It’s been a long time since I’ve posted an article, but what better way of returning than by writing about two NCAA title contenders. Tomorrow, at 4 pm Pacific, CMS hosts Chicago. Live stats and live stream for every court can be found at https://webapps.cmc.edu/livescore/.
CMS Power 6: 76.60. Nikolai Parodi (12.50), Glenn Hull (13.36), Daniel Morkovine (13.05), Patrick Wildman (12.92), Daniel Park (12.35), Max Macey (12.42)
Chicago Power 6: With David Liu 76.41. Without David Liu: 75.91. David Liu (12.98), Nick Chua (12.71), Charlie Pei (12.60), Luke Tsai (13.18), Erik Kerrigan (12.58), Ninan Kumar (12.36), Peter Leung (12.48)
D3Midwest10s: Last year, the Stags and the Maroons traded blows. In March, CMS stormed to a 3-0 lead and ended up winning 7-2, but Chicago overcame a doubles deficit in the Elite 8, winning 5-2. Neither match in 2016 was really that close, but recent results from both squads may foreshadow a nail biter tomorrow.
The Maroons and the Stags each feature strong and deep singles lineups, but in the past year, doubles has been a struggle. Out of the four top-20 teams they’ve faced this season, the Stags have had deficits heading into singles in three of those matches, including two doubles sweeps. While Chicago’s doubles appear to be a lot cleaner than last year — with doubles leads in three of their four top-20 matches, including two doubles sweeps — they fell behind 3-0 to Emory in the ITA Indoors final, leading to a quick Eagles’ clinch. It seems like Chicago has had the ability to overcome 2-1 but not 3-0 deficits in the past. Yet, CMS proved to us on three separate occasions in the last year that being down 3-0 does not mean they are out. The Stags probably don’t want to be in a 3-0 hole against Chicago, however.
I’m going to mainly talk about the Chicago lineup and leave CMS to D3West. In doubles, probably Chicago’s best player, David Liu, has not played a match since the first week of February. He has yet to play singles or doubles during spring break, so I don’t think he’ll make an appearance tomorrow. That said, the Maroons boast some solid tandems. At #1, freshmen Erik Kerrigan and Ninan Kumar have only lost 1 match in 2017. The #2 team of senior Max Hawkins and freshman Tyler Raclin came into the spring red hot after winning the fall ITA Central Region tournament. While they’re still a good team, they have suffered a few setbacks, especially at Indoors where they went 1-2. Perhaps, they are better suited for outdoors, especially considering their formidable start to Spring Break, but I wouldn’t say they are a lock for wins. Finally, the spot that I am most surprised by is Chicago’s 3. Last season, Charlie Pei and Peter Leung were the Maroons most reliable team for wins. I assumed they would play either 2 or 3 this season. Instead, Pei has teamed with Bobby Bethke since mid-February, and their lone loss came to Emory’s Jonathan Jemison and David Omsky. I know I’m basically rambling, but the point I’m trying to make is that Chicago’s doubles lineup doesn’t have any exceptionally visible weaknesses, and though any team can get swept, Chicago shouldn’t against CMS. In fact, they should lead after doubles.
As I mentioned in the paragraph above, David Liu has not played a singles match over spring break so far, meaning that the Maroons may be down one of their best singles players. Even without Liu, Chicago has one of the top singles lineups in the country, and as you can see from UTRs, this contest is as evenly matched as they get. I’m not going to go through Chicago’s entire singles lineup, but what I will say is that no matchup between the Stags and the Maroons has a clear favorite.
Well, it’s time for my prediction. Like I said, anything can happen, but I’m going with Chicago 6-3.
D3West: Midwest just spent an awful lot of page space discussing doubles, which seems foolish because we now know that, for CMS, doubles is largely irrelevant. The question is: where will Chicago get their two singles points after they sweep the Stags in doubles?
Personally, I don’t see it happening for Chicago. Parodi is just getting back into the swing of things, coming off consecutive victories over some of the best in the business, and Chua has been far from his freshman year self so far this season. Hull is playing like potentially the best #2 singles player in the country (I see you Jemison). Mork will be angry coming off a rare loss and ready to grind Luke Tsai into the Bisantz asphalt. Wildman is on fire coming off of an injury, and I really don’t see him losing to an unproven freshman. Park just proved that he’s wise beyond his years and as clutch as anyone against Bowdoin And Macey at #6 is just unfair, considering he lost like one match at #4 singles last season. I do think this match ends up becoming the close one everyone imagined it would be the last two times they played, but I see CMS and their superior match experience + home-court advantage taking what will be a big match for NCAA-seeding purposes. I think CMS gets wins at #1 doubles, #1-3 singles, and #6 singles for a 5-4 win that will eventually allow them to get the #2 overall seed and avoid an ignominious NCAA quarterfinal defeat yet again.