A 10 Year History of the Final 8

It’s been a while…*TANGENT* since Staind has made a good song *BACK TO ARTICLE* since I’ve written a history article and it seems like right before the Elite 8, which happens to be my favorite time of the year, is a good opportunity to get back on track. In this article, I’ll be taking a look at some stats regarding historical Elite 8s as well as the best Elite 8 matches in the 10 years of the blog.

To begin, let’s take a look at number of Elite 8s by team in the 10 year history of The Blog. We will then move to number of semifinal appearances and final appearances. Keep in mind that since we have the quarterfinalists, the first category will have ten possible appearances whereas the second two categories will only have nine possible appearances.

NCAA Quarterfinal Appearances (10 Year History)
10 – Emory, Wash U
9 – CMS, Middlebury
7 – Amherst
6 – Kenyon, Williams
5 – Trinity TX
4 – Johns Hopkins
3 – Bowdoin, Gustavus Adolphus
2 – Chicago
1 – Carnegie Mellon, Case Western, Mary Washington, NC Wesleyan, UC Santa Cruz, Wesleyan

NCAA Semifinal Appearances (9 Year History)
7 – Wash U
5 – Amherst, CMS, Emory, Middlebury
3 – Williams
2 – Chicago
1 – Bowdoin, Kenyon, Trinity TX, UC Santa Cruz

NCAA Final Appearances (9 Year History)
4 – Amherst
3 – CMS, Emory. Middlebury
1 – Bowdoin, Kenyon, UC Santa Cruz, Wash U, Williams

Next, I want to take a look at this year’s quarterfinalists and provide some brief thoughts on each team and where they stand in the big picture of their program. Please refer to the match previews for more in-depth analysis of what you can expect to see at the Elite 8.

Gustavus Adolphus – Making it to the quarterfinals is a huge accomplishment for Gustavus and they are playing with house money right now. As was discussed on the recent VZV Podcast, Gustavus is a team that hasn’t been to the Elite 8 since 2009 and has been knocking on the door of the top 15 for several years now. They haven’t really had that premier win, but they got it against a Chicago team that has beaten them numerous times recently. The key for Gustavus in the quarterfinals is starting hot in doubles, because if they get down against Middlebury at all three spots, things could be over very quickly. As Coach Valentini discussed, they need to avoid the “happy to be there” mentality that haunts many inexperienced Elite 8 participants. If Gustavus can get some doubles momentum, they can hang with the Panthers.

Williams – No one is giving Williams much of a chance in the Quarterfinals, but this is a very good and talented team that has had some rough going since their national title in 2013. I feel as though it’s important for Coach Greenberg to prove that he could get his team back to this point, because for the last three seasons, they really have not been seen as a threat to the nation’s best teams. Beating Amherst twice within a week is a huge step forward for Williams and I think they can now be considered among the nation’s elite just as they were during their run of three consecutive Final Fours at the beginning of this decade.

Wesleyan – I think Wesleyan is a huge wildcard headed into the Quarters. They are the underdog against CMS and one would usually pick the Stags against a first time NCAA participant, but I don’t think this is your average team. I say that because they went on the road to play one of the most dangerous teams you can play in NCAAs and they beat them badly. A few bloggers were picking the Jays and Wesleyan made them look very bad. I think it’s helpful for the Cards they are seeing a team they’ve already faced, and if they somehow get past CMS, they likely play Midd, who they’ve already beaten this season. Like GAC, Wesleyan is playing with house money after the best season in program history and the future looks bright in Middletown.

Wash U – This quarterfinal match against Bowdoin is important for Wash U’s legacy. They are always seen as such a rock, but if they lose on Monday, they will have three quarterfinal losses in four years after making six consecutive Final Fours. While they still have a ton of success and continue to be ranked in the Top 5, that trend has to be a little troubling. I like the Bears to beat Bowdoin and no matter what I will be a believer in this program and their ability to win when the odds are stacked against them. I would love nothing more than to see an Emory-Wash U semifinal, but the Bears have quite a test against Bowdoin first. It’s certainly the most intriguing quarterfinal and a match that I’m really looking forward to.

Bowdoin – I don’t think Bowdoin has much to lose going into this year’s Final 8. The Polar Bears put together a dream run last year and even if they lose Monday, that won’t be forgotten. However, they do have a lot of doubters to prove wrong who are picking Wash U and think last year was kind of a fluke. The most interesting stat riding on this match is that a defending champion hasn’t made it back to the Final Four the following year seven years in a row. Bowdoin could make that eight. They are a wild card, because one thing that could really scare Emory is seeing Bowdoin again in the semifinals.

CMS – The Stags come into this tournament with one of their best ever singles lineups and one of their weakest ever doubles lineups. That said, they have to be very encouraged by their recent sweep of perennial doubles powerhouse Trinity TX. I think CMS is a big favorite in their Quarterfinal and they have the players to beat anyone here. One thing that I don’t love is their results away from home this season. They were beaten by both of the top two seeds on a neutral court and if things end up going indoors due to weather, CMS may be a little out of their element. This is a great program and I always like to see them win. They also have a senior-heavy lineup which will definitely be a plus.

Middlebury – Mid-season, a lot of people thought Midd was the heavy favorite to win the national title. That has changed given a few late season losses, but they still have an excellent chance. Given the finals they made the last two seasons, history is in their favor. Amherst in 2011 and CMS in 2015 both won titles after losing in two consecutive finals. Midd just doesn’t have a lot of weaknesses and they have arguably the nation’s top singles player at the top of the lineup. I think they lucked out a little bit when Chicago lost, but they certainly do not have an easy road forward. After their disappointing loss in the Final last year, you can bet this Hansen-coached team will bring their “A game” to Tennessee.

Emory – The Eagles enter the Final 8 for the 19th consecutive year and they enter as the top seed for the second consecutive year. I think just about everyone expected Emory to win last year, so they have to be very hungry for a title headed into this year’s tournament. The Eagles are probably the favorite, but a lot of that is just based upon history. Emory has a very complete team this year, although the bottom of their lineup has been questioned. I’d say that the Eagles are a fairly heavy favorite to make the Final, but once they get there anything can happen. If they get by the Quarters, Emory will either have to play their primary rival or exorcise some 2016 demons to earn their place in the Final.

Third, I want to revisit this article from last year and look at some historical trends once we’ve reached this point in the season.

http://www.division3tennis.com/look-past-final-fours/

A couple things I’d like to touch on here: First is that a regional #2 seed has never made it to the Final Four, so the odds are stacked against both Williams and Gustavus winning their initial match. That said, the top four seeds have never all reached the semifinals, so history tells us that either Wesleyan or Wash U should win their quarterfinal. One thing going in CMS’ favor is that the #3 overall seed has made the final in four consecutive years and has won their quarterfinal in eight out of nine years. On the flip side of that, the #7 seed has beaten the #2 seed in four consecutive years, but since the #7 seed Chicago is out of the tournament, we can somewhat throw that stat out of the window. The NESCAC has had at least one team in the final seven of the past eight years, with two of those years being all-NESCAC finals. This is the first time ever that the NESCAC has four teams in the Final 8. In nine years, there has only been one #1 vs. #2 final. We’ve never had a team below the #4 seed win nationals and we haven’t had a team lower than the #4 seed make the final since 2010. And lastly as has been mentioned several times, history is against Bowdoin beating Wash U as defending national champions have not done well at this point in the tournament.

Lastly, I want to countdown the Top 10 matches of the past 10 years in the Quarterfinals and beyond. I will give a little historical context for each:

10) 2014 SF: Amherst d. Trinity TX 5-3
Match Recap
This was likely the toughest match of the “Jeffs” run to the NCAA title in 2014. Trinity TX put a beating on a very good Wash U team the previous day and came out of the gates hot against favored Amherst, sweeping doubles including two 9-8s. After Trinity took three first sets and got an additional split, it looked like they were going to be taking on CMS in the Final. However, Amherst picked up their level and somehow managed to win five close singles matches, including three 3-setters to top the Tigers in Trinity’s best season in recent memory. Amherst would go on to beat CMS 5-3 at Bisantz the next day.

9) 2012 SF: Emory d. Williams 5-4
Box Score
To set the stage, Emory had entered the Final 8 undefeated as the #2 overall seed. With Amherst’s exit the previous day, it was Emory’s tournament to win. After this match was about half way finished, Kenyon had beaten Wash U to move into the final. It is worth noting that the Eagles had already beaten Kenyon easily two times this season, so it was really Emory’s title for the taking. Pottish and Goodwin were seniors and Emory had freshmen at 3-6 singles. The Eagles took a 2-1 doubles lead and had two quick singles wins before Williams started their comeback. Williams slowly brought the match back to 4-4 which included losses by both Emory seniors, however they were bailed out at #4 singles and hung on to advance to the Final the next day where they would defeat Kenyon.

8) 2008 F: Wash U d. Emory 5-3
Box Score
Unfortunately, we’ve actually had mostly dud finals, with this match probably being the closest final in recent memory. The 2012 and 2014 finals also had drama, but not enough to make this list. I have talked about this match in previous articles, but it took the Emory-Wash U rivalry to a new level. The Bears had never been to the semifinals before and the broke through for an NCAA title. Despite six other semifinal appearances in the last nine years, this is still the only final appearance for Wash U.

7) 2015 QF: Chicago d. Amherst 5-4
Box Score
Before the 2015 season, Chicago brought in arguably the best recruiting class in the history of D3. They were starting four freshmen and not many D3 experts knew what to expect. They came into their first ever NCAA quarterfinal as the #7 overall seed and were taking on an Amherst team that was seeded #2 and beat eventual finalist Middlebury 9-0 just a few weeks prior. I also can’t explain in words how ridiculous this day of tennis was with the facility fiasco in Cincy. I wish I could find some old tweets from D3AS. Herst took a 2-1 lead and there were multiple close 3-set matches, however this came down to a cramping David Liu at #6 singles who played late into the night and won the clincher 6-3 in the 3rd to send the Maroons to their first ever semifinal.

6) 2016 SF: Bowdoin d. Emory 5-4
Box Score
In their first ever Final Four, Bowdoin was taking on #1 seed and undefeated Emory, who looked like they were going to roll to the national title. It was, up to that point, probably the most shocking result of 2016. Bowdoin would provide us with an equally large surprise in the Final with an anticlimactic 5-0 against conference foe Middlebury. The thing that makes this match remarkable is that no one saw it coming. Bowdoin struggled with Hopkins the previous day and after Emory took a 2-1 doubles lead, everyone figured their lights out singles lineup would put this away easily. Several Bowdoin players came up huge and pulled upsets to propel the Polar Bears to a 5-4 victory with senior Luke Trinka getting the clincher.

5) 2016 QF: Bowdoin d. Johns Hopkins 5-4
Box Score
This match is fresh in everyone’s mind and set off an unbelievable run to the national title by the Polar Bears. It was the predecessor to #6 on this list and likely the best match of a 2016 season that had a lot of fireworks. Hopkins swept doubles and got a win from MVP to put them on the brink of victory. Bowdoin slowly clawed back and Jerry Jiang saved a match point at #4 singles. The Polar Bears somehow got a miraculous win in one of the most drama-filled Quarterfinals that we’ve ever seen. The rest is history as we know, but Bowdoin was extremely lucky to get by a Hopkins team that was playing in their 3rd consecutive quarterfinal.

4) 2010 QF: Amherst d. Emory 5-4
Box Score
This is another one of the more memorable matches for me because of how unbelievable the result was. Setting the stage for this match, Emory came into NCAAs as UAA champions and #2 seed. Defending national finalist Amherst came in as #7 seed and a huge underdog. Emory swept the doubles and had Pottish/Goodwin at the top two singles spots, neither of whom had lost a match all season. The Eagles took three first sets to put them in the driver’s seat. Amherst slowly began their comeback, earning splits at all three positions. They won three 3-setters as well a close two set victory for Chafetz over Pottish. Herst managed to beat Goodwin as well and got the clincher from Koenig in a 3rd set breaker. They would move on to face CMS the next day…

3) 2010 SF: Amherst d. CMS 5-4
Box Score
At this point, Amherst was a team that could pull off miracles. They made the 2009 Final that no one saw coming and had dug out of an unimaginable hole the previous day against Emory. They took a 2-1 doubles lead against #3 overall seed CMS and then singles got very tight. This was really the start of a several year rough patch for CMS in NCAAs, as Koenig provided the clincher for Herst for the second day in a row. In the process of doing so, he saved seven match points at #3 singles and Amherst also won a 3-setter at #4. The Jeffs would go on to lose to Middlebury the following day, but would win nationals in 2011. You’ll see what happened to CMS in 2011 in just a few minutes.

2) 2012 QF: Wash U d. Amherst 5-3
Box Score
This is, without a doubt in my mind, the biggest NCAA upset during The Blog’s history. In my pre-match preview, I wrote something along the lines of “If everything goes perfectly for Wash U, they will lose 5-3.” The Bears had played poor doubles for the entire season and this Amherst team looked untouchable and ready for an easy repeat after their 2011 national title. Wash U jumped out to early leads on every doubles court and held on for a sweep. Despite my doubts that they could win, the Bears managed to hold off an Amherst charge for two singles wins with Adam Putterman delivering the clincher at #1. This match was very historically significant for me because it threw the 2012 Final 8, which happens to be my favorite year, into complete chaos. It also caused me to never doubt Wash U, no matter how dire the circumstances look. And lastly, it extended the streak of defending national champions not making the Final Four which is still going today.

1) 2011 QF: Williams d. CMS 5-4
Box Score
I’m not sure if the word “epic” does this match justice. This was the first of three consecutive Final Four appearances for Williams and how they got here was nothing short of miraculous. The match was excellent all around and singles were fairly tight with three 3-setters after Williams took a 2-1 doubles lead. The year before in the Final Four against Amherst (#3 on this list), CMS had been unable to capitalize on seven match points that would have sent them to the Final. Well sure enough, CMS had seven more match points in this match to beat Williams and qualify for the Final Four. In my mind, this will always be known as the “Bryan Chow Match” given that he saved those seven match points and won the clincher at 11-9 in a 3rd set tiebreaker. To begin the match, the NCAA did not have the deciding #5 singles match as one of their live streaming courts, but their AV team successfully moved the cameras to this court when the overall match was tied 4-4. This match ended just short of 11pm PST, which I’m sure is the latest finish in NCAA D3 history. Oh, I also forgot to mention that CMS was hosting NCAAs this year as the #3 overall seed and this was an upset not many saw coming.