2017 Season Preview: #26 Swarthmore Garnet

I am happy to say that I will be finishing my season previews after this.  This allows me to totally prepare for the fantasy draft, which we will be completing on Monday, January 16th.  Shoutout to Martin Luther King, Jr.  Now that I’m on the topic of the draft, let me say this.  If you want to know more about the draft, maybe I can write up an article preparing the readers for what to expect.  Maybe, if there’s enough interest.  Tweet me at the usual @d3atlanticsouth or @realDonaldTrump for your questions regarding the Fantasy Draft.  Now, to the Garnet.

Overview

Swarthmore, Swarthmore, Swarthmore.  Led by a historic coach, a young and active leader, and a bevvy of up and coming players, the Garnet could become a team to watch this season.  Or, they could continue playing second fiddle to the Hopkins Blue Jays in their conference.  Pool C, probably not an option.  The Garnet have to win their conference to have a shot at the playoffs.  Gotta love the rivalry.  Swarthmore has been a pretty consistent team over the years.  By that, I mean they’ve consistently been in the 20-35 range, grinding away, hoping for their chance.  That chance happened last year and unfortunately they weren’t able to capitalize (or fortunately, depending on what team you root for).  I’ve always been a fan of this workmanlike team, but being a fan and a believer are two different things.  What’s in store for the Garnet this year?

Coach: Mike Mullan, 37th! Season, aka the Veteran aka the Sage

Location: Swarthmore, PA

Preseason Ranking: #26

Blog Power Ranking: #25

Twitter Handle: @SwatMensTennis, good follow for scores

Team Hashtag: My personal favorite is #SwatTeam, because puns.

Key Additions

Kevin Xu (#235), William Teoh (#402)

Key Departures

William “American Idol” Chung, Matthew Hirsh, Jess Karol, none played in lineup

Lineup Analysis

#1 Singles, Mark Fallati (UTR 11.76)

One of my favorite blog followers is Mark Fallati.  And Mark Fallati is going to have a big year this year.  I picked Mark to win the ITA Tournament in the fall and it almost came true.  He was taken out by the red hot Courtney Murphy of Wilkes in three tight sets.  Last year, he beat Buxbaum, Griffin, and Acaba within his region.  He’s probably the second best or third best player in the region right now for sure.  A lock for NCAAs in my book, Fallati will look to have more dual match success this year as Swarthmore hopefully expands their schedule as they try and climb in the rankings.

#2 Singles, John Larkin (UTR 11.68)

Larkin was overtaken by Fallati last year as the top dog on the Garnet, but I am sure the humble and talented player can handle a “demotion” to the #2 singles spot.  This is Larkin’s senior year and much will be expected of him.  He suffered 2 losses all year at the #2 spot last year, one against Jeremy Dubin (who he beat earlier) and one to Sir William Bannister of W&L.  He started off this year on a downnote, losing to Hopkins freshman William Carey, which was pretty damn surprising to me.  Expect Larkin to bounce back from a tough fall and create a potentially potent 1-2 punch for Swarthmore.

#3 Singles, Kevin Xu (UTR unknown)

I’m going to go out on a limb here and put the young freshman Kevin Xu decently high in the lineup.  While this may or may not come to fruition, Xu had a win this fall that really stood out to me – a super breaker win over Emerson Walsh of Hopkins.  I believe Walsh to be Hopkins 4th best player and I love the result in Xu’s first college match.  A freshman that can come in and fill the hole left by those who have not stepped up into the #3 spot.  I have always touted Swarthmore as a “Big 3” type team with Cepelewicz at the #3, but the fact of the matter is he’s a #4 or #5 player at this time in his career.  Xu will step up into an important part of the lineup.  Expect a rocky road if it’s this high.

#4 Singles, Ari Cepelewicz (UTR 10.60)

With UTR’s so close, I would expect Coach Mullan to go with his experienced player a bit higher in the lineup, meaning Cepelewicz gets to try again to make a difference in the middle of the lineup. He cleaned up against weaker opponents last year but also took losses to Nicholas Garcia, Matt Miles, Jack Rothman (F&M), Charles Drake (Stevens), Chase Friedman (Whitman), and Fergus Scott (Bates).  Basically, any top 30 match he played, he lost.  That needs to change this year.  He’s off to another poor start with a loss in the Fall ITA, but at least that was to projected #2 Matt Miles.  Cepelwicz will be a key to the season in his junior year.

#5 Singles, Josh Powell (UTR 10.70)

Another guy with a high 10 UTR, Josh Powell is going to be one of the guys that the Garnet rely heavily on to make an impact in the wins column.  Powell started last year in a bit of a slump, losing a few matches at the #6 spot, but something seemed to spark after he took out Emerson Walsh of Hopkins in a dual match.  He then became a pretty solid #5 singles player and it may continue into this year.  With an impressive win over projected #2 W&L player Sir William Bannister, Powell looks the current part to play #5 singles.  Expect the seasoned junior to play a ton of matches and hopefully be a rock at this spot.

#6 Singles, Simon Vernier (UTR 10.73)

There are a few other players with higher UTRs but way lower reliability ratings than the younger Vernier, but they simply don’t have any strong results.  This means we get Vernier, who actually played #4 singles last year.  Like I mentioned earlier, I think anyone from #3-#6 can be interchanged, as you can see from their UTRs.  Vernier lost to basically anyone that mattered at #4 last year, leading me to believe he should be playing a little lower and really giving the Garnet a better bottom of the lineup.  Throw a freshman at #3 and see how he does to gain some valuable experience.  Use your rocks at #5 and #6 and leave the wild cards to your weakest spots.  You feel me, Coach Mullan?

Doubles

Swarthmore can hang their hat on one thing, maybe.  The team of Fallati/Powell should be able to hold their own at the #1 spot.  Everything else, however, is up for interpretation.  I wouldn’t expect to see the same teams we saw at ITAs unless Swarthmore is confident that Larkin/Oetting can transform into a great #2 team.  I jsut don’t see the doubles depth here to have a really really successful season, but I have been wrong many times before.  I’d seriously consider trying to find a doubles specialist #1 team (much like Emory) and use a combo with Fallati at the #2 spot.  Doubles specialists are freaking valuable!

Schedule Analysis

http://swarthmoreathletics.com/schedule.aspx?path=mten

This is the best schedule I’ve reviewed for a team so far this year.  It’s almost like they talked to D3Central right before the Van Zee Vault and asked for a preview of his scheduling article.  They have opponents from all different rankings and a lot of opportunities to prove themselves.  Good job, Swarthmore.  Let’s check it out.

They start with a second leg of a home and home with Whitman – aka a carryover from last year.  But before that, they will warm up with a big match against Christopher Newport the day before.  This is the perfect match for them before they take on Whitman. A match they should win but a match they will need to be focused for at home.  So to recap, a weekend at home against CNU and Whitman. Take both of those, you’re in the top 22 Swat.  Moving on.

Swat goes down and does battle with two teams behind them on the road – Sewanee and W&L.  Both these teams are in the top 40 but not the top 30 at this point.  But, they are talented teams that Swarthmroe cannot overlook.  Coach Mullan is really building his team’s toughness with matches like these, especially on the road.  Add that to the confidence they’ll gain with two wins, and they’ll be going into Spring Break with some firepower…

Which leads me to Spring Break – Redlands, Pomona, CMU, and CMS, in order of difficulty.  These are the matches that really give Swarthmore their big chances, especially Redlands.  Going into Redlands is never an easy task, but with Redlands potentially on a down year, this is one of the Garnet’s most important matches.  I’m not going to make predictions, but you know this one is gonna be close.  Pomona/CMU/CMS might be a little out of the Garnet’s league, but this will provide them with some great experience against the top tier of teams.

The rest of the way, Swarthmore will play 4 ranked teams – Mary Wash, Stevens, Amherst, and Hopkins.  I expect that Swat will be ahead of the first two teams by this point in the year.  They’ll be favorites in those.  They will then play Amherst in their warm-up for their rival, Johns Hopkins. They beat Hop on their own courts last year and this was smartly scheduled right before the Centennial Conference tournament.  They’ll get to make upset adjustments if they lose and at least get a gauge of the current Hopkins team.  They may have been surprised last year since Hop basically went into the Centennial with no track record of success whatsoever.

If they win the tournament, they’ll make NCAAs.  That hasn’t been done in years.  Let’s see if it happens this year.

D3ASouth’s 3 Keys to Success

• Two for One – Shape up the doubles court.  For a team with upset aspirations, Swarthmore has kind of moved away from the doubles upset tennis model, which leaves them with very little margin for error.  If Fallati doesn’t play well, Swarthmore is well, for lack of a better term, done.  Teams like Swat need to give their lower players the most chances for upsets, because that’s where good teams beat you.  You can have a sick #1, but the sick #5s and 6s do it for you.  That includes doubles.  Doubles sets the tone.  Focus on it.

• Battle Tested – Like I mentioned, Swat’s schedule is a work of art.  That being said, a work of art can be ruined by a 5 year old kid’s finger painting.  They have scheduled a ton of lower ranked matches in order to get battle-ready.  If they aren’t ready to take on opponent’s best shots, a team like UMW, CNU, or even W&L has the ability to surprise them.  Combine that with the first key, and we’re talking danger.  Also, their season comes down to that final match with Johns Hopkins.  Swarthmore needs to stay close with teams like Redlands, Pomona, CMU, and Amherst so they can get max experience in a tight situation against a presumably more talented team.  Utilize your schedule properly.

• FALLATI – Let’s be totally honest.  Mark Fallati’s play this year is going to make or break them.  Against Hopkins – he’ll be up against Buxbaum twice.  Hopkins does well when the MVP wins both his matches, or even 1.  Pretty bad when he doesn’t.  If we’re going to look at Swarthmore’s season in one match, it’s that match against Hopkins.  Good luck out there, Mark.

Conclusion

There’s a lot to like about Swarthmore this year.  I even wrote a way more detailed preview than I thought I would.  But, they have to capitalize.  That’s really all there is to it.  Anyways, I would like you to know we will be fantasy drafting on Monday, 8:30 PM.  Expect some write-ups to come out after that. Get pumped. Stay woke. Go Swat. ASouth, OUT.