of playing experience under their belts.

Doubles

Love Wash U doubles and I’m extremely excited about potential pairings. I’m guessing the lineup will look something like this:

You're probably hoping Kroot is the guy on the left. He is.
You’re probably hoping Kroot is the guy on the left. He is.
  1. Haugen/Kozlowski
  2. Wu/Neves
  3. Bush/Kroot

Sure, Haugen/Kozlowski had a tough time transitioning from 2 to 1 last year, but their games and frames (see what I did there) are suited for 1. Wu’s playing style doesn’t scream doubles, so I’m curious to see how he and Neves perform. Finally, Kroot won the Indiana high school doubles title last year, and Bush has a wealth of experience.

Schedule Summary/Analysis:

http://washubears.com/sports/mten/2016-17/schedule

The Bears open up their season in early February with matches against non D3 opponents before heading to Indoors. In the opening round, Wash U faces a Kenyon team that could be sneaky good. I don’t see the Bears faltering; I wouldn’t be surprised if they finished in fourth (also wouldn’t be surprised if they came in second).

The most notable matches in March come at the Stag-Hen during Spring Break; I’ll be curious to see how Carswell fairs against Kai Yuen Leung when the Bears face Skidmore in the quarterfinal. Wash U would then face CMS/Wesleyan which could have Pool C implications.

After the Stag Hen, the final matches to circle before UAAs are on the weekend of April 14-16 when the Bears square off against UW-Whitewater and Chicago.

If you look at the schedule at this moment, it doesn’t look like one of the tougher ones out there. However, that’s because opponents for the later rounds of ITA Indoors and the Stag-Hen are naturally not listed. Taking those two tournaments and opponents into account makes this one very, very tough schedule.

Final interesting note: Wash U doesn’t play Case during the regular season (unless they meet at Indoors which I don’t see happening).

The hair deserves another picture.
The hair deserves another picture.

Conclusion:

With the talent and experience on their side, it’s hard not to be excited about the Bears this season. I was a little surprised that ASouth wrote in our inaugural power rankings, “Tis the season to doubt the Bears.” Wash U has a solid singles core, strong doubles, one of the best coaches out there, and the best hair style in D3. Don’t make the mistake again of counting them out.

4 thoughts on “2017 Season Preview: #4 Wash U Bears

  1. Carl's Jr.

    I think you are severely underestimating Mr. Kozlowski. He is a battle-toughened Polish man who doesn’t take no for an answer (on the tennis court). Off the court, he isn’t an expert in love, but he certainly is on the court, routinely handing opponents bagels. In terms of his doubles play, Konrad has great chemistry with Haugen, as both are the only geeds on the team. Overall Mr. d3midwest10s, I think you should reevaluate your heinous underestimation of the one we call “Doogs”

    1. d3midwest10s

      My sincerest apologies! I will be shocked if Mr. Kozlowski doesn’t play #1 singles this year!

  2. D3AtlanticSouth

    I am Kroot!

    1. D3AtlanticSouth

      Also when I said “tis the season to doubt the Bears,” I meant the offseason is always the time when everyone doubts them 🙂 I never doubt them!

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