Yeah, yeah. I know this is a little bit late considering NCAAs has basically already started and Friday is the day to get this preview out. Well, at least it’s Friday at 2AM. That’s gotta count for something, right? We’ve already seen some action at NCAAs and we are headed towards hopefully a great weekend of tennis. I know I can’t wait. My last region to preview will be the Hopkins region, which takes place at the beautiful complex of Mary Washington this weekend. This is a region that it seems most people don’t really see as a competitive region, as seen by the polls. I tend to agree, but there are always crazy things that happen in nationals. Who knows?
Johns Hopkins Blue Jays
Strengths – The Jays have no true “strengths” in terms of positions, but what I consider them is a true all-around team. I don’t think they have weaknesses at any part of the lineup and that includes their doubles play as well. Really, take a look. The individual players on Hopkins all basically have winning records and it’s not like they’ve had a weak schedule this year. These guys can really rely on each other to get some wins and that’s what makes them a very good team this year. Hopkins has shored up their doubles and they have legit chances at every single spot. Brown/Lim are a very good #2 team and Joachim/Garcia are a very good #3 team. Move them around, and you might run into some trouble, but there is no need to do that at this point. In singles, they’ve added Dubin to #4 and he’s been rock solid and maybe a top 5 #4 player all year. This has allowed them to move Lim all the way down to #6. Buxbaum and Hwang have stepped up big this year and that has allowed the team to move Brown, who has been dealing with some injuries, to settle in at #3 singles. So as you can see, the overall strength of this team is their all-around play.
Weaknesses – In terms of regional play, the Jays don’t have weaknesses. The way you have to beat them is by having a strength at 5 different positions. I guess if I had to point out a weakness, it would be their lack of star power. They don’t have any spots where you would say “that person(s) is definitely going to win.” That used to be Brown at #3, but as I mentioned earlier injuries have really hurt his play this year. You might be able to say this at the bottom of the doubles lineup but I am not truly comfortable saying that just yet. When I say in terms of regional play, I mean against teams that are weaker than them. Lesser teams aren’t going to upset the Jays because they just don’t have the goods to take 5 spots. Why do you think JHU hasn’t been upset or even been challenged by the lesser teams this year? It’s because they are rock solid. However, Hop will get into some trouble when they meet the big boys that can truly say they are better at tennis.
Why they’ll Advance – Basically, everything I said in the weaknesses section. This is just too good of a team not to advance with the draw they have.
Why they won’t Advance – Injuries, home court advantage for the Eagles, and a slew of other things happen that somehow make the Jays vulnerable and not advance. It’s just not going to happen unless some higher power commands craziness to ensue in the Hopkins draw.
Player to Watch – Jeremy Dubin. I think this is an important region for Dubin, as he looks like he’ll be set up against the veteran Charles in this region at #4. That’s a match that will be tough and it’s always a good thing to start off your NCAA career with a win over a tough opponent. You never want any doubts to creep into young players minds when we’re talking NCAAs. Dubin has the ability to handily beat Charles, even with the home court advantage, and it’d be nice to see him notch one of those wins to get to 5 points for Johns Hopkins. Even a set lead would suffice for me.
Chances to Advance – 95%
Mary Washington Eagles
Strengths – Mary Washington is a very similar team to Johns Hopkins in that they are considered an all-around type of team. They have a few key strengths, particularly at #1 doubles, but overall none of the players strike you as strengths. That doesn’t bode well for the Eagles as they really need 5 strengths to come close to an upset over the Jays. If I had to point something out, it’d be the bottom of the singles lineup that has really done well this year with now Charles, L-J and Griffin manning the bottom of the lineup. Those are all pretty solid players and two of them are veterans. Experience could be another strength of the Eagles as most of them have NCAA tournament experience from their easy conference wins.
Weaknesses – The Eagles have a key weakness that really rears its head when playing the best teams. I really don’t have much faith in their top of the lineup. Carey is a solid player, but when we’re talking about the best of the best, he’s not necessarily mentioned. His game style is such that he makes the opponent beat you, as he as very solid groundstrokes and a well-coached game. A lot of these #1 players can attack that despite his confidence in his style. At #2 and #3, Blahkin has had major struggles as expected, which takes me back to last year when he really struggled as well. He’s a bit of a misfit at #2 right now. At #3 is Stratton Gilmore, who has been pretty solid this year but I just have my doubts. None of these guys can put the scare into you game-wise and that’s what you want here in the tournament. That wow factor is important.
Why They’ll Advance – They focus on doubles and come out with an impressive sweep. They then use the gome court to their advantage and are able to scrape out two tough wins against the legit Hopkins lineup despite having far less talent.
Why they won’t – Hopkins shows up to play, takes one or two of the doubles matches and gets fired up. Soon enough, the Jays get a couple of middle matches and we’re looking at an easy blowout for the Jays.
Player to Watch – Alex Blahkin. I never know with this kid. Such a talent, sometimes we see it come out and he beats some players he shouldn’t be beating. Today, it seems like he’s back to his old ways and the Eagles have him at a strange spot where he might be losing confidence. The lefty player has a nifty game with a tricky serve, and if he can round into form, he honestly could be a two-win guy for you in your lineup. Blahkin is a key for the Eagles if they want to advance.
Chances to Advance – 5%
Wilkes, Baruch, Neumann
As much as I want to, I can’t bring myself to think that any of these teams have a chance of beating Mary Washington or especially Hopkins. Wilkes is one of the weaker three seeds out there. They have played tight with some non-ranked teams, but they’ve also lost easily to NYU. UMW is a different beast than NYU and they shouldn’t have a problem.
Match to Watch
Hopkins vs. Mary Washington
Personally, I think this might be a snoozer. Hopkins has a very similar makeup to the Mary Wash team and it will show in this match. At the two bottom doubles spots, it would behoove you to favor Hopkins in both. They just have more talent at those spots and are able to play the fundamental doubles that UMW is able to play. This is key when staving off an upset from an upstart team. At #1 doubles will be an interesting match between the skidding UMW #1 of Charles/Carey, who have lost to the Salisbury #1 team twice in a row. Thanks to them, Salisbury now has a team in the NCAA draw! Believe it or not. #1 doubles is a must-win for the Eagles if they want to have a chance. I don’t think that they’ll come close to a 2-1 lead let alone a clean sweep. I expect Hopkins with the bottom two spots to lead into the singles, 2-1.
In singles, this has the makings of a 5-1 match where everyone seems to be finishing quickly. That makes sense considering the talent discrepancy, but hey the Eagles can show up on any given day. I just think that the singles lineup Hop is going to throw out there will be too strong at every spot. Yes, the Eagles might take some sets, but that’s not a match. Look for some fights at the top and bottom with Carey and Griffin trying to fend for some points, but who knows. Hopkins has two really good players at those spots anyways so don’t expect them to finish before this one is over.
Yawn. I’m tired after writing that quick preview and I think it is time for sleep. ASouth, OUT.