2015 Season Preview: #5 Wash U

Washington University in St. Louis

Coach: Roger Follmer

Location: St. Louis, MO

Preseason ranking: #5

Overview: Wash U is always in the conversation for a national title and this year is no different. They are one of many teams that can end up with the trophy at the end of the year and unlike a few of the other big names (Amherst, Middlebury, etc), they didn’t lose much to graduation as well as added some top freshman to fill a few holes and make them even deeper. The rich get richer right? Wash U has to be in the conversation for national title favorites with the lineup they return considering CMS has yet to deliver the goods. Had it not been for an AWOL John Carswell and Nick Chua from Chicago beating everyone in their lineup (or close to it), their fall would have given any coach some excitement for the things to come when spring time rolls around. Coach Follmer is the best in the business and gets his team ready to go in May. This past season, their streak of final four appearances was broken, but came to an underrated Trinity team that also will be a team to watch this season. For the 2015 season, I look for Wash U to be virtually unbeatable at 4-6 singles and will always be a great doubles team. If the top half of the lineup can pull any weight at all, the Bears of Wash U will be holding the championship in the end.

Lineup Analysis

Key Losses: Tim Noack (4 singles), Jeff Hirsch (3 dubs)

Key Additions: Jason Haugen, Johnny Wu, Shaun Berman (4-star freshmen).

1 Singles: Ross Putterman. Wait…wasn’t I one of the biggest critic’s to Mr. Putterman playing over Carswell at 1 singles last season? Why yes I was! What has swayed my view? Well, after watching Putterman’s fall ITA, he was the class of the tournament. It became clear that whomever won the match-up between him and Chua in the quarters was going to win the Regional. The match did not disappoint as it was a three-set thriller. Chua obviously took him down, but it was one of those things where a freshman didn’t get as high as a seed because he was a freshman so they met in the quarters. Word on the street is Putterman put in the hard work this summer and has flattened out his backhand a bit to make it more of a weapon. In the past, it was a weakness and he heavily relied on his forehand/serve. Those two things are still a big strength, but don’t expect Putterman to shy away from hitting his backhand for a winner this year. As a senior, I expect Ross to step it up and compete with the big boys from any team. Is he a top 5 player in the country? Probably not, but he is a formidable #1 and has the ability to beat anyone he plays. If Carswell does play #1 this year, Putterman will be a lock at 2.

2 Singles: John Carswell. Ah the biggest enigma of the fall, we have Carswell playing 2 singles. Carswell did pretty much everything last season from going undefeated in the regular season, winner of the UAA freshman of the year, and UAA player of the year from the 2 slot nonetheless. There seemed to be no question he was the better of the two top players, but Follmer held steady with his freshman not playing the top spot rule. I think Wash U was probably a better team because of it. A rough post season tourney that included a nasty flu had Carswell falling to Trinity in the team quarters and in the first round of individuals. And then we move on to the fall. I don’t know what the deal was, but Carswell looked less than enthused to be playing tennis at the ITA. He fell in the first round to a player from Baldwin Wallace. I don’t want to take anything away from Peter Harris because he backed it up with a couple of other good wins, but Carswell shouldn’t lose that match. In the backdraw, he lost to Veltman (#2 from Denison) in a super breaker. It seems as if he either was distracted by girls, frats, college life, etc that he didn’t work as hard as he should have this summer. Again, he couldn’t have a better coach in getting him back into form. The only other thing I can see is opponents may have figured him out. His backhand is an extreme liability at the moment with his forehand being as good as anyone’s in Div-3. My scouting report would be he should NEVER see a forehand at anytime. Even if you think you can pull him off wide and then hit an open court winner, he has a nasty squash like shot that will cause you fits. Carswell needs to find his game for the spring if Wash U wants to win a team championship.

3 Singles: Jeremy Bush. Bush started early in the season last year as the 2 singles player, but with the emergence of Carswell, he became a rock solid performer at the three spot. He “arrived” at National Indoors where he went undefeated in both singles and doubles against the best competition. His fall ITA results aren’t of much concern because he lost to teammate Kratky and anyone can attest that playing a teammate in such a tournament is difficult. I think Kratky just was a bit better that day although Bush won the first set 6-0 I believe. With a year of college tennis under his belt, he should be a very reliable spot for the Bears and I expect him to win the majority of his matches if he were to play 3 singles, but could easily see freshman Johnny Wu challenging him for the spot. The both have a very similar style of play.

4 Singles: Johnny Wu: Here is where we see the first new face in the lineup and as I alluded to in the previous paragraph, it is very possible that Wu starts at 4 and moves his way up the lineup. I watched Wu play a couple of matches at the ITA tournament and he is an absolute grinder. He is a little guy that uses his speed extremely well and makes it difficult for his opponent to put away points. His return game is also very neutralizing so you can never expect for Wu to beat himself. I am not sure he has any massive weapons to put points away, but his speed and consistency will wear anyone down. He was one of the Bears to go down to Chua, but made it to the semis of the ITAs which is a good run. Whether it is Wu or Bush playing 4 singles, either will have a lot of success and the bottom half of the lineup can be where Wash U cleans up.

5 Singles: Tyler Kratky: I continually under value Kratky and I am not sure why. He proved himself once again by making it to the finals of the Central Region ITA. Last year, he was a virtual lock for the Bears at 5 singles and I expect no less this season. If you take away the spring trip to California last season, Kratky didn’t lose. Yes I realize they played the best of the best in Cali, but this would have been their first transition to outdoor play so I am going to assume Kratky needed some time to do so. This fall he beat Kranz (Chicago’s 4/5?), Drougas (Case’s 2), teammate Bush, and David Liu (Chicago’s 3/4?) which goes to show that he will be a force once again from the five singles spot. As an upperclassman, he should be relied upon and I think he comes up with the goods.

6 Singles: Kevin Chu/Jason Haugen: I definitely think Chu has the edge at the six spot, but I wanted to mention Haugen because I think he will play quite a bit as Wash U will rest guys throughout the year. Chu upset Krimbill (Case’s 1) and was up a set on eventual champion Chua before bowing out in three sets. Chu has a big serve and hits a big ball that you don’t typically see at six singles. Chu only had two losses against a tough schedule last season. One being against CMS’s Perevezhin (now graduated) and the other being in the team quarters to Trinity. I am sure he would like to have the Trinity match back as it was a crucial spot, but Chu should all but dominate his opponents at six singles. He will get plenty of top competition with the schedule they have laid out.

Doubles: Typically doubles is tough to guess this early into the season, but I have a good idea as to where guys may be this time around. Putterman and Bush will absolutely be playing one doubles and are a Top 5 tandem without question. Yes they lost at ITAs earlier than they should have, but that is the beauty of a pro-set. Anyone can win on any given day. These two are consistently one of the best and will continue to be. Two and three dubs are a bit more difficult to figure out, but if I were a betting man I would put Chu and Haugen at the two position and Carswell combined with either Cogan or Kratky playing three dubs. This leaves out Johnny Wu, but his game just isn’t as overpowering that aggressive doubles asks for. Carswell and Cogan played together last season, but it’s hard to leave out Kratky. With Chu’s massive serve and Haugen’s return, they will be a tough duo. I would favor Wash U at one and three dubs (whomever plays there) against most, if not all teams.

Schedule Analysis

http://bearsports.wustl.edu/sports/mten/2014-15/schedule

I absolutely love this schedule. No one will ever accuse Wash U of ducking competition with how they are set up to play teams across the nation this year. They span the country with matches up north for Indoors, out west for the Stag Hen, and my favorite with an extremely difficult weekend on the east coast. Don’t forget the conference tournament in the UAAs down south being one of the best. There is no doubt this team will be battle tested come tournament time.

Wash U starts off with a good opening match at Depauw. By no means is Depauw a threat to beat them, but traveling to a tough environment away at their indoor courts should get them ready for Indoor Nationals the following weekend. I am not 100% positive on this, but it looks like Wash U drew the 2 seed at National Indoors and will play Kenyon in the first round. This should be a pretty comfortable win to move them into the semis. If my research is correct, here are the seeds for Indoors: 1. Trinity TX, 2. Wash U, 3. Emory, 4. Hopkins, 5. Case, 6. Carnegie Mellon, 7 Kenyon, and 8. Gustavus. With this, and assuming that the seeds hold true, the epic battle of Wash U vs. Emory will happen in the semis. That one is always a toss up with the winner facing Trinity in the finals. I would like to see Wash U get another crack at Trinity in an order to avenge last year’s post season loss. No matter what happens, it should be a great tournament.

Following indoors, Wash U will play some good regional competition in Sewanee and Rochester. Obviously they don’t have the fire power to take the Bears down, but Case does and that match will be played before they head out to California for the Stag Hen. Case upset Wash U a couple of years ago for the program changing win (which Wash U avenged in the conference tourney), but I don’t think they can do it this year. The Bears drew Kenyon once again in the first round of the Stag Hen which is somewhat of a bummer since they will have already played, but that is a good draw for them. I am not sure who else is in the tourney other than CMS and Pomona, but I would like to see a Wash U and CMS final to potentially preview the national title match.

And then comes my favorite choice by Coach Follmer. The team travels out east and will play at Williams on Friday and then against Wesleyan and Amherst on the same day that Saturday. PHEW! That is going to be one heck of a weekend with teams that don’t normally play each other in the regular season. Gustavus made a similar choice last year in a trip like this and I hope the trend continues as it brings about cool match-ups against the national powerhouses. The bad news is we have to wait until April to see these guys go at it. Let’s hope that Amherst and Wash U can step up their twitter presence this year so we can get the updates.

The following weekend must be Texas-Tyler’s spring break as they head up to St. Louis to play the Bears. This also includes matches against Chicago and Whitewater so its a very good quad match going on. Obviously I am excited about the Wash U/Chicago match as it will be the talented freshmen of Chicago against the more battle tested Wash U team. The UAA conference tourney ends the month of April in what is probably the third best tourney all year behind Nationals and Indoor Nationals. The NESCAC supporters could argue this, but with all 8 teams being in the national rankings last season, that is something pretty impressive.

So where does that leave Wash U heading into the season? That is a great question. I have called them a national title contender and I truly believe that. But, I don’t think they get through this schedule unscathed. They will lose a match, possibly two, and I wouldn’t say three is out of the realm of possibilities. I think Wash U will win one of the three big tourneys they play in (Indoors, Stag Hen, or UAAs) which will give them the confidence to make a run come May. If I had a gun to my head asking for predictions (ASouth may do this), I would say Wash U will make the final 4 to start a new streak and potentially the final match, but can’t quite pull off the last win.