10 Burning Questions on the Individual Tourney

Well the team tournament wraps up today in what I hope is at least a good match. While it seems the entire blog is pulling for CMS to finally pull out the big one, I at least would like to see some drama and I think we will get a little. I wanted to direct our attention to tomorrow’s individual tournament because it should bring a lot of excitement with so many teams represented. Unfortunately (as of 10 AM this morning) there has yet to be a draw released which sucks so I am going to write a bit about the qualifiers and not the match-ups that we will see in the first round. I am going to stick with talking about singles as doubles gets a bit crazy. I’d give you a link if there was one published yet, but there isn’t. Here are my 10 questions I hope to have answered in the next few days:

1. Will Warren Wood prove he is the best player in Division 3 tennis?

Warren Wood has been in this conversation for his entire career. There is no doubt he is one of if not THE best player in Division 3 tennis. He has dominated both singles and doubles throughout the last few years, but always fell a bit short in the end both in the team tourney and individuals. I think Wood might be a man possessed this go around hopefully coming in with the high of winning the whole thing with his teammates, he should fare well. My biggest concern and I will take about this further in a minutes, is fatigue. Wood will have played three team matches (singles/doubles in both) and should make deep runs in both singles and doubles with Dorn in individuals. So if he were to make it to the finals of both, Wood will have played 8 singles matches and 8 doubles matches in 6 days. That is a whole lot of tennis to be played at a high level. It has been done before and I believe Seebarger was the last to do so.

2. Can Nicolas Chua add another national championship to his already impressive freshman year?

Mid-season I was a bit worried that Chua was having a bit of a let down, but that was only because we gave him such high expectations to live up to after his impressive fall ITA national championship. After watching him this week, my faith is invigorated in him. All it took was to see more and more of those huge backhand winners to change my mind. Chua beat Yaraghi in 3 and was up on Smolyer who are the best of the NE. Like Wood, Chua will have played a lot of tennis, but not being in the doubles draw will help his body recover if he gets through day 1. He is definitely a favorite to win this tourney and I think he will make it at least to the semis.

3. Who (if anyone) can make a deep run in both the singles and doubles draw?

Krimbill (Case), Wood (CMS), Reid (Colby), Ruderman (Emory), Carey (Mary Washington), Kjellberg (NC Wes), Hudson (Pomona), Lipscomb (Redlands), and Putterman (Wash U) are all players who are in both the singles and doubles draw. I will refrain from giving Warren Wood too much press as he is probably the most likely to go furthest in both. Krimbill is the defending national doubles champion, but his path really is determined by his partner Louis Stuerke. If Stuerke plays up to his capabilities, they will do well. If he goes missing, then they will have an early exit. Hudson and Kjellberg would be my next two choices to make it far in both draws.

4. Who are the dark horses?

I think there are a couple of guys who are under the radar solely because their teams didn’t make it to the Elite 8. Chris Krimbill and Robert Kjellberg are huge forces to be reckoned with and have a great chance of winning the whole thing. By no means am I calling them complete dark horses, but they are probably a bit forgotten with all of the team coverage we have had. A true dark horse is tough to pick because all of these guys are good, but I have to go with Matt Heinrich as my choice. Heinrich has some HUGE wins on his resume including both Krull and Buxbaum at the fall nationals. In the spring, he took out Krimbill from Case. He has two losses to Leung from Skidmore and Humphreys from Whitewater also took him out relatively easily, but it seems the Heinrich Maneuver comes out when he plays his biggest opponents. If he has a good draw (still waiting), then he could do well here.

5. Which region will reign supreme?

We constantly are talking about who has the best region between bloggers because it’s fun and gives us each a little pride. The way I look at is which region has the most contenders for a national title? After looking at the qualifiers, I can’t believe I am saying this, but I feel like the ASouth has the most potential. The top 4 guys of Buxbaum, Kjellberg, Ruderman, and Alla are a core of guys who all could win it. It’s funny to me because I honestly think the ASouth is the weakest region of the four in terms of depth of teams (Central being a close third), but they have some standouts for individuals. I would put the West in second as they have all 8 guys who could easily go a few rounds in with Wood and Krull being their best chance to win it. They are easily the deepest region with their qualifiers. The central region has only two big time contenders in my opinion with Krimbill and Chua. Finally the Northeast has a good representation, but I don’t see Smolyer or Yaraghi (their top two) as favorites. Both should win a round or two, but not win the whole thing (in my opinion).

6. Will fatigue play a role for CMS, Middlebury, Wash U, and Chicago players?

I think we would be naive to think that it won’t play a factor. I am talking about both mental fatigue and physical fatigue. These players have played three very important and emotionally draining team matches and now have to make the transition into playing multiple matches in each of the first two days. They basically are playing in a 128 player draw with the first three rounds being the team tourney. It will be very interesting to see how they handle this mental and physical roller coaster.

7. Who has the best draw of the seeded players?

Goodness, the draw just came out and there are some crazy first round matches so it’s hard to pick who got a great one. Everyone is good so I will just say who got the best draw for the first two rounds. I think the bottom half of the draw has the easier match-ups with Krimbill and Kjellberg benefiting the most. Krimbill plays Halpern who got absolutely wrecked by Putterman and then would play either Carl Reid and Lipscomb. Lipscomb is a stud too so that is not easy. Kjellberg has a dangerous Cardenas first, but then would get either Carswell or Liu in the second round. I would like either of those if I were him. Of course they would then play each other (Krimbill and Kjellberg that is) if they advance. The best overall draw has to go to Adam Krull from Trinity as he plays Humphreys first and then the winner of Antonio and Leung. Those are all very winnable matches.

8. Who has the worst draw of the seeded players?

Chua playing Butts in the first round is an absolute shame because both are capable of winning it. That one could be an awesome match. Ruderman got screwed a bit too as he plays a tricky player in Sprinkel from Coe and then likely Wood from CMS. The toughest group of 4 players is probably Yaraghi vs.Heerboth and then Alla vs. Malesovas. Who am I kidding…the entire draw is filled with talent so no one has it easy!

9. Will they play the final on the big ATP court?

I really hope they do because how cool would it be to say you won a national title on the same court that Roger Federer, Novak Djokvic, and Rafael Nadal have played. So far that hasn’t been a video court so it looks likely that one of the smaller show courts will be where it happens, but I am keeping my fingers crossed that they make this happen.

10. Who am I rooting for?

We try to be as unbiased as possible when reporting on things minus backing our own region, but we all have hopes and wishes to who we want to win. In singles, I would love to see someone come out of nowhere to at least make the final, but that rarely happens. I fully believe that Warren Wood wins the singles draw, but I will be rooting for Connor Hudson (Chuddy!). Hudson is just a hard working senior who has surprised me this year with his big match wins. I just wonder if he will do as well without his teammates energy there to help him out not to mention he drew Buxbaum in the first round. In doubles, I am not even going to try and guess a winner, but how can you not root for the Texas Tyler duo and Old Man Wooten? He has already said that he would take a picture with national champion trophy in hand while wearing a blog shirt. If that doesn’t get you behind him, then I don’t know what will.

4 thoughts on “10 Burning Questions on the Individual Tourney

  1. D3Fan

    Agreed — I meant upset in the sense of a player with a lower UTR beating a player with a higher UTR, not in the sense of an official UTR upset.

    I know UTR isn’t perfect (and it will be interesting to see what happens with Hull next year), but to call 13/16 matches correctly (and to be very close on #14) seems to me to be highly statistically significant, especially when the differences are so small on many of those pairings.

    1. D3 Northeast

      13/16 would have been leading the bracket challenge!

  2. D3Fan

    Interesting statistic: 13 of the 16 first round matches in singles were won by the player with the higher UTR.

    One of the three that didn’t was Heinrich (12.54) vs. Putterman (12.56), which was almost a push.

    The other two were Humphreys (12.06) vs. Krull (12.73) and Cardenas (12.55) vs. Kjellberg (12.86). According to UTR, those were the only two real upsets.

    1. Anon

      Keep in mind that UTR only considers a match an upset when the UTR differential is greater than 1. Doesn’t mean that Humphreys beating Krull isn’t an upset, but it’s something to keep in mind when using the UTR ratings.

      While we’re on the subject, just wanted to point out that Glenn Hull now has the highest 100%-reliable UTR in D3. I’m down to play #6, too, if it’ll make me that good

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