2017 Bracketology Issue #2

AS: We promised you a Bracketology from the Guru earlier today and we certainly plan on delivering. With the Pool C debate very much up in the air, there are a couple of brackets that we would like to get to and we will get to them in the below bracketology. Most of the NCAA Bracket field is pretty much set in stone, barring any random conference winners that we do not know about. For example, I hear the Landmark Conference Tournament will be a bloodbath and we will not know the winner of that until it actually happens. Same with the NESCAC, obviously. The Guru will be working through two scenarios below – one with Williams in the tournament and one with CMU. As you saw in my earlier Pool C article, both scenarios are very reasonable and both could happen, so it’s nice to see where the draw would end up if it did. See my Pool C article below, and we’ll let the Guru do his work.
http://www.division3tennis.com/pool-c-update-3-well-sucks/

The Rules
If you want a better understanding of the NCAA Rules, please reference the article below:
http://www.division3tennis.com/ncaa-selection-work/
In that article, it was incorrectly stated that there are 3 Pool B teams this year. There are only 2 this year.

Let’s see the list of teams in the tournament:

Pool A – The Conference Champions (* denotes already qualified)
Allegheny Mountain – Franciscan*
American Southwest – UT-Tyler
Capital Athletic – Christopher Newport*
Centennial – Johns Hopkins
CCIW – Carthage
CUNY – Baruch
Colonial States – Cabrini*
Commonwealth Coast – Nichols
Commonwealth – Messiah
Empire 8 – Stevens
Great Northeast – Ramapo
Freedom – Wilkes
Heartland – Rose Hulman
IIAC – Coe
Landmark – Goucher
Liberty League – Skidmore
Little East – W.Conn
MIAA – Kalamazoo
Midwest – Grinnell
MIAC – Gustavus
NESCAC – Middlebury
NEWMAC – MIT
North Atlantic – Colby-Sawyer
NCAC – Kenyon
Northern Athletics – Edgewood
Northwest – Whitman*
Ohio Athletic – John Caroll
Old Dominion – Washington & Lee
Presidents – Grove City
Skyline – Yeshiva
Southern Athletic – Sewanee*
SCIAC – CMS
SCAC – Trinity TX
UAA – Emory*
USA South – NC Wesleyan*

Williams Scenario:
This scenario includes Williams as the last Pool C spot. This discussion was covered in the Pool C article earlier today and below we will be presenting a bracket in which CMU takes the last Pool C spot.

Pool B
Santa Cruz
TCNJ

Pool C
Bowdoin
Chicago
Wash U
Wesleyan
Amherst
Williams

Bracket
*denotes host site
1. Emory, Sewanee, Christopher Newport, W&L*, NC Wesleyan, Franciscan
2. Middlebury*, Skidmore, TCNJ, Colby-Sawyer, Baruch, Yeshiva
3. CMS*, Whitman, Tyler, Santa Cruz
4. Bowdoin*, MIT, Nichols, Ramapo, Southern Maine
5. Amherst*, Johns Hopkins, Wilkes, Cabrini, Messiah
6. Wesleyan*, Williams, Stevens, Grove City, Goucher
7. Wash U*, Kenyon, Kalamazoo, Carthage, Rose-Hulman, Edgewood
8. Chicago*, Trinity TX, Gustavus, Coe, Grinnell, John Carroll

Williams Scenario Analysis:
This year’s bracket is going to be particularly interesting because of Christopher Newport’s win in the Capital Conference. Looking at the top 8 seeds, Christopher Newport can’t actually go to any of them, so that means a top seed, most likely Emory, will not be hosting. There can definitely be some shifting among teams in the Wash U and Chicago regions, but one of them could luck out with a fairly nice #2 seed. The other thing I will mention is that right now, I think several argument could be made for ordering the #4 – #7 seeds overall, but after this weekend and the NESCAC tournament, we should hopefully get some clarity.

CMU Scenario:
This scenario includes CMU as the last Pool C spot.

Pool B
TCNJ
UC Santa Cruz

Pool C
Bowdoin
Chicago
Amherst
Wash U
Wesleyan
CMU

Bracket
*denotes host site
1. Emory, Sewanee, Christopher Newport, W&L*, NC Wesleyan, Franciscan
2. Middlebury*, Skidmore, TCNJ, Colby-Sawyer, Baruch, Yeshiva
3. CMS*, Whitman, Tyler, Santa Cruz
4. Bowdoin*, MIT, Nichols, Ramapo, Southern Maine
5. Amherst*, Johns Hopkins, Wilkes, Cabrini, Messiah
6. Wesleyan*, Trinity TX, Stevens, Grove City, Goucher
7. Wash U*, Kenyon, Kalamazoo, Carthage, Rose-Hulman, Edgewood
8. Chicago*, Carnegie Mellon, Gustavus, Coe, Grinnell, John Carroll

CMU Scenario Analysis:
CMU now is Chicago’s #2 seed presenting us with a rematch of the UAA 3rd place battle and Trinity flies to CT to take on Wesleyan while all the other regions virtually remain the same.

As always, let us know your thoughts regarding this bracket as well as take your Pool C conversation over to the Pool C article linked in this article. Bracketology has always been a hot topic and this year’s projects to be just as hot hot hot. Take a look at the difference between the two brackets – there could be some major implications depending on who gets picked!

  26 comments for “2017 Bracketology Issue #2

  1. David
    April 27, 2017 at 9:04 am

    The podcast might cover this, but I am curious on your guys’ thoughts on the NCAC tourney this weekend. Do you think the 2 seed fires up Kenyon? Can DePauw get the upset? If so, how does it affect the bracket?

    Thanks

    • D3CentralTennis
      April 27, 2017 at 9:29 am

      I am not sure the two seed will fire up Kenyon simply because they had something to prove even without the top seed given. Kenyon is still the favorite in my eyes, but that doesn’t mean that DePauw or Denison isn’t capable of getting the upset. Kenyon has shown weakness in doubles this season so a sweep is in the realm of possibilities. DePauw swept Kenyon a few years ago only for the Lords to come back and win 5-3. If that were to happen this season, I don’t think Kenyon has the horses to overcome a sweep so it is vital for them to avoid that. Kenyon is the deeper team over both DePauw and Denison so as long as they avoid a 3-0 deficit, I think they would prevail. If DePauw or Denison do win, it doesn’t really affect the bracket all that much as there are a number of regions they could travel to within the 500 mile radius.

  2. Will
    April 27, 2017 at 12:54 am

    Wow I would love to see a 2/3 seed of TCNJ and Stevens as well

  3. April 26, 2017 at 12:42 pm

    I’m not sure why CNU being in changes everybody else’s bracket. Mary Wash is even farther from Emory than CNU.

    • D3AtlanticSouth
      April 26, 2017 at 12:48 pm

      Sonny! The reason is because CNU is more than 500 miles from any of the proposed #1 seeds in the bracket, not just Emory. The NCAA is required to fly anyone above 500 miles away, and they do not like to do this because that means extra costs for them. Therefore, they will limit teams that fly in order to fit the budget – it doesn’t make sense for them to fly CNU when they can just manipulate host sites.

      CNU is more than 500 miles from ANY #1 seed, who usually gets the first bid to host their region. That causes some changes in the bracket. UMW, for example, can travel to schools such as Williams, Wesleyan, and a couple of others I believe. They are less than 500 miles from them.

    • d3tennis
      April 26, 2017 at 12:54 pm

      I didn’t necessarily say it changes everyone else’s bracket. I said it will cause a #1 seed to travel. If Mary Washington qualified for the tournament, they could go to current #1 seeds Wesleyan or Amherst. CNU is too far south to go to those locations. As D3AS explained, I just found it interesting that CNU is more than 500 miles from all #1 seeds whereas that would not be the case if UMW had won the conference.

      • D3West
        April 26, 2017 at 6:40 pm

        Newport’s inclusion in the bracket actually opens up an incredible opportunity for Hopkins if they were to put in a bid to host. The NCAA prioritized minimizing flights over all else (it seems). After that, they seem to prefer to give higher overall seeds hosting privileges. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bracket like:

        1. Emory*, Sewanee, Washington & Lee, NC Wesleyan
        2. Middlebury*, TCNJ, Stevens, Colby-Sawyer, Baruch, Yeshiva
        3. CMS, Trinity*, Whitman, UT-Tyler
        4. Bowdoin*, Skidmore, Nichols, Ramapo, Southern Maine
        5. Amherst*, MIT, Wilkes, Cabrini, Messiah
        6. Wesleyan, Johns Hopkins*, Christopher Newport, Grove City, Goucher, John Carroll
        7. Wash U*, Kenyon, Kalamazoo, Carthage, Rose-Hulman, Edgewood
        8. Chicago*, Carnegie Mellon, Gustavus, Coe, UW-Whitewater, Grinnell

        • Scott
          April 26, 2017 at 10:57 pm

          Where would Franciscan be in this scenario? Big win over Grove City today.

          • D3West
            April 26, 2017 at 11:35 pm

            Same deal. Baltimore

        • Chris
          April 26, 2017 at 11:37 pm

          D3West, where would Franciscan fit into this proposed bracket? I think you left them off!

          • D3West
            April 27, 2017 at 12:01 am

            I apologize. They would also go to Baltimore in my proposed bracket. Lots of balls still up in the air, though, vis-a-vis Williams/CMU and UWW/UCSC, which are huge geographical lynchpins. We also don’t have great knowledge of the conferences without ranked teams, so I’m sure the bracket will continue to evolve as conference championship results roll in. Thanks for keeping us up to date

  4. April 26, 2017 at 12:36 pm

    Yes, this is only CNU’s second NCAA team appearance, and that was a regular-season match vs. Emory. I didn’t realize NN was over 500 miles from Atlanta. … So NO team can go over 500 for a regional?

    • D3CentralTennis
      April 26, 2017 at 12:41 pm

      No team can drive over 500 miles. NCAA would be obligated to fly a team if that was the case and they try (and usually successfully) limit the number of flights to 2 teams per year. With Whitman’s location, they are almost guaranteed to fly and other geography forces Texas and California schools likely flight candidates.

  5. NE kid
    April 25, 2017 at 11:57 pm

    Say tufts makes the Nescac final…enough for a pool c bid? Or repeat of Williams 2015…

    • D3West
      April 26, 2017 at 2:56 am

      It would certainly give the committee something to think about. The loss to Pomona-Pitzer is the real killer in that scenario, but I think they would have a pretty good argument considering that would involve victories over 2 out of Amherst/Midd/Wesleyan/Williams. They would also have to take care of business against Brandeis, of course.

      Side note: if they were to beat Bowdoin this weekend, then make the finals of the NESCAC, I think they get in for sure

  6. Question
    April 25, 2017 at 11:29 pm

    How do you determine which 2 seeds go to which NE host site?

    • d3tennis
      April 26, 2017 at 9:19 am

      I guess. You bring up an excellent point and in the past when I’ve been doing these articles, it’s been one of the hardest things to try to predict. I try to tentatively go by highest ranked #2 at lowest ranked #1 but it doesn’t always work like that. A lot of the teams are so similar geographically, that they can go anywhere.

  7. Brady
    April 25, 2017 at 11:21 pm

    if middlebury doesnt win nescac, will it affect the brackek at all? given that williams doesnt win the confrence

    • D3West
      April 26, 2017 at 2:52 am

      It could potentially affect the overall seedings, and, hence, which #2 seeds go to which region in the Northeast, but I’ll leave the detailed answer to the Guru

      • d3tennis
        April 26, 2017 at 9:26 am

        D3West is correct. There is still definitely potential for some shuffling among the top 8 seeds. Williams could move up with a few big wins and maybe Wesleyan or Bowdoin loses to Tufts in the NESCAC tournament and moves down. It’s too early to tell and there are still some important ‘CAC matches left that can affect seeding.

  8. April 25, 2017 at 11:12 pm

    Christopher Newport has played at Emory when Shulman was a Captain (2011, I think?). Did Emory not want to host?

    • D3 Northeast
      April 25, 2017 at 11:26 pm

      I don’t believe CNU is close enough to Emory in order to fit the 500 mile rule?

    • d3tennis
      April 26, 2017 at 9:29 am

      Sonny – I know you are the CNU expert, but this is not correct. They may have played Emory in the regular season, but not during the NCAA tournament.

      I went back and checked the Captains schedule from every year and the last time they played in the NCAA tournament was 2008. They went to TCNJ to take on Williams that year. They are not allowed to go to Emory per the 500 mile rule, so that means that a #1 seed will have to travel so that CNU can have access to a regional site. The 500 mile rule has nothing to do with the regular season, only NCAA regionals.

  9. d3tennis
    April 25, 2017 at 9:18 pm

    Whitewater is definitely still in play for Pool B. If they beat Coe this weekend, I think they likely qualify. However, if they lose, I think its going to be a judgment call between Cruz and Whitewater. I will update the next issue of bracketology accordingly as we learn more.

  10. D3 Fan
    April 25, 2017 at 9:02 pm

    Is University of Wisconsin – Whitewater out of pool B contention? Or could they still possibly knock out Santa Cruz from pool B

  11. Bratton Boyer
    April 25, 2017 at 8:44 pm

    You have UCSC in both pool B brackets….did something change that rendered UW-W out? I marked my calendar for the Coe/UW-W match this weekend…

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