2014 NCAAs: CMS Regional

I’ve got an extra day to preview the lone West regional, but you all know that I’m not one to slack off around here. (Ha!). I really liked both D3Central’s and D3NE’s formats, so I’m gonna pull a Google and take the best parts of both previews to make a better product. Zing!

CMS Stags

Where they’re strong: everywhere

Where they’re weak: they start to peter our around #20 singles and #7 doubles

Why they’ll get out of the region: They’re undefeated in DIII this year, and haven’t played a match that was closer than 6-3. They beat the #2 seed in the region (Pomona-Pitzer) 9-0 a week ago. They might be the best DIII team in history. They just got four singles players into individual nationals. They’re playing in their backyard. All good reasons. Take your pick.

Why they won’t get out of the region: I can’t think of a good reason. Even the CMS-as-chokers proponents won’t think that they’ll choke before the Elite Eight

Player to watch: I’m going with Pereverzin. He’s the only player in the lineup who took part in the epic collapse against Williams in the 2011 quarters at home. If someone is going to get PTSD and choke, it’s him. If someone is going to use that experience to lift his team to the championship after they get punched in the mouth for the first time this season, it’s him. I don’t think this will be a big deal in the regional, per se, but it’s something to keep an eye on.

Odds of Winning the Regional: 99.1397583% -ish

Pomona-Pitzer

Where they’re strong: #2, #5, #6 singles. #1, #2 doubles

Where they’re weak: #1, #3 singles

Why they’ll get out of the region: Again, there’s no great reason to think that anyone but CMS is going to get out of the reason, but I’ve been in the locker room with a team that’s trying to convince themselves that they have a chance, so I think I have a pretty good idea of what’s being said. “Listen guys, we’re the only team in the country that has come close to taking a lead of CMS this year, and we played them close at all three doubles positions last time. All we need to do is come out with a bit more energy, sneak out some doubles matches, and they’ll get nervous. Wiech-iech-iech-iech-iech-iechert, you know you can take down Dorn at #2, and then all we have to do is find another point or two. We can do this, guys. WE CAN DO THIS.”

Why they won’t get out of the region: Because they’re in the gosh darn CMS region. In literally any other region, I think they would have a legitimate shot at beating the #1 seed, but CMS is just better. Every time I was in one of those locker rooms, it was hard to convince ourselves it was going to happen because it just wasn’t going to happen.

Player to Watch: Chris Wiechert. If the Hens are going to pull off the miracle, they’re probably going to need two wins from their senior captain. He’s shown before that he can beat both Stags that he’s playing on the right day, but can he put it together on the same day? Even if he did, would it be enough?

Odds of winning: 100-99.1397583%ish

UT-Tyler

Where They’re Strong: #3 doubles, #4, #5, #6 singles

Where They’re Weak: #1 doubles, #1, #2 singles

Why they’ll get out of the region: Even they don’t think they’re getting out of this region. They’re focused on winning one huge match, perhaps putting themselves in position to make Indoors next year, and becoming the most under-the-radar team to finish in the top 15 in DIII tennis history.

Why they won’t get out of the region: CMS is in this region. Get real.

Player to Watch: Ramon Martinez. I know, I know. Their #1 singles player!? Real original. The thing about Martinez though is that he could potentially steal the match for Tyler against P-P. The Hens have been way stronger in doubles, but with him at #3, they could sneak that point out. The Hens have also been relatively weak at #1 singles. Martinez hasn’t won a big match all season. Some would say he’s a bad #1 singles player. Others would say “HE’S DUE!!!”

Odds of winning: 0.001%

UC Santa Cruz

There’s gonna be a whole other article about Cruz coming out soon (the second this year. Woohoo!), so I’m not going to waste your time by pretending the Slugs are going to get past the Stags. They could get a point in doubles, but if they don’t, they won’t be able to win a close singles match before the team match is clinched. It’s been a tough year for the Slugs, but things are looking up for next year!

Odds of winning: 0.001%

Matches To Watch

Pomona-Pitzer vs. UT-Tyler

This will probably be the most competitive match of this regional, and it has big rankings implications, so I’m going to give it some time. I mentioned in the UT-Tyler section that the Pats’ best hope is to have Martinez come out and take two points. Martinez hasn’t been overly competitive against the good DIII #1’s, but he’s played some great matches this year, and if Yasgoor or Wiechert can’t find away to get around him, he’s not going to beat himself up. Even if they get those two points, they’re going to have a hard time finding three more. My first bet would be Kelleher over Hudson at #3. Chuddy should be the favorite in that one, but he has laid a couple stinkers this year, and Kelleher has played some good matches. My next bet would be #5 where the senior Ryan Spencer will probably be playing freshman Josh Kim. After that, they’ll have to hope Timponi can make Bello nervous or they steal another point in doubles or something like that.

I would like nothing more than to see this match become competitive, but with P-P’s experience and UT-T traveling, I think it’s more likely that the Hens sweep the doubles and pick off two straight-set singles wins before the Pats get a chance to get more than 1 point at the board. I’m going with a 5-1 Sagehen victory with a doubles sweep and singles wins at #1 and #2 to go with a Pat win at #5 before the match is decided.

CMS vs. Pomona-Pitzer

The recipe for P-P success looks something like this: they build off of their competitive match with Tyler by breaking on all three courts early in doubles. CMS gets nervous on one court and gets blown out to the tune of 8-3 or 8-4. The other two doubles teams recover the break, but P-P somehow manages to hold on until one CMS doubles team is serving at 6-7. Marino tightens up and throws in three doubles faults or something like that. The last doubles match ends up going to a tiebreaker where the Hens get three let cords and a double fault to get the sweep. After that, Yasgoor beats Dorn again, and a free-swinging Bello takes out the rattled senior, Pereverzin.

Sounds like a fantasy to you, right? Me too. I think CMS gets easy wins at #1 and #2 this time, pulls out #3, and then gets quick wins from Wood and Butts for a 5-0 sweep.