2016 Season Preview: #16 Mary Washington Eagles

D3AtlanticSouth

Out of all the writers, you probably didn’t think that I would be the first one to get out a Season Preview, did you?  Well, here I am, on Thanksgiving Day, giving you a preview of the Mary Washington Eagles.  Now, the Eagles are what we thought they were for the past umpteen years (thanks Coach Dennis Green for that amazing quote), so what does that mean for this year?  One thing I would like to note and tweeted about earlier this week is that Mary Washington needs some funding to be able to go out West for their Spring Break trip.  Tweet is below, with the link attached.  Help them out if you’re a fan of top 15 teams being able to actually play good matches.

Fundraising aside, let’s get to the details of this Virginian DIII team and see what is in store for their season.

Coach: Todd Helbing, 17th season (damn, dude)

Location: Fredericksburg, VA

Preseason Ranking: #16

Twitter Handle: @UMWMens10s and @MaryWashTennis

Overview

When I told the Guru that I was going to be doing Mary Washington for my first preview, he replied with the following statement: “Beat who they are supposed to beat, lose who they are supposed to lose to, and overall be an average team.”  Was this true last year?  Yes, it was.  They beat the likes of Bates, CLU, Depauw, NCW, Stevens, Denison, and W&L.  They lost to Pomona, CMU, Hopkins, Redlands, and finished up the year losing to Trinity TX in the NCAA tournament.  Talk about losing to premier teams and beating the non-premiere ones.  They were able to give Trinity TX a scare in the Round of 16, which was a bit surprising to me as they rode a doubles lead to some potential fireworks.  However, as the Eagles have shown us, there simply wasn’t enough firepower to take out a top team.  All of this is hurt by the fact that Tyler Carey (#1 singles) and Evan Charles (#5 singles, #1 doubles with Carey) both have graduated, leaving the team with two huge spots to fill.  Despite a freshman class of a couple potential players, it’s not looking amazing for the Eagles this year.

Lineup Overview

#1 Brandon Griffin – Going into this year, I expected Brandon Griffin to be a pretty solid #3 or #4 player.  He had made his mark his freshman year at the #6 spot, basically being in every tough match there possibly was, and was pretty successful.  Last year, he played a solid #4-5 where he was a key contributor to a lot of the Eagles wins.  So, why do I have him at #1?  Well, take a look at his ITA results.  The kid has officially risen to the top of the lineup in my eyes.  Griffin made the semifinals of the ITA, which is already impressive.  But, he also took out the following players – David Reed of CNU (#3 seed), Kenny Zheng of CMU (a top #4-5 player), and David Perez of Hopkins (who took out Swat’s #1).  He did this all by losing 1 set in total to those players.  But then, in the semifinals, he went three sets with MVP Buxbaum, who is one of the top #1s in the country.  Talk about results.  I’ve yet to hear about what weapons Griffin has added to his already all-around game, but I am looking forward to seeing him in the spring.

#2 Stratton Gilmore – Gilmore was the only player from Mary Washington selected in the 2016 Fantasy Draft and that is for a reason.  Last year Gilmore slotted in as a strong #3 or a decent #2, notching victories against Parker Wilson (Redlands), Mark Fallati (Swat), Jeremy Dubin (Hopkins), Josh Kim (Pomona), and Michael Holt (W&L).  He did take losses against Heaney-Secord (CMU), Skinner (Trinity TX), Ellis (Bates), among others.  Gilmore is going to need to be even stronger at the #2 spot this year and things could potentially be looking up for this former transfer.  Gilmore is undoubtedly one of the senior captains, and he will be counted on.  His most encouraging result this fall was a close 7-6, 7-5 loss to future champion Abhishek Alla of CMU.  I expect Gilmore to surprise a lot of people in his final year and be an above average #2 player with his experience at the spot as well as that senior status.

#3 David Lunding-Johannson – Senior Captain Lunding-Johannason has a nice ring to it, doesn’t it.  Last year L-J played a ton of #3 singles, and we’re talking about a damn strong year.  He barely lost at #3 and notched really good wins over Duncan (CMU) and Hwang (Hopkins), showing that he could play against the elite teams in the nation.  L-J is a dude that has continued to improve his game throughout the years, adding to his quick and soft hands with a strong ground game that allows him to approach the net whenever possible.  This catches a ton of players off guard (we’re not playing in the pros here) and allows L-J to mix up his styles when necessary.  He’s obviously been an extremely hard worker over the years and I’m excited to check out his senior season.

#4.Matthew Miles (freshman) – Here is where things will start to get tough for the Eagles.  Miles is a two star freshman who actually had the best ITA of any of his freshman class, which doesn’t really bode well for the other two 2-star recruits.  Miles didn’t even have that strong of a result at the ITA, but he did split sets with Swarthmore’s #1 John Larkin (who seems to have taken a step back this year), and that’s enough to get the #4 spot over some of his teammates.  Let’s note that Max Fritsch, who was a three star recruit for the Eagles, wasn’t even in the draw.  Let’s hope that was an injury and not just ineffectiveness on the court.  Miles is my best guess right now to be the #4 guy and this is definitely going to be a weak spot for the Eagles.

#5 Eric Hurwitz – Hurwitz surprised me a little at the #6 spot last year, as I thought the Eagles would barely be 5 deep let alone 6.  He turned it on at the end of the year taking out Kirkov (CMU) and Mayer (TTX), both being really great wins for a guy who I didn’t expect anything of in the beginning of the year.  Hurwitz got a tough draw in this year’s ITA as he drew Buxbaum in the second round, and we can’t really look into a routine loss to one of the best players in the country for a bottom of the lineup player.  Hurwitz needs to take another step forward from last year if he’s going to be a legit #5 and help Mary Wash take down some elite teams.  He may even be the key to the Eagles season.

#6 Who Knows? – I wrote “Who Knows” for this spot last year and I think I will be doing it again this year.  The offseason is important for these Eagles because someone needs to step up and take this spot over.  I expected it to be one of the three star freshmen, but neither of them have been able to do all that much in the ITA.  Hughes (3 star recruit) got smoked by Daniel Levine of CMU in routine fashion and no other player made it past the second round.  This is going to be a weak spot for UMW this year unless someone has a great winter break.

Doubles – Doubles has always been important for the Eagles because they simply are unable to out-talent any of the top 15 teams in singles.  Without a doubles lead, UMW can’t come back in those matches and that has been true for the past 6-8 years.  Unfortunately, UMW had a terrible showing in doubles at the ITA, highlighted by their projected top team of Gilmore/Griffin getting knocked out by an unknown CMU team that has never played before (one being a freshman).  They matched a couple of other random players as well as a seeded team in Cragg/L-J, that lost to an unknown Hopkins team that featured a freshman and a player that has never played in the lineup before.  This does not bode well for the Eagles and this is where they will really miss Tyler Carey and Evan Charles.

The Schedule – Key Matches and More

Mary Washington has basically put together the same schedule as they did last year, as they get to play a couple of teams around their ranking before heading out West.  After that, they take on some Atlantic South powers to end the season and end up at conference championships as always.  Let’s break down the schedule into a few key matches that I think will make or break Mary Washington’s season.

Their first test is the quad (LoveD3Tennis taught me what a quad was and now I know that it means FOUR TEAMS are in a tournament! Thanks, LoveD3Tennis!) that features Stevens, NC Wesleyan, and WASHINGTON COLLEGE.  Jokes aside, the matches against Stevens and NCW are going to be huge.  Mary Wash was able to hold off both last year, but both were really hitting their stride at the end of the year.  Both teams will be coming out for some revenge and UMW is currently ripe for an upset.  Stevens is the team that they really need to watch out for as they basically graduated no one and played the Eagles close last year.  Mark my words, Stevens is going to be the winner of this match.  Against NCW, UMW will be able to take advantage of the bottom of the lineup and eek out a win.

For the rest of the season, UMW sets themselves up with some great opportunities against Pomona, Redlands, CMU, Emory, and Hopkins.  Based on the lineup analysis above, they aren’t going to be winning any of those matches.  The match they probably have the best chance is one of those West Coast matches where the Eagles have historically played decently and staged some upsets.  Overall, I wouldn’t count on it.  UMW then finishes up with their conference schedule where I think they should be all set again this year, as they will almost definitely win their conference for like the billionth time. We’ll see where they are sent for NCAAs, where a Round of 16 exit seems fairly likely.

D3 Atlantic South’s 3 Keys to Mary Washington’s Season

  1. Freshmen – As you can see from the above lineup analysis, the freshmen contributors are going to be vastly important to the Eagles season. Can they get a solid #4 or #5 guy out of any of their freshmen?  It would be a huge boost considering they might only run 4 deep right now, which doesn’t bode well for any top 15 team.  If they get one freshman to contribute to both singles and doubles, I think they can hold their place in the top 20.  If they can get two freshmen to hold their place in singles and doubles, you’re looking at a top 15 team potentially.  What are the chances of this happening?  Not looking good at the very moment.  But the freshmen truly hold the key to the Mary Washington season.
  2. Actually going on Spring Break – Spring Break is muy importante. You get amazing experience out there and get to play a ton of great teams, while also potentially getting indirect victories over a lot of teams.  Mary Washington has historically played really tough on the outdoor courts out West, and right now their Spring Break trip seems to be in jeopardy with funding. UMW has never really pulled too many ASouth upsets, so if they are going to do it, it’s going to be your Pomonas and Redlands of the world that will be UMW’s big win.  Now I don’t think they have the team to do it, but Spring Break experience is unbelievably important.  Don’t forget the team bonding aspect as well.  Intangibles are important, people!
  3. Brandon Griffin, Legit #1? – Looking at some of the teams that UMW plays to stay in the top 20, they will have their work cut out for them at #1.  Stevens features blog favorite Matt Heinrich at the top spot.  NCW features either Brokakkis or Sikh at the top spot.  Even some lesser teams like Wash and Lee have Michael Holt at the top spot.  If Mary Wash is going to fend off upsets, they will need to at least be competitive at the #1 spot.  That’s where Brandon Griffin and his development come in.  Are we going to get the Griffin that went three sets with MVP Buxbaum?  Or will we get the Griffin who ended up at #4 singles last year?  It’s an interesting dilemma because Griffin is basically an unproven talent, and I like that.

Conclusion

Another year, another prediction of the 16-23 range for the Eagles from yours truly.  I just don’t think that UMW has enough firepower this year to hold off every upset bid and get one of their own.  They always have been a team that has been okay with winning their conference championships.  While this is all well and good, I’d get tired of the Round of 16 or earlier exits in NCAAs.  I want to see a team that craves those big wins.  Maybe the rise of Brandon Griffin can jolt this team into an upset-seeking missile.  We shall see.  And with that, ASouth, OUT.

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