2017 Season Preview: #12 Williams Ephs

Happy Super Bowl Sunday, boys and girls! I’m dealing with my Pats anxiety by diving into The Blog. I strongly considered making this whole article prop bets-themed, but I think I’ll turn that into a separate article somewhere down the road. You know, something like, “over/under 1.5 NE teams in the final four”, or “over/under 20 times per day D3AS mentions DraftKings on social media in the time leading up to Indoors”, or “over/under 6 Lady Gaga mentions in this article.” Hint: over, way over, and keep reading. I’ll move west from Foxboro to Williamstown, so that we can take a closer look at the Ephs. They have the #4 class in DIII, with an even better class on the horizon, and only one projected starting senior. Things are once again looking up for Williams, but there will be doubters until these Ephs make some NCAA tournament noise. They definitely have the coaching, they probably have the talent, now let’s just hope they have the TB12-like effort and have their tennis balls at the proper PSI (yes, we can joke about it too, Supreme Overlord Goodell.) Tennis…

Location: Williamstown, Massachusetts

Coach: Dan Greenberg, 8th year as Williams Head Coach

ITA National Ranking: 12th

ITA Regional Ranking: 4th

Blog Power Ranking: 11th

Twitter Handle: @EphsTennis. Top-10 for scores. Top-3 for nicknames. Top-1 for cute dog-avatars

Key Losses: Jose Raventos(#1 singles/#2 doubles), Alex Schidlovsky(#3 singles/#1 doubles), Howie Weiss(#6-7 singles), Brian Astrachan (doubles specialist)

Key Additions: Ben Lebowitz (4-star/179 from Massachusetts), Anath Raghavan (4-star/49 from New York), Alex Taylor (4-star/80 from Ohio), Chris Wootton (Assistant Coach extraordinaire)

Realistic Best Case Scenario: Williams’ doubles are top 5 in the country. Two of the three freshman produce consistent wins at their respective spots in the lineup, and both BG and Deepak win more than 2/3 of their matches at the top of the lineup. Williams upsets either Bowdoin or Midd and finishes top 2 in the NESCAC, earning their own region at NCAAs and making the quarterfinals for the first time since their title run in 2013. 
Realistic Worst Case Scenario: The top of the lineup struggles, the doubles are inconsistent, Williams hangs with but loses to Bowdoin, Midd, Wesleyan and Amherst, and drops a tough road match at Tufts, somehow leaving them out of NESCACs for what might be the 1st time ever.
Scenario Review: Generally I think teams are closer to their worst-case scenario, but the opposite is true for Williams. I think there is too much talent, and too much good coaching for that to happen. I’m usually high on Williams to start the year because I’ve seen what the right group under Coach Greenberg’s tutelage is capable of. While I’m a bit worried about the top of the lineup, I don’t really believe it’s possible for Williams to fall below 5th in the conference, but on the right day I can definitely see them beating Bowdoin or Middlebury.

Lineup Prediction:

#1 Brian Grodecki, junior, UTR=12.55, range #1-3. Grodecki was one of the most improved players in the region last year, and perhaps the entire country. Don’t get me wrong, he had a good freshman year at #5, but his jump up to a successful #2 is just behind Tercek and Rosen (who jumped from #5 to successful #1s). This fall, BG had two routine wins in the dual matches against Vasser and Springfield (dropping a total of three games combined), made the quarters of the ITA with wins over Ali and Derbani (projected Tufts #2 and Middlebury #3), and won three of his four singles matches at the MIT tournament (albeit circled around a loss to Ali). Grodecki had an even better fall in the doubles department, and should be locked into the #1 spot with freshman Alex Taylor. Williams has the singles depth this year, so the main positions in questions are their top spots. Williams needs Grodecki to have taken another step forward, otherwise this could be a weak spot all year.

#2 Deepak Indrakanti, sophomore, UTR=12.26, range #1-3. Like Grodecki, Deepak seems to have made a big jump between his freshman and sophomore years. Indrakanti was one of the best #6’s in the country last year, but his year was totally overshadowed by Urken’s (Bowdoin) undefeated season. In fact, one of Indrakanti’s two losses last year came 11-9 in a super to Urken. Both guys seem to have made the leap, and Indrakanti was slotted in at #2 in the dual match against Vassar. He also made the quarters at the ITA knocking off Jiang (Bowdoin projected #4) and Zykov (Amherst projected #1), before getting beaten by Cuba (projected Midd #1). Before this fall I had penciled Shastri into this spot, but given his fall struggles it was very important that somebody else stepped up. Deepak playing consistent #2 this year would be bigly for the Ephs.

#3 Alex Taylor, freshman, UTR=12.22, range #1-5. Look at the big brain range on Brett Alex. Taylor has clearly established himself as Williams’ top freshman, and might have been the most impactful NE freshman this fall (which is impressive given Amherst’s class and the other freshmen in the region). Taylor played #5 against Vassar and moved up to #3 against Springfield, both of which he won handily. He smoked Gupte (Tufts projected #1) at the ITA, but lost to Cuba in the 3rd round. At MIT, he beat Carstens (projected Bowdoin #6-7), Fung (projected Amherst #5-7) and Granoff (projected Brandeis #2-3) before losing in 3 sets to Arguello (projected Brandeis #1). As I mentioned above, he also had an awesome doubles fall with Grodecki and those two appear rock solid at the top of the Eph’s lineup. While the this #3 placement may seem high, if Shastri continues to struggle this is where I see Taylor ending up. However, if Shastri returns to form, then Taylor should be even more deadly lurking in the bottom 1/2 of the lineup.

#4 Rohan Shastri, senior, UTR=10.74, range #2-7. A loss at #3 against Vassar, a loss at #2 against Springfield, a loss against Marchalik (projected Amherst #2-4), a loss against Coran (Tufts projected #3-6) at MIT, and an 0&0 loss to Schlanger (Midd projected #4-5) in the consolation bracket at MIT. Tough fall for Rohan, who went 5-4 at #2 last year for the Ephs and went 8-5 against top-20 teams at #1-3 the year before that. His UTR has taken a hit, but let’s hope his confidence didn’t. Shastri and Alex White are the only seniors listed on Williams’ roster, meaning Shastri NEEDS to be the team’s on-court leader. While Williams has seen highly touted recruits fizzle in the past, I believe in the one they call Local-Ro (he hails from Williamstown), and I’m counting on his seniors spring to be stellar no matter what lineup spot he’s playing.

#5 Sachin Raghavan, junior, UTR=11.66, range #4-7. Raghavan played ahead of Taylor in the Vassar match, but behind him for the Springfield match. This fall his main draw losses came only to Murad (projected Colby #2) and Cauneac (projected MIT #1), so no real trouble there. Last year Sachin was one of the more consistent point producers at #4/5, and I think he’ll stay that way if he remains in this area of the lineup. Known for being a fighter (he only lost one straight set match all of last spring), I like elder Raghavan to come away with a slew of wins at #5.

#6 Jordan Sadwosky, junior, UTR=12.03, range #5-7. I feel pretty good about predicting the top 5 of this lineup, but I’m less sure on Sadwosky. The sophomore didn’t play a whole lot as a freshman, dropping matches against PP and Tufts at #6 when called upon, and then did the same thing last year against the likes of Midd and Amherst (although he did beat a few more players last year). Like Raghavan, Sadowsky didn’t go abroad his junior fall, and I’m hoping he used it to train, otherwise Lil’ Raghavan is the most likely to take over this spot. For Coach Greenberg its a good problem to have, as there are a couple of talented freshman waiting in the wings and doing their thing just hoping for some love.

Other contenders: Ben Lebowitz, freshman, UTR=11.26, range #5-7, Anath Raghavan, freshman, UTR=11.35 (88% reliability), range #6-7, Alex Gueganic, sophomore, UTR=12.14 (0% reliability), range #6-7. I’m going to start with Lil’ Raghavan here, because he actually played in the two dual matches this fall, winning both matches handily. At MIT, he lost to Barr (projected MIT #2) and Daniels (projected Wesleyan #5-7), sandwiched around two wins over likely non-lineup players. So although he went 4-2 this fall, I’m still waiting to see a little more from the freshman before I commit to him playing #6. That being said, I think it’s either him or Sadowsky for the starting role to open the year. After those two, the likely next option is another freshman, Ben Lebowitz. Lebo had a nice win over Rozovsky (projected Bowdoin #6-7) in the MIT backdraw, but lost to Cheng (MIT projected #4) and Derbani (Midd projected #3) at that same tournament. The Cheng loss was close (6-4 in the 3rd), and Lebo did get the nod at #6 vs Springfield over Sadowsky. He’s certainly a viable option, even if I think he’s probably behind the other two right now. Gueganic is mainly here as an interesting tidbit. He didn’t play at all for Williams last year, but his UTR is still VERY high for somebody in this spot. I don’t really know much else about him, but with a UTR over 12 you make the “other contenders” list.

Schedule Analysis: http://ephsports.williams.edu/sports/mten/2016-17/schedule

Williams gets a pre-spring break NESCAC match in, but should roll over Hamilton. Then they do their usual thing, start out West with a couple less important matches before taking on PP, Chicago, Redlands and CMS in 6 days. WOW! It’s rare that an NE team has that big a week in which it’s not playing any conference matches, but that’s a monster. Thinking Williams is going to win all of those matches is beyond delusions of grandeur (luckily, I believe I coined that phrase.) PP looks vulnerable after their disappointing show against Whitman yesterday, but 2-2 against those 4 teams keeps Williams right where they need to be (3-1 and they’re sitting pretty).

Returning home doesnt get any easier, as the Ephs’ first two matches after their West Coast swing are at Midd and at Wesleyan. Again, if Williams can split those, they will be in great shape. The following weekend brings Stevens and Tufts, both on down years but neither should be overlooked. Then the Maine teams come-a-callin as Bowdoin and Colby visit Williamstown. Finally the season ends with a trip down the road to Amherst and a home match against Trinity CT. Interestingly, Williams and Bates don’t play this year, which puts more pressure on the Tufts match for NESCAC seeding. Hopefully for Williams that doesn’t matter because they’ve taken care of Tufts and either Wesleyan or Amherst to keep themselves right on the Pool-C bubble. Barring some crazy non-conference results or an unlikely conference champion, I think the NESCAC #3 is a lock this year (same with the UAA #3), and the last two spots are up for grabs between 2 NESCAC and 2 UAA teams. As of right now, if Williams beats all the teams ranked below them, I think they have good shot at getting in as the final team.

Keys to Success:

1. Local Ro. I was pretty clear about this in the lineup prediction section, but if Williams is going to make waves in 2017 then it will be behind the leadership of Rohan Shastri. One of two seniors, Rohan has the lineup experience and talent to get it done. He will have to put the past behind him, which is much easier for me to type than for him to do, but I believe he more than capable of doing just that. It doesn’t matter if he’s playing #5 or #2, if Shastri is constantly bringing in W’s, the rest of the lineup will follow.
2. #2 singles. Grodecki has the capability to hang with (and beat) a lot of #1’s around the country. However, #1 is almost always going to be a battle, no matter what level of team you’re facing. #2 is not always the same story. Right now it seems like #2 is going to be Deepak Indrakanti, and let’s hope the super sophomore is willing to take the challenge. If he isn’t then it could be Alex Taylor, or even, yup, you guessed it, Mr. Shastri. Whoever is called upon to slot in at #2 is going to need to deliver if Williams wants to earn D3AS’ love make it back to the Elite 8.
3. Freshmen. Usually I would make doubles one of the three keys, but Williams has been just about as consistent a doubles team as any NE team (maybe with the exception of Midd). They play good doubles, and that should only be helped by the addition of Assistant Coach #OldManWootton. That leaves the other typical wild card, the freshen. Taylor had a great fall, but still hasn’t played any tight dual matches, and Lil’ Raghavan and Lebowitz are still very unproven. As I said in the scenario review, if two of these three are starting and taking names, Williams should be in great shape.

Season Prediction: Somehow I’ve left some of the toughest predictions for last. I like this Williams squad. I think I’ll like them even more in 2017 with their loaded recruiting class, but I still like them now. The difference between #1 and #5 in the NESCAC is not that big, and the difference between #3 and #5 is infinitesimal. Williams likely fits into that #3-#5 section, which means they’ll be smack dab in the middle of the Pool-C picture. If they do make the tournament, they are not a team I would want to face. Go Ephs, go Pats, go Blog.