2015 Season Preview: #21 (#29 ITA) Tufts Jumbos

QUICK TUFTS FACTS

Coach: Karl Gregor, 1^st year

Location: Medford, Massachusetts

Preseason Power Ranking: #21

Preseason ITA Regional Ranking: #8

Projected End of Season Power Ranking: #20 (but should move up from their #29 ITA ranking)

Projected ITA Regional Ranking: #6

Twitter Handle: @TuftsMensTennis. (Generally pretty good)

Key Additions: Rohan Gupte (4-star, Nv), Zain Ali (3-star, NY), Justin Brogan (3-star, Me) Danny Coran (3-star, Wi), Garrett Weinstein (2-star, MD).

Key Departures: Austin Blau (#4 singles/#3 doubles), Zach Ladwig (#5 singles), Matt Pataro (#1 doubles).

Most positive extreme OVERREACTION I’ve heard during the fall: “Tufts has the talent to challenge for a conference title. Between the young talent and the new coach, the Jumbos will distance themselves from the middle of the NESCAC.”

Most negative extreme OVERREACTION I’ve heard during the fall: “Tufts is a young team with a history of issues. Once a problem team, always a problem team. Too many people are too high on this team. Tufts will be lucky to make NESCACs.”

Reaction 2 Reactions: Can you guess which of the two reactions came from a previous member of the Jumbos? Obviously I think both are bordering on ridiculous, but the negative overreaction is a more likely scenario. This team certainly has a lot of potential, but will likely need a year or two before they have a shot at moving up from NESCAC mediocrity.

Overview: Tufts’ entire season preview can be boiled down into two words: doubles and coaching. Last year, there were many incidents between Coach Kenney and the Tufts team. Players were suspended, players quit, and players had freak injuries. Hopefully the coaching issues are now in the past. In fact, a current member of the team said, “We are ecstatic to have Karl have a Coach. This is just what we’ve always wanted.” I thought it would be better to have a Tufts insider give a little more information, so just like my Skidmore preview, here is a Tufts’ insider’s thoughts on the upcoming season. I’ll save the majority of my thoughts for lineup and schedule analyses. There is some breaking news in the Insider’s Overview, but since it was his or her information I figured I should let him or her break it…

Insider Overview: The addition of Karl Gregor as head coach provides the Jumbos with a great platform for success going forward. After a tumultuous end to last season under Coach Kenney, the gang looks refocused and revitalized, to working off of consecutive NESCAC tournaments for the first time in program history. Now their focus shifts to making NCAAs. The details of last season remain grey, however what is clear is that Kenney was not fit for the job and lost control of her team after she suspended multiple players and coaches before and during NESCACs. Tufts’ 2015 season outlook was a lot better before Brad Wong’s lower back injuries, which will cause him to miss the entire season (BREAKING NEWS ALERT). The Jumbos must now rely on its depth. With doubles very shaky in the spring and the loss of the calming influence of Captain Blau, Gregor will look to mix things up this spring. Coach Gregor must find pairings that can help the Jumbos avoid the 1-2 hole (or worse yet, the 0-3 sweep) going into singles. Doubles has been Tufts weakest point throughout recent years. This team has the talent to not only make NESCACs but also end up as top 4 seed (beating Bowdoin). What works for the Jumbos is not only their depth, but also their experience. Bowdoin and Wesleyan are both younger, and this could work to Tufts’ advantage if Nik, Rob and Jay are in top form.

Lineup analysis (D3NE/Insider)

#1 D3NE: Nik Telkedzhiev, Range 1-1–Telk has the game to beat anyone in the country, but he has had his issues in the past, be them with the coach or with himself. Nik will have to be a lockdown #1 for Tufts this spring, as there’s no reason that he can’t be that guy. His fall results were average, beating Mbithi (Trin #2), Ellis (Bates #2) and Astrachan (Williams #6), but taking losses against Farrell (Midd #2/3) and Frons (Midd #3/4). If Tufts is going to think about moving up in the NESCAC, Telkedzhiev will need to step his game up a level from this fall.

#1 Insider: Nik Telkedzhiev, Range 1-1–When he is in the zone, this guy shouldn’t lose. Head case, tanks matches. This is a critical spot for the Bo’s to win routinely, which he should.

#2 D3NE: Rob Jacobson, Range 2-3–While Telkedzhiev has a smattering of mediocre wins and losses this fall, Jacobson has one great win and then a few other losses. Rob-Bob took down Planche (Bates #1) but also lost to Smolyar (Midd #1), Granoff (Brandeis #1), and Isaac Thylen (Babson #2). The Thylen loss was a bit surprising, as Thylen’s consistent game should be a productive matchup for Jacobson. Rob went from #6 in 2013 to #2 last year, and even played some #1 after Nik took his leave of absence. When Rob is playing well, he could be a nasty #2, the issue is he will also thrown in some stinkers. The Jumbos will need all parties at the top of their lineup to bring home the W’s if they are to challenge the top tier of the conference.

#2 Insider: Rob Jacobson, Range 2-3–made some big strides last year after a very unfortunate injury. Kid is a workhorse, but has trouble when playing bigger guys as he tries to outhit them. Puts too much pressure on himself to win, which can work to his disadvantage. This year could be a turning point for Rob, if he sticks to his game and continues to works as hard as in the past. I expect him to be in the top half of the lineup.

#3 D3NE: Jay Glickman, Range 2-4–What the heck happened to Mr. Glickman? Tufts’ original diaper dandy had a solid freshmen year at #’s 2/3, played sparingly at #1 last spring (without notching a win), and didn’t play a single match this fall. Rumor is that Jay has a history with the injury bug, and let’s all just hope he can stay healthy this spring. When healthy, he would be a very legitimate #3, and certainly help the Jumbos. If Glickman can stay healthy, it also helps the younger players by giving them a better chance to hold their own at the bottom of the lineup.

#3 Insider: Jay Glickman, Range 2-7–This is all dependent on how the Glickster comes back from abroad. He is coming off a rough year that was also hampered by injuries. The Jumbos will be at their best if he is near the top of the lineup, but I do not think Gregor will put him that high, or in the lineup at all, if he doesn’t show up ready to go. This is a different era and those recruiting stars next to his name no longer carry the same weight that they used to. He is going to need to prove a lot of people wrong to re-gain respect in the ‘cac.

#4 D3NE: Zain Ali, Range 3-6–Zain had a tremendous fall. He came in behind Rohan on the recruiting list, but he won the D-Flight at Middlebury, and took down Wang (MIT #2/3) and Einbinder (Amherst #4) at the ITA before losing to Farrell in the 3^rd round. After his hot start to the fall, Coach Gregor entered Zain in the A Flight at the Bates tournament, where he took an encouraging close loss to Reid (Colby #1) in the 1^st round. If Zain continues to improve, he could be the gem of the 3-stars

#4 Insider: Ben Battle, Range 4-8–Has the game to play with many talented players. Fitness was an issue last year due to injuries, but this kid has come out swinging and ready to go for this year. He trained 2x a day over the summer and is completely devoted to tennis. His impressive fall season has many believing that this could be his time to break through. It will be tough with a talented and deep lineup, but expect Battle to be getting playing time throughout the season.

#5 D3NE: Rohan Gupte, Range 3-7–Gupte had a great first tournament, taking down Schwartz (Bates #3/4) and Arguello (Brandeis #2/3) before pushing Green Sanderson (Skidmore #1) to a very tight two sets in the semis at Middlebury. Unfortunately, he didn’t play again this fall. Tufts’ lone 4-star recruit, there will be a fair amount of pressure on Mr. Gupte this spring. Luckily for him, the majority of the bottom of Tuft’s lineup will be made up of young guns. If Coach Gregor can get through to a couple of these young guys, my bet would bet that Gupte is one of them. Also, he’s gotta be one of the only NESCAC players from Nevada, right? Somebody tell me who else is from Nevada? Scoring wins over Telkedzhiev in USTA tournaments should count for something right (See Garrett Weinstein a few lines down).

#5 Insider: Zain Ali, Range 4-8–Talented freshman. Needs to put on some muscle and get in better shape. Very talented and see him as an instant contributor.

#6 D3NE: Ben Battle, Range 5-8–We saw very little of Mr. Battle last year, but what little we’ve seen this fall has been very encouraging. He took down Palmer Campbell (Midd #2/3), and Gil Roddy (Bowdoin #6/7), before eventually falling to Traff (Trin #4). The lack of experience will likely factor in, especially in the beginning of the season. If Battle’s (or Ali’s or Gupte’s for that matter) lack of experience does get the better of him, the lone senior will be waiting in the wings…

#6 Insider: Brian Tan, Range 4-8–Solid year last year with some notable wins including Palmer Cambell. Didn’t have a strong fall and probably would not be in the lineup if Wong were healthy. Still not completely sure but something tells me Btan

will find some mojo and squeak in the lineup as a senior. He will feel motivated because he knows there are plenty of people just behind him worthy of a spot.

#7 D3NE: Brian Tan, Range 5-9 —The lone senior. There is a lot of responsibility of Mr. Tan’s shoulders. Brian is one of my favorite guys in DIII, and that’s not only because of his Ojai picks/interview last spring (although that is a lot of it). He’s a genuinely nice kid and will work his butt off to make the most of his senior season. If he starts the season on the bench like these projections have him doing, he would be my perfect “spot starter”. He has the experience (playing anywhere from #1-4 last year) and the mentality needed. If Tufts were to make NESCACs or NCAAs, I would start Tan at 6 knowing he would do absolutely everything to try and get his team that point.

#7 Insider: Nick Cary, Range 4-8–Mr. Trinity shocked the world last year. Almost an instant start in Gantcher (Tufts’ indoor Courts) with his style of play. This team is very crowded at the bottom of the lineup, and he might end up the odd man out at times. I still expect him to play and especially have a spot in the dubs lineup.

#8 D3NE: Nick Cary, Range 6-10–Cary had a great Middlebury tournament, making the finals of the D-Flight, but all of his wins came against non-lineup players. My Insider seems to know something about Cary’s doubles play, and Nick backed that up with a B-Flight win at Bates to wrap up his fall. Cary does have the experience of playing some #6 last year, but I believe he will be more of a doubles specialist this spring.

#8 Insider: Rohan Gupte, Range 4-8–A bit of a wildcard after injury in fall. Highest ranked recruit, and obviously has a lot of talent. Not sure how the injury has affected him in the offseason, but he can either be an instant contributor or another odd man out. I still expect him to see some action and Gregor will certainly evaluate if he is worth the nod as a frequent starter. Gregor has too many options at this point, which works to the team’s advantage but not to Rohan’s.

#9 D3NE: Griffin Brockman, Range 6-10–Griffin was another Jumbo freshman with solid fall results. He might have scored one of the biggest ITA upsets with his 1^st round win over Mandel (Trinity #5/6). He also pushed Traff (Trinity #4) to a superbreaker at the Middlebury tournament. He did get rocked by Savage (Bowdoin #3-5) in the 2^nd round of ITAs. My guess is that he starts the season on the outside looking in, but Griffin should have an opportunity to try and play his way into the bottom of the lineup.

#9 Insider: Griffin Brockman, Range 5-10–Dismantled Ned Mandel this fall. Very talented. Will be battling it out for a 5-6 spot. Do not see him as an everyday starter but will get some playing in.

#10 D3NE: Danny Coran, Range 6-12–Shocker, another talented Tufts freshman with solid fall results. His wins over Bates young guys like Neufeld and Rosen don’t mean much at this point, but his semifinal win over Allen Jackson (Midd #6) is a different story. While he did fall in the finals of the Bates tournament to Pickering (Skidmore #3-4), a C Flight finals run in your first tournament is nothing to sneeze at. With Tufts’ embarrassment of candidates for the #6 spot, I doubt he’ll see much playing time to start the season, but you never know.

#10 Insider: Danny Coran, Range 5-10–Odd man out. Will likely play against the likes of Conn College etc. to give others some rest.

#11 D3NE: Garrett Weinstein, Range 6-12–The ITA website says that Weinstein hasn’t played in a match this fall, but luckily one of my Jumbo friends tipped me off that a lot of the Tufts team traveled up to Maine to play in a USTA tournament this past weekend. The draw can be found here: http://tennislink.usta.com/Tournaments/TournamentHome/Tournament.aspx?T=157918. Check out Lil’ Weinstein, beating the dude who beat Battle the round prior. Then he took Ellis (Bates #2) to 6-4 in the 3^rd set. Maybe GW was injured earlier this fall, or maybe he fell victim to the sheer number of talented young Jumbos, but this result is worth noting. So is Gupte’s victory over Telkedzhiev in the 3^rd round.

#12 D3NE: Justin Brogan, Range 6-12–Brogan definitely looks to be at least a year away, but a 3-star freshman needs some mention, even if it’s at the bottom of the bench to start the year.

Insider Doubles Analysis (You all know I don’t do dubs until the season starts Ah, the Jumbo’s weakness. I expect the teams to change a lot throughout the season, depending on early success. There is so much depth in this lineup that Gregor will not be afraid to mix and match in order to find the right combinations.

#1 dubs: Brian& Nik–Before Nik left the team last year, this duo was heating up, helping the Bo’s capture very crucial doubles points in competitive play. With Btan entering graduation and a revitalized Nik, I think that this team could provide as a “guaranteed win” for 3/4 of their matches as long as they keep their emotions in check.

#2 dubs: Cary & Battle–With Cary gaining experience and having great success last year in doubles, and Battle experiencing the big guns at 1 dubs, I think this team should click right away. They had a great run at the Middlebury tourney this fall, winning the whole B flight, and I see this team becoming headache for many NESCAC foe’s at #2.

#3 dubs: Rob & Jay–I see this as a “mini” stack, but also quite reasonable. Rob came off a great freshman year in dubs but struggled mightily last year paired with Wong at #2. Glickman is not known for his doubles and also struggled last year, going winless at 1 dubs. However, I think the experience at #1 will make him a better doubles player this year, assuming he is healthy and playing well.

Other possible doubles players: Zain Ali, Rohan Gupte, Griffin Brockman.

All three have a lot of talent that can spark the doubles lineup.

Schedule

http://gotuftsjumbos.com/sports/mten/2014-15/schedule

Best Case Scenario: The youth and the coaching just click everything into place. Tufts cruises by Denison, plays Pomona to a tight 5-4, and beats Cal Lu to finish their west coast swing 2-1. The Jumbos smoke Deis, take a few points from Amherst, and destroy the Bantams in their rival match 8-1 or 9-0. The Jumbo’s singles players hang with Midd and Emory, but fall short in both matches. Tufts rebounds and crushes Colby, Conn, and Washington & Lee. Here’s where we get to the positives of the best case scenario. Tufts upsets the Ephs, rolls over Bates, and takes down Bowdoin in a tight 5-4 match. This leaves the Jumbos with the #3 seed at NESCACs, where they beat Trinity/Bates/Wesleyan/whichever team gets the #6 seed, and get a rematch with #2 seed Midd in the semis. Realistically even as the #3 seed, they are still probably on the outside of NCAAs (as the first or 2^nd team out) so will need to beat Midd to make the tournament. Even in the best case scenario, the Jumbos still fall short of NCAAs, however they earn a top 12 ranking and set themselves up to make a real run in 2016.

Worst Case Scenario: Tufts squeezes by Denison, gets rocked by Pomona, and loses a tight match vs. Cal Lu, ending the Jumbos NCAA hopes in the first week of their season. The NESCAC elite roll past the Jumbos, Williams and Bowdoin take insurmountable leads after doubles and take comfortable wins over Tufts. At some point in the season either Telkedzhiev, Jacobson, Glickman, goes down with a season ending injury leaving the Jumbos vulnerable at the top of the lineup in addition to their doubles weaknesses. Tufts loses a 5-4 heartbreaker to both Brandeis and either Bates or Trinity, causing the Jumbos to miss out on NESCACs for the first time in 3 years. The Medford Men end the season outside the top #30 of the ITA, making their 2016 season that much more difficult.

Predictions: D3NE NESCAC Projection: 6^th/Insider NESCAC Projection: 5^th

Realistic Scenario/Analysis: Tufts will start their season with a couple of crucial California matches on their Spring Break trip. The Jumbos start in the middle of March vs. Denison (@CMS). This Denison team seems to be a shell of recent years, and I think this is the perfect first match for the Jumbos. Some players might be tested, but they should get a 7-2 win with relative ease. After playing Denison at CMS, Tufts will travel the 4 blocks to take on Pomona. PP seems to be a stronger version of Tufts. The Hens are deeper, and play stronger doubles. If Tufts can somehow upset the Hens, it puts them in a great position to shoot up the rankings and take an absurd amount of indirects as well (PP basically plays every team ranked between #5-20). Unfortunatley for the Jumbos, I think Pomona takes a doubles lead en route to a routine 6-3 or 7-2 win. Finally Tufts heads up to Thousand Oaks to take on Cal Lu. While Cardenas is one of my NCAA Individuals front-runners, I see this as a match Tufts can/should win. That win would also help the Jumbos shoot up the ITA rankings (remember they are currently all the way down at #29).

Upon their return from California, Tufts will take on Brandeis in a classic trap match. With a match with perennial favorite and defending national champion Amherst looming a few days later, it would behoove the Jumbos not to overlook their local counterparts. The Judges seem to be a slightly less talented version of the Jumbos. Both teams struggle with doubles, and have a lot of young talent. While both teams are ranked right around #30 in the country, I think Tufts cruises at the bottom of the singles lineup, and takes down Brandeis. While taking down Amherst is a nice thought, I just don’t see it happening this year, and I think the same holds true for the Jumbos back to back matches with Emory and Middlebury. Those matches are nice, because there’s no harm in losses, although realistically Tufts will need at least one of them if they are to make NCAAs (quite a long shot given the recent Pool-C decrease). Sandwiched between Amherst and Middlebury is one of the Jumbos most important matches of the year. Tufts and Trinity always seem to play dramatic matches (even if the score isn’t always that close). Last year, Trinity took down the Jumbos in a 6-3 match that featured 4 3-set singles matches. This year, Tufts is out for revenge and I think they’ll find it. Both teams struggle in doubles, and Trinity is deep like Tufts, but the Jumbos should (emphasis on the should) be stronger at the top of the lineup. Don’t be surprised to see some fireworks here though, as the loser of this match will need help to make NESCACs.

After Midd and Emory, Tufts gets a string of matches where the Jumbos should be favored. Reid and Murad should provide a tough test from Colby, but Tufts should move on from Colby and Conn with little trouble. Washington and Lee could provide a bit more of a test, as the Generals take a late NE trip in the end of April. I see Tufts sweeping this trio of matches, setting up 3 humongous matches to conclude the regular season. The same day as W&L, Tufts will play host to Williams. That scheduling seems iffy to me. It’s awfully cocky to take on the Generals while resting some players for Williams, but it seems pretty stupid to play important lineup members in the morning match before one of the most important matches of the year. Williams should have a doubles edge (though that’s based on nothing but history of each program, we’ll see how the teams shake out as the season progresses), but I can see Tufts competing with Williams throughout their singles lineup. The big question here is the Williams’ freshmen, coincidentally, check back later this week for my Williams preview! I like Williams in a close match, 5-4. A few days after their double bout with W&L and Williams, Tufts will host Bates and travel up to Bowdoin in a three-day span. Tufts has had trouble with Bates over the past few years, but I think they’re just too talented this year. As long as Bates doesn’t sweep the doubles, I think Tufts will come away with a hard-fought 5-4 or 6-3 win. That would be huge, because it means that no matter what happens in the Bowdoin match, Tufts would be guaranteed a spot at NESCACs. The Bowdoin match should be yet another interesting match, but (like Pomona) I think Bowdoin is a better version of the Jumbos. Their young talent is better, and they actually have a bit of depth this year. Bowdoin played some horrendous doubles last year, but if either team was going to play better dubs this year I’d bet on Bowdoin over Tufts. I think Bowdoin sends Tufts packing to a #5/6 seed at NESCACs. The reason there is some doubt in their seed is because there is a noticeably missing match from the Jumbos schedule. Where is Wesleyan? That match would be sick. Young talent for dayzzz, and the most likely future challengers for a top 4 spot. Overall I think this is a crucial year for Tufts. Even if they’re a year or two away from top 10-15, they have to get to 20 before they can think about those loftier goals.