2017 Season Preview: #31 Pacific (OR) Boxers

Pacific University (OR)

Coach: Brian Jackson (10^th season)

Location: Forrest Grove, OR

ITA Ranking: #31

Blog Power Ranking: #35 nationally, #7 in the west

Power 6 Rating: 62

Twitter Handle: @BoxerTennis – very strong updates

Twitter Hashtag: Nothing consistent…#GoBoxers looks to be a Pacific U athletics wide hashtag.  I think the tennis team can do better though!

Overview:

Man, I love me some Boxers tennis.  Pacific University in Oregon (as opposed to Pacific in CA) is just one of those teams that seems to outperform expectations and get solid NWC and out of conference results every year.  In 2015, Coach Jackson’s squad finished 2^nd in the NWC after tight wins against George Fox and Lewis & Clark.  Last season was more of the same, as they finished 2^nd and also got out of conference wins against Oberlin, Cal Lu, Occidental, Cal Tech, and Colby, a not spectacular but certainly solid group of wins.  These wins along with Lewis & Clark beating Whitman in season helped Pacific enter this year #31 in the country.  However, with the loss of #1 singles/doubles player Brennan Faith, along with Chris Dalton, plus a big recruiting class for Lewis & Clark, and young talent for George Fox, it remains to be seen if Pacific can continue to nail down the #2 spot in the NWC.  The Boxers have a great schedule this year, and will have lots of chances to get some good wins.  Let’s find out how the 2016-17 Boxers look in my final season preview!

Keys to the Season:

Upperclassmen experience

Of the four returning singles starters for the Boxers, we have three seniors (Clark Wininger, Reuben Mulhern, Josh Bernstein) and a junior (Oscar Wight).  This might rear its ugly head in a year from now, but for now, the Boxers can really look to these guys for strong leadership on and off the court.  The three seniors all made the round of 16 at ITAs, meaning the Boxers should be in good position on the singles court come match time.

Strong doubles play

Pacific played some excellent doubles last year, winning 2 or 3 doubles matches against Lewis & Clark (swept and won 6-3), Colby (won 2 of 3 and won 6-3), George Fox (won 2 of 3 and won 6-3), and Lewis & Clark in the NWC tournament (won 2 of 3, won 5-2).  To take their results to the next level, the Boxers need to start taking 2 of 3 or sweeping some top 30 teams like Whitman, but the fact that they were up 2-1 or 3-0 consistently against the other NWC schools is a huge boost going into what are typically very even singles matches.  Pacific got some love in ITAs this year with the #3 seed (Clark Wininger/Oscar Wight) and the #4 seed (Josh Berinstein/Reuben Mulhern).  Wininger/Wight reached the semis before losing to the #1 seeds from Whitman and Bernstein/Mulhern made the quarters before falling to the champions, Spencer Watanabe/Alex Namba from George Fox.

Continue the great development

Pacific has always really impressed me with their development.  On their Tennis Recruiting page, they don’t have anybody ranked higher than a 2-star and they are ranked #31 in the country.  One guy I loved to cover from my first year on the blog, Giancarlo Battaglia, was a very good #1 singles player and was only a 2 star.  Seniors Reuben Mulhern, Clark Wininger, and Josh Bernstein are all 1 stars or 0 stars.  I could go on and on, but it’s really impressive to see how consistently good some of these players get.  Luciano Ferrer looks like the top freshman right now, but I’m sure all four of these guys will improve greatly over the course of the year.

Key Additions: Luciano Ferrer (2 star/9.55 UTR), Rayden Murata (9.23 UTR), Ford Nakagawa (9.63 UTR), Sean Murphy (8.56 UTR)

Key Departures: Brennan Faith (#1 singles, #1 doubles), Chris Dalton (#5 singles, #2 doubles)

Projected Lineup:

#1 singles: Clark Wininger (SR – UTR 11.86) – With a UTR of over a point higher than anyone else on the Boxers, plus a truly excellent record at #2 singles last year (record of 15-1, wins over Phillip Locklear of Whitman, Vlad Murad of Colby, Jamie McDonald of Denison and almost anyone else on Pacific’s schedule), Wininger looks like the sure-fire #1 guy.

#2 singles: Reuben Mulhern (SR – UTR 10.50) – Mulhern likely will be #2 or #3 (switched with Oscar Wight), but I’m just putting Mulhern higher because of his ITA performance of making the round of 16 and taking Petar Jivkov (Whitman) to 3 sets.  Mulhern was a good #4 last year with a 12-4 total record, so it will be interesting to see how he would do with a jump up 2 spots.

#3 singles: Oscar Wight (JR – UTR 10.25) – If the Australian junior Wight stays at #3, he should have a solid year as he did last year, where he went 7-5, though he did struggle a little more against the better NWC schools, losing to Nick Grafton (George Fox), Kevin Ross (Lewis & Clark, though this was 13-11 in a super), and Layne Ryerson (Whitworth).

#4 singles: Josh Bernstein (SR – UTR 10.28) – Bernstein played mostly #6 last year, but with a solid ITA performance, I think he can make the jump to #4 in his final year.  Bernstein had a record of 12-4, playing mostly #6, and 2 of the 4 losses were in 3 sets, meaning Bernstein competed well in just about every match he played in.

#5 singles: Luciano Ferrer (FR – UTR 9.55) – The freshman has only played two college matches, but his second was a 6-2, 6-4 loss to Raed Attia, the talented sophomore from Lewis & Clark who will probably play #1 again this year.  He’s no David Ferrer, but #5 or #6 should be a good spot for Ferrer to succeed in his first year in college tennis.

#6 singles: Sage Katayama (JR – UTR 9.08) – Sage has played sporadically the past couple of years, playing mostly #4-6 against the lower NWC schools, and doing very well at that spot.  Sage, the freshman Sean Murphy, and the freshman Rayden Murata are likely the three guys competing for this 6^th spot, along with Ferrer above.

I hate predicting doubles, but #1 doubles and #2 doubles will likely be a mix of the upperclassmen, probably Wininger/Wight at #1 and Bernstein/Mulhern at #2, at least to start the year off.  The other two teams that played at ITAs for Pacific were Griffin Fraser/Sean Murphy and Sage Katayama/Rayden Murata, with Katayama/Murata winning a round against Whitworth 8-6.

Schedule Analysis:  http://www.goboxers.com/schedule.aspx?path=mten

The Boxers tend to have a pretty innovative out of conference schedule every year.  In 2015, they had a southern Cali trip where they took on Midd, Cal Tech, RPI, Redlands, and UCSC.  Last year, they featured an Ohio trip with matches against Denison, Wooster, and Oberlin, along with a Cali trip.

This year, they are a part of Spring Break Walla Walla where they will take on Gustavus Adolphus and Pomona-Pitzer, two great opportunities, and it will be interesting to see if they can make any noise against Gustavus in particular.

Late February and all of March features the customary NWC schedule, with big matches against Lewis & Clark (2/18), Whitman (2/26), and George Fox (3/18).  In late March, the Boxers will head east, where they will take on NC Wesleyan, VA Wesleyan, and Salisbury, more solid matches.

Once April hits, the Boxers will play Lewis and Clark, George Fox, and Whitman all second time, before hopefully playing in the NWC tournament 4/23-4/24 (only 4 schools make the tournament).

Best Realistic Scenario:

In an ideal season, Pacific battles with GAC (falling 6-3 or so), falls to PP, then takes down Lewis & Clark and George Fox before shocking the world and taking out Whitman 5-4.  They then run the table on the east coast and come back and do it all over again (maybe losing to Whitman the second time), but still getting the #1 seed in the NWC tournament, running the table, and qualifying for NCAAs.

Worst Realistic Scenario:

In a worst-case scenario, Pacific falls to GAC and PP, then loses tight matches to Lewis & Clark and George Fox, before losing badly to Whitman.  They then have a rough trip on the east coast, losing three tight matches.  Despite all this, they still beat everyone else in their conference, get the #4 seed in the NWC tournament, and fall to Whitman in the first round.

The most realistic scenario is obviously somewhere in between this.  I think Pacific is going to have another solid year after returning all but two starters, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they finish #2 in the NWC once again.  However, as D3Central has written about, development is terrific but can only go so far.  If Pacific can start to recruit more two stars, as well as some three stars, they can really start to develop these guys and start to challenge for the NWC crown.  However, that is not to take away anything from Coach Jackson and the rest of the Boxers, who clearly work extremely hard and put themselves in the best position to win, match in and match out!