2017 NCAA QUARTERFINALS BY THE NUMBERS

2017 NCAA QUARTERFINALS BY THE NUMBERS

Happy NCAA-off week, boys and girls. While the Blog has been very busy with it’s traditional NCAA coverage, we thought we would mix it up a couple of times this week as well. Don’t worry, you will be getting all the standard match-by-match previews, but first I wanted to throw together a few different ways of looking at the eight quarterfinalists. If you have any more ideas as to what metrics you would like used, feel free to leave your suggestions (and certainly feel free to do the grunt work too) in the comments section. We’ll start off with rankings from a variety of systems, before moving onto more exciting things. For all those of you worrying that this constitutes as the annual historical number article, don’t you fret. The Guru will be taking a moment’s respite from his Recruiting Hub grind to bring you a historical look at this year’s crop of quarterfinalists.

ITA Ranking (as of 4/27)

#1 Middlebury

#2 Emory

#3 CMS

#4 Wash U

#5 Wesleyan

#7 Bowdoin

#10 Williams

#21 Gustavus

Analysis Blurb: This is pre-NESCACs and pre-NCAA Regionals, so don’t put too much stock into it. Midd was still ahead of Emory and CMS due to having beaten both. They likely would have fallen below both after losing to Bowdoin in the NESCAC tournament finals.

Blog Power Ranking (as of 5/4)

#1 Emory

#2 CMS

#3 Middlebury

#4 Wesleyan

#6 Wash U

#8 Bowdoin

#9 Williams

#21 Gustavus

Analysis Blurb: This is also pre-NESCACs and pre-NCAA Regionals. My personal post NESCACs/pre-NCAA power rankings would have been Emory, CMS, Midd, Bowdoin, Wesleyan, Wash U, Amherst, Chicago, Williams……………..Gustavus. However, you could make a pretty convincing argument for just about any team to be sitting between #4 and #7, and it didn’t get that much easier at the top.

Slam Tennis Rating (as of 5/15)

#1 Emory (81.7)

#2 CMS (81.5)

#3 Middlebury (81.4)

#4 Wash U (80.9)

#5 Bowdoin (80.3)

#6 Wesleyan (80.1)

#9 Williams (78.8)

#29 Gustavus (72.9)

Analysis Blurb: These rankings are updated every Tuesday, and so they reflect all the tennis that has been played so far this year. Slam still has Williams behind Amherst, despite beating them twice in the span of a week, but both teams appear to clearly be in the top-10. Even after beating Chicago, Gustavus is still sitting all the way down at #29, while the Maroons dropped down two spots to #7. I think the loss to Mary Hardin Baylor is weighing too much on their algorithm, but my guess is if you discounted that result GAC would shoot up about another 8-12 spots.

UTR Power 6

CMS (77.34)

Emory (76.74)

Middlebury (76.60)

Bowdoin (74.76)

Wesleyan (74.73)

Wash U (73.99)

Williams (73.47)

Gustavus (71.35)

Analysis Blurb: The UTRs are about what you’d expect when eyeballing the quarterfinalists. We’ve been saying all year long that there is a top tier of title contenders which consists of CMS, Emory and Midd, and the UTR Power 6’s reflect that. The #4-7 ranked teams above are all very closer as well, which makes sense given that Bowdoin and Wesleyan have split their matches this year, and that Wes beat Williams 6-3 in Middletown, while Bowdoin won 5-4 in Williamstown. Gustavus is the odd team out here according to the UTR, which should surprise nobody.

Average number of TRN stars per starter

CMS: 32 stars/8 starters = 4 star average

Wash U: 28 stars/7 starters = 4 star average

Williams: 23 stars/6 starters = 3.75 star average

Bowdoin: 22 stars/6 starters = 3.67 star average

Emory: 29 stars/8 starters = 3.625 star average

Middlebury: 17 stars/5 starters = 3.4 star average

Wesleyan: 18 stars/6 starters = 3 star average

Gustavus: 8 stars/5 starters= 1.6 star average

Analysis Blurb: There is only one 5-star player on any of these teams (Parodi for CMS), which just goes to show exactly how important development is when it comes to winning a national title. I was a bit surprised that Wash U’s average was so high, but all seven of their starters were 4 stars so it’s not the most difficult math equation to solve. I was a little surprised to see Emory and Middlebury so low on this list given their successes over recent years. Middlebury does have a couple of international players (next category), but they play #3 (and #2 dubs) and #5 singles, so it’s not like we’re talking about a blue chip guy from Mongolia or something. Finally, Gustavus is again below the rest of the pack. Like Midd, GAC has a couple of international players, most notably their #1 singles player, which would deflate their star average, but it’s also important to note that even if Alhouni was labeled as a 4-star player, they would still be AN AVERAGE OF ONE FULL STAR below any other team on this list!

Number of international players in the starting lineup

Gustavus: 2

Middlebury: 2

Wesleyan: 2

Emory: 1

Wash U: 1

Bowdoin: 0

CMS: 0

Williams: 0

Analysis Blurb: Nothing too out of the ordinary here. Gustavus is the only team to have an international player play above #3 in the singles lineup, so the “star” ratings shouldn’t be affected TOO much by international juniors not receiving star ranks.

Number of seniors in the starting lineup

CMS: 4

Emory: 2

Middlebury: 2

Wash U: 2

Wesleyan: 2

Williams: 1

Gustavus: 1

Bowdoin: 0

Analysis Blurb: CMS has double the amount of starting seniors of any other team, while at the other end Bowdoin is the only team without a starting senior. We all know just how important experience is when it comes to big matches, however, when you get to this stage NCAA experience can be an even better predictor of success. Luckily we’ll get to that later on in the article. What this means to me is, watch out for CMS now, but also look out for Bowdoin/GAC/Williams next year who should come back even stronger.

Number of freshmen in the starting lineup

CMS: 4

Wash U: 2

Bowdoin: 1

Gustavus: 1

Wesleyan: 1

Williams: 1

Emory: 0

Middlebury: 0

Analysis Blurb: WHAT?! CMS also has twice as many starting freshman as any other team in the tournament? With the recent shifting of the Stag’s doubles lineup, CMS is now starting Parodi, Park, Berber, and Williams, four freshman in addition to their four seniors. In fact, the only starting Stag who is neither a freshman nor a senior is Julian Gordy (sophomore). Freshmen are known to tighten up in tough matches, but we’ve seen Parodi and Park come up with the goods all year long in tight matches, and the other freshmen can hopefully ride out their nerves through an adrenaline-filled doubles pro-set. Similarly, Wash U is the only other team with more than one starting freshman, but both Kroot and Neves and been exceptional this year in singles. The main question that faces both teams is, now that they have left the friendly confines of their home courts, will those freshman be overtaken by the moment, or rise to the occasion.

Number of years of NCAA experience in the starting lineup

Wash U: 11

Emory: 10

Bowdoin: 8

CMS: 7

Gustavus: 7

Middlebury: 5

Williams: 1

Wesleyan: 0

Analysis Blurb: As promised, here are the eight teams listed by combined number of years of NCAA starting experience. Playing either singles or doubles in a past year of TEAM NCAAs qualifies you here (but playing both singles and doubles in the same year only counts as one year of experience). Unsurprisingly, Wash U and Emory lead the pack, as they have both made the tournament and the NCAA Quarterfinals for approximately 791 consecutive years. Gustavus and CMS are tied for 4th with seven years apiece. GAC isn’t surprising as they are perennial favorites to win the MIAC and make the tournament, but CMS is surprisingly low due to the recent major turnover in their lineup. Seniors like Macey and Brenner, while they have been on NCAA teams have not contributed all that much in years past. Bowdoin at eight is a little high given CMS is only at seven, but they are returning five guys from their NCAA title run, so that takes care of most of that. Midd at five is a little low, but they have the same “problem” as CMS, where a junior like Van der Geest or a senior like Jackson has not really done much at NCAAs in years past. Finally, Williams and Wesleyan. Shastri is the lone starting Eph from the 2014 team that lost to Midd in the Sweet-16. That’s one more year of NCAA experience than Wesleyan has, as this is the Cards’ 1st ever trip to NCAAs!

Number of years of NCAA Quarterfinal experience in the starting lineup

Wash U: 11

Emory: 10

CMS: 7

Bowdoin: 5

Middlebury: 5

Gustavus: 0

Williams: 0

Wesleyan: 0

Analysis Blurb: Wash U/Emory/CMS/Midd remain the same, as they are the four teams in the 2017 field who have now made the Quarterfinals for four consecutive years. Bowdoin loses three years of experience because Tercek/Wolfe/Roddy’s freshman years do not count as the Polar Bears were bounced in the Sweet 16. Williams loses its lone Shastri year, but the biggest mover here is clearly GAC. The Gusties have made NCAAs for many years in a row, but have not made the Quarters since 2009, so their players (as well as coach Valentini) are in new territory.