Skidmore Season Preview
Happy 2016, boys and girls. A new year means a new D3NE, and what better way to try and improve myself than by writing a season preview? I’m shooting to knock a couple season previews out over the next couple weeks so that my transition back to work seems imminently less boring. Today I’ll be taking a look at the best non-NESCAC team in the NE (according to ITA rankings), the Skidmore Thoroughbreds. It will be a battle to keep that title this year, as both Skid and Stevens should be better than in 2014-2015. With the exception of D3West, all the writers have Skidmore right around 24th in the country (D3West has the Thoroughbreds all the way down at 29). Skidmore has made the tournament 8 straight years, and don’t appear to have a legitimate challenger ready to dethrone the kings of the Liberty League. Early matches with RPI and Vassar will give us a very good idea of just how easy another NCAA berth will be, but we’ll get to that. The main thing to know about the boys from Saratoga Springs is that they didn’t graduate anybody, have a stud at the top of the lineup, and could be a dangerous team come the 2nd round of the NCAA tournament.
QUICK FACTS
Coach: Nate Simms, 11th year
Location: Saratoga Springs, NY
Preseason Power Ranking: #24
Preseason ITA Ranking: #24
Preseason ITA Regional Ranking: #8
Twitter Handle: @Skidmenstennis
Key Additions: Travis Leaf (3-star from NY), George Kalamotousakis (shockingly from Greece), and maybe Luke Blackman (2-star from MD)? Blackman is listed on TennisRecruiting.net, but he hasn’t played for Skidmore, isn’t listed on the roster, and (for what it’s worth) I’ve never heard of him
Key Departures: None. Even though guys like Miles Ransom and Alec Hoblitzell should have been seniors last year, for whatever reason they weren’t a part of the Throughbred squad.
Most positive extreme overreaction I’ve heard during the fall: Kai Yuen Leung is a top-5 player in the country. With another year of development for this lineup, Skidmore could be ready to crack the top 5 in the region.
Most negative extreme overreaction I’ve heard during the fall: The region is simply too good for Skidmore. With other “up and comers” like Stevens, Tufts, and Wesleyan looking stronger than Skid, it will be another mediocre finish for Thoroughbreds.
Projected Singles Lineup
Kai Yuen Leung, JR, Range #1-1: In just two short years, Leung has gone from bench player, to a decent bottom of the lineup guy, to Skidmore’s #1, to an All American. ITA has him ranked as the 5th best player in the country, and 2nd best player in the region behind Farrell (Midd #1). And don’t think that because Leung won the Northeast ITA that he didn’t have to beat any good players. He took out Litsky (Vassar #1) and Heinrich (Stevens #1), the two other best players in that draw (in my opinion), and both in straight sets. Side note, that’s only Heinrich’s 5th straight set loss since he became Stevens’ #1 in 2013. At Small College Nationals, Leung fell to Butts, but notched big wins over Deuel (Trinity Tx #1) and Chua (Chicago #1) in the back draw. Leung is very legit, but he will have to be Loutsenko-like (in some ways) and remain a top-20 player in the country in order for Skidmore to have a shot at being a top-15 team once again. Kai is also a great doubles player, and both he and Tong should have a real shot to make NCAAs.
Kit Sanderson, SR, Range #2-3: Kit didn’t have the best fall, but to overlook him would be a mistake. He did suffer losses to Granoff (Brandeis #1), Drake (Stevens middle of the lineup), and Sun (Amherst #6 or bench) this fall, but the first of Skidmore’s three seniors had a fantastic 2014-2015. He was 14-3 in dual matches last year, including wins over Carpenter (ex-Trinity CT #1), Kim (Pomona #2-3), and Shastri (Williams #2-3). He is another very solid doubles guy, and should help some of the younger Thoroughbreds with his leadership. Kit is a big dude, and Skidmore will need him to perform up to size in 2016. The Thoroughbred recipe for success will likely need to include two points from Leung and Sanderson in the singles. That’s a lot of pressure, but Coach Sims’ top guns should be up to the task.
Lucas Pickering, SO, Range #2-6: Here is where the variability really begins. Pickering had an ok freshman year at #4 in 2014-2015, but his up and down nature appears to have crept into the fall of 2015. Lucas pushed Cooper (TCNJ #1) to 3-sets at the ITA, but also has straight set losses to Kogan (Brandeis freshman), and Levitin (Amherst freshman #6 or bench) this fall. He played #1 against Bard, ahead of the rest of the guys listed below, so that’s why he gets my nod over a fellow sophomore in Koulouris. He was also a higher rated recruit (not that it matters much anymore), and Skidmore’s first 4-star since Loutsenko. He has the talent, but I believe that whomever Coach Sims trots out at #3 will likely be outmatched this spring.
Steven Koulouris, SO, Range #3-6: Koulouris and Pickering tend to go hand in hand in my mind, and it would not be a huge surprise to see him play above of his classmate at points throughout this spring. His best results this fall are probably a win over Cary (Tufts #6 or bench) and a 10-8 superbreaker loss to Jackson (Midd #6 or bench). Steven played #3 last year, and didn’t quite get the results he would have liked. Another year and perhaps a spot or two further down in the lineup could pay dividends for the New York native. Both Pickering and Koulouris have been better doubles players this fall, and the duo made the finals of both the Middlebury and Bates Tournaments. They would make a very solid #3 team, if Coach Sims can find a suitable #2 team (I don’t think Epstein and Sanderson is a lasting pairing.) Which brings us to…
Jonah Epstein, SR, Range #5-8: Like Pickering and Koulouris, Epstein hasn’t had an amazing fall. His best results come in doubles with Sanderson, but Skidmore’s second of three seniors will need to do more than that for his swan song. Epstein went 1-4 at #5 against top 30 teams last year, with his lone win coming against Mountifield (ex Midd #6 or bench). Jonah had a fantastic freshman season, but has not quite regained whatever magic he found at that point. Much like Sanderson, he will need to step up if Skidmore is going to stay competitive against top-20 teams.
Max Swerdlick, Range #5-8: Like the rest of the Skidmore team, Max had some ups and downs this fall. He didn’t play a ton in 2014-2015, but he did play in some big matches like Trinity Ct, Emory, and Stevens. Losses to Schlanger (Midd #5, 6, or bench), Grimes (RPI #1-2) and Coran (Tufts freshman), were all expected this fall, and Swerdlick earned a couple good wins in order to get to those matchups. I think that Max has a leg up on Berkowitz and Leaf for the #6 spot, but I also expect Coach Sims to test out his options especially early in the year.
Ted Berkowitz, Range #5-9: Speaking of options, Teddy Berkowitz is probably the next man up if Epstein or Swerdlick aren’t up to snuff. Ted had a good Middlebury tournament, making it all the way to the finals of the D-Flight, but simmered (pronounced zimmahd) down afterwards. Berkowitz also played a lot of the bottom of the lineup last spring, ranging from #4 to #6 with mixed results. He has the experience edge on the freshmen below, but that will only get him so far on a team looking to do what it can to win now.
Nick Tong, Range #6-11: Tong is one of the most underrated doubles guys in the region. He’s pint-sized, but packs a punch of a net game, and gets to everything when he’s closing. A big-ish forehand with nasty hands make Tong the ideal doubles specialist. That being said, he has played some singles in the past, and pushed Ordway (Bates #5-6) to a super earlier this fall. For now, he’s a doubles guy, but I’m sure Coach Simms would consider playing his senior at #6 in a match where that spot needed to be won.
Travis Leaf/George Kalamotousakis, Range #6-11: The new duo of Thoroughbreds is linked together because we really don’t have too much idea about either of them yet. Skidmore didn’t graduate any players last spring, so cracking the lineup becomes that much more difficult. Leaf played above the other two in Skidmore’s dual match against Bard, but he still played behind almost everybody listed ahead of him. He also took a fairly convincing loss to Glickman (Tufts #6ish) in the 1st round at Middlebury. Georgie K. also lost 1st round at Midd, and played just behind Leaf vs. Bard. Odds are that neither of these two young guns will end up starting this year, but seeing as Skidmore only has 10 guys listed on its roster, they might well be forced into action at some point in the not too distant future.
CHECK OUT SKIDMORE’S SCHEDULE HERE
Schedule Analysis: This has all the elements of a top-20 schedule. The boys in green get their biggest Liberty League matches out of the way early, which has its pros and cons. Neither RPI nor Vassar should be able to challenge this Skidmore team for conference supremacy, and those matches bookends around a matchup with NYU where Skidmore should be heavily favored. The toughest early match for Skidmore should be RPI, because they are the only conference team that can hang in the doubles. Once Skid takes a doubles lead on a Liberty League team, the singles talent should be too much for others to overcome. But RPI can take a doubles lead (they did last year), which is generally the way upsets go down. The T-Breds’ final match before Spring Break is at Middlebury. Leung vs. Farrell could be a fun one, but I don’t think there’s any way Skid can pull of the upset. Midd should be favored at every spot except #1 dubs, and strongly so in at least 6 different spots. If Skid can get 3 points, the Midd match could be a confidence booster, as Skid has once again scheduled an interesting slate of matches on its Cali trip.
Pomona, Cal Lu, and Bowdoin all present very different opportunities for Skidmore. The Thoroughbreds played PP very close last spring, and given all of Pomona’s March matches they will always have off-days. All that being said, I don’t see Skid pulling out that win. Pomona can match the T-Breds’ dubs, and have too much depth once singles rolls around. Cal Lu could be in for a rough season, and a Skidmore win here should assure them a top-30 ranking once again (barring a Liberty League loss). The final Cali match, against Bowdoin, presents a whole new host of challenges. This is a team that Skidmore matches up well with. Bowdoin’s strength is its singles depth, but the Polar Bears have had doubles’ issues in recent years. Skimmer’s recipe would likely be a doubles sweep combined with Leung over Trinka and one other win (probably Sanderson over Tercek). Crazier things have happened, and I think this match will be close, but I think Bowdoin takes it.
After Cali, Skid hosts Amherst and goes to TCNJ and Stevens. The Amherst match, much like the Midd match, should be trouble, but Skid should be able to rebound with a throttling of TCNJ. Finally, we get to Stevens. This match really doesn’t matter for anything but NCAA implication and perhaps a spot or two in the ITA rankings. Both teams should win their conferences, both teams should win a round at the NCAA tournament, but both teams now have a history. The two teams played twice last year, with Stevens coasting to a 7-2 regular season win, and Skid exacting revenge in a 5-4 NCAA 2nd Round thriller. Leung and Sanderson each won a 3rd set (over Heinrich and Foran) in order to clinch the match and advance. 5-4 NCAA losses are one of the few things better for bulletin board material than this blog, and I can assure you that both teams will absolutely get after it on April 10 in Hoboken, NJ.
SEASON PREDICTION: Skidmore finishes up the regular season with the bottom of the Liberty League, and the conference tournament, which will most likely feature either a rematch with Vassar or RPI in the finals. I think Skidmore stays undefeated in Liberty League play once again, and drops not so close matches to Amherst and Midd (nothing too bold so far). I see Skid playing both Pomona and Bowdoin close, but eventually falling to both teams, and maybe I’m just in a bad mood because I’m up so late, but I think Stevens is going to take its revenge for last year’s NCAA loss. That leaves Skid as a #3 seed in either Amherst, Midd, or Bowdoin’s region (I think all 3 teams will be #1 seeds by year’s end). All three teams probably wouldn’t end up hosting (for geographical reasons), but I could easily see a repeat of last year. Skid gets a #3 seed, wins an easy 1st round matchup, and faces off with Stevens once again in either Amherst or Midd’s region. Skid could also travel to Hopkins or Mary Wash, if either ends up hosting, and would likely play one of those two teams. A lot of variability in the NCAA process, but I think the result is the same, Skidmore bows out in the 2nd round of the tournament to a stronger team. Fairly boring prediction, especially for a team that has made some noise in the past two NCAA tournaments (near Williams upset and the Stevens upset), but that’s just the way it is. I know I’ve been slow on the season previews, but I’m trying to get it together. Trinity Ct is on deck. See you in another month or so.