Happy Thursday, boys and girls, and welcome to our second to last #IndoorsWeek hype article. Today I’ll be looking at some of the value (or lack there of) in our DraftKings game. If you haven’t signed up yet, you have just a few hours left, as lineups lock at 8 a.m. on Friday morning. We did this last year and people seemed to like it, so I’m back for round two. The trick to making a good DraftKings lineup is all about finding the value. Paying through the nose for studs is great, but only if you can compliment them with bargain players who will add to your team. After reviewing last year’s teams and scores, D3AS came up with a target threshold. The average team in last year’s contest scored a touch more than 40 points. If you divide that # by 35,000 (the max total roster price), you get .0011489. Multiply that by 1,000 (the score vs price difference) and you’re left with 1.15. If a player reached 1.15x his value, then he was considered a success. For example, if a player is 10k (Jonathan Jemison this year) he would need to score 11.5 points in order to hit the average player’s value threshold. Last year, 31 players fell below that 1.15x threshold, while 25 players scored above it. So, in order for your team to be above average, you would have needed your overall team to exceed 1.15 value. BUT, WE AT THE BLOG ARE NOT SATISFIED WITH AVERAGE. The winning team last year (shoutout to Eileen Hillis) scored 50 points. That would mean an average of 1.43x each player’s value. Keep that stat in mind as we dive into this year’s crop of players. Click here for the complete list of players.
Overvalued stud: Johnny Wu, Wash U, $9,375. Yes, Wu has a great 1st round matchup with Kenyon, but then will likely have to play some combination of David Liu/Nick Chua or Jake Yasgoor, and Aman Manji, or Daniel Levine. He would be an underdog in all of those possible matchups. Even if he were to win all three doubles matches and beat Paolucci in singles, that only totals 9 points, leaving him under a 1x value, let alone the average 1.15x or contest leading 1.43x.
Undervalued stud: Jonathan Jemison, Emory, $10,000. How can the most expensive player in the game be undervalued? Well Jemison is either going to play #2 or #3 doubles with David Omsky, and either way they should be as close to a lock as you can get in doubles. Considering the indoors he had last year, and his probable overmatched competitors at #2 in the first two rounds (Lambeth/Pitts, Zheng, Rajupet), a safe bet is to pencil JJ in for at least 12 points. His final match would be tough, but he will be a favorite in every match he plays.
Stud contrarian play: Jake Yasgoor, Pomona-Pitzer, $8,625. Yaz might not be a popular pick given his weak Indoors performance last year, but Jake only needs to reach 10 points to reach the average threshold. He will be favored to reach that even excluding his 1st round match with Chicago. Jake would match up against Paolucci, and either Mayer/Lambeth or Fojtasek, and would be favored against all of those possibilities. He isn’t playing #1 dubs, which should help his chance of pulling off doubles points in the back draw as well. He also just beat Rosen (Bates) 4&0, which means he must be playing well.
Overvalued two-way(?) player: Andrew Harrington, Emory, $5,875. Harrington was one of if not the most popular plays in last year’s version of the game, but has yet to debut in either singles or doubles this spring. True, the Eagles have only played a handful of matches, but i wouldn’t expect Harrington to be your traditional two-way (singles and doubles) player on an otherwise stacked team.
Undervalued two-way(?) player: Weston Noall, Kenyon, $3,125. The freshman has become a fixture in the Kenyon
lineup. He’s likely going to play #5/6 singles and #2/3 doubles, and you can’t beat that price for a guy who is at least close to locked in as a two-way player. All he has to do is net 4 points to hit not only average value, but come close to the leader value as well. If he wins one singles match and one doubles match, even in the backdraw, those 5 points would put him well over the leader value.
Two-way(?) mid tier contrarian play: Jordan Pitts, Trinity Tx, $6,875. Jordan has been playing above more established guys like Clayton Niess in the Tigers’ lineup, yet he lacks the name recognition to make him a popular play. His price is likely still a little high, but he should have winnable matches in the back draw that would allow him to far exceed his value, even if he loses twice to Emory in their quarterfinal match.
Overvalued specialist: Spencer Simonides, Pomona-Pitzer, $6,750. Just a step down from Pitts, you’ll find the 6-6 senior who made his voice heard on the FREE livestream of last year’s event. He’s a big guy with a powerful game, but has has not been playing in the singles lineup recently for Pomona Pizzeria. Even if he wins all three doubles matches, those 6 points are nowhere near hitting the 1.15x threshold.
Undervalued specialist: David Omsky, Emory, $2,750. Omsky won all three of his doubles matches here last year, and is a great bet to do the same thing this year. He and Jemison are only THE #1 RANKED DOUBLES TEAM IN THE ENTIRE COUNTRY. That in and of itself would be enough, but they are likely going to play either #2 or #3 doubles. That’s insanity. Even if, God forbid, they get beat in one round, Omsky is still racking up 4 points which is STILL HIGHER THAN THE 1.43X LEADER VALUE. Good grief.
Specialist contrarian play: Max Hawkins & Tyler Raclin, Chicago, $2,650 & 2,500. This doubles team has been lighting it up for Chicago of late. However, they are a contrarian play for a couple of reasons. 1) They are not guaranteed a spot. Chicago has a plethora of talent, and one bad match might mean their weekend is over. 2) They are sitting right below Omsky in price. But while Omsky will no doubt be a popular play, Hawkins and Raclin should be scarcely owned, and have a great shot to bring you 4 or 6 points as well.
Overvalued bargain hunter: Kiril Kirkov, CMU, $2,375. Mr. Kirkov is entering the final season of his CMU career. He went 0-3 here last year, albeit while sporting some sort of injury, but he hasn’t really played for CMU yet this spring (one non-DIII match). My guess is the senior is on the outside looking in right now, and while he may have the name recognition that some of you want in a cheaper option, don’t be tempted by that alone.
Undervalued bargain hunter: Phil Gruber, Case Western, $675. Gruber played #2 dubs against Wabash and Rose Hulman (the two best teams Case has played this spring) along with Fojtasek and won both matches handily. Case is known for playing good doubles, and has the fiery home court advantage. They might actually be favored against CMU’s #2 team, and if they lose to CMU then they will get two back draw matches. All Phil needs to do is win one match and he’s already DOUBLED the leader value. If he wins a couple matches, which he very well might, he will likely end up the best value play of the entire weekend.
Bargain Hunter contrarian play: Mark Prettyman, CMU, $2,000. Another freshman who has yet to really make a name for himself, with the perfect opportunity to do so. Prettyman, played as high as #4 singles recently for CMU, above guys like Arora or Wadawani. If he gets that opportunity here, he will only need 1 win to exceed leader value! It is a risky play, which is why it hasn’t been all that popular yet, but the reward might just be worth the risk.
WHY ARE OMSKY ANS JEMISON PLAYING 2 OR 3 DOUBLES?
I’m a tad confused. “Stacking” was my gut reaction, but they…lost yesterday.