ASouth: Here at the blog, we always look to expand our horizons. Today, we have recruited an anonymous writer that wanted to give their take on the Women’s bracket, because we haven’t had as much Women’s coverage this year as the Men’s. I don’t want to steal any thunder, so without further ado, here comes another anonymous blog post!
Anon: Since the men’s bracket has been getting some great coverage (shoutout to D3Central for his two three articles in a day), I thought I would try and even things about a bit by giving some national-level coverage to the women’s bracket. This bracket is easily the weirdest that I’ve seen during my time following DIII women’s tennis, and we’ve got some regions that are really imbalanced. I’ll be stealing the Guru’s Q&A format for this article because I think it touches on all the important ramifications of the bracket. Enough banter, let’s get to the good stuff.
10) What about the bracket initially pops out?
Without question, it’s the DePauw region. Since moving to the NCAC in 2012, DePauw has had to tough it out as a #2 seed in regionals hosted by Wash U and Carnegie Mellon. This year, despite a lower seed than both of the above teams, the Tigers have found themselves as a 1 seed with the 2 and 3 seeds ranked #26 and #28. I understand the need to have two central regions (the other hosted at Chicago), but why does Wash U (#11) get placed in a region of death instead of being driving to DePauw to be a #1 seed? Instead, we get a region with #2 overall Emory at #12 Sewanee, and Wash U as an unhappy 2 seed. How do we have a region containing 3 teams with higher rankings than DePauw?
9) What is the most intriguing regional?
One thing that this bracket gives us is fantastic Sweet 16, and even Round of 32, matchups. Sewanee vs. Wash U should be a barnburner in the Emory region, but the winner will undoubtedly be outmatched playing the Eagles the following day. Very tough draw for both those teams—in the right regional they would challenge for a trip to Nationals.
There are two and a half regions that should give us great Sweet 16 matchups as well. Amherst-Johns Hopkins is going to be a thriller. Hopkins had a fantastic Indoors win this year, though they struggled a bit in the Fab 5 tournament and lost a tight 5-4 match to Washington & Lee. Regardless, they absolutely belong in the second tier of teams (behind Williams-Emory) and should challenge the Jeffs. Amherst just ran through the NESCAC grinder to end up with the #4 overall seed, but there’s no rest for the weary. Keep your eye on the twitter updates for this one.
The other strong Sweet 16 matchup is between Bowdoin and Middlebury. The Polar Bears dispatched the Panthers easily during the regular season by sweeping doubles, and Midd is going to have to take at least 2 of those if they want a chance at pulling off the upset. These two teams are very familiar with each other, and it should be a war in singles if Midd takes that doubles lead. Tough break for the Panthers—they could make a case for being a 1 seed in a different region but given the strength of the NESCAC this year there was nowhere else to put them. Still, I’m sure they would have rather drawn Amherst whom they know they can beat.
I say two and a half because I refuse to dignify the DePauw region by calling it a whole. DePauw did lose to Hope 6-3 during the regular season, and can’t have the same doubles complacency if they want to advance to Cincy. They will have the benefit of having Maggie MacPhail back in the lineup, but Hope now knows they can take singles points. However, Hope can’t look past UW-Whitewater, who they will likely face in the Round of 32. If UW-W/Hope does pull off the upset, I expect some outrage from the NESCAC/Wash U/P-P as to how a team ranked outside the top 25 could have a draw that gets them in the Elite Eight that easily.
8) What is the most interesting statistic?
34-1. That’s Alison Swain’s record in NCAA tournament play. After a heartbreaker against archrival Amherst in last year’s semis, the Ephs have come back this year to play some inspired tennis despite the loss of Kara Shoemaker. It’s clear they have that loss still on their minds, and I expect them to use it as fuel for what should be a fantastic championship run. Big props to Maria Pylypiv, who’s gone from a #4 singles player last year to being one of the best players in all of DIII. The Ephs will need her presence at the top of the lineup if they want to complete an undefeated season.
7) Who are the 3 unluckiest teams?
Wash U, Sewanee, and Middlebury. We’ve already gone through why, but a matchup between two Top 12 teams in the round of 32 is a crime. If Middlebury is lucky enough to get by Bowdoin, they face off against Emory in the quarterfinals, likely CMS in the semis and Williams in the final. That’s a long road.
6) Who are the 3 luckiest teams?
DePauw, Washington & Lee/Carnegie Mellon, and Williams. The first one should be self-explanatory. DePauw gets to host the worst region in a long time, and has a golden chance at avenging earlier season demons and advancing to the Elite Eight. One could really make the argument that Middlebury, Bowdoin, and Amherst all deserve higher seeds than Washington & Lee and CMU. Instead, W&L receives the #5 overall seed and gets a 2 seed in MIT that hasn’t shown the ability to really challenge a top team all season. Meanwhile, CMU gets the #6 seed and Chicago. Williams is the deserved #1 seed in the tourney, but now they have a march straight through to the final. They get the easiest #2 seed of a NESCAC host (as they should), but then get to play DePauw/Hope/UW-W in the Elite Eight which should be a cakewalk for them.
5) Is there a sleeper no one is thinking about who can make the Final 8?
A betting man would put his money on the Flying Dutch. As it happens, I am a betting man. (most recent Game of Thrones, anyone?) Hope already has a victory over DePauw earlier this year, though that was without the Tigers #2 Maggie MacPhail. While her presence will help immensely in singles play, Hope swept doubles last time out, took 3 matches in singles and two more went to superbreakers. That gives them the confidence that they can win anywhere in the lineup. If Hope can take another doubles lead, then wins by Benda (#1) and Garcia (#3) could make things incredibly interesting in the lower matches, where DePauw’s depth has been a bit lacking.
4) Which #1 seed is most likely to be upset in a regional?
While Hope would be the most surprising team in the Elite Eight, no one would be too shocked to see Hopkins there via an upset of Amherst. Hopkins is a team that made the semifinals last year and showed a ton of fight during the 2014 Nationals. Amherst has been strong this year, but definitely not to the level of last year. They’ve shown they can be beat, and don’t have any quality nonconference wins outside of a young Pomona-Pitzer team. They still deserve the #4 seed, but it would have been helpful to schedule some more ranked out-of-conference foes to familiarize themselves with the landscape. Instead, they’ll face a more experienced team in Hopkins they haven’t seen before.
3) Which 5-8 seed is most likely to make the Final 4?
Washington & Lee. I’m copping out and taking the #5 seed, but I just don’t see upsets anywhere else. Williams will beat whomever they play, Emory is a tier above Bowdoin, and CMS beat CMU 7-2 earlier in the year. The Generals have the ability to take down Amherst, but I’m sure they would rather play Hopkins. Herst is the better doubles team and W&L will need to make up for its weaker singles play by taking at least two doubles matches.
2) How many teams can realistically win the tournament?
I only count four, and Williams probably wins 70% of the time. They have just been on another level this year with the way they’ve prepared and executed. Suffice to say, I don’t see Williams having much trouble with their half of the draw; they’ve shown their a much stronger team than Amherst and Washington & Lee. Their 6-3 defeat of Emory earlier in the year was not particularly close either—the Eagles didn’t win a set in the top 4 singles matches, and lost at 1 and 2 doubles 8-4 and 8-1, respectively. It’s tough to come back from that. I don’t think the Ephs expect another double bagel against Rosen at the #1 spot, but I don’t see where the Eagles get a fifth point unless they reverse one of those top two doubles scores.
The other team with a good chance against the Ephs has to be CMS. The Athenas battled Emory to a close 5-4 earlier this year and will be itching to get another shot at them. If they pick up that extra doubles match, or one more set in singles they could find themselves playing for the national title. CMS plays some of the best doubles in the nation and might actually be favored against Williams. If they can get lucky and pull off a sweep, then they could get wins from Kuosman at #2 and Scott at #5 to pull off the upset.
While Bowdoin fought Williams the toughest all season long by relying on Tess Trinka and Kyra Silitch, I think the road to the trophy is too tough for them to pull off. They would have to flip a loss against Emory earlier this season, then run through CMS and fight Williams on their last legs. They’ll need a GREAT tournament out of Joulia Likhanskaia to make it happen.
1) Who are my Final 16, 8, 4, 2 and 1?
Final 16: Williams, Skidmore, DePauw, Hope, Washington & Lee, Mary Washington, Amherst, Johns Hopkins, CMS, Pomona-Pitzer, Carnegie Mellon, Bowdoin, Middlebury, Emory, Wash U
Final 8: Williams, DePauw, Washington & Lee, Amherst, CMS, Carnegie Mellon, Bowdoin, Emory
Final 4: Williams, Amherst, CMS, Emory
Final 2: Williams, Emory
Champion: Williams
ASouth: Well, well, well. Thanks to our anonymous writer for getting out this amazing preview for us, and stay tuned for more coverage on both sides until the tournament starts! We’re in the stretch run peeps, keep checking back for more information on the year!