2015 Season Previews: #6 (#1 ITA ) Amherst Lord Jeffs

Amherst 2015 Season Preview

We are the champions, WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS, no time for other regions, because the NE has 3 of the last 4 championships, (buh buh) of DIII tennis. Just to get the ball rollin, check out the Patriots Super Bowl montages put together by The Hub http://boston.cbslocal.com/patriots-playoff-montages-from-98-5-the-sports-hub/. It’s been another great sports year in the NE, and we’re gearing up again. As much as I don’t think a NE team will keep the trophy in the region, Amherst is most likely our best shot. After a very solid ITA from Solimano and Revzin, the Jeffs went down South and took down Carnegie Melon and Hopkins in back to back 5-4 victories. Both CMU and JHU are top-10 teams, so these wins are (obviously) huge. To see me continue fawning over Amherst’s trip to the A-South, check out the recap from earlier this fall: http://www.division3tennis.com/amherst-rolls-south-weekend-review/.

The real questions for this year’s defending national champions come from 2014’s departures. Coach Garner was one of the best of the business (even if I did compare him once to Darth Vader in white pants) and he had put together a team that achieved more than any of us thought possible. We all knew Fritz was a beast, but he really turned it on at Claremont for NCAAs last spring. Dale was a lifetime bottom of the lineup guy, who was left off the Jeff’s A-South trip last fall. How he became a dominant #2 I’ll never know. Reindel was a just a little man who was a part of Amherst’s B-team, and with extreme commitment (and a dry season) Justin became the best #6 in the entire country. To have the closest thing to guaranteed points at #5/#6 (Yaraghi/Reindel) is a pretty sweet formula for success. So the only real question lingering in Amherst, Mass is whether or not the Jeffs will respond to Coach Doebler. So far, I’d give that a resounding oh yeah. Let’s get to the facts…

Coach: Todd Doebler, 1^st season

Location: Amherst, MA

Preseason Power Ranking: #6 (This was before their A-South trip)

Regional Ranking: #1

Projected End of Season Power Ranking: #4

Projected Regional Ranking: #1

Twitter Handle: @JeffsTennis

Key Additions: Ben Birkenfeld (3-star, NJ)

Key Departures: Joey Fritz (#1 singles/#1 doubles), Chris Dale (#2 singles/#3 doubles), Justin Reindel (#6 singles/#1 doubles).

Most positive extreme OVERREACTION I’ve heard during the fall: “The fact that Coach Doebler led his guys through CMU and Hopkins shows that not only will Amherst remain the best team in the region, but they also provide the strongest challenge to CMS’ inevitable title.”

Most negative extreme OVERREACTION I’ve heard during the fall: “Coach Garner was the closest thing DIII had to Bill Belichick, and Fritz was his Tom Brady. 2 championships in 4 years, and the two main reasons are no longer with the team. It’s a good think Midd graduated their core as well, because Amherst should be vulnerable this year.”

Reaction 2 Reactions: Usually my compass swings more towards the negative overreaction, but this time I think the positive overreaction is closer to the truth. While obviously Garner and Fritz was the best player/coach combo in 2014, this Amherst team is still really good. Plus, give Dale and Reindel the credit they deserve. They went from forgettable players who helped out here and there, to two of the most vital parts of a national championship team. I don’t know about the 2^nd best team in the country, but after squeaking out two top-8 worthy wins, this Jeffs team shows that it still has what it takes…

Projected Lineup

1. Michael Solimano (Jr), Range #1-1: Normally the jump from #3 to #1 would be an enormous task, but not if your name is Michael Solimano. Soly’s sexy one-handed backhand is a thing of beauty, and he might have the quickest hands in the country. He’s a smart player with the serve and volley play always a factor. Solimano won the ITA this fall without dropping a set, and (paired with Revzin) made the finals of the doubles. As is Amherst’s usual choice, they do not allow their winners to play at Small College Nationals, so that they stay for the important dual matches. Soliamano then split his A-South trip against the stiffest of competition. A routine ho-hum 3&3 win over Alla (CMU #1 who won all of Small College Nationals last year) and a dismantling 4&1 loss at the hands of Buxbaum (Hopkins #1), along with Michael’s ITA result, show that he has earned his top-10 national ranking (which would be higher if he had played at Small College Nationals). I have little doubt that he will remain there throughout the year, and should be considered a (very) early front-runner for NCAAs.
2. Anton Zykov (So), Range #2-3: Zykov’s ankle had the potential to ruin Amherst’s season before the spring had even begun. I know I said it in my intro, but the fact that the Jeffs went to CMU and Hopkins without one of their best players and beat both teams really speaks to how good this Amherst team can be. Anton had a tough 1^st round win over Tercek (Bowdoin #3-5) and then he obliterated Jackson (Midd #6/possible greatest player in the world) in the 2^nd round, before having to retire vs. Chen (Wesleyan #1) in the 3^rd round. Apparently Zykov’s ankle was in pretty bad shape, and it caused him to miss Amherst’s dual matches a few weeks later. Even though his fall was cut short, we know Zykov is a warrior. Look at his NCAAs from last spring, win over Lord (Bowdoin #4), about to split sets with Wagner (Emory #4), straight set win over Skinner (Trinity Tx #3) to clinch the comeback from 0-3 down, and was up a set and in a 2^nd set breaker vs. Butts (CMS #4). Lord, Wagner, Skinner, and Butts, besides a sick law firm, those four guys represent some of the best #4’s in the country, and Zykov didn’t lose to a single one of them. I’m a big believer in Mr. Zykov, and whether he’s playin #2 or #3, I expect big things from him when Amherst needs him most.
3. Aaron Revzin (Jr), Range #2-4: Revzin stepped up big time in Zykov’s absence this fall. Besides making the finals of the doubles at the ITA, Aaron was instrumental in the Jeff’s A-South wins. Rev-O took down Duncan (CMU #3) in 3 sets and Hwang (Hopkins #2/3) in straight sets, giving the Jeffs vital points in each of their 5-4 wins. Playing #2 will be a bit of a stretch for a guy who didn’t play singles AT ALL last year, but given that he played above Yaraghi in the fall I’m keeping him ahead of his fellow junior. What’s more interesting to me are the Jeff’s doubles pairings and where Revzin fits into them. I really thought Solimano and Revzin would just assume the #1 spot after their ITA performance, but Coach Doebler paired Scheiner at #1 with Revzin instead. The pair lost both dual matches, and I would be shocked to see that same team at #1 in March.
4. Andrew Yaraghi (Jr), Range #2-4: Like Humpty Dumpty, Yaraghi had a great fall. He took down Raventos (Williams #3) and Arguello (Brandeis #2/#3) before falling to Frons (Midd #3-5) at the ITA, and then rebounded by taking down Kirkov (CMU #4) and Tanner Brown (Hop #3) in straight sets. Yaraghi had an absolutely amazing freshman year two years ago, and then all I heard about last year was how much he was slumping. Oh wait, what’s that you say? Yaraghi went 18-1 last spring. That’s some slump. Granted, he’s not playing #1 singles which we all thought he would after his freshman year, but being an absolute rock in the middle of a national championship team is pretty damn important. Yaraghi should be one of the best #4’s in the country, and should provide a very consistent point for the Jeffs over the 2015 season.
5. 5-8. Russell Einbinder (Jr)/Andrew Scheiner (Sr)/Andrew Arnaboldi (So)/Ben Fife (Jr): As you all know by now, I’m not going to predict any doubles lineups. With Zykov coming back from an ankle injury, and Fife returning from a semester spent partying abroad the doubles lineup is very up in the air. What’s equally as interesting, and definitely as unpredictable right now, is who Coach Doebler will trot out at the bottom of his lineup. Einbinder and Scheiner have a bit of an experience edge on Arnaboldi, but the sophomore stepped up big time with two necessary wins at #6 singles against teams that D3AS will claim to be amongst the deepest in the country, Hopkins (Walsh) and CMU (Ang). Einbinder and Scheiner lost both of their A-South matches this fall, and realistically whomever plays #5 will probably be the weakest part of the Jeff’s lineup. As always, Fife is a total wild card. The dude went from being basically automatic at #4 his freshman year, to getting basically no playing time his sophomore year, and is now spending Coach Doebler’s 1^st semester away from the team. He certainly has the talent, but he’ll need to make quite a push to get into the starting lineup right away. If D3West were holding my dog hostage, and forcing me to predict a lineup for a match tomorrow, I’d guess Einbinder at 5, and Arnaboldi at 6. However, as we all know, a ton has happened over the offseason and more could happen between now and Amherst’s first match on March 16^th. Speaking of, let’s check out the Jeff’s schedule.

Schedule

https://www.amherst.edu/athletics/teams/fall/tennis-m/schedule

Best Case Scenario: Amherst uses their 47 DI/DII matches to gain valuable experience for all parts of their lineup, and develop their depth. Arnaboldi continues his hot streak from the fall, Fife actually contributes, and Zykov stays healthy. The Jeffs roll through Pomona and Skidmore, and return to the NE in top form. Amherst blanks Colby, and puts upstart Tufts back in their place. The Jeffs take a lead on WashU after dubs and hold it to solidify their top ranking. Amherst walks hard over MIT and Trinity, before fending off a pesky Bowdoin team. The Jeffs get through their Williams/Wesleyan weekend unscathed, before destroying Bates and easing comfortably past Midd. As the #1 seed at NESCACs, Amherst continues their undefeated (vs. DIII) season and wins the tournament. This gives Amherst either the #1 or #2 seed at NCAAs (they should be behind CMS, but given they are ahead of them to start with who knows), and the Jeffs coast to an easy quarterfinal berth, before knocking off CMU again, then a senior-laden Emory team in the semis, and finally a repeat choke job win over CMS in the finals. I’m not saying it’s likely, but it’s definitely in Amherst’s realm of “best case” scenario.

Worst Case Scenario: Tired from their two-a-days, Amherst slips up in California. While their fall wins keep them in the top 8, the loss knocks them from their top perch. The Jeffs barely get by a tougher than expected Tufts team, and are never in contention vs. WashU after the Bears take a doubles lead. Amherst still takes care of Trinity, Wesleyan, and Bates but has a much tougher time with Williams, Bowdoin, and Middlebury. At least one of those teams upsets the Jeffs, and steals the regular season crown. As the #2 seed, Amherst gets upset by another of the top contenders pushing Pool C into absolute chaos. The fall wins still get the Jeffs into the tournament, but as the final Pool-C team. They go to a fellow NE team for NCAA Regionals, and lose in the round-of-16 to a Middlebury or a Williams who is much better than I originally gave them credit for being. Everyone sheds a tear and preys for Coach Garner’s return.

Realistic Scenario/Schedule Analysis: If Coach Doebler is changing the Amherst program, it certainly isn’t through their spring break scheduling. The Jeffs head to Cali in the middle of March and will play 12 matches in 6 days. The one difference in the 2015 schedule, is the lack of DIII opponents. Amherst will play a handful of division three foes over the week, and only two ranked teams (and barely two considering one is Skidmore). Tuesday March 17^th, Amherst will take on Pomona at the same time they take on Earlham. Split-squadding was all fine and good when the roster was 79 deep, but the website only lists 15 this year (only 15, HA!) and the Jeffs are an injury or two away from perhaps being in some trouble? Something tells me their B-team will survive Earlham, and if they’re A-team (minus Zykov) was good enough to take down CMU and JHU then they should be good enough to handle Pomona’s depth. I think Pomona is sneaky good, and will make NCAAs, but won’t be quite good enough here.

After an interesting 1^st weekend home when the Jeffs travel to Harvard and Colby (Solimano vs. Reid could be very interesting) Amherst plays home to Tufts and WashU on back-to-back days. I know people are high on the Jumbos this year, but I just don’t see them being able to overcome a doubles deficit against a team as talented as Amherst (even on their best day). WashU on the other hand, well that’s a totally different story. I think the Bears and the Jeffs are two of the five best teams in the country (along with CMS, Trinity Tx, and Emory) but as of right now I have absolutely no idea who I’d take. It will depends on which team’s weakness has been sorted out by April, Amherst’s depth or WashU’s top. Call me crazy (crazy) but I still don’t trust Putterman against the big dawgs and Solimano certainly qualifies. Also, who knows about Carswell after that dismal fall performance. This match might be one of my top 5 matches of the year.

After the big WashU match, Amherst hosts Trinity, Bowdoin and Williams. Amherst should have no trouble with the Bantams, but Bowdoin and Williams will present a much more difficult challenge. Both the Polar Bears and Ephs will likely still have an outside shot at a Pool C bid, and a win over Amherst would vault them back into serious consideration (if not lock up whichever team was sitting in 3^rd place in the conference). Williams matches up better, they play better doubles and have more experience throughout their lineup. In order for Williams to pull the upset, they’ll need a lead after doubles and a bunch of 3-set matches at the bottom of the lineup. I like Amherst to squeak by Williams and Bowdoin.

The day after Williams, Amherst travels down to Wesleyan before heading home to wrap up their regular season hosting Bates and Middlebury. While Wesleyan is super talented, I don’t think they’re ready to go after the national champs just yet. Bates’ doubles always presents an interesting matchup, but I don’t see them getting a singles point anywhere but maybe #1 (and even there Solimano has to be favored over Planche). In all likelihood, the Amherst/Middlebury match at the end of April will determine the regular season conference champion. Both teams have had similar strengths in recent years, but I think Amherst is stronger at the top this year and that should be enough to make the difference. That sets up Amherst to go into NESCACs as the #1 seed and be in line for a #1 seed (and a decent one at that) come tournament time. If an NE team is coming home with the hardware for the 4^th time in 5 years, I think it’ll be the 1^st repeat since Williams in 2001-2002. Let’s go Jeffs! The rest of the country doesn’t deserve a trophy…