2014 NCAAs: Middlebury Regional

“BIg ups”, boys and girls, and welcome to THE BLOG’S 2nd 2014 NCAA Regional Preview! I have the distinct pleasure of previewing the two regions that will take place in the NE. Seeing as Middlebury’s region will be the first to kick off tournament play, Thursday at 10am, I decided to get that preview done first (even if it meant sacrificing a little sleep for all you faithful late-night readers). I will do my best to get the Amherst Regional Preview done by tomorrow night as well. As always, please email me, tweet at me, or simply comment below if you have anything to add or discuss. “Hugs and hand-pounds, everybody”.

Middlebury

Where they’re strong: #1 doubles, #2 doubles, #2, #3 singles

Where they’re weak: #5 singles

Why they’ll get out of the region: “Boo-yah!” The Panthers are undoubtedly the favorite to advance out of the region, and that starts with their doubles. Doubles has been a Panther strength this whole year, as they don’t have any glaring weaknesses. Obviously it pays to have an ITA winner as your #2 team, but I would be shocked if Middlebury trails after doubles, before the semifinals (yes, I know we have a lot of ground to cover before that, I’m just keepin it real).  There are other off the court factors that have helped propel Middlebury to a National Title Contender. The first is their senior leadership. This team has a slew of seniors, and I know that even those who don’t start play a large role in the team’s success. In addition to the seniors, let’s not forget about the team’s senior citizen. Coach Hansen is widely regarded as one of (if not) the best DIII tennis coach of all time. His transition to Midd was well documented, but this is the best team that old Bob-O has had since his arrival in Vermont. Look for him to lead the Panthers on a deep tournament run.

Why they won’t get out of the region: “Hata in the house”. Midd drew a tough #2 seed in Williams, and the Ephs present one of the biggest reasons that Midd won’t get through to the quarters. The bottom of the lineup has not produced like a certain blogger believed they would, and have in fact been quite dodgy at times. Hansen has yet to find NCAA success at Middlebury, and there will be inordinate pressure on both him and his team now that the Panthers are favored to do some NCAA damage. Beating Williams during the regular season is one thing, but this next match would be a whole different cat to skin.

Player to watch: Alex Johnston (#1 singles/#1 doubles). Johno has had a bit of an up and down spring, but he still one of the most talented players in the entire country. Big serve and big groundies make for an imposing style of play, but Alex will have to “holla at a playa if he sees him on the street” and beat some of the other best #1’s in the country if the Panthers are going to make a run.

Odds of making it to Cali: 78.4%

Williams

Where they’re strong: #1 singles, #2 singles, #6 singles

Where they’re weak: #4 singles, #3 doubles

Why they’ll get out of the region: DEFENDING NATIONAL CHAMPS! While most of this team did not start for last year’s squad, 5 out of 7 current starters were a part of that team. Do not devalue that experience! Plus, ever since Williams made a few lineup swaps, this has become more solid at every position (except #3 doubles). This team will never go down without a fight, and with Greenberg at the helm they will always be ready to battle.

Why they won’t get out of the region: Silly D3NE, are you forgetting that Williams has lost to NOT ONE, BUT TWO teams that are in their region? Seems like the NCAA does not love the idea of a repeat. “I ain’t gonna be sayin’ nothin’, but that ain’t right.” Even if you write the 5-4 Skidmore loss off (I know that some readers will dislike this idea, but just go with it for now) they barely challenged Middlebury back in the middle of April (including getting swept). The lineup may be different, but Middlebury’s is still the same.

Player to watch: Howie Weiss (#5 singles). Weiss has been through the ringer of late. He beat Yaraghi in the fall and started off the spring as a high flying #2. Now he’s been shifted all they way down to #5 singles, and he’s still nowhere near a lock. If Lil Weiss ever wants to shed the nickname, he needs to step out of his brother’s shadow and into the NCAA limelight. Now would be an opportune moment, Howard…

Odds of making it to Cali: 16.8%

Skidmore

Where they’re strong: #1 singles, #1 doubles

Where they’re weak: #3 doubles, #4 singles

Why they’ll get out of the region: The Thoroughbreds are clicking at the right time. They cruised through the Liberty League Tournament after upsetting the defending champs, who just happen to be waiting in a potential 2nd round matchup. They beat em once, why can’t they do it again? We all know how strong Skidmore is at the top of the lineup, and there’s no reason that on the right day they couldn’t take 2/3 doubles from the Panthers. Odds are slim, but this is the arguably the best #3 seed in the whole damn bracket (only other consideration is UT-Tyler), so they deserve at least a smidgeon of respect.

Why they won’t get out of the region: Smidgeons only happen so often and this Thoroughbred team just got ROCKED by the Panthers barely 2 weeks ago. Time to “drink some hateorade”. Skidmore doesn’t have the depth to stick with Midd, plus they have a damn tough matchup with Williams in the 2nd round. The Ephs have changed their lineup since the Thoroughbred upset, and I believe it makes them significantly better. It’ll be tough enough to get past Williams, but to follow it up with an even bigger upset the next day? Yikes

Player to watch: Obviously Loutsenko will be “as cool as the other side of the pillow”, but I think they other seniors are more important to Skidmore’s NCAA success. Sherpa, Steerman, and Knight (along with Oliver) all play singles and doubles. We learned last year what a talented senior-laden lineup can do. If the seniors ramp their respective games up this team becomes a very tough out.

Odds of making it to Cali: 4.7%

Babson/Colby Sawyer/Yeshiva

Where they’re strong: Bab-O is stronger at the top (see below). The Chargers are also generally stronger at 1&2, and should present an interesting matchup for the Beavers. Yeshiva has something different going for them, the “nobody has ever heard of us” factor. The Maccabees are in the tournament for the 1st time, and that in and of itself makes them dangerous.

Where they’re weak: Compared to the top 3 seeds in the region, each of these teams lack depth, and in a big way.

Why they’ll get out of the region: Yeah, about that…

Why they won’t get out of the region: Middlebury, Williams, Skidmore all pose too big a threat for any one of these teams to “take it to the house”.

Player to watch: Roberto Perez (Babson). Perez is quietly a very crafty #1. At one point in the season he was in the top 15 in the region. While I don’t believe he will beat Alex Johnston if the Beavers make the 2nd round (I highly doubt that match will finish), Perez is always a tough out.

Odds of making it to Cali: <.1%

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