Location: Amherst, MA
Head Coach: The EXTRAORDINARY Jackie Bagwell, 25th year; she needs 3 more wins to get to 400!
Twitter Handle: @AmherstWTennis
2013 National Ranking: #3
2014 National Ranking: #2
2015 National Ranking: #3
2016 Pre-Season National Ranking: #3
Intro:
I’m going to do a preview of the Amherst Jeffs, one of my favorite teams around. Amherst has finished in the national top 5 for lord knows how long, have been to the Elite Eight 20 of the last 21 years (incredible!), but believe it or not, the last (and only) time they won a national championship was in 1999! They’ve also finished as the national runner up 5 times. Also interesting is that they have won the NESCAC title 9 of the past 12 years. And this is a side but fascinating – an Amherst doubles team has won the NCAA Doubles Championships in 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014!!!!!! So, why aren’t they winning more national championships? What’s happening? Are they peaking too early (NESCACs)? Are they running into bad luck at the Elite 8? Is there too much pressure? What can they do to win another national title? Let’s take a look at their chances for this year.
I must admit, last year was a surprise year for Amherst. They finished a strong 3rd at NCAAs, which they were not expected to do, as their star class of Brewer, Devlin, Newman, and Pangalos had graduated the previous year. That team had finished runner-ups to Gabby Clark and her Emory team (the class of 2014 was absolutely loaded!) 2015 was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Jeffs but perhaps with the reduced expectations, they were able to put together a season they should be pretty proud of. This year, with only the loss of Safi Aly (#3 doubles) due to graduation, and the addition of freshman Kelsey Chen at #3, they should be in the hunt for a national championship. Based PURELY on talent, I’d say there are maybe 5 or 6 teams that can win the national championship – Williams and Emory with a small edge on Amherst, Midd, Pomona, and Bowdoin. Throw in some other factors (leadership, team camaraderie, desire, experience, luck, timing, etc), and there are probably a couple or so more teams that can win it all. This year, not only does Amherst have the talent, but they have some other factors that they can use to get themselves to the podium. They have 2 seniors and 2 juniors in the starting lineup, as well as players with experience on the big stage. While I can’t speak to their team chemistry, I think it would be safe to presume that the team is hungry to win a national team title.
Lineup Analysis:
Let’s take a look at my projected lineups for Coach Bagwell’s Jeffs.
UTR Power6 Rating (the sum of the supposed top 6 players on a team): 52
#1 Singles: Sue Ghosh, senior, 9.15
#2 Singles: Vicki Ip, sophomore, 8.66
Last year it was Ip at #1 and Ghosh at #2. While these two players can probably be interchangeable, I agree with Coach Bagwell that the senior captain Ghosh will probably be better experienced to handle the mental ups and downs of playing at the top spot. For Ip it might be a great confidence builder to get a solid year playing at #2, while trying to avoid the sophomore slump. They are both fiery competitors and while I don’t expect any top players in the Northeast (…well, maybe Eudice) to have a clean record playing against each other, I think they both have the right kind of game to pull off wins against anyone. And that will be the key for Amherst this year. They don’t have to win against everyone; they don’t have to play their best tennis at NESCACs; they will need to do enough to get a #1 seed in the NCAAs in order to avoid the other northeast powerhouses. They will most likely be able to win the quarterfinal round without too much trouble; and here’s where they need to peak, like they have in the NESCACs in the past. Save the two best performances of the year for the national semifinals and national finals. Easy, right? I know, a very tall task, but I know they have it in them because I have seen them have seasons that are all over the place and then all of a sudden they put it together by avenging some regular season losses and building doubles leads…during NESCACs. This year, if they can do what they do, but during the Elite Eight, they are a dangerous team.
#3 Singles: Kelsey Chen, freshman, 9.05
Freshman.
#4 Singles: Jackie Calla, junior, 9.17
Calla, who played mostly at #3 last year, was probably their most reliable competitor. She should be even more of a rock at #4. However, if Chen, the freshman starts struggling, she may have to move up.
#5 Singles: Sarah Monteagudo, senior, 8.55
Monteagudo played mostly at #4 last year, so #5 should be a happy home for her. Her funky game will give most #5 players fits.
#6 Singles: Megan Adamo, junior, 7.59
Adamo is exactly the type of player you want at #6 singles – lots of balls in play. She played mostly at #5 last year, where she saw some mixed results, but moving down a spot coupled with a year of experience should give her more success this year.
Doubles:
Amherst ended the fall with 3 somewhat equal teams in Ip/Chen, Monteagudo/Ghosh, and Sung/Calla. They always do very well on the doubles side of things, so whatever teams they wind up with in the spring, they will have doubles leads in most matches.
Schedule Analysis:
Here’s Amherst’s schedule: http://athletics.amherst.edu/sports/wten/2015-16/schedule
10/3 at #1 Williams 0-9
3/13 v Hardin-Simmons
3/14 at #7 Pomona
3/16 at #4 CMS
3/17 v #21 Vassar
3/18 at Azusa Pacific
3/19 at #18 Redlands
3/27 Colby
4/1-4/3 at Nor’Easter Bowl
4/9 at #9 MIT
4/10 at #8 Bowdoin
4/12 at #30 Trinity
4/16 #1 Williams
4/17 #17 Wesleyan
4/20 #24 Tufts
4/30 #5 Middlebury
5/6-5/8 NESCACs at Bates
Amherst started off the year with a somewhat surprising 0-9 loss at Williams in October. But I’m not paying too much attention to that. First of all, it’s the fall, and secondly, they play each other so many times that sometimes you’re going to get a weird result.
Looking at their spring break schedule in SoCal, it looks like their two main events for the week are at #7 Pomona and #4 CMS. The CMS match will be a rematch of last year’s NCAA 3rd place match, and should be a good match, but I think Amherst will take that one again. The more interesting one is the Pomona matchup. Pomona is so full of freshmen that anything can happen! The other two matches against ranked teams are against a down year #21 Vassar and #18 Redlands. I don’t think either team can match Amherst’s talent level.
Amherst starts off April with the Nor’Easter Bowl, where they haven’t lost a match yet, and that trend should continue this year. The following week, they are on the road for three away matches at #9 MIT, #8 Bowdoin, and #30 Trinity. Last year, both MIT and Trinity were only able to win 1 point against Amherst, so unless they show me differently, I’m going with Amherst for the wins. Bowdoin, however, should be an interesting match, as Amherst took a close 5-4 win last year, AND both teams basically return the same lineup.
Amherst finishes off the last 2 weeks of the regular season at home, as they host #1 Williams, #17 Wesleyan, #24 Tufts, and #5 Middlebury before heading off to Bates for the NESCAC Championships. That’s a tough 4 match stretch. I think Wesleyan and Tufts are both stronger than last year, with the addition of some strong freshmen, but I give Amherst the edge in experience and depth in lineups. With Williams and Middlebury, anything can happen, as was demonstrated last year. In 2015, both Williams and Midd beat Amherst, 8-1, and 5-4 respectively. Amherst was able to avenge the Midd loss (what else but 5-4) in the NESCAC semifinals and against Williams, was *this close* to a doubles sweep before going down 2-5 in the NESCAC Championships. It should be another great year for the NESCAC Championships.
D3NEW’s 3 Keys to Amherst’s Season:
#1. Peak at the Elite Eight. There is no question that Amherst has the talent, leadership, and experience to win it all. They have demonstrated over and over again that they can beat the top competition in the country by being crowned as NESCAC Conference Champions. They need to use that drive to get back to being National Team Champions.
#2. Get Coach Bagwell her 400th career victory! Will most likely happen in sunny SoCal.
#3. Peak at the Elite Eight!!
Over and out,
NEW
How many teams from NESCAC go to the NCAA?
Great question, as this starts the Pool C conversation. Like last year, there are 8 Pool C spots. If we go through the rankings as they are RIGHT NOW, here is the situation:
3 Amherst
5 Middlebury
6 CMU
7 Pomona
8 Bowdoin
13 WashU
15 Chicago
17 Wesleyan
—————-
18 Redlands
20 Case
21 Vassar
23 LaVerne
24 Tufts
By May, there should be some movement but I think AT LEAST 4 NESCAC teams make the NCAA (Williams, Amherst, Midd, Bowdoin). Wesleyan should make it but Tufts stands in the way. Tufts has shown in some of the fall tournaments that they are a team to watch. Looking at their spring schedule, they have plenty of opportunities to climb the rankings (Chicago, Pomona, MIT, Wes, Amherst, Bowdoin, Midd, Williams). So, optimistically, as many as 6 NESCAC teams make the NCAAs.
I totally agree on the importance of the “why” questions, so I’ll turn one on you. Why is Amherst one of your favorite teams around? I’m totally cool with bloggers having favorites, but there are still (hopefully) some facts that lead to the title of favorite.
As for the egg laid in the 0-9 loss to Williams, I don’t think it’s fair to simply dismiss this as weird. There’s no question that it is weird, but we can do better in terms of analysis. I don’t think Amherst had found its best doubles pairings in time for Williams, but if we look to the results from NEWITT at the very end of the fall, it’s pretty fair to say based on results Williams would’ve had a 2-1 lead going into singles. As for the singles, four of the six matches reached UTR’s competitive threshold. Let’s give half to Amherst and half to Williams. (Precise methodology patent pending.) Point is, they’re both pretty decent teams, and that day was objectively speaking Williams’s day. If you saw the match (or plan to see future Herst/Williams matches in the future), I’d love to see a recap.
But why’d you leave out the rest of the fall? Any notable results or comments on results from ITAs, Middlebury Invite, or NEWITT?
Any insights or thoughts as to why they’re not peaking at the dance? A cursory glance at the schedule and I see a total absence of double headers (but a long string of matches for spring break). Maybe they’re just tired?
Without giving too much, Amherst is one of my favorite teams around for 2 reasons:
a. When I’ve watched them play, they are kind of quirky without losing competitiveness, and I like quirky;
b. They play good doubles.
In my mind I dismissed the 0-9 loss to Williams because while Amherst is usually a great doubles-playing team, they quickly lost all three prosets 8-4, 8-3, and 8-2. I’m sure they were pretty disheartened going into singles down 0-3 and in such quick fashion. 3 of the singles matches wound up going the distance and close at the end but none of them went in Amherst’s way. They will play each other at least once in the spring, if not 3 times (regular season, NESCACs, NCAAs).
Yes I did leave out some of the fall results because they are fall results, and it does look to me like the Amherst lineup is almost the same as last year except for the addition of Chen at #3. I would think that that group, coming in a comfortable 3rd at NCAAs last year, have the confidence and desire to aim for a better result and that will take them far.
Yes interesting question regarding why they’re not peaking at the dance. I’m not sure if it’s fatigue or what; last season they had a relatively easy quarterfinal against MIT, then they lost to a Pylypiv-less Williams (was their chance!) in the semifinals, then played a great match against CMS on the third day. It may be a combination of things. I think it’s pretty hard to balance playing with the right amount of emotional energy in the NESCAC tournament, then come right back and play NCAAs for 2 weeks.
Here’s something interesting:
2006 – NESCAC: Amherst; NCAA: Emory
2007 – NESCAC: Amherst; NCAA: W&L
2008 – NESCAC: Amherst; NCAA: Williams
2009 – NESCAC: Amherst; NCAA: Williams
2010 – NESCAC: Amherst; NCAA: Williams
2011 – NESCAC: Williams; NCAA: Williams
2012 – NESCAC: Amherst; NCAA: Williams
2013 – NESCAC: Williams; NCAA: Williams
2014 – NESCAC: Amherst; NCAA: Emory
2015 – NESCAC: Williams; NCAA: Williams
Shouldn’t it still be something to reflect on, rather than dismiss, if Amherst was “disheartened,” as you say, as opposed to being resilient? Are they championship material if they give up when in the beginning things aren’t going their way? I agree with you on the desire for a better NCAA result but not so much on the confidence.
And, out of curiosity, what sort of quirky things do they do? I think they used to do some sort of dance/boogie before Williams matches.
I would not say that Amherst “gave up” when things didn’t go their way. Who knows the truth but I would bet they did not give up. All I’m saying is that we are far from the NCAA championships, and that this team has the talent, experience, and desire to win it all. That doesn’t mean that they won’t go through some bumps in the road as all teams do.
And regarding their quirkiness – I was talking more in the general sense that this team lets their individual personalities come out. Sometimes it’s positive, sometimes it’s not but it’s never boring or stifling.
And, love the use of the UTR lingo – “competitive threshold!”
Amherst had the #1 recruiting class for this year. What did they prove in the Fall? Is it enough to bring them to the next level?
Yes Amherst had the #1 recruiting class according to TRN but those rankings are not only based on quality of recruits but also on quantity of recruits. On most good teams you might have 1 or 2 freshmen playing in the starting lineup, so having 5 solid recruits as opposed to 1 great recruit will boost your TRN recruit ranking, but the effects it will actually have on the team are not 5 times greater. For example, Wesleyan had arguably the best single recruit in Victoria Yu. But since she was the sole recruit, Wesleyan got ranked as having the 8th best recruiting class.
Other than Chen, I’m don’t think the other freshmen were able to prove much. Chen had a good straight set win over Louks from Tufts at the ITA. Louks later went on a tear at the Bowdoin Invitational, defeating Joulia Likhanskaia who is the reigning national runner up. Plus, the returning Amherst players are pretty seasoned and I would be surprised if more than one freshman is able to knock them down, although everyone playing an additional spot down would certainly help even the top out with Williams. But I don’t think they have that person this year.
Will any of the 3 or 4 star freshmen turn #6 into a revolving door?
I think they (and the other 50 people on their roster) very well could, but it’s on them to work hard during the off season and prove themselves to Bagwell. Based on fall results (ITAs, match v Williams, and Midd Invite), it looks like Adamo is the #6. There was no switching around for that last spot.
Chicago with only a puncher’s chance at the title?
Yes, I agree with you that Chicago has some kind of chance because of the talent they have coming in. Based purely on talent alone, they are probably next in the group. But here are my thoughts for why I haven’t talked about them too much yet (this is all from the outside looking in of course):
1. They graduated Megan Tang, who not only played at #2 singles and #1 doubles, but much more importantly, was THE leader of the team. You need strong leadership from the players if you want to win the matches that matter.
2. They had some bad losses last year:
Lost to Case 4-5 (later avenged twice but still)
Lost to DePauw 4-5
Lost to MIT 2-7
Lost to Wash U 3 times with the last one being 1-8
I know they will do better this year but they need to clean some things up and build up some confidence before we talk about national championships.