NCAA Final Four Preview – Bowdoin vs. Emory

A great day of tennis today, once again, as the 2016-2017 season keeps giving back to us with some really interesting storylines. Today, we had a couple of UAA/NESCAC battles that really gave us the better quarterfinals (who would have thought right) and then two really dominating performances from two of our national championship picks. The other national championship pick is Emory, who will now move on to face Bowdoin in the Final 4. Does this sound familiar? Good, because it should.

This match is extremely juicy – both teams battled today in tough ones against worthy opponents and were tested in both doubles and singles. Both teams are conference champions in the two best conferences in the nation. And honestly, both teams have been gearing up for a rematch since the day Bowdoin beat Emory last year. This one’s going to be a good one, and I hope the other semifinal is just as good so the winner of this one isn’t too tired to play a fresh CMS/Midd team the very next day.

EMORY

Power 6: 76.74. Aman Manji (13.49), Jonathan Jemison (13.33), Adrien Bouchet (12.78), Alec Josepher (12.24), Josh Goodman (12.49), Scott Rubenstein (12.31).

Quarterfinal Recap: NE is asking me for a quarterfinal recap for some reason and it’s a bit annoying cuz I just want to get to the semifinals! Emory played an inspired Williams team today that has saved their best tennis for the playoffs, which reminds me of the Williams teams of old. Hats off to the Ephs for ending their season valiantly and this is certainly a step in the right direction for them after missing the playoffs two years running. In regards to Emory, this went as they expected – however they are really yearning for that tiebreaker at #1 doubles today. When Emory gets a doubles lead, they are almost unstoppable, with a top 3 that really scares people. However, when they go down in doubles, things can start to get hairy like they did today. Both Josepher and Rubinstein are inexperienced when it comes to NCAA singles play, and Goodman has shown that he can be beat on any given day. Emory got 2 quick ones from Manji and Jemison, who are going to be lights out this tournament, and a weird tank and tree performance from Adrien Bouchet. This left them with one more match, and Alec Josepher was able to take a straight set win over Indrakanti that was harder than I thought it might be. Emory showed signs of “weakness” today, but I’m not going to worry too much about it. I want to see the Emory gear that we’ve been talking about when the revenge match happens tomorrow.

BOWDOIN

Power 6: 74.66 Luke Tercek (12.29), Grant Urken (13.13), Kyle Wolfe (12.44), Jerry Jiang (11.93), Gil Roddy (13.03), Justin Patel (11.84).

Quarterfinal Recap: THE DANCING POLAR BEAR LIVES! AS is just a little salty about the QF recap section because he had been touting Wash U for the past week. Bowdoin took a 2-1 doubles lead over the Bears, but did so in a somewhat surprising way, winning #1 doubles which has been a trouble spot for most of the year. In singles, they also strayed from their tried and true path of relying on their depth. Wash U won both #4 and #6 in straight sets, forcing Bowdoin to come up with wins from the top of their lineup. Tercek and Urken did not disappoint, and combined with Roddy’s straight set win at #5 the Polar Bears clinched their second-consecutive semifinal berth and broke the NCAA defending champion hangover curse! Now the Dancing Polar Bears turn their sites to a familiar foe, the Emory Eagles, the team they upset in the national semifinals last year. In that match, Bowdoin overcame a 2-1 deficit and relied on their depth combined with, you guessed it, a surprise Tercek win. Luke is beginning to make a name for himself as somebody who plays his best tennis when it matters most, so much so that D3West dubbed him Mr. May in the blogger group chat today. He’s my X-Factor for the semifinal, and he’ll likely need at least one point if the Dancing Polar Bear wants to see another sunrise. Looking at the semifinal match, I could actually see the final score ranging from 5-0 Emory to 5-0 Bowdoin! All three doubles matches are close, and both teams easily have the potential to win at four or even five singles spots. Should be an exciting afternoon!

#1 doubles: Rubenstein/Spaulding (Emory) vs. Tercek/Urken (Bowdoin)

AS: A rough loss for the Emory duo today as they were on serve basically the whole match and then lost in a tough tiebreaker. This Emory team is going to play with the best in the business. They better be ready, because Tercek/Urken crushed an experienced and probably better Wash U team today, based on past results. NE is making a big deal about Tercek’s playoff performances, and he certainly has the right to, but to me, I’m not that terrified of it. Let’s see if the Bowdoin duo can do it twice in a row. Emory 8-6

NE: First match in and D3AS and I already disagree. I am making a big deal about Tercek, but it’s not just the big man here. Urken, the slightly smaller but still quite large man, was really on his game today, cranking serves in the dubs and dismantling Carswell in singles. I like the big men to get Bowdoin on the board. Bowdoin, 8-5.

#2 doubles: Bouchet/Renke (Emory) vs. Jiang/Wolfe (Bowdoin)

AS: Another tough loss here for Emory and Renke/Bouchet are continuing their season of 50/50 play. This is another interesting one as I see both teams singling this match out as a potential match decider. Bouchet and Renke are streaky from what I know, while Jiang and Wolfe are the opposite. I’m going to say that the good streak is on tomorrow. Emory flips the two doubles they lost today. Emory 8-4

NE: I totally agree with AS here, and yet am going to come to a totally different result. Bouchet and Renke are hot and cold, while Jiang and Wolfe are more consistent. I also agree that this match is a swing match and both teams know just how important it is. However, because of those things, I’m drawing the opposite conclusion from our beloved Headmaster. Bowdoin, 9-8 (3).

#3 doubles: Jemison/Omsky (Emory) vs. Patel/Roddy (Bowdoin)

AS: Are you going to predict a sweep AS?! No, I am not. Spoiler alert. Here’s where the Jemison/Omsky duo meet their match, even though that has actually happened more times than expected this year. Patel and Roddy toughed it out against a good Wash U team today and they will need more of the same. I think with fundamental doubles, they can beat this Jemison/Omsky team when the pressure is on. Bowdoin 8-5

NE: Am I going to predict an NE sweep? No, I am not. Spoiler alert, both of these teams are REALLY GOOD. I like the experience of the Emory team slightly more than the Bowdoin team, and I think the Eagles avoid the sweep by taking down a hot Bowdoin team at #3. Emory, 8-6.

#1 singles: Aman Manji (Emory-senior) vs. Luke Tercek (Bowdoin-junior)

AS: I am waiting for NE to pick Tercek in this match because of his playoff prowess, and I will chuckle a bit when he does. Well, maybe he won’t because he’s not that much of a homer (who am I kidding). Manji is the player that many players across the nation fear the most right now. A senior leader who doesn’t get rattled, Manji brought the rain today against Rohan Shastri to the tune of a 6-2, 6-0 victory. Tercek may be the playoff man, but no way I go against a senior who has lived for these matches since losing in the semifinals last year. Emory, 6-3, 6-2.

NE: I am that much of a homer, but I can’t go against Manji here. He looked incredible today on the live feed, but Manji lost the clinching match to Trinka last year at #3 singles, and he wants this just as badly as anybody. I do think Tercek keeps it close, possibly even wins a set, but the senior gets it done in the end. Emory, 7-5, 6-4.

#2 singles: Jonathan Jemison (Emory-sophomore) vs. Grant Urken (Bowdoin-sophomore)

AS: Wow, Jonathan Jemison. His match against Grodecki today was supposed to be one of the premiere matches of the Elite 8. It wasn’t. Jemison took Grodecki and crushed him with a series of screaming baseline winners and forced errors all day. It’s pretty scary considering Grodecki is one of the best #2 players in the nation. Urken also made quick work today of the artist formerly known as John Carswell, which is a little bit less impressive. This one will be close in one set before Jemison takes charge. Emory 6-1, 7-5.

NE: Nobody impressed me more than Mr 10K today, as Jemison destroyed Grodecki on the lie feed. That being said, his opponent tomorrow is another top-notch #2 in Grant Urken. Jemison beat Wolfe in the 3rd set in last year’s semifinal, while Urken won in straight sets all the way down at #6. It’s very tough for me to go against Jemison here, even though Urken was smoking the ball today. Emory, 6-4, 2-6, 6-3.

#3 singles: Adrien Bouchet (Emory-sophomore) vs. Kyle Wolfe (Bowdoin-junior)

AS: With Manji and Jemison playing so well, here is where the Polar Bears need to ice the Eagles. That starts with figuring out the puzzle that is Adrien Bouchet, which older Raghavan did for one set today before falling back into a bottomless pit. Wolfe took a tough first set loss to Jason Haugen today but will come back tomorrow strong as ever. He is a consistent player who could make this really tough if Bouchet is on one of his down streaks. I think Wolfe is leading in this match before it’s called, and he might even win it. Bowdoin leads, 6-4, 3-3.

NE: Here are a few things that I’ve come to know I can count on by following Bowdoin over the past couple years. 1) Their twitter updates are the best in the land. 2) They love ice baths/bad mustaches. 3) Kyle Wolfe will play the most drawn out match on the team. Wolfey is the ultimate grinder because he grinds on you both mentally and physically. Bouchet’s results make him seem to be the streaky type, but I don’t know actually how true that is. If the match is hanging in the balance, I’m not sure there’s anybody I’d rather have playing in this matchup than Wolfe. Bowdoin, 5-7, 6-3, 6-1 (SPOILER ALERT: FOR THE CLINCH!).

#4 singles: Alec Josepher (Emory-junior) vs. Jerry Jiang (Bowdoin-sophomore)

AS: Josepher has struggled a little bit against top competition this year and this is a match that I think he should be able to take, but may not. Jiang is a tough competitor – as seen by his playoff experience just last year. He did end up losing in today’s match to Bernardo Neves, but honestly Neves has had an incredible year. Josepher will have to up his game in this one even a tad more than he did today against Indrakanti. I think he can do it, but I think the best may be yet to come for young Alec. Bowdoin, 7-6, 6-4.

NE: The question remains, which Jerry Jiang will we see tomorrow. As D3AS pointed out, Neves is a really good #4, but the 6-0 loss in the 2nd set was a little disappointing. Josepher already beat a very good NESCAC sophomore today, and should be slightly favored to do the same thing tomorrow. If this match goes the distance, I like Jiang to win in 3 sets. Emory, 6-4, 6-2.

#5 singles: Josh Goodman (Emory-senior) vs. Gil Roddy (Bowdoin-junior)

AS: It is with much disdain that I preview this matchup between an ASouth senior who has been through it all and one of my favorite players this year, Gil Roddy. Roddy took Jeremy Bush today and crushed him in the second set, and the fact of the matter is that Bowdoin counts on Gil to be a rock in their lineup. I don’t think he will be rattled by the gamesmanship of Goodman and he will take this one in a close two sets. Bowdoin 6-4, 6-4.

NE: This is probably the spot where Bowdoin is most strongly favored. Roddy has been excellent throughout his career, but especially of late. Goodman was down a set to LIl’ Raghavan today, and though the senior has played well in big matches before, he has also fallen in similar situations. I like the Goldilocks to end up just right. Bowdoin, 6-4, 6-3.

#6 singles: Scott Rubenstein (Emory-junior) vs. Justin Patel (Bowdoin-freshman)

AS: Surprise, surprise! A battle between two guys who are playing singles at NCAAs for the very first time in their careers. Rubinstein had a pretty poor showing today against Sadowsky of Williams, who somehow has not been in the singles lineup all year despite dominating NCAAs. Rubinstein is a wild card and he will need to elevate his game tomorrow. However, the story is the same for Patel, who got uprooted by JJ “Baby” Kroot. Shoutout to those who got that pun. This is going to be the clincher for Emory as Rubinstein comes back with a vengeance over the freshman. Emory, 6-3, 7-6 (5).

NE: Patel fell to Kroot today, but with one match of big time NCAA experience under his belt, I think he comes back ready tomorrow. Rubenstein similarly fell hard today in singles, but I am less confident that he will come back strong tomorrow. Honestly, I’m not even 100% that he will be in the starting lineup tomorrow. I am going with my gut and picking the mini upset in Patel to win this match. Bowdoin, 7-6 (4), 6-4.

Overall Prediction:

AS: If you count that up, I have Emory winning this one 5-3, with Bowdoin leading on the last match on. This means that Emory would probably win this one 5-4, but that just goes to show how little the margin of error is between the two teams. Either one of these teams can give CMS or Middlebury a huge favor by tiring out the winner in this one. But it’s all about getting  there, right? I can’t jump off the Emory bandwagon since we’ve gone this far despite some of the weaknesses we saw in today’s match. Coach Browning and the boys will continue on.

NE: I gave a major spoiler alert with my clinch note at line 3, but I like Bowdoin in a repeat upset of the top-seeded Eagles. Call it regional bias, call it homerism, call it bilge, twaddle, or claptrap if you must, but I do believe that Bowdoin is more than capable of winning this match. If they can take a doubles lead, I think they become favored to do so. Bowdoin def. Emory 5-4, and makes it back to the finals!

FIN

And with that, we say goodnight to all you Division III Tennis fans (NE NOTE: D3AS may be saying goodnight, but I’ll be back with D3West with the other semifinal preview shortly). We will be back tomorrow in the morning to tweet about nonsense and get you all ready for the semifinals, which will start at 2 PM ET assuming that there is no rain. However, there could be rain in the forecast which might change this whole thing just a tad bit, but we won’t worry about that until we get there. The four best teams this year are in the Final 4. What more can you ask for? ASouth and NE, OUT.

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