Coach: Scott Thielke (21st season)
Location: Gambier, OH
Preseason Rank: 10
Twitter Handle: @Kenyon_Tennis
Overview: I am extremely unmotivated at work today so I figured what better way to get my day going than to talk about D3 tennis. With my list of teams to write about dwindling down to only a few and the fact that I am saving Chicago for last, the Lords of Kenyon College are next on the slate. After being hit extremely hard with some key graduating players (Heerboth, Rosensteel, Huber, Haas, Thrailkill), there are a lot of question marks heading into the spring season for Kenyon. That’s 4 or 5 starters and experience no longer in this lineup. The good news is they had a relatively successful fall season or at least better than last year. The bad news is weak spots will definitely be in their lineup and a tough schedule will make things even more difficult for them. I mentioned in an earlier post that Kenyon may struggle to stay ranked in the top 20. This might be a bit of an overreaction, but the potential is definitely there. One bad loss could send this team on the outside looking in. I don’t think they are quite there yet, but next year could be even more trying for Kenyon. The decline of the central region will absolutely help Kenyon stay relevant, but the gap between the top (Chicago and Wash U) and the rest continues to grow.
Lineup Analysis:
#1 Singles – Sam Geier (Sr.) — The one guy that I am least worried about is Sam Geier. There is no question he will be playing #1 this season as he and Wade Heerboth switched on and off throughout the year last season. Sam was a very good #2 and will be a solid #1. I wouldn’t put him down as a premier playier nationally, but he should fair well against most of the opponents he will go up against. With a huge serve and even bigger forehand, Geier has the weapons to beat anyone. He does have an off day from time to time and as long as that doesn’t occur when his team needs him most, Geier will help carry this team to a few victories.
#2 Singles — Rob Turlington (Sr.) — Turlington is another senior and experienced guy that undoubtedly will play #2 this season. Unfortunately, I don’t see him quite as successful as Geier will be at 1. Playing mostly at #3 last year, Turlington was a surprising bright spot for the Lords. I didn’t expect him to have that great of a season, but he turned it on and was 15-5 overall. Again, I am questioning whether or not he can replicate that kind of result. A cause of concern was his loss to Patrick Farrell at the ITA tourney as Farrell will likely be at #2 for Depauw. Depauw is good enough to put a scare at the NCAC tournament and an AQ bid on the line. Turlington’s spot will be crucial in that match.
#3 Singles – Nick Fiaschetti (Jr.) – Fiaschetti is a blog favorite and someone who makes sure we are on our game. He is also a self-proclaimed smart guy on the court and he uses that advantage to get some quality wins. He was missing from the lineup last season mostly due to injury. As a freshman he saw quite a bit of time on a really solid team anywhere from #4 to #6. I am still a bit divided on what I am expected from Fiaschetti. I think he has the potential to be a really strong player at #3 for Kenyon, but I worry that he could move up to #2 and be a bit in over his head. Fiaschetti did reach the round of 16 at ITAs losing to David Liu of Chicago in a three set battle. Whomever plays #3 should be a decent strength for Kenyon.
#4 Singles – Peter Hazlett (So.) – Here is where the question marks really come up. Hazlett has zero dual match experience from last season and lost in the first round of ITAs to a player from Wabash. The freshman Paolucci who I have slated at #5 has a direct win over Peter from the fall, but I think he will start playing above him and may even stay that way all season. I expect Hazlett to only get better throughout the year as he will develop dual match toughness, but early on when the schedule is the most difficult, I think Hazlett will struggle mightily.
#5 Singles – Nicholas Paolucci (Fr.) — As I have mentioned before, freshman are difficult to talk about because they just haven’t been on the circuit long enough to see play. Paolucci was a relatively high rated 3 star (top 250) which bodes well for his success especially if he plays this low in the lineup. He lost to Jason Haugen from Wash U in two tiebreakers which is a great result even though it was a loss. I thank tennisrecruiting.net as they have a video of him up so I could see his style a bit. He has some quirky ground strokes, but it seems like he can dictate play a bit not by hitting with power, but by placing his shots well. I could see Paolucci climbing up the lineup as the season progresses making it as far as #3, but I would keep him at #5 for the best team success.
#6 Singles – Revolving Door — I could name a number of guys who could feature at the #6 spot. There is a wealth of players who are good enough to play here and have the talent to win against most opponents on the schedule. Although abroad this fall, Mike Roberts and Pete Dakich are two guys who could step in. Tristan Kaye is the most experienced of the bunch, but it looks like he may be a doubles specialist this season. Mike Liu won the backdraw of the ITA main event which is a good performance and Alex Reiger or Max Smith also have the potential to see some playing time.
Doubles — The losses of graduation hurt the Lords in doubles as well, but I think they will be able to replace them a bit better on the doubles side of things and keep doubles as a strong point this season. Geier lost partner and fellow All-American Rosensteel, but he and Tristan Kaye had a strong ITA only losing to Chua and Liu in the semi-finals. Fiaschetti and Paolucci teamed up to make a good run to the semis as well which was a surprise. If this duo can continue to play at a high level, that gives Kenyon two very strong teams at the top. Third doubles will be a question mark, but Roberts has experience and so does Turlington. Like 6 singles, 3rd doubles will likely be a lot of experimenting until they find the right combo to achieve the most success.
Schedule Analysis
http://athletics.kenyon.edu/schedule.aspx?path=mten&
The early season schedule is pretty brutal for Kenyon especially when you consider they don’t have a lot of lineup experience. They are going to get thrown into the fire nonetheless and the weekend when they play Chicago and Whitewater will be really key to how the rest of the season goes. I am not going to pretend like they have a shot to upset Chicago, but Whitewater is one of those matches that could break the Lords season. Because Humphreys could take out Geier and I would give him the slight edge, the rest of the team will feel the pressure to perform. If Whitewater sneaks ahead 2-1 after dubs and Humphreys beats Geier then Kenyon will be on major upset alert. Treis would have a slight edge at #2 and Whitewater would only need to find one more win to get to 5. I will be watching this one very closely.
At indoors, we are still trying to figure out who is seeded where, but I think Kenyon draws Emory in the first round as the 3/6 match-up. I see Kenyon as one of the two weakest teams in the field, but the good news is they have a shot to at least win one match against Case Western in the 7th/8th place round. Yes, Kenyon could beat their second round opponent of either CMU or Pomona which would be a massive win and likely get them 6th. Facing a hungry and desperate Case team on their home courts the last day for 7th place doesn’t sound like something Coach Theilke wants to mess with.
Another tough match up with NC Wesleyan follows and who knows what will happen with that team. All we do know is they sure have one confident and outspoken coach! Stag Hen will be another tournament that the Lords will face top competition and I don’t like their odds all that much there either. The back half of the schedule is pretty light other than a match against Carnegie Mellon. I think the Tartans are stronger and should win.
The NCAC is about as important as it gets as the AQ will get Kenyon in the tourney. Depauw will pose a threat not because they are as strong as Kenyon, but because they are very capable of sweeping doubles and have done so in year’s past. I still think Kenyon will take home the title, but a rocky season could give others confidence to potentially knock them off.
Conclusion
I typically underestimate Kenyon each year and in key matches throughout the year so for continuity sake, I am going to continue to do so again. I don’t particularly like their schedule as it has a lot of dangerous matches that could knock them down a few pegs by year end. As long as Kenyon wins the NCAC and gets one key win, they will stay in the top 20. That key win could be Case, Pomona, or CMU. But the danger lies in the matches against Whitewater, NC Wes, and Depauw. In the end, I expect Kenyon’s season to come down to how they fare against Case. A win against Case will keep them in the top 20 easily. A loss against Case will make them teeter around the 20 ranking as they will have zero wins against teams in the top 20. The Central region really needs Kenyon to outperform once again and I will most definitely be rooting for this team.