Bates 2015-2016 Season Preview
OVERVIEW
Hello again, boys and girls, and welcome to another NE rambling wall of text, season preview. Today I’m taking a look at the Bates Bobcats, but I feel like we’ve seen this movie before. Bates lost its top player last year, and another guy who was important to the doubles lineup. If we equate Planche to Berg, this is last year all over again. However, last year Bates had Rosen and Schwartz (side-note: what the hell happened to this kid? He’s no longer listed on Bates’ roster) step up big time at the beginning of the year, and this fall they have only really shown one passable recruit in Josh Quijano. Bates only has one senior (Bardan) on its roster this year, and he has never really played in the lineup. Most of the bloggers see Bates in the 20-22 power ranking range to start the year, but D3West has Bates sitting all the way down at #28. In a year where Tufts, Wesleyan, and Bowdoin all appear to be stronger than 2015, Bates will have some serious work to do if the team is to force its way into the top-20 this year and make NESCACs. A lot of that will depend on Quijano, and also on the new top players of Ben Rosen and Fergus Scott. Rosen is a sophomore who was a very good #5, but will now likely be asked to make the jump to #1. Scott is a transfer from Cal Lu who played #2 for the Kingsmen in 2015 but lost a lot of matches. After somewhat promising falls if those two guys can somehow become decent top of the lineup players, then the Bobcats will be able to compete with the 2nd tier of the NESCAC. However, if Bates take a bunch of L’s from its top guys, they are likely looking at another 7th place conference finish, and no shot at the top 20.
QUICK FACTS
Coach: Paul Gastonguay, 20th Season
Location: Lewiston, Maine
Preseason Power Ranking: 22nd
Preseason ITA Ranking: 21st
Preseason ITA Regional Ranking: 7th
Twitter Handle: @BatesTennis. Can be pretty good or pretty bad, depending on who is handling the account that day.
Key Additions: Fergus Scott (TRANSFER: #2 singles and #2 doubles from Cal-Lu), Josh Quijano (3-star from California), Ben Eckardt (2-star from New Jersey), Duane Davis (2-star from New York), Dylan Davis (1-star from New York). I wouldn’t usually mention a kid who is a 1-star and didn’t get any fall playing time, but this could be more twins!!!
Key Departures: Pierre Planche (#1 singles, #1 doubles), Henry Lee (#2 doubles)
Most positive extreme overreaction I’ve heard during the fall: “Bates’ depth will be able to help them compete with the 2nd tier of the NESCAC this year. They always play good doubles, and therefore will always have the opportunity to compete with Tufts, Wesleyan, and even Bowdoin.”
Most negative extreme overreaction I’ve heard during the fall: “Bates doesn’t have a true #1 or even #2. Planche will be tough to replace both in singles and doubles, and Bates can look forward to missing NESCACs for the 2nd straight year. In a conference where the depth and recruiting is improving, Bates remains stagnant.”
Projected Singles Lineup
Ben Rosen, Sophomore, UTR 11.95, Range #1-#3: One of the biggest leaps made in the summer (a fun article for another time), appears to have been made by Ben Rosen. Rosen played #5 for Bates last year, and had a very good year. That being said, I don’t have to tell most of the readers that the difference between playing #5 and #1 is astronomical. However, Rosen’s fall results are encouraging for the Bobcat faithful. He has wins over Leung (Skidmore #1), Traff (projected Trinity #1-2), and Granoff (Brandeis #1). Two of those three guys have made NCAAs in the past, so that’s a pretty good start. On the other hand, his losses to Campbel (projected Midd #3), Smolyar (projected Midd #2), and Trinka (projected Bowdoin #1), show that he still has room to grow. Rosen’s doubles game hasn’t quite caught up to his singles. He played #3 dubs last year, with mediocre results, which continued this fall when partnered with Scott. But Bates fans should remember that Rosen is still just a sophomore, and Bates is known for its doubles, so there will probably be some improvement there at some point.
Fergus Scott, Sophomore?, UTR 10.96, Range #1-#4: The Bates roster says that Fergus is a sophomore, but he has already used two years of eligibility at Cal Lu. Perhaps he will have the unfortunate of running out of eligibility before he can graduate from Bates? Who knows, maybe he pulls a Sprinkel and sits out the next fall season in order to play in his super senior year? All of this is pure poppycock of course, if he can’t hang towards the top of the Bobcat lineup. Fergus went 7-14 at #2 for the Kingsmen in 2015, but 2-3 against NE competition. He beat Mbithi (graduated Trinity Ct #2), and Jacobson (projected Tufts #4/5), and fell to Sanderson (projected Skidmore #2), Cooper (projected Vassar #2), and Arguello (projected Brandeis #2). This fall, Scott lost to Smolyar (projected Midd #2) at the Midd Tournament, and Ben Battle (Tufts projected #4-bench, more to come on that in my next preview). However, there is some good to go with the losses. Scott made the 3rd round of the New England ITA, including a 1&1 thrashing of defending champion Michael Solimano (Amherst projected #2-3). Scott’s doubles game is also pretty good, and he could end up pairing with Ellis atop the Bobcat lineup.
Chris Ellis, Junior, UTR 11.57, Range #1-#4: Like Scott, I think there is a big range of positions that Ellis could end up playing depending on his semester abroad. A good doubles player, and a grinder, Ellis struggled at #2 last year. There are stories about Ellis from his time in the juniors. He has always been an intense player on the court, so if his semester abroad included tennis then he should come back in better shape than most. But I think his style of game is more suited for the middle of the lineup than the top of it. Obviously he has no results from this fall, so it’s tougher to project where he’ll end up, but I doubt he’ll fall down to the bottom of the lineup.
Pat Ordway, Junior, UTR 10.87, Range #3-#6: We’ll see a bit of a drop from the top ½ of the lineup, but Ordway has the game to step up at #4. Ordway’s results are up and down, so I think he fits in better higher up in the lineup than grinding away at #6 like last year. That being said he had the best year of any Bobcat in 2014-2015, winning 10 of his last 11 matches. With a big serve and groundstrokes, Ordway can play with most guys out there. However, his fall results did not live up to last season, including losses to Battle (Tufts #4-bench), Raventos (Williams #1-3), and Ali (Tufts #3-5). The doubles weren’t much better, but Ordway’s firepower means he’s at least a candidate to play at the top of the doubles lineup.
Josh Quijano, Freshman, UTR 11.24 (80% reliability) Range #3-#7: Another big range for a player we know very little about. Quijano is a 3-star recruit from California, and Bates’ best freshman going into the spring season. Quijano’s fall didn’t bring any wins, but a couple of decent close loses. An 11-9 superbreaker loss to Schlanger (Midd #5-7), and a 10-7 superbreaker loss to Wolfe (projected Bowdoin #3). I don’t usually believe in moral victories, but I do think they matter more for a freshman than anybody else. With Ellis and Feldman abroad (I assume Feldman is too?) Quijano played B-Flights for Bates this fall, so Coach Gastonguay certainly sees Josh as a lineup player. Bates will need him to bring some wins at whatever position he ends up if they are to compete with the 2nd tier of the NESCAC.
Brent Feldman, Junior, UTR 10.91 Range #4-8: Feldman had a rough freshman year, but was significantly better during his sophomore campaign. He best win was probably over Savage (projected Bowdoin #4-bench), but he still was 0-5 against teams that finished above Bates in-conference. He has the experience, so he has a clear lineup edge over the majority of the people below him. Even if Schwartz is still playing (more on that to come), Feldman will likely see some lineup time along with Quijano and Ordway. That lineup time is more likely to come in singles, but his abroad time could delay that.
- Josh Leiner, Sophomore, UTR 10.84 (60% reliability) Range: #6-10: Leiner is something of an unknown commodity, as he didn’t get much playing time as a freshman. This fall he lost to Epstein (projected Skidmore #5-bench), and Swerdlick (projected Skidmore #6-bench), which is not encouraging for his lineup hopes. If Schwartz is still on the team, Leiner will slide down to #8 or lower, but for now it seems that he might be the next man up. He has a better shot to start in the doubles lineup than the singles lineup, and could even become a mainstay there.
- Ben Eckardt (UTR 10.50)/Duane Davis/Dylan Davis, freshmen, Range #6-12: The remaining Bates freshmen make this list, purely because nobody seems to know anything about them. The twins made some D-Flight singles or B-Flight doubles in tournaments, but Eckardt was at least C-Flight at Middlebury. That being said, he didn’t play for the rest of the fall. My guess is none of these freshmen make the lineup this spring, but they may be people to watch in the future. Then again, with Bates’ 2016 class, perhaps not.
- Cosmin Bardan, Senior, Range #6-12: Bardan is the Bobcats’ lone senior, which is the majority of the reason why he’s on this list. He hasn’t played singles for a couple years now, and is probably the longest shot on this list, but D3West has taught me to never discount a senior.
- Adam Schwartz???, Sophomore, UTR 10.73, Range #3-Off the team: I don’t want to become D3Central and say this could make or break Bates’ season, but the enigma that is Schwartz continues to mystify. He started last year at #3 for Bates and scored early season wins over Maassen (Projected Pomona-Pitzer #2-4), and Roberts (Projected Wesleyan #3), but his results fell off as the season continued. Schwartz is no longer listed on the Bates roster, and there are rumors that he’s no longer on the team (Bates fans please confirm or deny?) If Schwartz plays, he will likely play top 4, and make the lineup that much stronger.
Schedule Analysis: Bates plays a similar schedule to years past, opening with their February California trip, going down to Mary Washington, and playing some good Northeastern competition. The fact that they don’t play Trinity Ct could hurt them in the end. Just because the Bobcats are a better team on paper doesn’t mean they will leap the Bantams in the regional (or conference) rankings if both teams end up with similar results. Bates starts with Pomona, CMS, and Redlands in the span of four days. A lot of NE teams schedule something like this, but that could be a brutal start. Bates’ best shot for a win is Redlands, and while the Bobcats did upset Pomona early last spring, it should be a tough task to repeat. As long as Bates doesn’t get swept in California, they still will have everything to play for.
Upon their return to Maine there are a couple matches with Babson, MIT, and Middlebury before they travel down south. Babson shouldn’t be an issue, but MIT has given Bates trouble in the past. After MIT Bates starts its conference play with a trip to Middlebury. There is a question right now as to whether or not Frons is on the Midd roster, but I feel pretty confident in saying that Midd won’t need him to win this match. The interesting part of Bates’ schedule is their A-South swing. This has become an annual trip, with up and down results. Last year, Bates lost to NCW, Mary Wash, and Hopkins. This year, they’ve replaced NCW with Swarthmore. Bates should be favored in that match, and Swat is a good matchup for Bates bc they’re strongest at the top and weaker in dubs and at the bottom. Mary Wash should be a good barometer for Bates this year. A win over the Eagles shows a top-20 team, while coming out of Fredericksburg empty (again) would reveal a team more in the 23-30 area.
Next, Bates has a couple of tricky matches against Colby and Brandeis where the Bobcats will certainly be favored. A tough 3-day stretch gives them Bowdoin and Amherst. You all know I’m high on Bowdoin this year, but Bates has actually beaten them the past two years now. A 3rd year in a row would likely be the most improbable. Finally, Bates finishes with the REALLY important matches on its schedule, Wesleyan, Tufts, and Williams. The final two of those three matches will be played on Bates’ home courts, and the Bobcats will need a win in at least one of those three matches if they have any hope of making NESCACs. Speaking of, NESCACs will be held at Bates this year, which would provide an interesting twist to a potential 1st round upset. Unfortunately for all you Bates fans, I don’t think your boys will be participating at that point of the season…
Season Prediction: Although the desert is a tough place to play, I see Bates beating Redlands and coming back from California with something to play for. A tough win over Swat, followed by a 5-4 loss to Mary Wash and a convincing loss to Hopkins will put Bates just about where most people expect them to be. They will get the job done against teams like MIT, Brandeis, and Colby, but fall short in their bid to beat Bowdoin for a third straight year. Losses to Midd and Amherst are certainly expected, bringing us to the end of the regular season. As I said before, Bates will need a win over Wesleyan, Tufts, or Williams if they are to make NESCACs on their home courts. All of these schools have recruited better than Bates in the past couple years, and I think all three will be about the same caliber of team (~13-18 in the country). Bates will come close in at least two of these three matches, possibly taking doubles leads against Wesleyan and/or Tufts, but ultimately come up short in all three matches, finish 7th in the conference, miss out on their home NESCACs, and end the year in the 22-24 range nationally.
It’s Friday night, and the snow is finally hitting us in New England. For all of you that decided to venture out rather than Netflix and Blog and chill, stay warm and safe. For those of you that made the clearly wiser decision, I’ll have a Tufts preview out hopefully before the weekend winds down.