2015 Season Preview: #26 (#22 ITA) Trinity Ct Bantams

Before I get into my Trinity preview, I wanted to take a second to talk about something important to me. You don’t have to read this first paragraph, but I’d be obliged if you do. Some of you know that I have always been a huge Stuart Scott fan. I thought about taking the time to write this article using as many “Stu” references as possible, but I actually did that during our 2014 NCAA previews last spring (http://www.division3tennis.com/2014-ncaas-middlebury-regional/). Plus that doesn’t quite capture the current mood. The man is an inspiration. For any of you that still haven’t seen or heard his speech at the ESPYs last year, please check out the following link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K9cSX5XPY70. Almost all of us know someone who is currently affected or has been affected by a loved one’s battle with cancer. It does not need to be an immediate family member or close personal friend. It could be a colleague, a classmate, an “adopted child” on your or your friend’s college team, or even just the man who talks about sports on your television. Next time you think about that person, think about what you can do to help. As Scott says in his speech, “this whole fight, this journey thing is not a solo venture. It requires support.” Support does not have to be a difficult thing. It can come in many different ways. It could be a phone call or short visit. It could be offering to cook them a meal. It could even be a simple smile as you pass them in the hallway. It doesn’t matter how you offer to help, because I assure you that something so small as a smile can make a difference in a person’s day. Before moving on to the Trinity preview, I want to leave you with one final thought from Scotts speech.

“When you die, that does not mean that you lose to cancer. You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, and the manner in which you live. So live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight, lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you.”

Lay down and rest, Stuart. Let us fight for you. Please consider donating to the American Cancer Society at https://donate.cancer.org/index. Every little bit helps. Thank you for reading. Now let’s get to the tennis.

 Trinity Ct 2014-2015 Season Preview

Wooooooo! Tennis! Trinity comes into the 2015 spring season with an undefeated record and high hopes. They took care of Skidmore 7-2 back in October. While none of the blog was that high on Skidmore to begin with (power ranked 34) I believe a new power rankings would have Trinity closer to #20 than #25. That should be Trinity’s goal this year, to move back into the top 20. It used to be a given that Trinity would make the NCAA tournament and retain a top 20 national ranking. Now it would be somewhat of a surprise if the Bantams made the NESCAC tournament in the beginning of May. If ever the Trinity team were to make a run for the top 20, this would be the year. The Bantams did not graduate a single player from their starting lineup. They have four seniors in their projected singles lineup, and likely one more as a doubles specialist. Assaiante’s teams have lacked leadership in the past few years, but with captains Mandel, Mbithi, Myers, and Carpenter at the helm, this ship (leadership…get it?) could be righted in 2015.

Much hinges on Trinity’s weaknesses, the top of the singles lineup and the doubles. My lineup analysis will delve further into these issues, but in order for the Bantams to have a successful 2015 spring season, they will need to avoid the sweep and possibly even take a few leads into singles play. Let’s see some facts about the school and check in on the most interesting reactions I’ve heard about this Trinity team…

QUICK TRIN FACTS

Coach: Paul Assaiante, 19^th year

Location: Hartford, Ct

Preseason Power Ranking: #26

Preseason ITA Regional Ranking: #5

Projected End of Season Power Ranking: #23

Projected ITA Regional Ranking: #7

Twitter Handle: @BantamTennis (seldom used)

Key Additions: Rex Glickman (4-star, NY), Kyle Scheffers (3-star IL)

Key Departures: Kayong Lee???

Most positive extreme overreaction I’ve heard during the fall: “C’mon, the 7-2 thrashing of Skidmore, who is still nationally ranked, shows that Trin is for real.”

Most negative extreme overreaction I’ve heard during the fall: “Trin has a team full of #4’s. You can’t win with a team full of #4’s.”

Reaction 2 Reactions: I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, these are listed as overreactions for a reason. Beating a depleted Skidmore team is not enough proof for me to believe in the Bantams just yet, but they are certainly better than a “team full of #4’s”. Let’s take a deeper look at the upperclassmen-laden lineup.

Projected Singles Lineup

Just like in my recent Skidmore preview, I have some semblance of a Trinity lineup to work with. The lineup below is the lineup that coach Assaiante used for the dual match vs. the Thoroughbreds.

#1 Dan Carpenter (Sr), Range #1-#2: The fall was not kind to the Trinity numero uno. After a super breaker loss to Smolyar in the semis at Middlebury, Carpenter got by Henry Lee of Bates before falling to Jackson Frons in the 2^nd round at ITAs. We all know that Frons runs hot and cold, but a 2^nd round loss to a guy who played mainly #6 for the Panthers in 2013-2014 is not encouraging. DC followed up his disappointing ITA with a 3&4 loss to Noah Bragg in the 1t round of the Bates Invitational and a similar 3&4 loss to Green Sanderson in the Trinity/Skidmore dual match. Look, a couple of fall losses might mean nothing. The senior lefty is really solid and will rarely beat himself. However, Carpenter finished 2014 with 5 straight losses (albeit against tough competition), and I am slightly worried that Trinity’s big dawg has lost his way. Carpenter will need to regain his swag (although he has always seemed like one of the least “swaggy-P” types around) if Trinity is to succeed in 2015.

#2 Musyoka “Moose” Mbithi (Sr), Range #1-#4: Moose is a troublesome beast. He has the talent and firepower to play #1, but he hasn’t quite gotten over the hump. Before the fall his best win was Stephen Monk (though he did push Smolyar and Chirs Lord to superbreakers last spring). During the fall season Moose was the recipient of some of the worst draw luck in DIII. He drew Telkedzhiev, the Tufts #1, in the first round at Middlebury, Solimano, the Amherst #1 and eventual ITA winner, in the first round of ITAs, and he drew Noah Farrell, one of the two best freshman in the region, in the first round at Bates. Luckily for Mr. Mbithi, Skidmore doesn’t boast that same type of power. Moose dispatched Leung with ease at the #2 spot in their dual match, 2&1. I believe Moose has the talent to hang with some #2’s in the region, given this Trinity lineup it will be unlikely to find consistent points at the #2 spot no matter who is playing there. Moose will likely be more productive in the doubles, where he will likely play #1 with Traff.

#3 Rutendo Matingo (So), Range #2-5: Matingo was last year’s highly touted freshman, but the kid had his ups and downs. He is a streakier version of Mbithi, boasting wins over Frons and Avery Schober, but taking some beatings including a double bagel at the hands of Sam King at NESCACs. Rutendo is very talented, in my opinion is one of the most important cogs in the Trinity machine. He certainly can beat anyone on any given day, but his head has to be in the right place to do so. The 4&2 win over Koulouris in the Skidmore dual match is a good place to start, but Rutendo will have to maintain a certain consistency if he is to stay successful in the top ½ of the Bantam lineup.

#4 Ford Traff (Jr), Range #2-#6: Traff has always been a bit of a mystery to me. He is another very talented Trinity player, whose results (in my mind) do not fully represent his talent. He went 12-4 as a freshmen, including wins over Palmer Campbell, Timmy Berg, and pushing Felix Sun to 7-6 in the 3^rd. During Traff’s sophomore campaign he went 7-5 at #5 but only 2-4 against teams ranked in the top 30, and 0-4 against teams ranked in the top 25. Wins over Michael Arguello, and the freshman pair of Lucas Pickering and Griffin Brockman show that Traff’s third year may be more similar to his first than his second. Traff is also an excellent doubles player, and will likely play #1 doubles along with Mbithi

#5 Ilya Levin (Sr) , Range #4-#N/A: Like Traff, Levin’s 2014 was not as successful as his 2013. Ilya went from a decent #4 to a fairly unreliable #6 over the past two years, and like many of his more talented teammates will need to step his game up this year. Another crafty lefty, the senior will have an experience edge on his closest lineup competitors. Levin’s win over Epstein in the dual match was encouraging, but considering the depth of this Trinity team, Ilya will need to keep up both the consistency and the effort if he wants to remain a fixture in the Bantam lineup.#1

#6 Ned Mandel (Sr), Range #5-#N/A: Man do we have a theme here or what? Mandel’s only years with a winning percentage above .500 was his freshman campaign. Since then he has played anywhere between #2 and #5, and was locked in at #6 for this fall’s dual match with Skidmore. Luckily Mandel handled his business at the anchor position with a 3&3 win over Swerdlick. However his 2&0 dismantling at the hands of the Tufts’ freshman Brockman in the 1^st round of ITAs was a shocker to everyone outside of Medford. Like Carpenter, Mandel needs to find his swag and lead this team back to happier days. He certainly has the talent and passion to do it. If he can find his swag and do his thing at the bottom of the Bantam lineup this year, I think he could be one of the more successful #6’s in the region.

• Kyle Scheffers (Fr), Range #5-N/A: Though he is listed as Trinity’s 2^nd best recruit according to our friends at TRN (http://www.tennisrecruiting.net/team.asp?id=667), Kyle was the only Bantam freshman to get any significant playing time this fall. He beat Anothony Kim, RPI’s #6 in 2013 (who had a tremendous season anchoring RPI’s lineup), and lost to the freshman pair of Zain Ali and Shawn Speer (Tufts and Colby respectively.) Both Ali and Speer had good falls, but if Scheffers wants to both crack and remain in the Bantam’s starting lineup those are matches he will need to win. Kyle also played a good amount of doubles over the fall but didn’t factor into the dual match with Skidmore. Depending on Glickman’s status, I think Scheffers is the next in line for a start in both the singles and doubles lineup.
• Rex Glickman (Fr), Range #5-N/A: Sexy Rexy hasn’t played a lick of tennis this fall. For all I know he could have transferred or deferred. Perhaps he’s just injured? Who knows, because Trinity isn’t very good about taking people off of their online roster. Any comments on Rex’s whereabouts would be greatly appreciated. As you all know, it’s wrong to base a prediction of a freshman based purely off their junior numbers, but at some point you have to realize that those numbers are there for a reason. He was Trinity’s highest ranked recruit for 2014, and hopefully he can contribute in some way while he and Kyle are surrounded by talented upperclassmen.
• Aaron Segal (Jr), Range: #6-N/A: Aaron? Where are you? Most of the other Trinity juniors stayed at school this fall, but maybe Mr. Segal decided to study abroad as so many juniors do. Although he played sparingly in 2014, Aaron was one of the lone bright spots in Trinity’s 2013 season. Another consistent player capable of winning at the bottom of the lineup, Segal could be another member of Assaiante’s revolving door at #6.
• Carlos Ferryos (Jr), Range #6-N/A: Ferryos hasn’t played much singles this year, tallying only one match, a loss to Truman Sandberg (Colby freshman) in the 1^st round at Bates. Carlos fits into the “contenders” category because he does have some lineup experience. The Peruvian Junior is likely at the bottom of the real singles contenders list, but he still needs to be mentioned. Carlos also played some doubles this fall, but he played some doubles last fall and then didn’t see a sniff of the lineup come springtime.
• David Myers (Sr), Range: #6-N/A: Myers is and has always been more of a doubles guy. Big serve and giant forehand. His 4&3 loss to Ordway at Bates shows that there might be some potential for the singles lineup, but my guess is that even with his 0-3 record in doubles so far this fall he remains part of the Bantam’s doubles lineup.
  

SCHEDULE

http://athletics.trincoll.edu/sports/mten/2014-15/schedule

Best-Case Scenario: The Trinity seniors use the Skidmore win as a springboard to an intense offseason and start the year with a big 9-0 sweep of MIT. In Cali, the Bantams play PP and Bowdoin to tight 5-4 losses and beat a Cal Lu team poised to be upset. The Bantams find their doubles and that combined with their depth proves to be too much for Tufts and Wesleyan. Even with losses to Amherst and Williams, Trinity goes into NESCACs as the #5 seed and secures its first end of the season ranking in the top 15 by upsetting Bowdoin in the 1^st round of NESCACs. They still miss out on the tournament, but this season leads the Bantams to secure a couple solid recruiting classes to replace the soon to be graduating upperclassmen.

Worst-Case Scenario: Senior leadership be damned. Trinity squeaks by Sewanee and Denison while falling handily to PP, Bowdoin, and Cal Lu. They then are outworked by a Tufts team boasting similar strengths and taken down by a hot Wesleyan team. Trinity misses NESCACs, misses NCAAs, and barely holds onto their top-30 ranking by virtue of the win over Skidmore in October.

Realistic Prediction: Honestly, this Trinity season is very hard to forecast. I would love to just sit back on my haunches, attach my bandwagon to Tufts and Wesleyan, and say that Trinity has no shot at NESCACs, but I just can’t bring myself to do that (perhaps the holidays have made me soft, who knows?) I think Trinity will hover in the low 20’s and I really do think they can beat Cal Lu and challenge Bowdoin. Gun to my head, I still say they finish outside of NESCACs, but they’re my 1^st choice to fill in when either Tufts or Wesleyan

Schedule Analysis: Trinity starts the season with a non-conference clash with MIT. The Bantams should take down the Engineers, and head into their spring break at 2-0. Assaiante scheduled a warm up match early in the week, and Trinity should have no problem with Chapman. From there it gets a bit tougher, as the Bants have 5 matches in 5 days including Sewanee (@CMS), Pomona, Cal Lu, Bowdoin, and Denison. Although the Bantam Boys had a rough go of their spring break last year (including a 5-4 loss to Denison) they rebounded nicely to end their week with a NESCAC win over Tufts. While Trinity should be better than last year, I still see Pomona and Bowdoin as a full step above the Bantams. If Trinity can escape Thousand Oaks with a win over Cal Lu, and take care of business against Sewanee and Denison, they should be able to stomach the two losses to top #15 teams.

Upon their return to Hartford, Trinity will have a rare and welcome weekend without matches. Then the Bantams play host to Conn College, which should be another tally-mark in the W column. Then Trinity hosts Tufts and travels up to Waterville to take on the Mules. The blog is big on Tufts this year, and the match with the Jumbos is one of Trinity’s two most important in 2015. As of now, I don’t think Trinity can hang with Tufts at the top of the lineup, so I like the Jumbos to take some revenge for last year’s brutal 5-4 defeat. Tough to travel up to Maine on the same day as playing one of the biggest matches of the year, but I don’t think Colby has the depth to stick with the Bantams. Reid should take down Carpenter (or whomever is playing #1 at that point) but I think Trinity gets out of Maine with a 6-3 or 7-2 win. After Colby, Trinity goes to Amherst where they will be lucky to get out with a point. A few days after a likely shellacking, Trinity will play their other giant match, against Wesleyan. At this point, this match seems pretty close even as well, and I look forward to previewing it further when the time comes, but for now I think Wesleyan escapes Hartford, leaving Trinity on the outside looking into NESCACS.

Trinity will end their season with Hamilton and at Williams. That should be a pretty easy split, as Trin will overwhelm Hamilton while Williams seems to be a better version of the Bantams. It’s important to note that Trinity doesn’t have either Bates or Brandeis on their 2015 schedule. Both would be tests for the Bantams, but not necessarily move Trinity any further up the rankings. If Trin can squeak by either Wesleyan or Tufts, this little scheduling decision could end up being a great decision.

Conclusion: We know the story. Trinity is deep, and has a number of capable bench players if necessary. However while the strengths remain the same, so do the issues. Carpenter seems lost and will need to re-find whatever it is he seems to have misplaced. Without a strong #1, be it Carpenter or Mbithi, Trinity will have a hard time getting 5 points from teams in the top 20. Without too much effort, they should be able to stay in the top 30, but will need one of their many seniors to step up big time if they are to reclaim a top 20 ranking that used to be a given. This should be a fun team to watch through 2015, as (barring an insane recruiting class) this is their last shot at the top 20 for the next few years. Let’s see if the 4 senior captains can lead this team to back-to-back NESCACs appearances, and end their respective careers on a high note.