Welcome to the second of our NCAA Regional Previews, boys and girls. This evening, D3RegAS and I are joining forces to bring you a look at the regional being played in Brunswick, Maine, where the No. 4 overall seeded Bowdoin Polar Bears are looking to begin the defense of their National Championship. The Guru pointed out the other day that NONE of the past seven defending champs have made the semifinals the following year. However, it’s not like all seven teams even made it out of their Regional pods. UCSC in 2010 and Williams in 2014 both failed to advance past the Sweet-16, while the other five defending champs fell in the quarters. A couple of the other writers are already chomping at the bit for a potential Wash U “upset” win over Bowdoin, but in order to set up that juicy hypothetical quarterfinal, the champs must first get through MIT, Stevens, Nichols, and UMass-Boston.
Bowdoin
Odds of making the quarterfinals: 92%
Power 6 Rating (Or team UTR): 74.82
How they got here: Bowdoin won the NESCAC tournament, avenging losses to Bates, Wesleyan and Middlebury along the way. The earned the conference’s Pool-A bid for the first time since 2008 and only the 2nd time in program history.
Why they’ll win: While their UTR is only slightly higher than MIT’s, Bowdoin beat the Engineers 7-2 back when they were struggling. The defending champs are playing their best tennis of the season right now, and that should make other teams quake. The Polar Bears’ depth is significantly stronger than either of their main challengers in this region, and almost their entire lineup (with the exception of Patel) has NCAA experience. Not the NCAA experience where they made the tournament and played one big match, but the NCAA experience of winning a friggin fraggin national title and overcoming two doubles leads (including a sweep) along the way. This team is good, they know how to win, and they are the overwhelming favorite to advance out of the region.
How they can be beaten: Tough to shift gears after that strong of a stance, but Bowdoin does have a couple of weaknesses. The first is their doubles. Their success last year started with doubles, as until last year the Polar Bears were known for the mediocre doubles. This year they have regressed a bit, and that makes the doubles a vulnerable spot. They will still be favored at all three spots against any team the play in this region, but a doubles deficit against a team with strong singles like MIT could make for an interesting Sweet 16 match, something in which the champs have zero interest.
Player to watch: Jerry Jiang. The sophomore struggled a little bit this year while trying to build off of his extremely successful freshman campaign. However, Jiang was lights out at NESCACs, winning all three of his doubles matches with Kyle Wolfe and taking down the Bates and Midd #4’s for an undefeated weekend. This is the Jiang we were expecting to see in 2017, and if he has stepped his game up, he will complete what should be a nightmare of the middle of the lineup for Bowdoin. Jiang also lost to Sean Ko when Bowdoin played MIT last time, so he will no doubt be looking for a little vengeance in a hypothetical Sweet 16 rematch.
MIT
Odds of making the quarterfinals: 6%
Power 6 Rating (Or team UTR): 72.76
How they got here: MIT won the NEWMAC, beating Babson 5-0 in the finals, to claim the school’s 19th consecutive league title. The conference has not received an automatic bid for nearly that long, as MIT used to receive invitations to NCAAs through Pool-B, but year in and year out you can expect the Engineers to be playing in May.
How they could win: Just look at that Power 6! They are the 2nd highest Power 6 of any #2 seed (BARELY behind Williams), and people have been talking about their singles talent all year long. In fact, it wasn’t that long ago that more than one contributor to the Blog was high enough on MIT to consider them likely to make the Quarters. Barr, Cauneac, Cheng, Ko, Go, Gea/Lilley is a very formidable singles lineup, and theoretically should have no weak spots. Yes, they lost to Bowdoin 7-2 last month, but if you take a closer look at that box score, you see that Bowdoin won superbreakers at #1 and #6, meaning that match was VERY close to being 5-4. If MIT can somehow take a doubles lead, they should be able to hang with the Polar Bears at most spots (with the exception of #5).
Why they will be beaten: Neither #2 nor #3 doubles was very close against Bowdoin last time, with MIT dropping both matches 8-2, and they won a breaker 10-8 to get their only doubles point. In addition, while MIT can absolutely hang with Bowdoin in singles, Bowdoin will be favored at #2-#6, and the top spot of Tercek vs. Barr is probably a toss up (and one that involves two NCAA Wild Cards!). That’s a lot of upsets that have to happen for MIT to even split singles, let alone overcome the doubles deficit they will probably face. MIT is a very talented team, who is still likely at least a year (and top recruiting class) away from being able to really contend for a quarterfinal. They are certainly favorites against a Stevens team on a down year, but if they overlook the Ducks they could be in for a scare.
Player to watch: Victor Cheng. Cheng had an incredible start to his freshman spring, rattling off 10 consecutive wins including wins over Wesleyan, Amherst, Bates, and a couple of D1 schools. However, when MIT played Bowdoin last month Kyle Wolfe beat the freshman 2&0. That scoreline will need to change if MIT is going to beat Bowdoin. In addition Cheng has been a consistent doubles contributor, playing mostly #2 and #3 with Sean Ko. The duo lost 8-2 to Bowdoin’s #3 pairing last time, a surprisingly lopsided result given the talent between the MIT duo. The Engineers will need their freshman to step up this weekend, or they could be facing a steeply uphill battle against the Polar Bears.
Stevens
Odds of making the quarterfinals: 1%
Power 6 Rating (Or team UTR): 65.59
How they got here: Stevens cruised through a weak Empire 8 conference to lock in an automatic bid to NCAAs for the 8th straight season. The Ducks have had a rough time this year going 12-13 this season and losing four different matches 4-5. This can mentally take a toll on a team and we will see how much it has this weekend.
How they could win: Realistically the Ducks aren’t going to win, but let’s just have some fun here. MIT is a tank or tree type team, so hypothetically they could come out flat against the Ducks, get swept in doubles and fall at a couple of the deeper spots in singles. Stevens should have a chip on their shoulder since losing to MIT last year up and could take advantage of this opportunity. My only argument for Stevens beating Bowdoin is that Bates did a couple of weeks ago. That is all. (NE NOTE: Bates and Stevens are not the same)
Why they will be beaten: Stevens just isn’t the same team they have been the past few seasons. Unfortunately this year they don’t seem to have the talent to keep up with the other top teams. As you can see with their Power 6 UTR, they are almost 10 points behind Bowdoin and 7 behind MIT. That’s a lot. The lack of talent as well as lack of doubles prowess has proven fatal for the Ducks this season and this is why they will also lose in the tournament.
Player to watch: Charles Drake has been reinserted into the Ducks lineup after missing a vast majority of the season but hasn’t been the caliber of player that he was the past few seasons. If Stevens want to pull off any kind of upset they will need Drake to find some of his former magic and pull out a W in the trenches of the lineup.
Nichols/UMass-Boston
Odds of making the quarterfinals: <1%
Power 6 Rating (Or team UTR): 60 (Nichols) & 44 (UMB)
How they got here: They won both won their respective conferences and have ended up in a region relatively close to where their respective schools are located. The Nichols Bison won the Commonwealth Coast Conference for the 6th straight year, and are having a good season going 18-3 against some fairly mediocre teams. Meanwhile, the UMass Boston Beacons haven’t been quite as successful bringing in a record of 10-7, but still managed to win the Little East Conference for the third time in program history.
How this affects your bracket picks: When filling out your bracket, take note of the drastically different UTR Power 6’s of these two teams. This isn’t quite March Madness where it’s almost guaranteed that a 15 seed upsets a 2 seed, this is Division 3 tennis and the numbers don’t normally lie. Go with your gut, but I highly suggest you pick the team with the rating 16 points higher than the other team…
Player to watch: Blake Norton of Nichols has had quite the year at 1 singles posting a 15-3 singles record. With a UTR of 10.88, he will hypothetically be outmatched against the 12.28 rated Tercek, but look for the sophomore to push the big man from Bowdoin in the potential second round matchup.
Simple and straight forward, nice to have an article though.
MIT clinches at 5-1 against Stevens, MIT falls 5-0 to Bowdoin.
If Stevens get a doubles point, they stay alive for a little. At the top of the lineup though, MIT has too much firepower for the NJ Engineers.
The first time MIT played Bowdoin, MIT got lucky with the first doubles win. If this match was played to completion, I do believe it would be 7-2 or 8-1, but to decision..? Im calling the quick sweep and singles wins at 3 and 5.