Look at me now, look at me now, I’m writin paperzzzz. (Shoutout to all the Hip Hop fans that get that reference). It’s slow season at work right now and I’m just crunching out Season Previews with the best of em. I’m shifting gears back into Men’s after a very successful Women’s preview earlier. One might even say that I’m doing the job of two people, because I am. Yeah, I get to pay myself on the back this time of year because here’s where I start running this shiiiiiiiiiiiiii. Enough of the D3Northeast reign. Did you know I’ve written more previews than him in the past three days than he has all year? Boom! That’s a towel-whip right there. Now, let’s get to the S.W.A.T Team aka Swarthmore.
Coach: Mike Mullan, 38th Season. Winningest Coach of all time.
Location: Swarthmore, PA
Preseason Ranking: #31
Blog Power Ranking: #28
Twitter Handle: @SwatMensTennis (I have no idea why #SWATTeam isn’t their hashtag)
Overview
First off, let’s get a shoutout to the winningest coach in DIII history, Mike Mullan. This dude is a saint in DIII tennis with a few championships and just a general ability to grind on the coaching circuit. I’ve been blogging for 4 years and I’m already almost burnt out (wink). Swarthmore is a team with a lot of history, but it seems their most recent history only involves that ridiculous upset of CMS after getting swept in doubles. C’mon, you knew I was going to mention it. Swarthmore has gotten an infusion of young talent recently almost out of nowhere and are a team that no 20-30 team really wants to play no a given day. They have that upset potential brewing with a ranking down at #31. Swat hasn’t tasted the NCAA tournament for a long time as they are playing second fiddle to the Hopkins Jays nowadays, and unfortunately it looks like more of the same for them this year as well. However, they do have a shot this year with hard work and some classic Blue Jay slacking, and who knows. The end of the year is very far away. One thing I will point out is that they really didn’t come all too close to any other top 30 team last year other than Stevens, which is a little bit disheartening. 9-0 losses to full Jay squads is something I didn’t want to see when reviewing this team.
Key Additions: Simon Vernier (3-star), Evan Han (2-star)
Key Losses: Harrison Lands (#1 doubles)
Lineup Analysis
#1 John Larkin (Jr.) – Larkin was the first of the Swat young guns (see what I did there) to break onto the national scene as a singles player worth talking about. He hasn’t had a breakthrough win yet, but he’s gone three sets with Heinrich (Stevens) and Heerboth (Kenyon), two players who have made it on the national level. When playing unranked teams, he’s a good bet to win considering his talent level. What I need to see from Larkin is the same challenge I gave to Heinrich of Stevens a couple years ago – prove yourself as a legit #1 singles player. Without strength at the top of the lineup, the Swat bottom guys cannot survive. It’s just the way it is. Larkin is off to a poor start this year with a loss to Perez of Hopkins (projected #3 player), so he may need to watch his back for none other than….
#2 Mark Fallati (So.) – Fallati is a blog favorite, and his play has backed it up as of late. Last year was a deceptively solid season for the new freshman, as he split sets with a ton of good players. That list includes Sam Geier (Kenyon #1), Stratton Gilmore (UMW #2), Ben Hwang (Hopkins #2), and a decently competitive loss to Skyler Butts (you know him). Now, losses are nothing to be proud about, as Fallati knows. Mark needs to get over the hump and actually come up clutch for once to show he can handle the #2 position with ease. This year was a bittersweet start for Mark as he took former #1 player in the nation Abhishek Alla (CMU) to three sets, coming within a couple games of taking him out. As the script has been written in the past, he was taken out in three sets. Will Mark become a big time player this year?
#3 Ari Cepelwicz (So.) – Another sophomore sensation, Cepelwicz has the benefit of playing in a much less pressure packed environment than needed as he is slotted behind Larkin and Fallati. Ari took out strong players like Lunding-Johannson (UMW), Michael Holt (W&L), and was leading Jeremy Dubin at #3 singles before the match was stopped. Cepelwicz got hit with a terrible draw at ITAs as he drew Mike Buxbaum in the first round, inevitably losing. Something must have drained him (or he tanked the back draw) as he lost in the consolation, but I don’t blame him. I never look at consolation results. Cepelwicz needs to take another step forward is Swarthmore is going to even sniff an upset.
#4 Blake Oetting (So.) – Another member of the Swarthmore 2014 recruiting class, Oetting is the least heralded member of the Swat Team. The story of every Swarthmore player is that they are good players, but not good enough to pull the upset. Seriously, look at the results. They beat the unranked players, play close with the mid range players, and lose to the top players. I’m not going to list the people that Oetting took out last year, but just trust me. It’s the same story. Oetting also did not play in this year’s ITA tournament, and one can only hope that he will be back at full strength for the spring season. If not, Swarthmore’s depth will be severely tested.
#5 Simon Vernier (Fr.) – Vernier was the other member of the Garnet to receive a chance to play in the Mary Washington ITA, and won his first round before losing to Kenny Zheng of CMU. I’m unable to learn much about Swarthmore’s most prominent freshman, but I wouldn’t expect him to overtake Oetting unless Oetting is severely injured or just simply not playing well. Vernier is a necessary addition the the Swat lineup if this team is going to compete at the bottom. I don’t expect big things from the freshman, but warm bodies down there are always welcome.
#6 Yosuke Higashi (Jr.) – I put a question mark here because this spot will be up for grabs all year round. Swarthmore’s recent play has relied totally on the top of the lineup and that will not change based on this year’s talent. Swarthmore simply doesn’t have the guys down bottom to create a rock solid bottom of the lineup team. Whether it be Higashi, Thomas Vernier (another one), or someone else, these guys are going to struggle. Higashi has the upper hand as he was put into the A draw in the ITA, but he went out and lost two straight matches. Yeesh.
Doubles – One quick stat to know, Swarthmore did not take the lead in doubles on any of the ranked teams they played last year. I don’t remember the last time they have, honestly. This is the problem with a young team. They need to figure out how to play doubles and play together. They came into the ITA… and won no matches. This is looking to be another tough year in doubles for the Garnet. Larkin and Oetting did not play in doubles as a quick note. Either way, I don’t see this team taking many doubles leads.
Schedule Analysis
Super interesting schedule this year for Swarthmore, as it looks like they will take their Spring Break to SBWW (aka Spring Break WALLA WALLA) for a much watered down tournament out in Whitman. However, before that comes the grudge match that is Stevens vs. Swarthmore. Last year, Stevens rode out a doubles lead and a few 3 set wins to take out the Garnet, and that really defined both team’s seasons. This is a big match for Swarthmore as I’m not a huge believer in Stevens at this time, but they don’t have the doubles to pull this upset. This will probably end up like last year’s result, a 6-3 loss. Swarthmore then goes on their SB trip for a fun Walla Walla stop. They’ll be playing CLU, Lewis & Clark, and Whitman here. Man, that field is way weaker than last year. If Swat comes out of this with 2 wins, they can consider it a success. They better watch out for L&C though because that is an up and coming team.
After a Seattle getaway, Swat comes back to play regional opponents in Bates, UMW, W&L, and Hopkins. Come out of this gauntlet with two wins, and you have yourself a success. Look for Swarthmore to take out the Generals and potentially scare Bates, but I think Hopkins and UMW are out of their reach. Maybe Bates will have one of those Bates days where they could literally lose to anyone. It’s happened before. I think all of these teams are deeper than Swarthmore, so watch for the Garnet to rely heavily on the top 3 players to eek out wins. That’s what you call living on the edge, and the edge is not going to get them two wins. Swarthmore is a team that is building, but is not ready for those major upsets we are looking for from an up and coming team.
D3AtlanticSouth’s 3 Keys to Swarthmore’s Season
- Development!! – This is going to be a bridge year for Swarthmore. Swat is a really young team with no seniors to note, and they have a lot of room to grow into a top 20-25 team if they put their minds to it. What they need is development throughout the year, not only on the court but also off the court. Leaders are some of the most important assets to a team and they need to find a leader in their young core to push their teammates to greater heights. This year should be about 2016-2017, from an objective standpoint.
- Address the Depth – Swarthmore simply struggles at the bottom of the lineup. A strong #5 or #6 player would do wonders for this team as it takes a ton of pressure off the top 3 players (who really aren’t guarantees at all anyways). Team dynamic plays a big part in the team’s success, and if your top guys are drowning under pressure you’re going to get a potentially stressed out team. Swarthmore needs to find a player that can at least hold down those bottom spots to give a breath of life to the team. Will it be the freshman Vernier or someone else?
- Clutch Play – As I mentioned in literally every single player’s analysis, this team has a knack for sticking with top teams before faltering in the end. You know how the underdog always loses the big match until they finally win one? Swarthmore is far from winning one right now. But to get that elephant off their back, they need 3-4 guys to show up big on the same day and pull an upset. Confidence will do a team wonders after a big win.
There you have it. My second preview of the day, one men’s, one women’s. Who runs the world? D3AtlanticSouth. By the way, if you haven’t watched The Big Short, Carol, Joy, and The Revenant yet you should watch all of em. They were all so good. Anyways, Swarthmore is a team on the rise but they need to continue taking steps forward to even be on my radar again. Maybe it’s not this year, but every year counts. Okay, I’m done. ASouth, OUT.
*Cepelewicz