2017 Season Preview: #1 Bowdoin Polar Bears

Hello, boys and girls, and welcome to another year of season previews. While I hope you’ve been reading the other previews that have been dropping over the past couple weeks, today is my first of the season and I couldn’t be more excited. New slate of season preview, new D3NE. Fewer #WallsOfText, more #Blurbs. So let’s begin. THE CHAMPS ARE HERE!

Location: Brunswick, Maine

Coach: Conor Smith, 6th season

ITA National Ranking: 1

ITA Regional Ranking: 1

Blog Power Ranking: 3 (no respect)

Twitter Handle: @polarbeartennis. Pretty darn good!
Reliable updates with very little flair. Although I would probably pay to see a Jerry Jiang Twitter Takeover…

Overview: First and foremost, never forget. I know I know, it’s a new season and a the NCAA title hangover is real. In fact, a defending champion has not advanced past the NCAA quarterfinals since Wash U did it all the way back in 2008. When you think about the teams that are perennial contenders who have also won in that span (Amherst, CMS, Emory, and Midd, just to name a few), that’s somewhat unbelievable! Bowdoin’s quest for a repeat is also hindered by the strength of the other top DIII teams. Emory, Midd and CMS all lost a major player (Rafe, Farrell/Smolyar/Campbell, Butts), but are still primed make a run at the 2017 title. Chicago has about as many stars as any team in DIII history, and the rest of the NESCAC contenders are itching for their shot at the champs.

Losing Trinka and Savage will hurt more than their lineup positions might suggest, and if anything Bowdoin seems primed to continue the pattern of post-title regression. That’s exactly why I’m predicting they will buck the trend and make the semis this springtime. The Bowdoin team that won last year was a significant underdog against Midd in the finals, they were even more of an underdog against an undefeated Emory team in the semifinals. They did it best when nobody thought they had it in them. You can expect a loss here or there, nobody thinks that the 2017 Polar Bears will run the table, but you can also expect that this team will not beat itself, which is an extremely valuable trait come May.

Key Losses: Luke Trinka (#3 singles & #1 doubles) and Chase Savage (#3 doubles)

Key Additions: Luis Cuervo (10.98 UTR/2-Star from Texas), Justin Patel (11.14 UTR/3-Star from New Jersey), Eliot Rozovsky (11.32 UTR/3-Star from Massachusetts). I think their ratings might have dropped after they were accepted into Bowdoin?

Realistic Best Case Scenario: 

Realistic Worst Case Scenario: It’s pretty amazing, but the range of possibilities for the defending national champions is vast. The Polar Bears could both easily repeat and win back-to-back championships for the first time since Williams in ’01-’02, or finish 4th in their own conference! I know Bowdoin will technically be favored against teams like Amherst, Midd, and even Wesleyan/Williams, but it’s certainly possible that they drop a couple of the close matches they won last year, lose to 3 or 4 top-10 teams (both in and out of conference), and enter NCAAs as a #2 seed in a NESCAC foe’s region. The strength of DIII tennis is enamoring to me as a blogger, but is terrifying to me as a lover of dynasties.

Lineup Prediction:

#1 Luke Tercek, junior, UTR=12.22, range #1-3. Tercek was the one Polar Bear to go abroad this fall, and that always makes for an interesting reinsertion into the tennis life. Good news for Bowdoin, if Luke starts the year slow, they have a couple of guys who would be just fine at #1 in Urken or Wolfe. However, the Polar Bears need their big man to do what he did at NCAAs last year if they want to hoist the title again.

#2 Grant Urken, sophomore, UTR=12.67, range #1-4. Perhaps nobody had a more surprising fall than Grant Urken. Look, when you are undefeated at any spot through a season it’s pretty incredible, but we also all know the jump required to go from winning matches at #6 to winning matches against some of the best players in the country. Remember the jump that dearly departed Luke Trinka made between his freshman and sophomore years?

#3 Kyle Wolfe, junior, UTR=12.20, range #1-4. Wolfe at #3 would be an absolute nightmare for opponents. The dude gets to anything and everything, and is as mentally tough as they come. He struggled some this fall, but I expect to come back stronger in the spring and dominate if he’s playing this far down in the lineup.

#4 Jerry Jiang, sophomore, UTR=11.78, range #3-5. Like Urken, Jiang surprised last year with a very successful campaign at #4. This fall, he and Wolfe won the ITA doubles draw, and won a round at the ITA Oracle Cup (formerly known as Small College Nationals). He also beat Samson (projected Wesleyan #3-4) at the ITA before falling to Indrakanti (projected Williams #2-3). If he and Wolfe can hold down the #1 doubles spot, and allow Tercek to pair at #2 with a consistent partner, Bowdoin should be favored to take leads on just about everybody.

#5 Gil Roddy, junior, UTR=11.99, range #4-6. Roddy had a decent ITA, beating Cheng (MIT freshman) in the 1st round and losing to Arguello (projected Brandeis #1 and ITA runner-up) 6-4 in the 3rd in the 2nd round. He sustained a surprising 0&1 loss to Nathan Niemiec (Tufts freshman) in the 1st round of the Bates tournament, but after going close to undefeated his freshman year, and remaining rock solid his sophomore year, I have no doubt that Gil will continue to win big matches for Bowdoin down towards the bottom of the lineup.

#6 contenders: Luke Carstens (sophomore, UTR=11.07), Eliot Rozovsky (freshman, UTR=11.32). I think McGrory is more likely to compete for a doubles spot, and both Patel and Cuervo are a year away. The most likely guys here are Eliot Rozovsky, the freshman from Brookline, MA, and Luke Carstens, a former 4-star who had a strong start to his sophomore campaign. Carsten took down Ko and Gea (MIT) in the back draw of the MIT tournament while pushing Alex Taylor (projected Williams #2-3) to 3 sets in the main draw. He also made the finals of his flight at the Wallach. Rozovsky has the most impressive win, taking down Michael Liu (projected Wesleyan #2) at the fall ITA, and he is Bowdoin’s highest rated recruit this year.

Schedule Analysis: http://athletics.bowdoin.edu/sports/mten/2016-17/schedule

Bowdoin’s season won’t start until their spring break trip to Cali in mid March. They have scheduled mostly teams they should run through (Chapman, Trinity CT, Denison), and if they can escape a potentially tricky match against Redlands in the desert, should come out of Cali unscathed. WAIT! What about the Stag Hen? Well, it’s not actually on Bowdoin’s printed schedule, but I believe they should be playing Whitman in the 1st round, and then have a 2nd round match against PP/Case. Assuming they get by Whitman, that 2nd round match will be Bowdoin’s biggest match to date. If they win that, they’ll take on the winner of the other 1/2 of the draw, which is likely CMS or Wash U. If Bowdoin rolls through this tournament the way they did last year (they didn’t play a match closer than 7-2), they will hopefully convince some of my fellow bloggers that they deserve to be moved up in the power rankings.

Once they return from Cali, Bowdoin gets some regional, non-conference action with Brandeis and MIT before starting their NESCAC schedule. They should have no issue with Deis or Tech, but coming back to indoors after 2 weeks in Cali could be tricky. Speaking of tricky, how would you like to play at Amherst, vs Midd, at Williams, and vs Wesleyan over the final four weeks of the season? Each weekend will present a different challenge, but as of now the Polar Bears will be favored in all of those matches. They will need to rely on their experience to get the job done against the talented newcomers and young guns on each of those other 4 NESCAC contenders.

Keys to Success:

1. Leadership. The departures of Trinka and Savage will hurt in more ways just on the court. These two guys are more than partially responsible for the team’s dedication and commitment to development, especially given what they endured their freshmen year. This year’s Bowdoin team has no seniors. That’s not no seniors in the starting lineup, that’s no seniors listed on the entire roster. With 5/6 starting singles players returning from a national championship squad, it’s not like Bowdoin is hurting for talent, but I’m very curious to see which of the juniors steps up and takes control. Even though he’s diminutive compared to his junior-year counterparts, my money’s on Mr. Wolfe.
2. Doubles. Historically doubles has been Bowdoin’s Achilles heel, but last year the Polar Bears had a fantastic doubles season, until the NCAA tournament. As you all know, they overcame a 3-0 deficit against Hopkins in the quarters and a 2-1 deficit against Emory in the semis. While they were favored against Hopkins, they were playing for their first-ever semifinal berth and were gigantic underdogs against Emory. This year, they have the target on their backs, and nobody will relax after taking a doubles lead.

Season Prediction:
As I said way back in the intro, I see Bowdoin being similar to its 2016 version. Not a ton of mistakes, lots of fight, and strong (but not invincible) at every single spot. I do see them losing regular season matches this year (that’s right, plural), but think they go into NCAAs as a #1 seed, break the NCAA title hangover curse, and make a second-consecutive final-four.