2015 NCAA FINAL FOUR PREVIEWS

NCAA SEMIFINAL PREVIEWS

WOW! What a whirlwind of a day. Hop scares CMS, Wash U takes down Emory, Midd cruises past Trinity Tx, and Chicago upsets Amherst in a classic. If only such a wonderful tennis day hadn’t have been marred by some Dan LeBatard style planning (for those of you who don’t watch ESPN in the mid-afternoons, Dan LeBatard has a show called Highly Questionable). I’ll let D3AS do the NCAA ranting, and try to just stick to the tennis. After our entertaining/frustrating rain-soaked quarterfinals, we’re on to the semis. Some unlucky other writer will be bringing you a CMS/Wash U preview at some point, but likely not until tomorrow. Oh wait, D3AS is here and he’s decided to throw down a few musings before passing out from his monday of binge (insert mundane, short-lived fad here)-ing. It’s already after 1am, and this probably won’t be finished until after 2am. To borrow a phrase from my fellow blogger, WOOF! Instead of going into a boring match by match preview, here are a few things I’m looking forward to seeing in tomorrow’s match:

Will fatigue play a role? In a word, yes. Chicago just played and won the biggest match in program history, and in an extremely dramatic fashion. They tweeted out a picture of a team trip to the local Waffle House at about 1am. They will be warming up for the national semifinals in t-minus 14 hours. Adrenaline can only get you so far. On the other, less fatigued hand, Middlebury’s match was quite uneventful. The Panthers did their thing and swept dubs with relative ease. Then Frons and De Quant took their singles matches in straight sets, allowing their top dawgs like Smolyar and Farrell to quit without playing out the full third sets. Midd should certainly be the fresher team, and while it will certainly have an impact tomorrow, it will also absolutely affect Chicago if they were to win another tight match tomorrow. The freshmen got the Maroons this far, I’m excited to see how they respond.

Will Chicago be the “Happy Camper”? The other writers are fairly split about this one. I tend to believe that while teams always want to win, some are able (for better or for worse, and in this case I think it would be for worse) to keep a larger perspective. Even if Chicago gets blown out tomorrow, it would still be the best year in the program’s history. That’s quite an achievement for Coach Tee and his boys. In Brad Gilbert’s book, one of his main rules is to beware the happy camper, or the player who wins the first set and becomes complacent. Will Chicago be that “happy camper,” already pleased with their season’s result. I don’t believe they will. If they do, Midd will certainly jump all over them. The Panthers have been here before, and are have to be pleased with their matchup considering Amherst beat them 9-0 barely a month ago. Even more than most matches, the doubles will set the tone for the match. Which brings us to my next question.

Can Chicago steal a doubles point? They absolutely can! Midd’s doubles have not been impenetrable, although they have been mighty good. The Panthers swept the Tigers today, and looked great doing so. No match was that close, and Coach Hansen has to be brimming with confidence in his doubles teams. If Chicago were going to take a dubs point, it would likely be #3. However, Frost and De Quant have been money for the Panthers of late, and I really do think a doubles sweep is more than just a possibility tomorrow afternoon. If the Maroons do get a point, we could see another classic match, with the possibility of a second big upset in as many days.

Can Midd hang with Chicago’s singles strengths? Well, let’s break it down a little bit further. At #1, we have Chua and Smolyar, in a battle royale. If this match goes to completion, I like Smolyar to take it in 3 sets.  I give Midd the advantage at #2 and at #3. At #2, Kranz and Farrell will do battle. Skinner looked ready to put the beat down on Farrell today, but the freshman rallied back with 9 straight games before the match was called. Even though Campbell was beaten by Mayer today, Sabada is a different type of player. If Campbell plays his game, consistent but attacking his opportunities, he matches up well. I like both Midd guys to win, but only one in straight sets. When we get to the bottom half of the lineup, things tend to shift around. Leung and Tsai looked quite impressive today vs. Amherst, dropping a total of 2 games between them. Even though Frons and De Quant got the Panther wins today, both guys will be underdogs tomorrow. If De Quant does pull out a win over Tsai, then the Panthers will be moving on to the NCAA Championship match. #6 would normally be Chicago’s biggest advantage, but we don’t know how Liu will respond to his late-night match. He played well past midnight, and had to take a medical timeout in the 3rd set. Whatever ailed him tonight, might persist tomorrow. The bigger question, is who will play #6 for Midd tomorrow. I think Mountifield got and blew his shot today. Other options are Schlanger, but the freshman could’ve blown his shot last weekend at the NCAA Regionals, Jackson, or dark horse seniors like Heidrich and/or Frost. My bet would be Schlanger again, but with Coach Hansen you cannot be certain until the lineups are read tomorrow afternoon. no matter who is announced at #6 for the Panthers, he will be a considerable underdog. Total up my predictions, and you get either 6-3 or 5-4 to Midd. I’ll split the difference, and say the Panthers move onto the finals with a 5-3 win.

Enough of my ramblings, here comes D3AS with a Wash U/CMS preview! Cut him some slack, both his teams lost in the quarters. He’s gotta write about something…

D3ASouth: Sup playas, I’m going to be doing the CMS/Wash U preview.  I am not an unlucky writer, I am a lucky writer to have such great fans and such great dedication.  I will be writing some other article telling you all about the many things that went wrong with today but for this preview, we will focus on the good instead of the bad.  This will be hard for me since I have been negative all day about the NCAA but I believe I can do it! Anyways, I basically dominated the Amherst/Chicago preview other than one match so I guess some kudos to me.  Other than that, most of my predictions went haywire.

ANYWAYS, I’m going to ask a few questions about this Wash U/CMS match that will need answering then give short predictions on the matches.  Such is life after 1AM on a Monday. I need sleep, man.

Quick Recap: It was like deja vu for CMS, as they played Hopkins and then the Jays really pushed them in a couple of matches and took a surprising singles match.  Hopkins clearly set their doubles lineup for a match like this one, where they would have to take two doubles points, which they did.  Complain all you want about their lineup, if you’re the national championship front-runner with a billion sick kids in your lineup, just win. Unfortunately for CMS they went down today and now the whispers will start to arise.

For Wash U, this was another epic between them and Emory.  Now, I don’t want to get to too much with the whole debacle that was the NCAA tournament today, but the #4 match of Ian Wagner/Tyler Kratky got pulled after the first set due to darkness.  What kind of tournament planning is that? Did you guys hope that the match would be finished 6-0, 6-0?  Seriously, get a grip.  Anyways, Wash U was led by their senior Ross Putterman after he absolutely dismantled Eric Halpern, 0 and 0.  No idea what happened there but I assume Halpern must have some type of injury… right?  Then, Wash U took the depth spots at 5 and 6 with the beast Johnny Wu and another freshman Jason Haugen.  Great job Wash U for a complete team effort to take this win.  They have a much different challenge tomorrow.

Does Wash U even have a chance?

Honestly, I don’t think so.  It’s going to be very tough for Wash U to take 2 doubles spots, especially considering the Stags should come out tomorrow with fresher legs, more motivation, and basically, the Stags lineup.  I expect the Stags to come out really pumped up tomorrow and take it to the Wash U team.  CMS has advantages at #1 and #2 doubles in my mind, with a potential for a sweep here.  Hopkins is a tough doubles team especially when they play at a high level.  In singles, it’s going to be a rough one because CMS has the depth where Wash U usually takes advantage of people.  Carswell won’t be able to knock off Wood at #1 and Putterman will have his hands full with Butts.  Who knows, Butts lost today so maybe he’s struggling a bit.  Either way, I don’t see Wash U winning this one despite all of their good coaching and will to win.  It’s just the Stags year in my mind.

What are you looking for from the Stags?

I’m looking for two things.  I’m looking for a dominating doubles performance against a disciplined but not necessarily polished doubles team.  If CMS can take two doubles matches, I am feeling good for them moving into the final, assuming they make it.  They will be playing either Middlebury or Chicago, who both play some good doubles so they will need it.  What I am also looking for is for Skyler Butts to get on right track.  Losing to Ben Hwang is not that big of a deal, but he’s the lowest ranked #2 here and Butts was essentially supposed to be top dog.  Today was a disappointing match for Skyler and the Stags really need him here.

How about Wash U, what can they do?

With Johnny Wu having a tough match today, I would be considering pulling Wu and moving Haugen and Chu up for a bit more firepower down at the bottom of the lineup.  Last thing you want is Wu grinding against Mork despite the match being almost over.  Chu is a very solid player to fill in for at #6 and still feel just as comfortable.  Wash U has a potentially very tough match in the semifinal and if they don’t think they have a chance, they can always pull.  Fatigue will play a factor either today or later on, you might as well start planning while you can.

What are your predictions, ASouth?

#1 Doubles – I have to go with the Wood/Dorn combo that has worked them all year.  Last time out, CMS won by the score of 8-1.  Things have changed, but I don’t think this is a great matchup for Wash U either way.  CMS 8-5

#2 Doubles – Again, I’m going with CMS because I don’t think they squander the chance for a doubles lead in this match.  They may have some moments, but it will be extremely tough to get two other doubles matches in the same overall team match.  CMS 8-6

#3 Doubles – This is the match that I again think that Wash U will win.  I really like Kratky and Cogan from the baseline and a similar type team played CMS today and won it. The Bears need the point and the bathroom is calling. Wash U 9-7

#1 Singles – Wood over Carswell, 6-2,6-0.  Carswell got smoked by Ruderman today, cmon now.

#2 Singles – Butts vs Putterman is going to be a great match.  With neither player losing too much energy due to long matches today, it should be a good one.  I’m taking Mr. Butts on his revenge tour.  CMS 7-6, 7-5

#3 Singles – Marino vs. Bush – Bush played another tough match against Mosetick of Emory so I;m sure a little wind came out of them there.  Marino is on a mission, CMS 6-4, 7-5

#4 Singles – Kratky vs. Dorn – JOE DORN AT #4?! Kratky can play with Dorn but I’m not sure if Tyler has enough to take out the big guy.  CMS 7-5, 6-4

#5 SIngles Morkovine vs. Wu/Haugen/Chu

Morkovine took Noah Joachim today and basically made him a pinata in the first half.  Impressive stuff from Mork.  If Wu plays I thinnk he wins, but the others I am on the planet.  CMS 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 (unf)

#6 Singles – Hull vs. Haugen – This match is too lopsided. CMS 6-2, 6-4

OKAY. I’m sorry, I’m too tired to go too in depth and I think this one will be more of a no contest match.  I hope this pumps up the Bears and maybe they give CMS a bigger challenge that we expect, but I’m looking forward to the Midd/Chicago match a tad bit more than this one.  Let’s see if Wash U proves me wrong.  They’ve reached their billionth FInal 4 in the past 10 years and that’s already a feat.  It feels good to beat Emory when it counts.  ASouth, OUT.