Bowdoin 2014-2015 Season Preview
I thought I would be able to write this preview during the football game today, but the NFC game was too intense and the AFC game was too perfect. One time, for all you NE readers/Pats fans, ON TO SEATTLE!!!! I’m surprised I’m still focused enough to do this on a night where Brady’s Bunch is headed back to the super bowl, but what can I say? I’m a happy dude. I’ll try not to let that influence my Bowdoin predictions, but if you end up seeing Bowdoin=National Champion in flashy fonts, you’ll know what to blame (same goes for grammar mistakes). For now, let’s get to the tennis.
Bowdoin made a resurgent run in Coach Smith’s 1st season back in 2011-2012, they made the NESCAC finals and came within mere games of getting to the National Semifinals. The Polar Bears were poised to become a regular top-10 squad, when Goldfish Gate went down. This has been talked about ad nauseam, so if you are new and you don’t know what I’m talking about, just ask a friend or teammate. Hopefully this will be the last time I mention it all year. After the suspended season, nobody really knew what to make of Bowdoin in 2013-2014. They played terrible doubles, but also had lots of talent at all 6 singles spots. They were up and down, beating Pomona but also losing to Bates, and their solid singles were not enough to overcome what seemed to be a constant doubles deficit. Bowdoin fans have been waiting for this year, as a truly talented crop of freshmen make their way up to the great white north. Let’s hope Coach Smith can get them going quickly, and Bowdoin can once again challenge for something more than NESCAC mediocrity.
QUICK BOWDOIN FACTS
Coach: Conor Smith, 4th year
Location: Brunswick, Maine
Preseason Power Ranking: #17
Preseason ITA Regional Ranking: #4
Projected End of Season Power Ranking: #13
Projected ITA Regional Ranking: #3
Twitter Handle: @PolarBearTennis. “Just another group of guys living the D3 Dream.” (great tagline)
Key Additions: Gilbert Roddy (4-star, Ma), Luke Tercek (4-star DC), Kyle Wolfe (4-star, Ct)
Key Departures: Sam King (#3 singles/#1 doubles) Chris Lord (#4 singles/#3 doubles)
Most positive extreme OVERREACTION I’ve heard during the fall: These Bowdoin freshmen look legit. With Amherst and Middlebury on down years, the Polar Bears could actually win the NESCAC.
Most negative extreme OVERREACTION I’ve heard during the fall: Too much rests in the hands of the freshmen. They are still at least a year away from being relevant in the NESCAC, let alone nationally.
Reaction 2 Reactions: We need to find some middle ground (personally, I’ve always thought Anakin and Obi-Wan should have just shared the middle ground) between these two overreactions. While it’s true that Herst and Midd might not be as formidable as the past couple years, both teams are still very good, and likely a notch above this Polar Bear squad. That being said, Bowdoin has as much potential as any team in the conference. If one of (let alone more than one of) their freshmen produces this year, they should easily remain in the NESCAC top-4. If all three produce (however unlikely), well then we may have to add another team to the heavyweight title fight.
Projected Singles Lineup
#1 Noah Bragg (Sr), Range #1-#2: Noah (#Humble) Bragg should have the top spot in the Polar Bear lineup this spring. Though he’ll have to battle Trinka for the spot, Bragg is coming off a good fall where he took down teammate Savage, Carpenter (Trinity #1) and pushed Smolyar (Midd #1) to a super breaker. Noah also has the advantage of a full season at #1 under his belt. Yes, he did have a tough stretch last April where he lost 7 straight matches, but every single one was to solid competition, and he took a set off Fritz, two different times! Noah hits a very clean ball and his groundstrokes are the definition of solid. Don’t let those glasses distract you (what are they, prescription? Sunglasses? A combination?) Personally Noah, I think you’d look great in some red contact lenses, Kyle Vanden Bosch style, but I digress. In a year where the region lost many of it’s top players, Bragg should be one of the preseason favorites to finish in the top-8 and represent the region at individual NCAAs in May.
#2 Luke Trinka (Jr), Range #1-#2: Tapioca Trinka took the region by storm in the fall of 2013. After a freshman year of being mainly a doubles specialist, Trinka came out of nowhere and won the ITA. He followed up his fall with a very solid spring at #2. Trinka is likely the only challenger to Bragg for the top spot in the singles lineup, but I think it’s a safe bet that he’ll start the spring in the more submissive position at #2. If he, for whatever reason, spent his fall training abroad somewhere, it might be a different story. However, 98% of D3 athletes (and that figure might even be low) barely even touch their equipment while enjoying their semester abroad. Trinka also played #1 doubles with King at the end of the year, and his big serve/forehand (especially seeing as he’s not the biggest dude around) should be enough to keep him near the top of the doubles lineup this year. Trinka and Savage have a history, and could be good partners, but I would consider pairing Luke with whichever freshman has shown to have the most doubles skills. Just saying, it would be sweet to have a doubles team of LTx2. It would be sweet to have a KWx2 team also. So many possibilities, so few people caring.
#3 Chase Savage (Jr), Range #3-#6: OK, I’ll say it again. After Bragg and Trinka this lineup is anybody’s guess. But since I get paid the big bucks to make hypothetical prognostications, I’m saying Savage starts the year at #3. He had the best ITA out of all the Polar Bears, and I know Wolstencraft has been dealing with a nagging leg injury of some sort. Then again, Savage didn’t play at Bates either, so maybe he has some injury issue too? I’m giving Savage and Wolstencraft the pre-season edge over the freshmen because they have the experience factor. As for which of the upperclassmen gets the call at #3, Savage just seems to be the more consistent player of the two. Wolstencraft has the flash but can also look like he’d rather be home knitting than on court. Honestly, it would be a very easy mini-stack to throw a freshman at #3 and keep your experience lower in the lineup. Scratch everything I’ve said, let’s bring back Peter Davis to play #1 and move everyone down. Sound ok? Great.
#4 Kyle Wolstencraft (Sr), Range #3-6: As I said, Wolly Wolsty has been dealing with some form of leg injury. He didn’t play a lick of singles all fall and while Bowdoin is slightly deeper this year than last year, a nagging injury to an upperclassman could still prove fatal to the Polar Bears’ hopes of a conference championship. Kyle will also need to regain his doubles form from early on in his career. He and Caplan looked like a legitmate #1 team for almost a year and a half. Speaking of Doug Caplan, what happened to that guy? He didn’t play a single match last spring and is no longer listed on the Bowdoin roster. Any info would be appreciated. Anyways, Wolstencraft has a track record and hits too good a tennis ball to be down at the bottom of the lineup at the beginning of the year, but if Coach Smith can help him find his way back down to #5, he should be one of the country’s best.
#5 Luke Tercek (Fr) Range #3-#7: Though I’ve said that #3-7 seems like a toss up at this point in January, I have Tercek above his fellow freshmen. He played in the A flight at Bates, while Wolfe and Roddy played B flight. Apparently Coach Smith sees something in his lanky freshmen. While Tercek doesn’t have the big name wins this fall, his losses have been solid. He took Zykov (probable #2 for Amherst) to 3 sets at the ITA, pushed fellow frosh phenom Noah Farrell at Bates, (probable #2/3 for Midd). The buzz from NE Coaches is that Tercek shows a ton of potential and I’ve heard from two different coaches that he could play and win immediately in the middle of this lineup. He’ll need to prove it to me, but it’s still nice praise for a rookie. Tercek’s size should also make him a factor in Bowdoin’s doubles lineup, which to put it bluntly, needs work.
#6 Kyle Wolfe (Fr), Range #3-#7: Regional coaches are also high on Mr. Wolfe. Kyle won the B flight at Bates in the fall, taking down Frons (probable Midd #3-5), Leung (Skid #2) and Traff (Trin #4) all in straight sets. While he also fell in the 1st round of the ITA, he pushed Arguello (probable Brandeis #2) to 7-5 in the 3rd Kyle and Luke seem to have put some space between them and lineup competitors, but lots of things can happen over the winter. Wolfe also seems primed to start in the doubles lineup. He played some with both Bragg and Wolstencraft this fall, and should be able to help the Bowdoin weakness.
- Gilbert Roddy (Fr), Range #4-#7: Roddy is the 3rd piece of Bowdoin’s prized recruiting class. Roddy notched a nice straight set win over Epstein at Bates (probable Skid #5/6), but fell to Battle (probable Tufts non-starter) in an epic 15-13 superbreaker in the quarters. Like Tercek and Wolfe, Roddy lost in the 1st round of the ITA, but put up a respectable 3&4 score against Liu (probable Wesleyan #2/3). With how close these guys are to each other, Roddy could end up getting some significant playing time in March and April. It’s possible that Coach Smith will try out something of a rotating bottom of his lineup at first, so that each freshmen can gain match experience, but I believe Roddy will start the year as Bowdoin’s 7th
- Hugh Mo (So), Range #6-8: Hugh played some at the bottom of the Polar Bear lineup last year, but he seems to be the odd-man out at this point. While he does have some college match experience (which is more than the three freshmen can say), my guess is that Hugh won’t get a chance to prove himself in match play unless there is an extreme learning curve in Brunswick (that, or a couple injuries).
SCHEDULE
http://athletics.bowdoin.edu/sports/mten/2014-15/schedule
Best-Case Scenario: Bowdoin comes out of the gate flying, soaring to a 6-1 Cali trip with a close 5-4 loss to CMU. The wins over PP, Redlands, and Whitman, help them get indirects over basically every other Pool-C competitor. They prove Wesleyan still needs another year, blank Brandeis, and exact revenge on Bates. The play Amherst down to the wire, dropping a close 5-4 or 6-3 decision, smash Colby, and lose another tight match, this time to Middlebury. Taking the positives from the close losses, Bowdoin knocks off W&L, routines Tufts, and finally gets the close win they haven’t had since March ending the regular season with a 5-4 win in Williamstown. As the #3 seed at NESCACs, Bowdoin handles Tufts again, and this time turns the tables on host Middlebury upsetting them in the semis. Amherst gets the better of the Polar Bears in the NESCAC final, but Bowdoin locks up one of the 5 pool C bids, gets a #2 seed, and travels down to Mary Wash where they are the #2 seed in Emory’s region. They beat Mary Wash to make the sweet 16, but fall to Emory’s experience 5-3. The freshmen gain wonderful experience, and combine with next year’s recruiting class (already one 4-star and two 3-stars) to once again challenge for the top 10.
Worst-Case Scenario: The freshmen are not up to snuff. Bowdoin stumbles on their spring break trip, losing matches to CMU, PP, Redlands, and Whitman. They then lose to either Wesleyan or Tufts, just get by Bates and Brandeis, get stomped on by Amherst, Midd, and Williams, sneak into NESCACs as the #6 seed, and get blasted again by the Ephs, proving to me once and for all that Greenberg is the man. No NCAAs, no nothing, and the Polar Bears barely hold their top-20 ranking.
Realistic Prediction: As always, let’s find that middle ground. I really do think Bowdoin can contend for the conference if all the stars align, I’m just not ready to wager on that happening this year. I think they go 4-3 on their Cali trip, hold off Tufts, and Wesleyan, and their match with Williams at the end of the year will be for the #3 spot at NESCACs, and an outside shot at a Pool C bid. As of this second I can’t decide between Bowdoin and Williams, so I’ll leave that for the end of the schedule analysis section. I’ll predict (bc we all know this is what you’ve been reading for, this is the proverbial team preview money shot) Bowdoin has a successful year, moves up into the top 15, but gets left hanging outside of NCAAs due to the decrease in Pool-C spots.
Schedule Analysis: Like many East Coast teams, Bowdoin’s first important matches will come on their spring break trip to Cali. The Polar Bears have the luxuary of a two week spring break, and therefore can space their matches out better over their trip. Bowdoin will not be participating in the Stag-Hen this year, but their matches will be just as important (if not more so). As I said in the intro, the Pool-C change hurts the Polar Bears as much as any team in the country. Almost every single direct match against Pool-C competition could mean the difference between playing for a national championship and spending Ivies slobbering drunk and whining about what could have been (actually, from what I hear, it’s a pretty good consolation prize). Bowdoin starts their trip with a warm up match vs. Chapman, and then takes on CMU and Pomona on back to back days. Last year fitness seemed to take it’s toll on the Polar Bears, so let’s hope the boys have been taking their training regiments seriously this offseason. These two matches might well decide the fate of the Polar Bears’ season (barring NESCAC domination or collapse). It’s simple, win them both, and you vault into the top 10. Lost them both, and you’re staring at an uphill battle that would likely bewilder Lance Armstrong any Tour de France champion (Freaky Floyd Landis?). If they can spit those two matches, they’ll still be in the hunt, but they will be under dogs in both matches. After those two toughies, the Polar Bears get a depleted Whittier team. Coach Belletto will have his boys ready for a fight, but Bowdoin should prove too strong.
The second ½ of the Bowdoin trip is no less daunting than the first, with matches against a top 15 caliber team in Redlands (direct Pool C contender), a top 15 caliber team in Whitman (looking to prove themselves outside of their pitiful conference), and a NESCAC rival (also top 20 caliber team) in Trinity Ct. Bowdoin should be able to handle Trinity without too much trouble, but Redlands in the desert and Coach Northam’s boys on back to back days should be a real struggle. If Bowdoin can get out of their Cali trip at 5-2, they’ll still be alive in the Pool-C hunt, though they’ll likely need 6-1 to feel they have a decent shot. I see 4-3 being the most likely outcome, but the beginning of the week should be a great barometer for the rest of the Polar Bears’ season.
After Cali, the Polar Bears will have a highly anticpated date with the upstart Wesleyan Cardinals at the end of March. NESCAC seeding, a top 15 ranking, and maybe even Pool-C hopes could be on the line for both teams. Both teams have plenty of young talent, but maybe 2014 quieted my Wesleyan fetish just enough, I like Bowdoin in a tough 5-4 win. After Wesleyan, Brandeis and Bates could present a few issues, but I think Bowdoin should handle both this year. It’s important to note that Bates actually beat Bowdoin last year, but considering that Bowdoin’s singles lineup simply looks like a better version of Bates’, I like the Polar Bears there. After the 2nd tier of the NESCAC, Bowdoin will travel to Amherst and host Middlebury within the same week (the Polar Bears will also travel to Colby in the middle of the week but I don’t foresee that being any issue.) In order for Bowdoin to beat Herst or Midd, they will need a doubles lead, something that was extremely rare for them in 2013-2014. Both teams are beatable, but unless this freshmen crop proves fruitful they are still a level down from both teams.
Bowdoin’s season winds down with a home date vs. Washington and Lee (ummm, what?) whom they should handle, and then a home match with Tufts before traveling to Williamstown to end the regular season at Williams. Those last two matches will also be huge for the Polar Bears. However, if Bowdoin has taken care of Bates, Trinity, and Wesleyan, I think they should be able to handle Tufts’s depth as well. It’s no secret; the key to the 2nd level of the NESCAC will be doubles. They’re all deep and getting deeper, but if Coach Smith can use his freshmen to help their doubles, Bowdoin should remain near the top of the conference. While Williams should be stronger than Tufts and Wesleyan, I think this Bowdoin team is certainly capable of taking them down. In fact, screw it, let’s go with the upset. I, D3NE, am taking Bowdoin to beat Williams and end the region in the top 3. Let’s go freshies, don’t let Uncle D3NE down.