2015 Season Preview: #12 (#10 ITA) Williams Ephs

Williams 2015 Season Preview

DAT EPH
DAT EPH

We have come to a critical juncture in the history Williams Tennis. That obviously sounds dramatic, but let’s take a look at the Eph’s few seasons since Coach Greenberg took the helm: 2010=11th, 2011=4th, 2012=3rd, 2013=1st, 2014=10th. We knew there was going to be a regression after their National Championship win in 2013, they did graduate 5 starters, but a drop from #1-#10 is the largest fall a National Champion has taken since at least 2000 (when the online ITA rankings were published pictures of books. Seriously, check this out, http://www.itatennis.com/Assets/ita_assets/pdf/Rankings/1999+Rankings++1.pdf, that’s insane. My challenge to all you nerd readers is to find me a championship team that had a bigger drop off than the 2013-2014 Ephs. I don’t want this to come off as too harsh. The talent level in DIII is clearly far higher than its ever been, and I can’t think of a single championship team that graduated 5 singles players immediately after winning it all (but I’m not fact checking here…). However, in looking back at all the recent champs, I found that they all have one thing in common: they were in striking distance from the beginning of the year. Considering how damn difficult it is to even make NCAAs this year (Pool C grumble grumble), it’s going to be very difficult for NESCAC, SCIAC, and UAA teams to really move THAT far up and down the rankings (not impossible, just more difficult than in years past).

Williams has outstanding academics, a storied tennis program, and (in my opinion) a top 5 coach. They shouldn’t have too much trouble recruiting, which makes their 2011 swing and miss all the more confusing. Perhaps Greenberg was honest and told recruits that they likely wouldn’t get much playing time behind the previous couple monster years, but for whatever reason, this year’s Eph team will not have a single starting senior. The young freshmen (Williams does have a top 10 recruiting class this year) will team up with the numerous sophomores and juniors to try and lead Williams back into the hunt for a National Championship. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I don’t see the NE continuing its recent NCAA dominance this year (sad face) but if Williams is to gear up for a 2016 run, they need to move back into the top 8 in 2015. Unfortunately for the Williamstown faithful, that is significantly easier said than done. Williams’ schedule, like most Pool C contenders, is brutal. I could easily see this team ending the year around 8, but they could also drop down into the 13-17 range. Let’s look at a few Williams facts before we get to deeper analysis of the lineup and schedule.

QUICK WILLIAMS FACTS

Coach: Dan Greenberg, 6th year

Location: Williamstown, Massachusetts

Preseason Power Ranking: #12

Preseason ITA Regional Ranking: #3

Projected End of Season Power Ranking: #14

Projected ITA Regional Ranking: #4

Twitter Handle: @EphsTennis. (One of the better accounts, though it uses new nicknames for players basically every match)

Key Additions: Brian Grodecki (4-star, Pa), Sachin Raghaven (4-star NY), Jordan Sadowski (3-star, Ca).

Key Departures: Matt Micheli (#1 singles/#1 doubles)

Most positive extreme OVERREACTION I’ve heard during the fall: “Bringing in a top-10 class should ease Micheli’s departure and Williams should be significantly better than last year.”

Most negative extreme OVERREACTION I’ve heard during the fall: “While Micheli is only one guy, he is basically irreplaceable. The rest of the 2014 Williams team was mediocre at best, and they were lucky to stay as high in the rankings as they did. If the Ephs aren’t careful, they’ll wind up falling back to the 2nd tier of the NESCAC for good.”

Reaction 2 Reactions: Let’s be honest, this Williams team is a total mystery to anyone outside of Williamstown. The Ephs didn’t play in any of the fall regional tournaments except for ITAs, and we didn’t get to see any of the freshmen play singles there either. While we were lucky enough to see a team result, an 8-1 win against Vassar, it doesn’t really tell us anything about this Williams team. Losing Micheli will undoubtedly hurt the Ephs, but we won’t know how badly until we see the prowess of the freshmen, and the improvement of dangerous players like Shastri, and Raventos at some point down the road.

Projected Singles Lineup

  1. Conrad Harron (So), Range #1-2: Even though he didn’t have a great fall, last year showed that the Blonde Bomber (nickname pending approval) can ball. He made the finals of the ITA as a freshman in 2013, and was a consistent point at #3 before having some solid results at #2 including wins over Trinka (projected Bowdoin #2), and twice over Sherpa (graduated Skidmore #2,). Even his losses were encouraging, 3-sets to Brantner Jones (graduated Midd #2) and 3-sets to Chris Dale (graduated Amherst #2). So C-Rad’s sophomore fall doesn’t worry me too much. His 3-set loss to Murad (projected Colby #2) at the first round of ITAs and superbreaker win over Litsky (Vassar #1) are not horrible results by any stretch. However, if Williams is to be successful this year, they will need to find consistent points somewhere in their lineup. Before this fall I was leaning towards Harron being that guy, now we’ll just have to wait and see.
  2. Rohan Shastri (So) Range #1-#3: Unlike Harron, Shastri had a very encouraging fall. He was certainly favored over Cooper (Vassar #2) in the dual match, but a 1&1 pounding was a very nice way to start the fall. Rohan followed it up at the ITA with an upset 1st round win over Palmer Campbell (Midd #2/3), and pushed #1 seed and eventual champion Solimano (Amherst #1) to a 7-6 7-6 grueling round of 16 match. Shastri started last spring’s campaign sidelined by an injury, and was placed directly at #3 upon his DIII return. Greenberg has full confidence in Local-Ro, and after this fall we all should too. #2 will be a higher level, but I believe that Shastri is ready to make the jump. Shastri should also be a doubles fixture, partnering with…
  3. Jose Raventos (Jr), Range #2-#5: Like his doubles partner (the combo is aptly named Rosé), The Conquistador (nickname pending approval) will have to step his game up this year. Jose played most of last season at the bottom of the Ephs lineup, and while he did have his best results at #6, he played the most consistent tennis on the team. He went 13-3 vs DIII competition and his losses came to Yaraghi (Amherst #3), Smolyar (Midd #1), and Pereverzin (graduated CMS #6). Each of those losses came against one of the top players (at that number) in the country. This fall, Raventos drew Yaraghi again this fall in the first round of ITAs, and lost in two close sets. However Jose’s fall wasn’t all bad, he and Shastri won a round of doubles, and he steamrolled Udine (double bagel) at #3 in the Ephs’ dual match with Vassar. Like Shastri, if Jose can win the majority of the Ephs’ “toss up matches” (Pomona, Redlands, Bowdoin, maybe even Midd) then Williams should be in great shape.
  4. Howard Weiss (Jr), Range #3-#7: As he is now one of the oldest members of the team, I think I’m finally ready to shed the Lil’ Weiss nickname. After Micheli’s departure, Big Howie (nickname pending approval) is the only remaining singles starter from the 2013 national championship team. However, Weiss’ 2014 was a roller coaster that saw him drop from #2 to #5. His season included wins against Yasgoor (Pomona #1) and Zykov (Amherst #2), but also included losses to Steerman (Skidmore #6) and Mountifield (Midd #5) at the end of they year. Howard’s fall picked up right where his spring left off, dropping a tight straight set match to Juan Felipe Vaso (Vassar #3/4) and losing to Jackson in the first round of the ITA (Midd #6/7). While both singles matches were close, Weiss will need to do something to get his mojo working again. He could be a top ½ of the lineup player, or could slide all the way out of it.
  5. Alex Schidlovsky (Jr), Range #4-7: Alex slots in at #5 in the projected Ephs lineup, and any coach would be very happy to have a talented player like Schidlovsky at the bottom of his or her lineup. Alex cruised past his Vassar opponent, 2&0, and teamed with the freshman Grodecki for a #1 doubles victory. Schidlovsky has always been a big doubles player, and played #1 doubles with Meyer during the Eph’s national championship run. Alex was a solid #4 last season, but took a couple of losses that he and the Ephs can’t afford this spring. Another year of development and playing further down in the lineup can only mean good things for Alex’s 2015 prospects
  6. Brian Astrachan (Jr) Range #4-#8: I’ve always thought of Astrachan and Schidlovsky as being very similar types of players. Though that’s a bit of a stretch, they’re both juniors who played doubles when Williams hoisted the trophy, and they both should be really good bottom of the lineup players. Astro didn’t start the 2014 spring season in the singles lineup, but made his debut at the end of March and never looked back. Brian should feature prominently in the doubles lineup, and should be an anchor at the bottom of the Ephs lineup.
  7. Brian Grodecki/Sachin Raghavan/Jordan Sadowsky (Fr) Range #4-10: Ok, D3AS will call this a cop-out, but seeing as he always stops at 6 guys I don’t feel too badly about it. We haven’t seen any of Greenberg’s freshmen play a lick of singles. They’re all highly touted, and while Grodecki was the highest rated of the three, that currently means less than Katy Perry’s left shark (and I don’t mean the dancer). All three guys played doubles in the dual match with Vassar, and all three helped bring home the sweep. It would be foolish to read too far into one doubles pro-set, so for now I’ll just say that three froshketeers (nickname pending approval) certainly have a role to play in this year’s squad. It could be in doubles, at the bottom of the singles lineup, or even stepping up in case of an injury, at least one of these three freshmen (and likely more than one) will get some significant playing time this spring.

SCHEDULE

http://ephsports.williams.edu/sports/mten/2014-15/schedule

Best-Case Scenario: Williams comes out strong and takes three of four DIII west coast matches (excluding CMS). Even with a close loss to Wash U, Williams downs Skidmore and finds a way to beat Middlebury at Middlebury. Although Amherst will take down the Ephs, Wesleyan, Tufts, and Bowdoin prove to be too young, Bates and Trinity prove to be too shallow and Williams wins all five NESCAC matches. Williams enters NESCACs as the #2 seed and top 8 in the country. They take down Midd again in the NESCAC semis before pushing Amherst to a 5-4 final. Williams gets one of the coveted five Pool C spots, earning a low #1 seed. The Ephs get out of their region, before drawing CMS or Wash U in the quarterfinal round and bow out. Williams ends the year at #7 in the country and uses the experience factor to go on and bring the 2016 national championship back to the Northeast.

Worst-Case Scenario: Williams drops close matches to Pomona, and Redlands, barely gets by GAC before getting stomped by CMS. 1-3 turns into 1-4 when Wash U rolls through Williamstown. The Ephs still get their revenge over Skidmore, but get beaten relatively badly by Midd before dropping a 5-4 heartbreaker at Wesleyan. A 7-2 win over Conn precedes a 8-1 drubbing at the hands of the rival Jeffs. Williams still beats Tufts, Trinity, and Bates, but all are close matches. Bowdoin takes a doubles lead on the Ephs and never looks back. Williams earns a #5 seed at NESCACs, and loses in the 1st round to either Wesleyan or Bowdoin. The Ephs drop all the way down to #20 in the country, marking the largest ranking in school history.

Realistic Prediction/Schedule Analysis: Williams’ first matches come against a couple of non DIII opponents on their spring break trip towards the end of March. After those warm up matches, The Ephs go to Pomona and Redlands later on their trip. These matches will undoubtedly shape the rest of Williams’ season. Both of these matches are huge for all teams involved, but before seeing any tennis you have to give some edge to the California teams because they will have been playing other Pool-C contending schools over the past month. By the time these teams play, we’ll have a better idea of the lineups, but right now I’d say Pomona avenges a brutal 5-4 loss from last year with a close win of their own, before the Ephs squeak by a tough Redlands team. After the early two matches, Williams will take on the Gustavus at a neutral Californian site, and travel to CMS to take on the Stags. GAC is not nearly so scary away from their bubble, and seeing as Williams tends to play very solid doubles as well I think they handle the Gusties. The Stags are a different beast. You’d be a fool to pick against them until NCAAs this year (and even then…who knows). Williams is the type of team that could pose some threat to CMS, because they play good dubs, but I like CMS in a somewhat comfortable 6-3 or 7-2 win.

After California, the Ephs waste no time in jumping back into things, hosting another final four favorite in Wash U. I know home courts mean something, but Wash U should be too much for the Ephs. After Wash U, Williams hosts Skidmore in what has quickly developed into a small rivalry. Unfortunately for Thoroughbred fans, they simply don’t have the talent to challenge the Ephs. In fact, I think Williams comes out firing and exacts revenge with a 9-0 throttling. After Skidmore, Williams will play their entire NESCAC schedule in 18 days. In those 18 days, Williams will play 7 matches starting with playing at Middlebury. Midd seems like a more experienced version of Williams, but who knows, maybe that will turn out to be a bad thing. For now, I like the Panthers in a tight match. A few days after Midd, Williams will head down to Wesleyan for a very interesting match. Until I see the team results from the Cards, I can’t choose them here, but this match could definitely be close.

A week later, the Ephs hit their toughest stretch, playing 5 NESCAC matches in 8 days. Williams travels to Amherst and Tufts before hosting Trinity, Bowdoin, and Bates to close out their regular season. I still believe Amherst to be the best team in the conference, and even though Amherst/Williams matches always bring a little extra heat, I think the Jeffs should be able to beat the Ephs. The Jumbos certainly think they’re ready to take on the Ephs, but I don’t. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, Williams plays good doubles and they should use that strength to coast to and hold on to leads over both Tufts and Trinity. While Bates plays good doubles too, Williams should be favored at every singles spot except for #1. The most important matches that Williams will play all season are their first (Pomona) and their penultimate match, vs. Bowdoin. This match will likely be for 3rd in the NESCAC, and could be for the final Pool C spot (though it seems unlikely that both teams will still be in contention). I took Bowdoin in my Polar Bears preview, and while I’m tempted to pull a D3Regional, I’ll stick to my guns. That would leave Williams as the 4th seed at NESCACs, and likely around 12-15 in the country. While I’m sure Coach Greenberg and the boys want to win this year, I hope they can keep a realistic perspective and keep in mind that no matter what happens this year, they have a fun 2016 season in store.

7 thoughts on “2015 Season Preview: #12 (#10 ITA) Williams Ephs

  1. D3AtlanticSouth

    This is a pretty important preview now that we have some clarity on Pool C. I wonder where Williams ends up.

    By the way, I didn’t call you out as putting freshmen as a cop-out. Bad prediction there.

  2. D3_Dad

    If Williams want to go back to top 5, they have to set aside more budget for Coach Greenberg to recruit top talents at some national or super national tournaments. Coaches Hansen and Tee have been everywhere. I am sure they have also sent out more recruiting emails!

    1. Matt

      That seems like a gratuitous exclamation mark; not sure why the relative frequency of recruiting emails would inspire such enthusiasm on your end, especially when the remark is so speculative.

      1. D3_Dad

        My apology for making a rather speculative remark regarding recruiting emails! I admit it’s too much an extension from my family experience only.

  3. D3AtlanticSouth

    2010 Middlebury graduated 5 players.

    1. Andrew

      The 2010 Midd team graduated 6 players if you count their doubles specialist (he played #3 doubles). They only returned 1 player for 2011, though he did play #1 singles.

      1. D3 Northeast

        And he developed a sick stache. But you’re absolutely correct. Thank you

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