Happy Wednesday, boys and girls. As you have probably seen, we’re in the midst of our NCAA coverage, which means you’ll be getting eight NCAA Regional Previews over the next couple days. In order to properly put you in the right frame of mind, close your eyes, imagine grey fieldstone buildings, and a winter that just won’t quit. Welcome to Middlebury, Vermont, home of the Panthers, and where the #3 team in the nation will be hosting its NCAA Regional this weekend. Instead of me typing far too much, I’ve decided to break down this preview into a few questions per team. Please remember to sign up for our BRACKET CHALLENGE either tonight or tomorrow morning. The submission deadline is 11 a.m. on Thursday morning, and the winner will earn more than just an interview with me.
Middlebury
Odds of making the quarterfinals: 93%
Power 6 Rating (Or team UTR): 75
How they got here: Middlebury beat Bowdoin to win the NESCAC tournament and the conference’s Pool-A NCAA berth for the second year in a row.
Why they’ll win: They’re one of the three best teams in the bracket, each of their top-3 are arguably the best at that position in the country, their depth has been significantly better than expected, they are a program known for their doubles, their doubles have been better since they flipped their top two teams, and they have the most legendary coach in the history of DIII tennis. Oh, and they beat Skidmore 7-2 when the two teams played a couple weeks ago, and it wasn’t that close.
How they can be beaten: Let’s be very clear here, I really don’t think that’s going to happen in the regional stages of this tournament. However, how Skidmore might hit those 1/20 odds that I’ve give them, is by taking a doubles lead (possible from basically any team on any given day), Leung taking down Farrell (which he’s already done), Koulouris beating Smolyar (given that the two played a 3-setter last time and Smolyar has not fared well in past big matches), and either Derbani or Schlanger has an off day, which they do have from time to time. Now, all of those things to happen simultaneously is very unlikely, but I’m saying’ there’s a chance.
Player to watch: Ari Smolyar, senior. Much has been made about Midd’s top-3, but not enough people are talking about Smolyar. He’s likely going to be (check back tonight) the only #2 player in the NE that makes NCAAs, he’s 11-2 this year and both his losses came in three sets (Hull, CMS #2, and Chen, Wesleyan #1). He plays behind the best player in the country so he doesn’t get all the love that he should, but look for the senior to go out with a bang. He’s struggled in clutch situations before, but I expect nothing but the best from Ari over the next couple weeks. If Midd is going to win a national championship, Smolyar and Campbell (their starting seniors) are going to have to lead them.
Skidmore
Odds of making the quarterfinals: 5%
Power 6 Rating (Or team UTR): 67
How they got here: Skidmore won the Liberty League Championships for the 3rd straight year, earning the Pool-A spot at NCAAs.
Why they’ll win: Skidmore’s top 2 have been excellent for the majority of the season. Koulouris has really taken his game to another level during his sophomore campaign, and he’s a legit #2, with his only losses this season coming to Smolyar and Wolfe (Bowdoin), both in three sets. This team also has NCAA experience. They came mere points from pulling one of the biggest NCAA upsets in recent memory in their match vs Williams in 2014, when Leung lost to Raventos at #6 (look at how the diaper-dandies have grown) after being up a set and a break late in the second set. They have been constantly underrated all year long, and should have a chip on their shoulders as they fit into the “nobody believes in us” category.
How they can be beaten: While Skid’s top-2 guys have been very good, Sanderson (#3) has struggled this year, and while Pickering (#4) and Berkowitz (#6) have played well through conference play, NCAAs bring on a whole new level of nerves and mental struggles. TCNJ will almost certainly need a doubles lead, and then wins at #3, #4, and either #1 or #6. Yes, Leung plays #1 for Skidmore, but Cooper is a very talented player and on the right day he can absolutely upset Kai Yuen.
Player to watch: Kai Yuen Leung, senior. He beat Farrell when Skid made the trip to Vermont a few weeks ago, which was the Panther’s only loss against DIII competition throughout the 2015-2016 season. Over the past two years he has transformed from a #5/6, to a #1/2, to one of the best players in the country. Skidmore will be favored against TCNJ, and the T-Breds beat the Lions 8-1 during the regular season, but they will certainly be underdogs if they face Midd with a quarterfinal spot on the line. They will rely on Leung for 2 points in that match, and without them they don’t stand a chance.
TCNJ
Odds of making the quarterfinals: 1%
Power 6 Rating (Or team UTR): 64
How they got here: TCNJ is one of three Pool-B teams that made the tournament this year. As the number of conferences keeps growing, the number of independent schools keeps dropping. This year, along with TCNJ are UC-Santa Cruz, and UW-Whitewater.
Why they’ll win: The lions will certainly need a herculean effort from their top-3 of Cooper, August, and Sanders to topple Skidmore, but stranger things have happened. A doubles lead certainly would not hurt, but the Lions doubles have been streaky this year. They had leads against Hopkins and NCW, but were down 3-0 against Stevens and Skidmore. A vintage doubles performance, plus the top of the lineup going ballistic will be required if the Lions are to make some NCAA noise.
How they can be beaten: If and when the Lions are beaten, they will be beaten by a better team. Sorry to all Roadrunner fans out there, but I think TCNJ has just a good a chance of winning this region than Ramapo does of upsetting TCNJ in the 1st round. TCNJ will certainly be an underdog against Skidmore, and even more so against Middlebury,
Player to watch: Jack August, junior. Besides having a name that’s straight out of a bad mystery novel, Mr. August has been one of, if not the most consistent point produces all year for the Lions. He was also the only one to win the last time his team played Skidmore (beating Sanderson in a super-breaker). He also plays #1 doubles for the Lions, which is a spot that they will likely have to win if they are going to have a shot at upsetting Skidmore. That’s a tough ask, especially considering Tong/Leung are in the discussion for best doubles team in the region, but with the best damn agent the FBI ever had until he was framed for a crime he didn’t commit, stealing the President’s…rubies, now he work alone, Jack August on the case, nothing’s impossible.
Wilkes/Hunter/Ramapo
Odds of making the quarterfinals: <1%
Power 6 Rating (Or team UTR): 59/57/50
How they got here: No tournament newbies here, and all three teams earned Pool-A bids. Wilkes won the MAC Freedom Championship (8th straight year), Hunter won the CUNYAC (2nd year in a row), and Ramapo won the GNAC (4th year in a row).
How this affects your bracket picks: As you can see above, Wilkes is a slight favorite over Hunter according to UTR. Wilkes went 22-2, but one of their losses was 6-3 to Haverford, which should give some readers an idea of where they stand nationally. Hunter was 12-3, but their most comparable loss is an 8-1 defeat at the hands of Yeshiva in early March. Wilkes also has 3 seniors in their singles lineup. Edge to Wilkes, but this one is not a given.
Player to watch: Max Appello, senior. Wilkes’ #2 man is undefeated in singles play this year, and his only doubles loss came in a tiebreak against Haverford. Appello will look to end his career on a high note when the Colonels take on Hunter this Friday.
Another player to watch from Wilkes is Courtney Murphy who is a 4 star freshman from class of 2013
You are right. Murphy is legit