Happy holidays DIII tennis faithful, and welcome to another rousing rendition of D3NE’s season previews. I know I’ve been slacking of late, but can you blame me? Yes? Well then, I blame myself. In case you haven’t picked up on this recently, none of the bloggers are too happy with the NCAA over the decrease in Pool-C spots, but one of the few NE teams who won’t be affected by the change are the Skidmore Thoroughbreds. No sir, for the boys in green it’s Liberty League title or bust. Luckily for Coach Simms’ Saratoga squad they’ve made the tournament 7 straight years, and have no plans of stopping the streak. Until last year, Skidmore had been used to rolling through the conference (even if there was a time where the conference didn’t have an automatic bid) and locking up a Pool-A spot (or Pool-B depending on the year).
Last year was supposed to be Skidmore’s year. They had a top play in the country in Oliver Loutsenko, two other top of the lineup players in Danny Knight and Jimmy Sherpa, and a 4th senior anchoring the bottom of their lineup in Gabe Steerman. You all know the story, Loutsenko hurts his wrist early in the season vs. NYU, Skidmore loses to NYU 5-4, then beats Williams without Loutsenko, but cannot take down RPI (another 5-4 loss) later on in the season, Loutsenko comes back and the Thoroughbreds pushed Williams to within mere games of elimination in the round of 32, but end up falling short. The definition of streaky, the roller coaster ride let off at heartbreak hotel and Coach Sims shouldn’t have a hard time motivating anyone who played in that match. The big question will be how to replace the 4 seniors from their starting lineup. In order to fully get the information to the people I’ve brought in a Skidmore insider. He/she/it will give his/her/its take after each of the three sections of the preview (overview, lineup, schedule). So without further ado, here is the first member of D3NE’s Insider’s Club…
INSIDER’S PERSPECTIVE…OVERVIEW: The 2014-15 Skidmore Thoroughbreds men’s tennis season can be summed up in one word; uncertainty. With four graduating seniors from last year who all played a starting role in the lineup and three incoming freshman, it’s hard to predict how the season is going to play out. One positive sign for the Thoroughbreds is that their overall doubles play will still keep them dangerous and they come out of the fall season with a nationally ranked team in Nick “Backswing” Tong and Steven Koulouris coming in at No. 22. Unfortunately, the real question for Skidmore is where they will find their points in singles against the top teams. The fall has shown that they will have an ordeal in trying to replace Loutsenko, who was the absolute stud in the singles lineup last year climbing to No. 3 in the nation. Kit “Shut Up” Sanderson has shown promise, but he’s a long way away from being a top tier player and had a disappointing finish in the Northeast ITA regional losing to Vassar’s Litsky, which saw all Thoroughbreds miss the singles semi-finals for the first time in four years.
QUICK SKID FACTS
Coach: Nate Simms, 10th year
Location: Saratoga Springs, NY
Preseason Power Ranking: #34
Preseason ITA Regional Ranking: #6
Projected End of Season Power Ranking: #About the same. Let’s say 33rd so they move up!!!!!
Projected ITA Regional Ranking: #9
Twitter Handle: @SkidmoreSID
Key Additions: Lucas Pickering (4-star, NY), Ted Berkowitz (3-star CT), Steven Koulouris (3-star NY).
Key Departures: Oliver Loutsenko (#1 singles/#1doubles), Jimmy Sherpa (#2 singles/2,doubles), Danny Knight (#3 singles/#1 doubles), Gabe Steerman (#6 singles/#3 doubles).
Most positive extreme overreaction I’ve heard during the fall: “These freshmen are actually legit. I bet at least one of them cracks the top ½ of the lineup, and maybe 2 by the end of the year.”
Most negative extreme overreaction I’ve heard during the fall: “The Northeast ITA was the worst Skidmore performance in a very long time. This team was hit harder by graduation than any other team in the country. They will not maintain a top-30 ranking.
Reaction 2 Reactions: Obviously the way to handle overreactions is meet them somewhere in the middle. Unfortunately for Thoroughbred fans, I tend to agree more with the negative overreaction.
Projected Singles Lineup
There are two very important things to note when looking at the Skidmore projected roster. The first is that right now there are only 8 guys listed on the roster. I had just assumed that Ransom was abroad, and honestly who knows about Hoblitzell. The rumor going around is that Hoblitzell But either way, an 8-man team in the fall, talk about tight-knit. The issue of course becomes the ever-present injury bug. One bite could absolutely decimate the team. Even if Miles and Alec are back in the spring, who knows what shape they’ll be in. The second important thing to note is that Skidmore actually has already played an important match (rankings-wise at least). The Thoroughbreds fell to Trinity Ct 7-2 in the middle of October. While the result wasn’t what Skidmore fans were hoping for, it did give the rest of us a pretty good idea of what their lineup could look like come spring time.
- Kit Green Sanderson, Range #1-#2: Sanderson had a nice fall, going 10-2 with his best win coming over Dan Carpenter in the dual match vs. Trinity Ct. Although he won the B-Flight at Middlebury early in the fall, he fell in the quarters at the Northeast ITA and at the Bates Invitational. The loss to Litsky is troubling because that will likely be his opponent when the Thoroughbreds take on Vassar in February. Mr. Kit barely played last year, and was a passable bottom of the lineup player two years ago (winning every in-conference match but losing every out of conference dual match.) The win over Carpenter is encouraging, but KGS will need to step his game up this spring if he is going to contend with the #1’s inside of the Liberty League, let along the stronger competition outside of the conference.
- Kai Yuen Leung, Range #1-#3: Leung might be the most pleasant surprise of the fall for Skidmore fans. Lil Lok Sze made a finals run at the Bates Invitational, knocking off Matingo, Mountifield, and Levin in consecutive matches, before falling in two tight sets to Bowdoin’s Kyle Wolfe. That would be great if Leung were still slotted in at the bottom of the Thoroughbred lineup, but #2 is a very different story, as Leung found when he was beaten 2&1 at the hands of Trinity’s #2, Moose Mbithi. Kai Yuen does have the ability to play with the best, he took Ari Smolyar to a super earlier in the fall, but like KGS will have to really take his game up a notch to compete with #2’s around the country.
- Miles Ransom, Range #2-5: The study abroad program kidnapped Miles this fall and held him for…nevermind, just nevermind. Ransom has been abroad for the fall, and will hopefully be returning to Saratoga Springs with his game face on, as he will also be needed to play in a higher spot than last year. Hmmmmm, are we sensing a theme yet? Miles was a solid #4, with flashes of brilliance (he took Solimano to a super last spring) but lost a whole lot more than he won. He should be better than solid as a Liberty League #3, provided he didn’t leave his racquets in the shed at Skidmore all fall, but like the players ahead of him will need to work hard this offseason to prepare for out of conference #3’s.
- Lucas Pickering, Range #2-#6: Lucas had the best fall of any Skidmore freshman, so I was mildly surprised to see him slotted behind Koulouris when the Thoroughbreds fell to Trinity in October. Pickering “pickered” up two wins against Levin this fall, and a straight set win over Mountifield. So I was a bit disappointed to see him go down to Traff in straight sets (3&3) in his first important dual match. However I wasn’t there, and I don’t know the circumstances, the team could have already lost before he was done with his match, or other such deflating excuses. Winning a flight in a fall tournament is never easy, and Lucas did just that, taking the C-Flight at Bates. If he continues to improve, I believe the 4-star will become a fixture in the top ½ of the Skidmore lineup as the season progresses.
- Steven Koulouris, Range #3-#6: I know Koulouris played ahead of Pickering in the Trinity dual match, but the singles results just haven’t been there this fall. Kou Kou’s best wins came as a part of his ITA doubles run, earning him and Tong a spot in the national rankings. While a straight set loss coming from Matty Heinrich isn’t out of the ordinary these days, a straight set loss to Matingo and a superbreaker loss to the Middlebury freshman, De Quant, mean that Koulouris will likely start the spring in the bottom ½ of the lineup. There is room for Kou Kou to move himself up in the order, and in order for Skidmore to succeed both he and Pickering will likely need to do just that.
- Jonah Epstein, Range #5-#8: Jonah had lots of experience at the bottom of the lineup over the past few springs. He has brought in a lot of decent regional wins in his singles career including Parower, Tisdale, Derrington, but has also taken some questionable losses. This fall, Jonah picked up a win against Bard, but lost in straight sets against Farrell and Roddy in the 1st round of the Middlebury and Bates tournaments. Jonah also fell to Levin at #5 in their dual match this fall. Epstein has the experience, which is more than most on this team, and as of now is likely slotted at the bottom of the lineup. That being said, he is by no means a lock for the lineup, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Coach Simms doing some serious tinkering.
- Max “Hashtag” Swerdlick, Range #6-8: Swerdlick picked up a good win over Wise at ITAs, but struggled in his matches against proven competition. He lost to Allen Jackson twice, picking up a total of 6 games, and dropped a 3&3 match to Ned Mandel at the #6 spot in the dual match. Swerdlick cruised through the bottom half of the Liberty League last spring, and should have no issue doing so again. I’d say Max is about even money to start the season in the bottom of the lineup.
- Nick “Backswing” Tong, Range #6-9: Tong always struck me as a doubles specialist. He hands are sick and his returns are very solid. Considering his lack of singles experience over the past year and a ½, I believe Nick will remain a doubles guy this year. Though he would be able to provide some stability, his singles ceiling is not nearly as high as his doubles ceiling.
- Ted Berkowitz, Range #6-9: The freshman played #6 against Bard this fall and picked up a double bagel win, but was out of the lineup for the more important dual match with Trinity. The only fall match that gives us much insight was Ted’s 3&4 loss to Nick Cary. Cary played a lot in the bottom of the Jumbo’s lineup last spring, so this loss can be viewed as somewhat encouraging. However his 1&1 loss to Billy Buchbinder, last year’s #6 for TCNJ, means that Berkowitz is likely not ready for the lineup this early in his career.
INSIDER’S PERSPECTIVE…LINEUP: The moral of the story is that Skidmore will absolutely need a doubles sweep to beat any of the top 20 nationally ranked teams, they won’t get away with beating a Williams taking a 2-1 lead into singles. The doubles 1,2 are most likely set with the Tong/Koulouris and Sanderson/Pickering combinations, and based on Coach Simms’ doubles success in the past few years I would expect him to figure out a competitive third team, Leung/Epstein seem like they may be a good fit. The top of the singles lineup should feature Sanderson, Koulouris, & Ransom, while the second half should finish with a combination of Leung, Max “Hashtag” Swerdlick, Epstein, & Pickering, but knowing Coach Simms it would be a mistake to count anyone out of the lineup and we could see a lot of shifting in this area mid-season.
SCHEDULE
http://www.skidmoreathletics.com/schedule.aspx?path=mten
Best-Case Scenario: Skidmore’s youngins gain the necessary confidence over the early portion of the schedule, knocking off Vassar, NYU, and RPI, pull off one upset in Cali (most likely Cal Lu), push a top-tier team to the brink, sweep the Liberty League, go into the tournament as a #2 seed (thanks NCAA) and make the sweet 16 before falling to an Amherst type host-team.
Worst-Case Scenario: Skidmore isn’t ready out of the gate, falling to NYU and RPI before going on a month long winless drought including the Cali trip, dropping a tight match to Stevens towards the end of the year, entering the Liberty League tourney as the #2 seed, and losing to RPI again in the finals, thus not making the NCAA tournament for the first time in almost a decade.
Realistic Prediction: As much as I’m a non-believer in the Thourghbreds this year, I think the best case scenario is more accurate. Even if Skidmore does slip somewhere this year, with LaBarre transferring I don’t see it being in the Liberty League. They might well lose to Stevens at the end of the year, but I still believe they take the Liberty League and make the tournament.
Schedule Analysis: Normally I’d skip the early part of Skidmore’s schedule and move on to their Spring Break, but this young Thoroughbred team has to prove themselves against Liberty league foes like Vassar and RPI within the first few weeks of the year. While I think Skidmore should be undefeated going into their west coast swing, I’d bet on either Vassar or RPI pushing the Skidmore all the way. Don’t sleep on the early NYU match either. It may be out of conference, but the Violets upset the Thoroughbreds early last spring and Coach Simms will undoubtedly look to take revenge on a Wu-less NYU squad.
Skidmore goes light in Cali, only playing 3 matches in their week-long trip. They NY boys will take on Pomona, Amherst, and Cal Lu. I would be shocked if any of these matches were close. Amherst still doesn’t have their schedule online, so I don’t know if they will be split squadding vs. Skidmore, but I’m not sure it would make any difference. After California they Thoroughbreds will be welcomed home by Middlebury, before traveling to take on Williams and Emory (at Middlebury). This 6-match stretch will tell us a lot about the resilience of this year’s Skidmore team. While a Cal Lu upset is the most likely, you would be hard pressed to find any Skidmore upset picks until the young guns show us what they can do. The Williams match will have a special significance, but I’m afraid there’s a better chance of a Williams sweep than a Skidmore upset.
After the brutal 6-match stretch, Skidmore will return home to take on TCNJ, Stevens, and Hobart, before traveling to Canton to close out the regular season with St. Lawrence. While TCNJ and Stevens are not conference matches, they will be the toughest of these last four. I think Skidmore beats TCNJ, but drops a tight match to Stevens, propelling the Ducks into the top 30, and keeping the Thoroughbreds out of it. Even though St. Lawrence apparently has a new assistant coach (my old friend Timmy Berg) I don’t think they or anyone else in the Liberty League will end up taking down the reigning champs. Upon further analysis, the realistic prediction holds and Skidmore will make the tournament after winning the Liberty League. But why trust me? It’s not like I’m an expert or anything. Let’s hear from our insider…
INSIDER’S PERSPECTIVE…SCHEDULE: Skidmore’s schedule is very similar to recent years; they play the Liberty League schools, they head over to California to play some of the top West Coast teams and they return to face the NESCAC powerhouses. The biggest match for Skidmore this year could very well be their matchup with Stevens Tech on April 12 at home. Last year Skidmore was able to squeeze out a win, though Loutsenko did not play singles pushing everyone down a spot. This year the favorite seems to be Stevens Tech, but don’t count the Thoroughbreds out. Aside from that it’s hard to see them pulling off any major upsets, but at the same time Coach Simms will keep them disciplined and focused throughout, so they are also unlikely to circum to a disappointing loss. All in all, Skidmore will most likely beat who they are supposed to, lose to the powerhouse teams, play a tight one with Stevens, win the Liberty League (thanks LaBarre for transferring), and bow out of the NCAA tourney in the second/third round depending on how kind the draw is, but again it’s hard to see them beating a Northeast host team in May.
So there you have it. Both my “insider” and I think that Skidmore will win the Liberty League, but fall flat early in the tournament. A lot of whether or not Skidmore will retain their top-30 ITA ranking will come from their Stevens match, as both teams should be fighting for a similar ranking. As we are bordering on the holidays, (NOTE: I started this preview on December 16th and haven’t done a thing since) let me be the 718th to wish you a safe and happy holiday season. We appreciate each and every one of our readers, and this year as a special thank you D3ASouth has agreed that if he reaches 500 followers by New Years he will strip down to his skivvies and tweet a picture answering the age-old question, boxers or briefs. Personally I’m thinking a red and green Speedo with a new years hat for festive flair. Check out D3Central’s GAC preview from earlier today, and The Blog will be back next week with a preview of both Trinity Tx and Trinity Ct (just to be confusing).