2015 Season Preview: #23 (#28 ITA) Bates Bobcats

Bates 2014-2015 Season Preview

A whole host of issues stand in the way of Bates’ 2015 campaign, some old and some new. We all know the Bobcats play some top-notch doubles, but in recent years their issue was always the bottom of their lineup. I don’t think that will be the case this spring, as Bates, behind two decent recruiting years, has put together a deeper lineup than in years past. The issue instead will be the middle of the lineup, that and the deepening talent pool in the best conference in the damn country. A few years ago, 3 guys and 8 recruiting stars could have made a huge difference for a team like Bates, now they need that just to tread water in the middle of the conference (and middle of the region for that matter). With Skidmore’s decline coming, I think Bates and Trinity round out the top 8 in the NESCAC and the region. Brandeis, Stevens, and NYU are looking to crack that top 8 as well, but until they beat one of the NESCAC top-8 this year, I’m sticking with it (for all you Stevens fans out there, I really have nothing against your team, I just think the top NESCAC teams are better this year.) Bates will be relying heavily on 3 of its 4 classes, having swung and missed with it’s 2012 recruiting class, leaving 5 or 6 possible underclassmen who could factor into the lineup at some point in 2015. With the high level recruiting classes of Williams, Bowdoin, Wesleyan, and Tufts, Bates and Trinity seem to be the two teams on the outside of NESCACs. I’m sure I’ll make my annual plea to expand the conference tournament to 8 teams later in the year, but for now let’s take a look at this Bates team and what they will need to do in order to make both the top 20 and NESCACs.

QUICK BATES FACTS

Coach: Paul Gastonguay, 19^th year

Location: Lewiston, Maine

Preseason Power Ranking: #23

Preseason ITA Regional Ranking: #7

Projected End of Season Power Ranking: #24 (but I think they will move up in the ITA National Rankings)

Projected ITA Regional Ranking: #8

Twitter Handle: @BatesTennis. (can be excellent or terrible, depending on the day)

Key Additions: Ben Rosen (3-star, NY), Adam Schwartz (3-star Ca), Josh Leiner (2-star, Md), Andrew Berghuis (Canada)

Key Departures: Timmy Berg (#1 singles/#1 doubles), Ben Bogard (#6 singles/#2 doubles), Peter Yanofsky (#2 doubles/#3 singles and/or not in the singles lineup??)

Most positive extreme OVERREACTION I’ve heard during the fall: Is this coach just some sort of doubles wizard? With Gastonguay at the helm, this team can take a lead on any team on any day.

Most negative extreme OVERREACTION I’ve heard during the fall: Bates is a simply a worse version of Trinity and Bowdoin. They have a strong player at the top, and a bunch of decent #5’s afterwards.

Reaction 2 Reactions: Yes, Bates’ doubles are generally strong, however they simply have not been strong enough to consistently beat top 20 teams let alone the bigger fish. That being said, Ellis is definitely more than your average #5, and the Bobcats should find some other firepower from improving underclassmen. I don’t see Bates as being any worse than Trinity, though both seem to be a level down from Bowdoin.

Projected Singles Lineup

#1: Pierre “Daddy” Planche (Sr), Range #1-#1: Pierre had a bit of an up and down fall. He lost in the 1^st round at Midd, 7-6, 6-7, 8-10 to Jacobson (Tufts #2), but then turned it around and made a quarterfinal run at the ITA. Along the way he took down Smolyar (Midd #1) 7-6 in the 3^rd before falling to Liu (Wesleyan top/middle of the lineup) in the quarters. He saved his best stuff for dubs however, and he (along with Ellis) took home the doubles title. Planche has filthy stuff, and this promotion to #1 has been a long time coming. However, he also has an inordinate amount of pressure on him this spring. Coach Gastonguay will need Pierre to be an anchor, netting 2 points in every match. This system is no different than with Crampton/Bettles/Berg in years past, but this year the drop off in talent occurs farther up in the lineup. Pierre is definitely one of the best players in the region and the whole country, but with his history he will really need to take care of his body if he wants to compete for a national championship in May. He also might have to bring back the dirty stache…

#2 Chris Ellis (So) Range #2-#3: Ellis played some solid #3 last year, but will need to step up his game if he is to contend at #2 against Bates’ rigorous schedule. His only singles of the fall yielded some pretty great results, taking down Palmer Campbell (Midd top/middle of the lineup) in a superbreaker and pushing Telkedzhiev (Tufts #1) to a superbreaker as well. Chris didn’t play singles at the ITA due to an injury, and missed the Bates tournament because he and Planche were at Small College Nationals. These results do not mirror his results from last spring, so Bates fans should hope that Ellis has taken his game to a new level. He is a grinder, and seems to love nothing more than playing a long match. The dude wears his heart on his sleeve, and I cant fault him for that, but I’ll need to see consistent singles results like the ones in the fall before I’m a true believer in his singles game. Look for him and Planche to be a top contender for individual NCAAs as a doubles team.

#3 Adam Schwartz (Fr), Range #3-#5: This is a bold move, but word on the street is that the Cali freshman is a pretty talented dude. Whomever plays at #3 is likely to endure a lot of losses at first, but will also gain some incredible match experience. I like the idea of putting a talented freshman at #3, giving him the stellar competition, and putting your more experienced players a little further down to give them a better chance to win. Given how close I see all these guys, I don’t see this as stacking, but feel free to comment if you see it differently. Schwartz didn’t play much this fall due to injury, in fact he retired from his only singles match of the fall, but he was playing doubles again by the end of the fall at the Bates tournament so I’m assuming he’s ok. There is also the possibility for a revolving lineup. We’ve all heard the phrase revolving door used to describe a team whose #6 player constantly switches in and out (in fact, Bates has had a history of this), but what about a revolving lineup? Coach Gastonguay doesn’t seem to like to switch around his lineup that often, but perhaps this is the year for some serious tinkering?

#4 Brent Feldman (So), Range #3-#7: Feldman plays people close. It doesn’t really matter who it is. This fall, Feldman went 1-3 and played at least one tiebreak in every match. He lost to Mountifield (bottom of the Midd lineup) in a super, lost to Hall (Gordon #1) 7-6 in the 3^rd at the ITA, beat Lubarsky (Brandeis middle of the lineup) in a super, and lost to Frons (Midd middle of the lineup) in two tight sets. Brent played the middle of Bates’ lineup last spring, and took home a record that was not reflective of his play. After going 2-15 on the year I’m sure Mr. Feldman is ready to start taking home some of the close matches. So it was nice to see him get a superbreaker win this fall, but he will need many more of them if he is to stay in the middle of this lineup. Bates is deeper this year, and if Brent keeps losing close matches, he could be on the outside very quickly. That being said, he is too talented to let that happen. Even if Feldman only wins some of the tight matches this year, he give Bates a chance to win at the middle of the lineup that some other candidates would not provide as consistently.

#5 Pat Ordway (So), Range #3-7: Ordway had a good fall, with a couple ok wins against likely Trinity and Midd bench players at Middlebury, an ITA loss to Wong (Tufts middle of the lineup), and taking Green Sanderson (Skidmore #1) to a super breaker at Bates. Pat was one of the most consistent parts of the Bobcat lineup last year (outside Planche/Berg) He’s got a big serve and can rip both sides from the baseline. But last year he definitely showed his inexperience at times. Ordway is likely entrenched in the doubles lineup as well (likely #2 with Lee), so he will be a big time cog in the Bobcat machine this spring. If he continues to improve, he could be a steady middle of the lineup player, or a dominant bottom of the lineup guy in 2015.

#6 Henry Lee (Sr) Range #3-#6: Lee didn’t play singles at Midd, and lost both his 1^st round matches (ITA and Bates) this fall. His losses came to Carpenter and Bunis, who will both likely play higher than Lee in their respective lineups (Carpenter definitely will). But the Little General (please tell me that’s a real nickname) has something that most others on this team lack, some match experience (also, if Planche is Daddy, does that make Lee the team’s mommy? These are the things that keep me up at night). Lee had a couple nice wins last year vs. Schidlovsky and Griffin (middle/bottom of the lineup guys for Williams and Mary Wash) but also took down a slew of losses. He has a history of injuries, and will need to make sure whatever ails him stays healthy in 2014, as the senior captain will likely be relied upon in both singles and doubles (#2 with Ordway? Who knows) all season long.

• Ben Rosen (Fr) Range #4-8: Another freshman, Rosen didn’t play at Middlebury, so the only results we have to go off are from the Bates tournament. Rosen did win a match, unlike the two freshmen below him on this list, taking down fellow freshmen Doug Mo from Colby, before falling to Tufts freshman Danny Coran in the 2^nd Schwartz and Rosen have been talked about as being in a class above Leiner and Berghuis in terms of Bates’ recruiting class, however neither has the fall results to back up that talk. It wouldn’t surprise me if Rosen cracks the starting lineup, especially if Bates re-employees the revolving door technique.
• Josh Leiner (Fr), Range #6-9: Leiner lost two super breakers in the 1^st round at Middlebury and Bates this fall, and both to players who might not be in their respective lineups at the start of the season (Rodriguez (Amherst) definitely won’t be, Schlanger (Midd) might be). To be fair, Schlanger is a talented freshman, and Rodriguez has the senior factor. Neither are terrible losses, especially considering Josh got a set in both matches. But he also lost a set lead in both matches. Bates does not need another player who has trouble closing. Josh is talented, but will probably start the season on the bench.
• Andrew Berghuis (Fr), Range: 6-10: I’m gonna be honest with you all, I know absolutely nothing about this kid. TRN tells us he’s from Canada, and the Bates website says he lost in the first round of the D-Flight at Middlebury (Berkowitz, Skidmore bench) and the first round of the C-Flight at Bates (Levin, Trinity’s #5). It seems like Berghuis is destined for his first American season to be sitting on the bench.
• Cosmin Bardin (Jr), Range #6-10: The first of the two Romanians to hit the NESCAC has proved to be less successful than his Colby countryman (Murad), but don’t give up on Cosmin just yet. The lefty has a high intensity and did gain some match experience at #6 last spring. Because of Bates’ young guns it’s probably a long shot, but if Bardin was training this past fall (I’m assuming he spent his junior fall abroad and not injured? Someone confirm?) you never know.
  

SCHEDULE

http://athletics.bates.edu/sports/mten/2014-15/schedule

Best-Case Scenario: Bates plays Pomona to a tight 5-4 loss, smokes Whittier, and fights well against CMS. They come home an inspired group, roll through the easier part of their schedule, and sweep their A-South trip including a thrilling 5-4 win over Mary Wash. The middle of the lineup steps up and Bates beats Brandeis, eeks out a close win over Wesleyan, drops a tight 5-4 match to Bowdoin, and puts the hurt on Conn. Midd beats Bates in a 6-3 match that’s close than the score, the Bobcats sweep doubles from Tufts and take down the Jumbos, fall to Amherst, but beat Trinity handily before losing a close match to Williams at the end of the year. Bates gets the 5th seed at NESCACs, matches up against either Williams or Bowdoin and avenges the 5-4 loss dealt to them in the regular season, thus ending their opponent’s NCAA hopes. Bates falls to Amherst in the NESCAC semis for the 2nd time in 3 years, and ends the season around #15-#17 in the country. The Cats get one more top recruit and continue to battle for a top 4 spot in the conference in the coming years.

Worst-Case Scenario: Bates gets swept (again) on their February trip, including a 5-4 loss to Whittier. They return home a disgruntled group, drop one of the early matches to either Babson, MIT, or Colby, and then head down to Mary Washington where they drop a close match to NCW and a not so close match to Mary Wash. Brandeis upsets Bates 5-4, Wesleyan’s young talent rolls through the Bocats, and Bowdoin avenges their loss from last spring. Bates gets back in the win column vs Conn, but Midd strolls into Lewiston and puts the smackdown. Tufts gets a close win over the Bobcats, Amherst blanks the Cats, Trinity squeaks out a 5-4 win, and Williams ends Bates’ season in a not so dramatic 8-1 fashion. The Bobcats end the season outside of the top 30 and outside of the top 10 in the region for the first time since Brady and Belichick became household names.

Realistic Prediction: It’s a bit boring, but realistically outside of last season’s black hole there aren’t usually more than a handful of surprises each year. I’ll spell it out in the schedule analysis section below, but I see Bates finishing the year around the same regional ranking, but 7th or 8th in the NESCAC. That will lead them to a national ranking around where they are now, maybe one or two spots higher depending on how they do vs. Brandeis, Trinity Ct, and Tufts. If they can take 2/3, they should end around #25.

Schedule Analysis: As has become the custom in recent years, Bates will make a February trip out west, where they will take on Pomona, Whittier, and CMS. Bates is an interesting “spring” break case because they are out playing matches within a few days of their season starting. NESCAC teams are allowed to begin practice on February 15^th, and the Bobcats will play their first match @Pomona on February 18^th. That will be a tough match, as Pomona seems to have a similar makeup to Bates, strong at the top but also very deep. I think Pomona should have too much talent for Bates, but it will be exciting to see what doubles teams Bates trots out, and how Planche fares against Yasgoor (or whoever plays #1 for the Hens). I’m going with Pomona 6-3 or 7-2. Then Bates has their most winnable match of the trip, at Whittier the following day. This will be the Poet’s first match of the year, and our first look at Coach Belletto’s somewhat depleted lineup. I think Bates gets a California win, something that has been a struggle, and beats the Poets 6-3. CMS on the 21^st should be a slightly tougher task. Bates’ top doubles has had some success against the Stags in years past, and the only thing that interests me about this match will be #1 doubles and #1 singles. CMS, 8-1.

After Cali, Bates has a couple in region matches in which they will be favored. Babson, MIT, and Colby should all present challenges, but I think Bates wins all three, avenging their Colby loss from last spring. Then the Bobcats travel down to the Mid-Atlantic where they will face a rejuvenated NC Wesleyan team and then Mary Washington the following day. I have no clue what to make of the NCW team, so I’ll hold judgment there, but the Mary Wash match should be a battle. The Bates/Mary Wash rivalry isn’t fierce, but has produced a couple of good matches in the past few years. I see this as a 5-4 matchup, and as of now I’d lean towards the Eagles, but we’ll reevaluate, as we get closer to March.

After the mini Mid-Atlantic swing, the Bobcats return home for their annual frenemy match with Brandeis. Deis seems stronger this year, but I still fear for their doubles. We’ll see what D3Regional says in his Judges preview (to come out later this week) but I think Gastonguay bests protégé Lamana in another tight match. After Deis, Bates hosts Wesleyan the next day. This is a HUGE match for both teams and will likely play a huge part in determining who gets into NESCACs and who gets left in the #25-30 range. If Wesleyan took down the Bobcats last year, I don’t see how they wouldn’t do it again this year. After Wesleyan, Bates hosts Bowdoin, goes to Conn, and hosts Midd. The Bates vs. Bowdoin match is always a big one, but until last year had been totally one sided. Sorry Bates fans, especially @CharlieBrown, but seeing as I think Bowdoin’s doubles will be better this year, the Polar Bears should be able to exact revenge for the surprise 5-4 loss in 2014. Bates should have no problem with Conn, and then after a week off, gets a crack at Middlebury. While Midd should be down this year, I think they still just have too much talent for the Bobcats/middle of the NESCAC and walk away from Lewiston with a 7-2 win.

Bates continues its end of April with a couple of exceedingly vital matches. After hosting Midd, the Bobcats hit the road to take on Tufts, Amherst, home for Trinity Ct, and go to Williamstown to close out their regular season. Like Middlebury, Amherst and Williams should still be too much for the Bobcats, meaning their season will come down to matches with Tufts and Trinity Ct. These matches are too close to call right now, and I can’t wait to see how these three teams battle for what seems to be one NESCAC playoff spot (or two if you include Wesleyan). Bates has had Tufts’ number in the past few years, but with a new head coach, a good recruiting class and no vital graduations (with the exception of maybe Blau…love that kid) I think Tufts is poised to take down the Bobcats and put a strangle hold on that final conference tournament spot. As for Trinity, that match might be the closest Bates plays all year. For now, I’ll say Bates takes it 5-4 (regardless of what I said in my Trinity preview), just because they will play better doubles than the Bantams. That leaves Bates in the #22-25 range nationally (maybe slightly higher in our power rankings) and sitting at 7^th in the conference and the region. We’ll see what doubles magic Coach Gastonguay has up his sleeve, but I can’t wait to see how the chase for the final spot in NESCACs plays out. D3Regional should have a Brandeis preview, ASouth should have Hopkins, and I will be back with Tufts by the weekend. Also, check out D3NEWoman’s Bowdoin preview, which came out earlier today. Apparently questions are asked…imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.